Fantasy Dork

Hunter Dozier 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Just curious is Dozier a sell high or are we keeping him rest of season?

 

keep def unless you get a for sure top 100 player IMO

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40 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Just curious is Dozier a sell high or are we keeping him rest of season?

Top 100 is selling him short, I say top 75 player for sure. 

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Keep it up guys as I am looking to sell...top 50!!!

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I think he keeps it up. His underlying numbers are really strong. It still haunts me to have dropped him to stream an SP earlier on this year.

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30 minutes ago, djmax101 said:

I think he keeps it up. His underlying numbers are really strong. It still haunts me to have dropped him to stream an SP earlier on this year.

Any idea where he will potentially be drafted next year?

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Regression for sure - [Removed Cool Story] but a Batted Ball in play of .419 is completely over his head ... league avg .270ish - the JD Martinez’s, and Trouts around 325ish I believe... I

Edited by tonycpsu

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36 minutes ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

Regression for sure - [Removed Cool Story] but a Batted Ball in play of .419 is completely over his head ... league avg .270ish - the JD Martinez’s, and Trouts around 325ish I believe... I

 

I paid literally nothing for him. This is all icing on the cake. We know he isn’t this good, but right he’s this good. 

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1 hour ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

Regression for sure - [Removed Cool Story] but a Batted Ball in play of .419 is completely over his head ... league avg .270ish - the JD Martinez’s, and Trouts around 325ish I believe... I

 

 A little confused where you got that .419 number. FanGraphs shows .373. Also confused where you got the league average of .270ish. Last year among qualified hitters it was .303, in 2017 it was .306, and in 2016 it was .307. My understanding (and the data) says a nice clean .300 is league average.

He's top 6% in exit velocity. He's currently 7th in the MLB in Soft% at 8.7% 1-6 are (C. Walker (!), Carp, Cruz, Turner, JD, and Gallo). 

Doubtful he has a .373+ BABIP at season end but the way he is murdering the ball .320 - .330 is not out to the question leaving him around a .300 average by math in my head. 

I'd be trying to buy high on him from anyone that doesn't believe. 

He's a completely different hitter this year:

"He’s gone from a below league-average hitter to an above average hitter seemingly overnight, making vast improvements in O-Swing % (-11.8%), Contact % (+4.2) and swinging strike rate (-4.6%) while swinging at fewer pitches overall. Since swing rates are among the fastest metrics to stabilize for batters, it’s not a stretch to say Dozier is a completely different hitter. His current walk rate of 15.1% is among the league’s top 25 batters, sandwiched between OBP-league stalwarts Michael Conforto and Anthony Rizzo. This plate patience isn’t just resulting in fewer strikeouts and extra walks, it’s what’s driving his ability to hit for average and power."

-https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-hunter-dozier-is-tapping-into-his-killer-instinct/ (fantastic read!)

Edited by Fenamo
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9 hours ago, Fenamo said:

 

 A little confused where you got that .419 number. FanGraphs shows .373. Also confused where you got the league average of .270ish. Last year among qualified hitters it was .303, in 2017 it was .306, and in 2016 it was .307. My understanding (and the data) says a nice clean .300 is league average.

He's top 6% in exit velocity. He's currently 7th in the MLB in Soft% at 8.7% 1-6 are (C. Walker (!), Carp, Cruz, Turner, JD, and Gallo). 

Doubtful he has a .373+ BABIP at season end but the way he is murdering the ball .320 - .330 is not out to the question leaving him around a .300 average by math in my head. 

I'd be trying to buy high on him from anyone that doesn't believe. 

He's a completely different hitter this year:

"He’s gone from a below league-average hitter to an above average hitter seemingly overnight, making vast improvements in O-Swing % (-11.8%), Contact % (+4.2) and swinging strike rate (-4.6%) while swinging at fewer pitches overall. Since swing rates are among the fastest metrics to stabilize for batters, it’s not a stretch to say Dozier is a completely different hitter. His current walk rate of 15.1% is among the league’s top 25 batters, sandwiched between OBP-league stalwarts Michael Conforto and Anthony Rizzo. This plate patience isn’t just resulting in fewer strikeouts and extra walks, it’s what’s driving his ability to hit for average and power."

-https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-hunter-dozier-is-tapping-into-his-killer-instinct/ (fantastic read!)

The 400 # was at the point I sold 10 days ago- kids good/legit but he ain’t prime “JD or mookie like” his counting stats will only 📉 - not continue that’s basically what I’m saying 👍🏽 

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17 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

Just curious is Dozier a sell high or are we keeping him rest of season?

My gut says hold. 

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The batted ball profile is very impressive. Soft contact% is 8%!  47% hard hit. ZERO popups so far.

This ain't some dude with 3 walks and 30Ks hitting .340.

Yeah he will have a slump here and there, but as long as the power numbers are there, this is a kind of player who wins you leagues.

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Regarding the Nicky Diaz call up. Is this some kind of sick joke? 

 

 

Lopez will have his contract selected from Triple-A Omaha prior to Tuesday's game against the Rangers.

ANALYSIS

According to Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, Lopez will immediately step in as the Royals' primary second baseman, pushing Whit Merrifield to the outfield as a result and potentially moving Hunter Dozier and Kelvin Guttierez into a platoon at third base. The promotion is warranted, as the well-regarded prospect is slashing .353/.457/.500 with a trio of homers and nine stolen bases through 31 games with Triple-A Omaha this season. Jake Newberry was optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move, while a 40-man move will be announced prior to Tuesday's series opener.

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Dozier is hitting like prime Josh Donaldson i.e. MVP level.

Top #9 WAR, #6 Offensive WAR, #4 wOBA (behind Belli, NLMVP, and '17WSMVP), #4 Z-Contact%, and #7 OPS. 

He's likelier to be the AL MVP than be in a platoon situation while hitting like this.

 

 

 

Edited by Fenamo
'spect for Springer
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1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

... potentially moving Hunter Dozier and Kelvin Guttierez into a platoon at third base... 

That is neither hangin nor wangin. 

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I dunno why they would put him in a platoon. that is why when you have players who are not established veterans you always have to been watching for the next player to add if you need to replace them.

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I was just coming here to talk about what to expect from him, ROS and I see this platoon nonsense. That can't be right, right? He's been one of the best hitters in baseball so far!

But anyway, he's hit a little bit of an inevitable regression here lately which was obviously going to happen, but he's still the overall 26th ranked player according to my league's settings. Just wondering what opinions are on exactly what kind of hitter he'll be once the dust settles? I'm assuming all of the advanced metrics are still looking good? 

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2 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

I was just coming here to talk about what to expect from him, ROS and I see this platoon nonsense. That can't be right, right? He's been one of the best hitters in baseball so far!

But anyway, he's hit a little bit of an inevitable regression here lately which was obviously going to happen, but he's still the overall 26th ranked player according to my league's settings. Just wondering what opinions are on exactly what kind of hitter he'll be once the dust settles? I'm assuming all of the advanced metrics are still looking good? 

 

.260-25-5

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15 minutes ago, DFWSooner said:

I was just coming here to talk about what to expect from him, ROS and I see this platoon nonsense. That can't be right, right? He's been one of the best hitters in baseball so far!

But anyway, he's hit a little bit of an inevitable regression here lately which was obviously going to happen, but he's still the overall 26th ranked player according to my league's settings. Just wondering what opinions are on exactly what kind of hitter he'll be once the dust settles? I'm assuming all of the advanced metrics are still looking good? 

 

Yep, everything is still looking good.

SwStr% is 7.8% (league avg 11%)

Hard% 46.5%

O-Swing% 25.4% (lg avg 30.2%)

Contact% 79.6% (lg avg 76%)


Still not sure what to expect though long-term.  But I think this is a real thing and I'm personally expecting 25+ HR with maybe a .270/.340/.480 line.

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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2 minutes ago, David Aames said:

really? those numbers are very very boring

 

we can do Bryce Harper. 40 HRs, 200 strikeouts and a .230 average.

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