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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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45 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Can someone show this their dip**** manager 

Why? So his manager can tell opposing pitchers to please throw bp fastballs down the middle?

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Why? So his manager can tell opposing pitchers to please throw bp fastballs down the middle?

To put him in the 2 or 3 hole.  This slow start is 100% on Vlad but his sh$& for brains manager isn’t doing the Blue Jays prized prospect any favors.  He’ll get more at bats on the season which is what he needs and may see 1 or 2 more strikes per game, at least.  This fool wants him to earn his stripes in the worst lineup in baseball.  

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15 hours ago, cs3 said:

Yes, let's move the guy slashing .162/.244/.189 to the top of the order. Great plan. Lol at thinking any manager would make that move now.

 

 

Actually on second thought you're probably right, he could be hitting in the 3-hole soon...

...back in Buffalo!

I don’t trust anything Montoya does and I have no reason to trust him.  Here are my reasons why:

1.  What kind of fool manager says “I kind of like it” in response to Vlad’s frustration with not getting borderline calls.  He literally said that.  

2.  What kind fool manager hires a hitting coach (Guillermo Martinez) that’s never played above High A ball?  He wasn’t that good either in the minors and moved to the Indy league where he sucked too.

3.  What kind of fool manager wants his players to exclusively take batting practice by a pitching machine instead of a live arm?  The Blue Jays are the only team in the majors that do this exclusively.  An important piece to hitting is seeing the ball out of the pitchers hand which is why managers avoid machines.  Furthermore, this was never a part of Vlad’s routine in the minors.  A big part of Vlad’s preparation is studying pitchers and being exceptional at recognizing pitches when they’re released from the pitchers hand.  Montoya’s reason?  He wants his players to get used to real game velocity.  Why are 29 other teams avoiding this?  Probably the same reason why my high school coach avoided machines... you can’t see the ball being released and you can’t practice recognizing pitches out of the pitchers hand.  

Again, the poor start is 100% on Vlad but his manager certainly isn’t doing him, the Blue Jays, or the fans any favors.  He will not be managing that team for long, I can promise you that.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, tekashi26ix said:

Just a quick reminder here that our boy is only one month into a likely twenty year career. Cheers. 

 

Less than that.  10 games.

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1 hour ago, Strike Three said:

I don’t trust anything Montoya does and I have no reason to trust him.  Here are my reasons why:

1.  What kind of fool manager says “I kind of like it” in response to Vlad’s frustration with not getting borderline calls.  He literally said that.  

2.  What kind fool manager hires a hitting coach (Guillermo Martinez) that’s never played above High A ball?  He wasn’t that good either in the minors and moved to the Indy league where he sucked too.

3.  What kind of fool manager wants his players to exclusively take batting practice by a pitching machine instead of a live arm?  The Blue Jays are the only team in the majors that do this exclusively.  An important piece to hitting is seeing the ball out of the pitchers hand which is why managers avoid machines.  Furthermore, this was never a part of Vlad’s routine in the minors.  A big part of Vlad’s preparation is studying pitchers and being exceptional at recognizing pitches when they’re released from the pitchers hand.  Montoya’s reason?  He wants his players to get used to real game velocity.  Why are 29 other teams avoiding this?  Probably the same reason why my high school coach avoided machines... you can’t see the ball being released and you can’t practice recognizing pitches out of the pitchers hand.  

Again, the poor start is 100% on Vlad but his manager certainly isn’t doing him, the Blue Jays, or the fans any favors.  He will not be managing that team for long, I can promise you that.

 

 

 

Look, I don't know anything about Montoya or any other Jays coach, so maybe he is an idiot.

What I do know, is that there is not a single MLB manager who would move a rookie with that slash line UP the order at this point 

Edited by cs3
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1 hour ago, Strike Three said:

2.  What kind fool manager hires a hitting coach (Guillermo Martinez) that’s never played above High A ball?  He wasn’t that good either in the minors and moved to the Indy league where he sucked too.

 

Everything else you said makes sense to me, but I'll have to disagree with this one.  The fact that a person wasn't personally successful at a difficult athletic endeavor doesn't mean they can't be a great coach.  

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He's not the first uber prospect to crap the bed on his first call-up, won't be the last either. 

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For everyone complaining about production - take it as a learning experience on relying on rookies.  You should understand its possible.  Adjust your expectations, this is their floor, but the upside of their ceiling is off the charts. 1st 10 games of their careers:

 

Mike Trout - 34 ABs, 6 H(.176), 2 2B, 3 BB, 8 K

 

Vlad Jr. - 37 ABs, 6 H, 2B, 4 BB, 11 K

 

Mike Trout next 30 games: 89 ABs, 21 H(.235), 4 2B, 5 HR, 6 BB, 22 K

 

***Trout had 4 SB over those 40 games

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Front page of Fangraphs today, for historically sucking. 

 

Takeaways:

-- Correlation between a top prospects 1st 40 AB and his next 600 AB = none.

-- Correlation between a top prospect's next 600 AB and his career production = strong.

 

As if we didn't already know that.

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On 4/24/2019 at 11:12 PM, LarryChip10 said:

.318 86 42 88 (if the team didn’t suck so much... so multiply by .92 and you have his season totals w/ a ROY trophy.) 

 

Take that to the bank... you know which one. 

LMAOOO which bank ?

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still very early. say he does nothing. in 3 years we can call him a post-hype sleeper.

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Do people remember Trout's initial call up? Apparently not. Feel like a lot of people that don't have him are really trying to live it up while they can. Fwiw, it looks pretty pathetic. There really should be little doubt this kid will be a star. His redraft value may have taken a hit, but dynasty-wise he's still an absolute stud to have. 

Edited by MugsyBogues
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49 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Coaching staff giving Guerrero advice:

tumblr_mb4i3w0yTR1r0jy2qo1_500.gif

 

He's actually much more agile and quick than he gets credit for. Big body? Yes, but can take a would-be double down the LF line away and he busts out of the box and makes grounders to SS close at 1B. This kind of slow start is normal, especially for a player pitchers are already pitching to like he's a perennial all-star. Nothing to do with his weight or body. He'll adjust, be patient. 

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1 hour ago, MugsyBogues said:

Do people remember Trout's initial call up? Apparently not. Feel like a lot of people that don't have him are really trying to live it up while they can. Fwiw, it looks pretty pathetic. There really should be little doubt this kid will be a star. His redraft value may have taken a hit, but dynasty-wise he's still an absolute stud to have. 

 

Great point. I’m surprised it took someone so long to mention Trout’s Initial call up...

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6 minutes ago, robbybobby005 said:

 

Great point. I’m surprised it took someone so long to mention Trout’s Initial call up...

Im not sure if this is sarcasm but by now I feel like people have brought up Trouts bad start about a thousand times.

The adjustment to the big leagues is huge, theres very few great curveballs or nasty sliders in the minors, most pitchers that have those pitches are in the major leagues. Plus big league pitchers generally have much better command of the corners of the plate. I still think Vladdy will be just fine but theres no guarantees on any of it..

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3 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

Im not sure if this is sarcasm but by now I feel like people have brought up Trouts bad start about a thousand times.

The adjustment to the big leagues is huge, theres very few great curveballs or nasty sliders in the minors, most pitchers that have those pitches are in the major leagues. Plus big league pitchers generally have much better command of the corners of the plate. I still think Vladdy will be just fine but theres no guarantees on any of it..

Was definitely sarcasm!

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1 hour ago, MugsyBogues said:

Do people remember Trout's initial call up? Apparently not. Feel like a lot of people that don't have him are really trying to live it up while they can. Fwiw, it looks pretty pathetic. There really should be little doubt this kid will be a star. His redraft value may have taken a hit, but dynasty-wise he's still an absolute stud to have. 

No doubt Trout struggled, but he also way outpeformed scouting reports when he broke out, so I am not sure he is the "norm" but maybe a real outlier that a lot of people try to duplicate and say "remember Trout"- Trout's power in scouting was maybe a ceiling of 25HR, he obviously went way beyond his "ceiling".  The reality is that most prospects struggle when they first come up, I think (especially in re-draft) that he was going way too early for my taste, you are right I dont think there is anything a top prospect can really do in their first month that should do anything to impact Dynasty/Keeper value in a negative way, if you are experiencing that in your league, I would take advantage and acquire him.  

 

 

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Some are mentioning Trout’s initial call up but what if he isn’t trout? 

What about the big prospects that didn’t pan out? 

I don’t own Vlad and I’m not hating on the guy but people are already crowning him the Next Trout when he only has 12 games under his belt. 

He has a ton of upside and a lot of talent but there is no guarantee he will be a superstar. 

People predicting 42 homers this season and comparing him to trout is a pipe dream until it actually happens. 

 

I wish him luck 

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6 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

Some are mentioning Trout’s initial call up but what if he isn’t trout? 

What about the big prospects that didn’t pan out? 

I don’t own Vlad and I’m not hating on the guy but people are already crowning him the Next Trout when he only has 12 games under his belt. 

He has a ton of upside and a lot of talent but there is no guarantee he will be a superstar. 

People predicting 42 homers this season and comparing him to trout is a pipe dream until it actually happens. 

 

I wish him luck 

 

I am going to have to correct you. he is the next "Ted Williams" many have said.

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The fantasy baseball community needs to implement a variation of "Godwin's Law" in regards to Trout's "struggles" when he was called up.  Call it "Troutwin's Law."

When, discussing a prospect/rookie, someone invokes "Trout's struggles" as evidence or as a reference point, any such post is immediately discarded as pointless and irrelevant and "Troutwin's law" is referenced in order to jibe them in to not doing so again.  

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