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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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For supposedly having an elite eye, he sure does swing at a lot of balls and take a lot of close pitches for strikes (and even balls that should have been called strikes). That more than anything worries me for his redraft value.

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I'm not worried about Vlad at all. We've already seen the type of weeks hes capable of. Hes going to have some ups and downs but by the end of the year hes going to get the numbers I expected. He will get more consistent as the year goes on. 

I'm playing all H2H leagues for the record. 

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I'd be pissed if I had him in h2h, but if you're rolling him out in roto the numbers will eventually come and look just fine end of season. 

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His dad slashed .302/.350/.483 his rookie year (albeit Vlad Sr. was a couple years older). I think that .833 OPS seems like a fair over/under number. I guess I'd pass on that bet or take the under since the jays aren't very good (although the Expos sucked back in Sr.'s rookie year too).

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To the people who are "extremely upset and disappointed" in Vlad Jr. through his first 113 plate appearances, what exactly would you be selling him for?

For what it's worth, here's how I would rank 3B for the remainder of the 2019 season:

1. Arenado

2. Bregman

3. Baez

4. Rendon

5. Bryant

6. Devers

7. Suarez

8. Machado

9. Vlad Jr.

10. J. Turner

11. Chapman

12. J. Ramirez

13. Moustakas

14. Muncy

15. H. Dozier

16. Escobar

So yeah, I have Vlad Jr. in the Suarez/Machado/J. Turner/Chapman territory when it comes to rest of the season value.

---

Now, when it comes to dynasty league value it's a whole different story. Keeper league value depends on a lot of things, such as the number of keepers on each team and how long you expect the league to last. But broadly speaking, here's how I would rank Vlad's dynasty league value in a league that I expected to last for many years to come.

1. Acuña (21.5)

2. Trout (27.9)

3. Bellinger (23.9)

4. Vlad Jr. (20.2)

5. Soto (20.7)

6. Yelich (27.5)

7. Betts (26.7)

8. Lindor (25.6)

9. Bregman (25.1)

10. Arenado (28.1)

11. Story (26.6)

12. Baez (26.5)

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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So yeah, I have Vlad Jr. in the Suarez/Machado/J. Turner/Chapman territory when it comes to rest of the season value.

 

I'm guessing people were hoping for better than a speculative 9th best 3rd basemen out a guy whose ADP was around 40.

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Rookies. Most of them won't come up and tear up the league right away. Most minor league pitchers are minor league pitchers for a reason; they don't (or don't yet) warrant a roster spot on an MLB team. It's a big leap in terms of the pitching, preparation, and scouting they face. Rookies require patience. 

Edited by Josean Pelota

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2 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Told yall to get off his piece , top 75 player not a 4th rounder

 

Since being moved to 2nd in the batting order three weeks ago he has been producing like a 4th rounder (or better)

 

18 games

.290

11 R

6 HR

11 RBI

 

 

Over

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2 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Since being moved to 2nd in the batting order three weeks ago he has been producing like a 4th rounder (or better)

 

18 games

.290

11 R

6 HR

11 RBI

 

 

Over

Lmao 

hes ranked 312 over the last two weeks , and 327 over the past month. 

Besides that 2hr 4rbi game he’s had (18 games ago lol ) he has not been anything close to a 4th rounder.

listen I’m not a hater , nor am I trolling. As a matter of fact I’m from Toronto if that means anything. 

I just can’t stand all this bias towards vladdy in these threads it’s outrageous, the potential is there but he’s not going to be what u guys claim THIS season. 

Remember it’s more important to be right than first. Slow the hype train down he will be top 10 one day

 

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2 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Lmao 

hes ranked 312 over the last two weeks , and 327 over the past month. 

Besides that 2hr 4rbi game he’s had (18 games ago lol ) he has not been anything close to a 4th rounder.

listen I’m not a hater , nor am I trolling. As a matter of fact I’m from Toronto if that means anything. 

I just can’t stand all this bias towards vladdy in these threads it’s outrageous, the potential is there but he’s not going to be what u guys claim THIS season. 

Remember it’s more important to be right than first. Slow the hype train down he will be top 10 one day

 

But dude look at the positives...he's playing in Coors this weekend for the only time this season!!!

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I'm not even an owner but I think you guys have good reason to be optimistic about him this season. In a redraft, I may be looking to buy before the numbers take off.

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15 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

I'm not even an owner but I think you guys have good reason to be optimistic about him this season. In a redraft, I may be looking to buy before the numbers take off.

 

I cant believe the lengths people are going to complain about the hype of one of the most highly anticipated prospects since Bryce Harper. Dare I say Ken Griffey Jr.? The guy legitimately dominated the minors like a man against boys and because he didn’t immediately come up an start mashing it became cool to trash talk him. This kid has had people predicting HOF potential since he was like 16. Those who think it’s cool to take a contrarian opinion on one of the most obvious can’t miss prospects in decades are really putting themselves at exponentially high risk of looking very silly. There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about Vlad Jr’s 2019 capabilities.

Those who are betting against his talent - even in the short term - just sound bitter that he’s not on their roster. Or still annoyed that his value was reached on in drafts. Hey, if someone reached for him and found a way to remain competitive until now - was it not worth the reach? Sometimes you have to just be confident in your draft skills and make sure you get the guy you want where you know that you can get them. 

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5 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Lmao 

hes ranked 312 over the last two weeks , and 327 over the past month. 

Besides that 2hr 4rbi game he’s had (18 games ago lol ) he has not been anything close to a 4th rounder.

listen I’m not a hater , nor am I trolling. As a matter of fact I’m from Toronto if that means anything. 

I just can’t stand all this bias towards vladdy in these threads it’s outrageous, the potential is there but he’s not going to be what u guys claim THIS season. 

Remember it’s more important to be right than first. Slow the hype train down he will be top 10 one day

 

 

He moved from batting 5th to batting 2nd three weeks ago. Since then his numbers:

18 games

.292

11 R

6 HR

11 RBI

 

 

That is a season long pace of

144 Games

.292

88 runs

48 HR

88 RBI

 

 

That is top 48 player. Sorry that rustles your jimmies.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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3 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

But dude look at the positives...he's playing in Coors this weekend for the only time this season!!!

 

The positive is that since May 10th (when he moved from 5th to 2nd in the order) he has a .292 averaged and a .960 OPS.

 

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9 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

He moved from batting 5th to batting 2nd three weeks ago. Since then his numbers:

18 games

.292

11 R

6 HR

11 RBI

 

 

That is a season long pace of

144 Games

.292

88 runs

48 HR

88 RBI

 

 

That is top 48 player. Sorry that rustles your jimmies.

You’re  missing the point , there are literally a couple hundred batters and pitchers who if u take there last 18 game sample size and stretch it to per 162 games, they would also be on pace for 50 home runs or 250+ strike outs. That doesn’t mean there all too 48 players LOL. This is actually getting outrageous 😂

Thats like me saying since renato Nunez hit 7 hrs in his last 10 games , he’s on pace for 105 home runs over 150 games. This is baseball , you know better 

Edited by Simsanityy179

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9 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

He moved from batting 5th to batting 2nd three weeks ago. Since then his numbers:

18 games

.292

11 R

6 HR

11 RBI

 

 

That is a season long pace of

144 Games

.292

88 runs

48 HR

88 RBI

 

 

That is top 48 player. Sorry that rustles your jimmies.

 

9 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

The positive is that since May 10th (when he moved from 5th to 2nd in the order) he has a .292 averaged and a .960 OPS.

 

Yes, Im sure that he suddenly started hitting because of his new lineup spot. That must be what the problem was before. Nobody can be expected to hit when they're not in the 2-hole!

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2 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

What's the argument here, even? That he's overrated? That he was overdrafted? 

They have no clue... 

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2 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

What's the argument here, even? That he's overrated? That he was overdrafted? 

The argument is that some of these guys should be banned from posting , this guy said because vladdy hit 6hr , 11 rbi and runs in the last 18 games means he’s on pace for 45ish home runs with 90 rbi/runs at the 2 hole. That’s the stupidest logic I’ve ever heard when considering this is baseball we’re talking about. I guess Escobar , Alonzo , Dietrich , and Riley are a few guys who will threaten bonds record of 73 with that logic. LMAO I can’t believe it this thread is hilarious 

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I'm pretty sure he simply provided the math for what those numbers would look like across a season, attempting to illustrate how good they are in that context. I think we all know that baseball doesn't work that formulaically.

What exactly are you trying to argue related to Vlad Jr? Do you think he wasn't worth his draft cost, or won't live up to the hype this season/long term? 

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