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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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57 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

He was a 4th-5th round pick in re-draft. He wont steal bags and its been over a month of zero production. He needs to basically do what Goldy and Carpenter did last year to get solid ROI at this point.  Acuna didn't turn it up until the 2nd half...but he could steal bags wasn't drafted as high.

Don't think any of the dynasty owners are harping on him, are they?

The lack of speed and horrible lineup definitely stunts his value a bit. He's going to have to consistently hit .300 from here on out to really return good value. This is why I like guys like Senzel and Tatis Jr over him due to the speed and power they bring. At least until Vlad starts hitting like prime Miguel Cabrera.

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51 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He was called up 4/26.  It's May 7th.  Over a month?

 

53 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

It has been 37 plate appearances.  Welcome to the list.

So people draft in the middle of April?

Do you know how draft day ROI works? 

Edited by Slatykamora
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Baseball Season started in late March. Not April 26th. Vlad was not someone you could have just picked off Waviers when he got the call. He was not someone you could draft late and stash. You had to spend a solid pick on him and pass on guys who were going play from opening day. There is absolutely more pressure on him to hit the ground running given he doesn't steal.

Its not "over", he could still light the world up the last 4.5 months...but he does need to really get going sooner then later for people in re-draft.  No one pick can "ruin" your draft. Not even a 1st round pick sometimes. That doesn't change the facts here though.

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I understand the frustration, especially when you see rookies like Senzel having immediate success. However I think anyone who drafted him in the 4th round was overly optimistic. Rookies are extremely risky and you have to be more patient and let them get their feet wet. I understand most of us were stashing him and waiting patiently and now that he’s up we we’re expecting him to hit homeruns on the daily. That’s simply not realistic. He’s a kid who’s very talented but he needs to adjust. Honestly he could smash 2 homers today and suddenly everyone would jump right back onto the hype train.  

If you drafted him, you should have had a backup plan in case something like this were to happen. He hasn’t proved anything in the majors yet which is why it’s foolish to get overly hyped on rookies. I own him only because he was a keeper that cost me a 23rd round pick. If I had to take him in round 4 I would have easily passed and let someone else take the risk and grab someone more proven. 

Simply put, he shouldn’t make or break your team. If the success of your team solely depends on his production then you didn’t do your due diligence as a fantasy manager. If anything he should be a compliment to your team with a contingency plan in place in case he falters. That’s how you win championships.

 

Edited by HaloFanatic17
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49 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 

So people draft in the middle of April?

Do you know how draft day ROI works? 

 

37 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Baseball Season started in late March. Not April 26th. Vlad was not someone you could have just picked off Waviers when he got the call. He was not someone you could draft late and stash. You had to spend a solid pick on him and pass on guys who were going play from opening day. There is absolutely more pressure on him to hit the ground running given he doesn't steal.

Its not "over", he could still light the world up the last 4.5 months...but he does need to really get going sooner then later for people in re-draft.  No one pick can "ruin" your draft. Not even a 1st round pick sometimes. That doesn't change the facts here though.

 

These are fair points if you're viewing his 2019 outlook on draft price and ROI.  I mistook your "over a month of no production" comment.  

That being said, I don't think anyone reasonably expected much from him over the first month of the fantasy season anyway.  That should have been priced in to his draft price.  This thread should not be so singularly focused on the low ROI of a player just 9 games into his season/career that was drafted with full knowledge that he may not be promoted until 10-20% of the season had passed.

The Jays having 127 games remaining, or 78% of the season.  

 

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12 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

This thread should not be so singularly focused on the low ROI of a player just 9 games into his season/career that was drafted with full knowledge that he may not be promoted until 10-20% of the season had passed.

 

It's probably best not to pontificate on what a given thread should or should not be focused on.  People are going to complain about a highly-drafted player who's off to a slow start, however irrational you may think that may be.  You're free to point out that you think it's irrational, that there's a lot of season left, etc. but if you've done that and folks are still upset, it's probably best just to move on and come back to the thread when you have something new to say.

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To date the worst rookie in MLB, just sayin. He aint no Soto.

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1 hour ago, Krambone said:

To date the worst rookie in MLB, just sayin. He aint no Soto.

How’s the ole back doing for young Juanny?

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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

He was a 4th-5th round pick in re-draft. He wont steal bags and its been over a month of zero production. He needs to basically do what Goldy and Carpenter did last year to get solid ROI at this point.  Acuna didn't turn it up until the 2nd half...but he could steal bags wasn't drafted as high.

Don't think any of the dynasty owners are harping on him, are they?

Lol it's literally been 9 games.

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30 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Lol it's literally been 9 games.

For your fantasy team. Its been a month of zero production. Better?

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3 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

For your fantasy team. Its been a month of zero production. Better?

 

What? He has literally only played 9 games since being called up. Is he supposed to produce stats in games he doesn’t play in now?

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1 minute ago, largeshot said:

 

What? He has literally only played 9 games since being called up. Is he supposed to produce stats in games he doesn’t play in now?

He’s only played in 9 games yes, but you’re forgetting that in order to have him (unless you traded for him), he was just a stash (no production) while we waited for the call up. 

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24 minutes ago, Redsfan34 said:

He’s only played in 9 games yes, but you’re forgetting that in order to have him (unless you traded for him), he was just a stash (no production) while we waited for the call up. 

 

I guess I can understand that, but again, anyone who drafted him knew beforehand that this would be the case. If you invested a high pick into an ultimately unproven rookie expecting that he would come in and hit like Barry Bonds from day 1 then that’s just poor judgment in my opinion. I personally got him in the 6th round and made sure to go after other options at 3B. If you used a 4th rounder or higher on him then I can see why you might be underwhelmed but that’s the risk you signed up for by reaching for him.

 

All of this is just massive overreaction. He could break out and go on a tear any day now - it’s just way too early to be panicking.

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24 minutes ago, Redsfan34 said:

He’s only played in 9 games yes, but you’re forgetting that in order to have him (unless you traded for him), he was just a stash (no production) while we waited for the call up. 

Not necessarily. Many leagues have NA/minors slots, so not really wasting anything at all if that's the case. 

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11 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

Translation ^ He is getting nothing over the heart of the plate. At all.

True, but until he starts laying off they'll keep it up. Last I saw he was rocking a 70% ground ball rate. I'm sure he'll improve and patience is needed, but that's disgusting.

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4 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

True, but until he starts laying off they'll keep it up. Last I saw he was rocking a 70% ground ball rate. I'm sure he'll improve and patience is needed, but that's disgusting.

This is interesting. However, I’ve seen him display a great eye at the plate but I’ve also seen him get rung up on borderline pitches that obviously a rookie is going to get called out on. His first K last night was a borderline pitch by Perez that I felt was a tad outside but framed well and it was called. That could be leading to him chasing a little due to frustration of not getting the borderline calls. 

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Is there some statcast data that can point to something other than just plain old being bad? If we’re not blindly preaching patience, I’d prefer some data to suggest he is a different hitter (this season) than what he appears to be.

And can we stop with the finger-wagging, smarter-than-thou comments from people who either don’t own him, own him in a keeper/dynasty, or got him at a ridiculous discount? Yeah we get it...we’re all dumb for drafting a guy exactly where everyone else drafted him. But for those that actually believe he’ll put up 5th round value this season, after watching his ABs, I’d like to hear why. Patience is obviously required but we only have so much.

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30 minutes ago, exaulz said:

Is there some statcast data that can point to something other than just plain old being bad? If we’re not blindly preaching patience, I’d prefer some data to suggest he is a different hitter (this season) than what he appears to be.

And can we stop with the finger-wagging, smarter-than-thou comments from people who either don’t own him, own him in a keeper/dynasty, or got him at a ridiculous discount? Yeah we get it...we’re all dumb for drafting a guy exactly where everyone else drafted him. But for those that actually believe he’ll put up 5th round value this season, after watching his ABs, I’d like to hear why. Patience is obviously required but we only have so much.

 

Agreed. Just reading this thread is embarrassing. Everyone dropping their pants and comparing sizes. No one cares. 

 

if you're really silly enough after a week in the majors to believe this guy is a fraud, I don't know what else to say. 

 

However, as a dynasty owner, there's very little reason to doubt his future as of now. 

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1 hour ago, OaksterDan said:

Not necessarily. Many leagues have NA/minors slots, so not really wasting anything at all if that's the case. 

Dynasty and keeper leagues maybe, not many redraft leagues use those in my experience, definitely the minority. 

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The problem with Guerrero is that the book was already out on him before he hit the majors. They are pitching to him like he is a 10 year veteran

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge
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A Rowdy McKinnley sandwich is sure the recipe to success.....

Miami, Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers all with by far worst lineups in baseball.  Going to be ugly owning anyone on these clubs.  

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12 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

A Rowdy McKinnley sandwich is sure the recipe to success.....

Miami, Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers all with by far worst lineups in baseball.  Going to be ugly owning anyone on these clubs.  

 

It's not a coincidence I own almost none of their players (shout out Matt Boyd) across 8 leagues.  

More proven players drafted around where VGJ was going are given month-long grace periods to start the season.  Why doesn't Vlad get the same benefit after his call-up?  I get the sense people are feeling entitled to a top 25 hitter out of the gate as vindication for having to stash him.  

Edited by 80version
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