Flyman75

Mike Minor 2019 Outlook

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Needs his own thread. Not a terrible season last year, and he’s off to a solid start this year. He kinda feels like a poor man’s Kyle Hendricks...k/9 won’t wow you, good WHIP below 1.20, keeps the walks down. But, his FIP last year and this are pretty high, and he allows too many HR, especially in his home ballpark. 

He had a rough first start against Chicago, but pitched well at home against Houston and then against Arizona. Depending on league size and depth, however, he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. 

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On 4/13/2019 at 6:17 PM, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Picked him up for his start Monday vs halos (hopefully without mike)

got the Astros and mariners after that though..may be a one start deal for me monday

 

Can’t cut him now.

congrats Mike on the second complete game thrown in the majors this year (you surely will have more than a handful of teams in 2019 now)

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3 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Can’t cut him now.

Why not? Isn't the point of a streamer is you pick up and play a guy you think will do well? Do you hold onto every streamer that has a good outing? I'm not opposed to holding onto this guy depending on your league/roster, but I don't see any significant upside. He seems like a guy I'd be happy to play in certain matchups, but far from an every week starter. That's a streamer. Streamers get cut. I'm happy I played him today but in most of my leagues he's heading back to the waiver after today's performance.

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6 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why not? Isn't the point of a streamer is you pick up and play a guy you think will do well? Do you hold onto every streamer that has a good outing? I'm not opposed to holding onto this guy depending on your league/roster, but I don't see any significant upside. He seems like a guy I'd be happy to play in certain matchups, but far from an every week starter. That's a streamer. Streamers get cut. I'm happy I played him today but in most of my leagues he's heading back to the waiver after today's performance.

 

Well I don’t see what he has done over the past year that makes him worthy of being on the wire. WHIP under 1.15, K:bb around 3.50, and pretty consistent start to start.  Maybe it’s because I’m ina 16 team league but there is nothing about Minor I don’t like owning 

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5 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Why not? Isn't the point of a streamer is you pick up and play a guy you think will do well? Do you hold onto every streamer that has a good outing? I'm not opposed to holding onto this guy depending on your league/roster, but I don't see any significant upside. He seems like a guy I'd be happy to play in certain matchups, but far from an every week starter. That's a streamer. Streamers get cut. I'm happy I played him today but in most of my leagues he's heading back to the waiver after today's performance.

 

Yes...but...he is on a hot streak right now. He had a good season once with Atlanta, so maybe he's just recapturing some old magic. And he wasn't awful last year in Texas.

In his last three starts, he's gone 23 innings, allowing only 2 ER and 19 baserunners. 

So maybe he's becoming more than a streamer...sometimes streamers do that. 

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yes...but...he is on a hot streak right now. He had a good season once with Atlanta, so maybe he's just recapturing some old magic. And he wasn't awful last year in Texas.

In his last three starts, he's gone 23 innings, allowing only 2 ER and 19 baserunners. 

So maybe he's becoming more than a streamer...sometimes streamers do that. 

 

He really was only ever bad one season (2015).  He is basically a very quality lefty and once he proved he was healthy should have been owned in my opinion 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

 

Yes...but...he is on a hot streak right now. He had a good season once with Atlanta, so maybe he's just recapturing some old magic. And he wasn't awful last year in Texas.

In his last three starts, he's gone 23 innings, allowing only 2 ER and 19 baserunners. 

So maybe he's becoming more than a streamer...sometimes streamers do that. 

I'm not able to predict when a hot streak will start or stop. Are you? Do you have any data or public track record of being able to do predict hot streak end points before they happen?

Sure, maybe he's become more. That definitely happens sometimes. And I'm not denying players go on hot streaks. In some of my leagues I'm definitely holding onto him. But in standard leagues? Even in today's gem he had a 4.20 xfip with a 158 babip and 100% of runners left on base. He doesn't have any proven track record of beating the peripherals (his career era and xfip are virtually identical). For the season he isn't getting a bunch of swinging strikes. His k-bb numbers aren't special. I feel weird attacking a guy I just streamed, but I just don't see why there's anything special here. He looks like a solid arm who faced a pathetic offense. I don't think we're appreciating how lousy today's lineup was. Their number 3, 4, and 5 hitters have a combined wRC+ of 193. It's Trout and a pile of crap that even the Marlins would scoff at.

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8 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm not able to predict when a hot streak will start or stop. Are you? Do you have any data or public track record of being able to do predict hot streak end points before they happen?

Sure, maybe he's become more. That definitely happens sometimes. And I'm not denying players go on hot streaks. In some of my leagues I'm definitely holding onto him. But in standard leagues? Even in today's gem he had a 4.20 xfip with a 158 babip and 100% of runners left on base. He doesn't have any proven track record of beating the peripherals (his career era and xfip are virtually identical). For the season he isn't getting a bunch of swinging strikes. His k-bb numbers aren't special. I feel weird attacking a guy I just streamed, but I just don't see why there's anything special here. He looks like a solid arm who faced a pathetic offense. I don't think we're appreciating how lousy today's lineup was. Their number 3, 4, and 5 hitters have a combined wRC+ of 193. It's Trout and a pile of crap that even the Marlins would scoff at.

 

Let’s put numbers on it since we may be saying similar things. I’d rank him around #50 in pitchers I trust the most 

my league does count K:bb where he is above average so that helps. 

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13 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm not able to predict when a hot streak will start or stop. Are you? Do you have any data or public track record of being able to do predict hot streak end points before they happen?

Sure, maybe he's become more. That definitely happens sometimes. And I'm not denying players go on hot streaks. In some of my leagues I'm definitely holding onto him. But in standard leagues? Even in today's gem he had a 4.20 xfip with a 158 babip and 100% of runners left on base. He doesn't have any proven track record of beating the peripherals (his career era and xfip are virtually identical). For the season he isn't getting a bunch of swinging strikes. His k-bb numbers aren't special. I feel weird attacking a guy I just streamed, but I just don't see why there's anything special here. He looks like a solid arm who faced a pathetic offense. I don't think we're appreciating how lousy today's lineup was. Their number 3, 4, and 5 hitters have a combined wRC+ of 193. It's Trout and a pile of crap that even the Marlins would scoff at.

 

When did I say anything about predicting a hot streak? No need to put words in my mouth or as a ridiculous question (ie, asking if I have data to predict a hot streak before it happens...c'mon now). I simply said he's on a heater right now, so it's not unreasonable to hold him while he's pitching this well. And maybe it holds. He did have a 1.11 WHIP across 384 innings in 2012-13 and had a 1.12 WHIP in 157 innings last year. Had a great WHIP in 2017, but it was as a RP after coming off of two missed seasons.

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27 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

He really was only ever bad one season (2015).  He is basically a very quality lefty and once he proved he was healthy should have been owned in my opinion 

 

His first two partial seasons in Atlanta were pretty bad, and his 2014 was pretty bad. He didn't pitch in 2015 (or in 2016...at least in the Majors). 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

His first two partial seasons in Atlanta were pretty bad, and his 2014 was pretty bad. He didn't pitch in 2015 (or in 2016...at least in the Majors). 

 Oh yeah I guess I misread the year: 2014 was the bad year my bad. I just feel since he has been established he has been very reliable aside from that bad year (which I’m guessing he was pitching hurt before the injury that derailed two full years).  Thanks for the correction 

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I guess it's all relative as I don't see his 11-13 seasons as bad at all for a young lefty breaking into the game.

Got hurt in 14, missed all of 15 and worked his way back to the bigs by 17 where he pitched pretty capably as a reliever.

Converted back to a starter in 18 and again comported himself pretty dang well. 

Guy was once a top prospect and was rounding into form before he got hurt. Seems to be working his way back to a pretty capable player again. 

Edited by treat88
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13 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

When did I say anything about predicting a hot streak? No need to put words in my mouth or as a ridiculous question (ie, asking if I have data to predict a hot streak before it happens...c'mon now). I simply said he's on a heater right now, so it's not unreasonable to hold him while he's pitching this well. And maybe it holds. He did have a 1.11 WHIP across 384 innings in 2012-13 and had a 1.12 WHIP in 157 innings last year. Had a great WHIP in 2017, but it was as a RP after coming off of two missed seasons.

Okay, fair enough. Apologies if I'm misunderstanding. If you'd holding onto a guy because they're in the midst of a hot streak, isn't it because you think the hot streak will continue? 

 

Top 50 seems a touch ambitious for me, but not egregiously so. That definitely has value and I'm not trying to argue he's trash. 

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4 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Okay, fair enough. Apologies if I'm misunderstanding. If you'd holding onto a guy because they're in the midst of a hot streak, isn't it because you think the hot streak will continue? 

 

Top 50 seems a touch ambitious for me, but not egregiously so. That definitely has value and I'm not trying to argue he's trash. 

 

I think you see how far it goes. Maybe sit the hot player if there's an unappealing matchup and see what happens. Maybe it is just a heater that burns out...or maybe it turns into a good, rosterable season. 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I think you see how far it goes. Maybe sit the hot player if there's an unappealing matchup and see what happens. Maybe it is just a heater that burns out...or maybe it turns into a good, rosterable season. 

Okay, that I understand. I've definitely done that with some players. Usually younger guys, but not always. I don't think Minor is going to break out, but I might be wrong about the value he's going to offer moving forward. Best of luck.

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47 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

Gem tonight    Top 30  Sp2/Sp3 ?

Fastball touched 94/95

Strangely given his park and rumored interest from NL teams like the Phillies, I almost feel like value would go down with move to NL.  AL has so many mediocre lineups/nice-neutral pitching parks.  He’ll inevitably be on move at some point as he’s a great chip for a rebuilding club.  Although credit to Rangers they’re playing solid so far.

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DAFUQ?

Will be putting a sizable FAAB bid on him.  Always liked him but not sure about durability.

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1 hour ago, jbarretta said:

Top 4 in spin rate on 4 seamer with Cole and Max

 

Breakout  top 25 sp

 

Is this new? I always liked Minor and owned him last year and drafted him again expecting a top 50 pitcher return, not an ace. Is there something appreciably different than last year?

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Starting, he’s proven to be very good this year. Boston is in a minor slump and should be without JD. Chavis is also slumping , Benintendi can’t hit lefties

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