Fantasy Dork

Hunter Dozier 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, radioflyer9 said:

I would expect him back Friday, they have an early game tomorrow and off Thursday. 

good call...

 

 
by RotoWire Staff
(9 mins ago) Dozier (back) is available only in an emergency for both Tuesday and Wednesday's games against the Rays, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports.

Dozier has been dealing with minor back issues for a few days, causing him to leave Monday's game early. The Royals hope to give him three full days of rest, including Thursday's off day, before bringing him back into the lineup Friday against the Angels.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just read an article suggesting this guy is a complete mirage and will crash and burn in just a matter of time.  I don't know a whole lot about him other than he's a former top draft pick who may be finally putting it together. I know his BB/K rate looks good and that's normally a pretty good indicator of someone who's figuring things out at the plate.

The article did cite a number of advanced metrics to make it's case, but I don't know.  Just curious to other's opinions who know more about him than I do?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

I just read an article suggesting this guy is a complete mirage and will crash and burn in just a matter of time.  I don't know a whole lot about him other than he's a former top draft pick who may be finally putting it together. I know his BB/K rate looks good and that's normally a pretty good indicator of someone who's figuring things out at the plate.

The article did cite a number of advanced metrics to make it's case, but I don't know.  Just curious to other's opinions who know more about him than I do?

 

Link?  All of his underlying metrics show this is pretty legit.

BB% 15.1% (+9% from '18)

K% 19.8% (-9% from '18)

Hard% 47.3%

SwStr% 8.4% (-4.6% from '18)

 

 

Edited by sportsfreak2744
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

I just read an article suggesting this guy is a complete mirage and will crash and burn in just a matter of time.  I don't know a whole lot about him other than he's a former top draft pick who may be finally putting it together. I know his BB/K rate looks good and that's normally a pretty good indicator of someone who's figuring things out at the plate.

The article did cite a number of advanced metrics to make it's case, but I don't know.  Just curious to other's opinions who know more about him than I do?

 

He’s basically free. No reason to not take a chance on a former 1st round talent. Ride it until the wheels fall off.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

I just read an article suggesting this guy is a complete mirage and will crash and burn in just a matter of time.  I don't know a whole lot about him other than he's a former top draft pick who may be finally putting it together. I know his BB/K rate looks good and that's normally a pretty good indicator of someone who's figuring things out at the plate.

The article did cite a number of advanced metrics to make it's case, but I don't know.  Just curious to other's opinions who know more about him than I do?

 

link it

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

He’s basically free. No reason to not take a chance on a former 1st round talent. Ride it until the wheels fall off.

That's definitely the approach I'll take, I was just hoping he was truly breaking out. Obviously only time will tell, but I'd read nothing but positive things about him until reading the article I linked above.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

 

"Likewise, Dozier has no history of big-time power numbers."

 

"Most problematically, only two of his seven homers have come in his pitcher-friendly home park despite having 46 of 86 PAs there. If Dozier can't tame Kauffman Stadium, he can't be a true power guy."

 

"Dozier has an extensive minor league track record that also argues against his fantasy relevance."

 

--->  The author essentially is blindly betting against him because of his track history alone.  With how many players we've seen dramatically make changes and become stars thanks to improved data, technology and coaching it's foolish to write this off as fluke just because the guy "hasn't done it before."  

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

"Likewise, Dozier has no history of big-time power numbers."

 

"Most problematically, only two of his seven homers have come in his pitcher-friendly home park despite having 46 of 86 PAs there. If Dozier can't tame Kauffman Stadium, he can't be a true power guy."

 

"Dozier has an extensive minor league track record that also argues against his fantasy relevance."

 

--->  The author essentially is blindly betting against him because of his track history alone.  With how many players we've seen dramatically make changes and become stars thanks to improved data, technology and coaching it's foolish to write this off as fluke just because the guy "hasn't done it before."  

i never understood this nonsense.

"he didnt hit homeruns when he was 19 so he wont hit them when hes 26 hurr durrr"

im not saying hes hitting 35 homeruns, but he wouldnt be the first player who breaks out around age 26 or 27.  just look at his teamate whit merrifield

Edited by jfazz23
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly, I scooped Merrifield before anyone believed, he was a keeper, and I flipped him for in-season push last year with great success. Dozier is still probably 2:1 favorite to be more flash in the pan than studly, but that doesn't matter at all. The easy early pickings are long gone in my league, so it's time to be a little more patient as the early advanced stats have already begun firming up. The risk you drop him, he keeps producing, and you never get him back in a tough league is just too high for my taste.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

"Likewise, Dozier has no history of big-time power numbers."

 

"Most problematically, only two of his seven homers have come in his pitcher-friendly home park despite having 46 of 86 PAs there. If Dozier can't tame Kauffman Stadium, he can't be a true power guy."

 

"Dozier has an extensive minor league track record that also argues against his fantasy relevance."

 

--->  The author essentially is blindly betting against him because of his track history alone.  With how many players we've seen dramatically make changes and become stars thanks to improved data, technology and coaching it's foolish to write this off as fluke just because the guy "hasn't done it before."  

 

 

Pretty small sample to make any judgements about the home and road splits isn't it? We are talking about 86 PA's. If you had 500 to back up the claim it would be a little more meaningful. Former top prospect that has teased at times and followed it up with struggles or injuries. Not betting much money on this guy, but def up for taking the ride. He wouldn't be the first guy to surprise us and become a good fantasy bat. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like others have said, maybe Dozier will drop off at some point, but to say it will definitely happen is just plain ridiculous.  If I've learned anything over the last season or so, it's that you definitely can't predict everything.  Dozier is hitting good, has the stats to back it up, so it would be stupid not to see where it goes and not worry otherwise.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He made some good points about his BABIP likely wont be anywhere near above average.

Just really weird to make a bunch of points about his SSS data towards his batting average/BABIP risk. Then turn around and say you don't buy the power based on track record. He just changed his argument mid article to fit his narrative. 

"This 49% FB rate is red flag towards his BABIP, but means little his HR potential"  Like..what?

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but does anyone else think that if he keeps it up, he could approach something like a .300/.400/.500 line? (Something around what we're expecting from Anthony Rendon)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not throwing my opinion out there as I just want to sit back and enjoy, but I will definitely say one thing...  I think that back is just fine...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been saying all year long this guy looks like a stud now. Barelling up everything in sight, and his plate discipline has taken a huge upturn too.

Everything is pointing straight up from last year, including his fantasy owners. There are always WW gems to emerge each year, he looks like the next Muncy.

This article actually came out from even before his hot streak started this year. Man how on point it was:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/4/10/18304151/hunter-dozier-kansas-city-royals-statcast-improvement-exit-velocity

Edited by swfcdan
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First and Third Base eligibility to boot.  Only downside with Dozier is the surrounding lineup isn't exactly top shelf, which hurts his RBI and Run scoring opportunities.  Any comps though for Dozier?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Magnus88 said:

First and Third Base eligibility to boot.  Only downside with Dozier is the surrounding lineup isn't exactly top shelf, which hurts his RBI and Run scoring opportunities.  Any comps though for Dozier?

 

Whit, Mondesi, Gordon (current form) ahead of him is great for RBI opportunities. Whit and Mondesi will steal themselves into scoring position. It's behind him where it gets pretty ugly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.