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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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I'm just a little confused, because I don't own him anywhere and have only followed from afar.... but... he seems pretty good.

The other names you float at the end of your post also don't have the minor league record Vlad Jr. has, so it makes some sense that they are not being similarly discussed.

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6 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

The argument is that some of these guys should be banned from posting , this guy said because vladdy hit 6hr , 11 rbi and runs in the last 18 games means he’s on pace for 45ish home runs with 90 rbi/runs at the 2 hole. That’s the stupidest logic I’ve ever heard when considering this is baseball we’re talking about. I guess Escobar , Alonzo , Dietrich , and Riley are a few guys who will threaten bonds record of 73 with that logic. LMAO I can’t believe it this thread is hilarious 

 

Haven't been here long then, I'm guessing

Hang tight. 

That said you missed the entire context of his point. 

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3 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

I'm pretty sure he simply provided the math for what those numbers would look like across a season, attempting to illustrate how good they are in that context. I think we all know that baseball doesn't work that formulaically.

What exactly are you trying to argue related to Vlad Jr? Do you think he wasn't worth his draft cost, or won't live up to the hype this season/long term? 

100% sure he wasn’t worth the draft pick , can’t expect elite fantasy production out of a rookie just because of his track record against minor league pitching. He will be a 1st round player soon enough , but damn I guess the Soto and acuna train last year got to some people. 

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Are you in some leagues where he was drafted in the first? Because I'd be inclined to agree with you in that case, though more for redraft than other formats. 

Just seems like a really silly and wasteful thing to work to complain about this guy, of all the players out there. He might have started slower than anticipated or hoped for, but recently he's been playing very well. Given the gamble that this thing of fantasy baseball is, I'm not sure why this would be the player you'd choose to gamble against.

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1 minute ago, treat88 said:

 

Haven't been here long then, I'm guessing

Hang tight. 

That said you missed the entire context of his point. 

I got his point , progression has occurred since entering the 2 hole , as an owner I would be happy. But I’m still standing pat on my claim that he’s not worth a top 40 pick in 2019 redraft formats. That’s my only point I really want to emphasize, things are only blowing out of proportion because unlike any other thread , this thread has a lot of biased owners who can’t believe I would discredit there choice to select vladdy in the 4th round. Just one more point , I seen a lot of people agree that he’s in similar territory as Chapman for example, yet nobody would pick Chapman in the 4th round. Goes to show that certain names in all fantasy will go overdrafted due to who they are , which I’m against. Fantasy is a game based on numbers , if you overdraft because you like that player or he’s fun to watch , I’m all with it. Just don’t act like you made the best fantasy choice.

 

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9 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

Are you in some leagues where he was drafted in the first? Because I'd be inclined to agree with you in that case, though more for redraft than other formats. 

Just seems like a really silly and wasteful thing to work to complain about this guy, of all the players out there. He might have started slower than anticipated or hoped for, but recently he's been playing very well. Given the gamble that this thing of fantasy baseball is, I'm not sure why this would be the player you'd choose to gamble against.

I agree. For a while I was making pretty much the same argument that you are until I started to realize that a lot of the complainers must have drafted him way too early in redraft leagues. Although you can’t really blame them because I thought all of the expert mock drafts had him going way too early as well.

Id be really curious to see where exactly he was being drafted in redraft leagues. He fell to the end of the 8th round of my 10 team redraft league and I was able to scoop him up there, where I was pretty comfortable with the risk/reward.  And still am. I’d still bet on him being elite at some point this season and never looking back.

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47 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

What's the argument here, even? That he's overrated? That he was overdrafted? 

Over drafted. Not overreated.

If you drafted him hoping for ROI. I think you came in with un-realistic expectations from the start. If you drafted him more the sake of fun/enjoyment in owning a stud prospect. Then you will probably be satisfied if he finishes the season strong. Even his year to date stat line does not crack top 50/draft price.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Sorta seems like some kind of mild testament to him as a player and a prospect that it's an argument with valid points on both sides, much less worth having at all.

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Are those folks who are bashing Vlad taking into account the production Vlad owners got the first few weeks from their  pre-Vlad-callup plug in option? Seems kind of silly not to add they production in.  

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I'm not sure there's any point in considering that, really. Why would that have anything to do with an assessment of Vlad Jr. as a player? 

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3 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

Are those folks who are bashing Vlad taking into account the production Vlad owners got the first few weeks from their  pre-Vlad-callup plug in option? Seems kind of silly not to add they production in.  

 

Not a valid argument because vlad was still using a roster spot.

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

 

Yes, Im sure that he suddenly started hitting because of his new lineup spot. That must be what the problem was before. Nobody can be expected to hit when they're not in the 2-hole!

 

Who knows what the reasoning is. The fact is he has been much better from that spot in the lineup and the trajectory looks just fine. 

 

Remember when you said no manager would ever move a hitter up who was struggling like Vlad was right before Toronto did it? Yikes. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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1 minute ago, CAT said:

 

Not a valid argument because vlad was still using a roster spot.

...and it really just makes no sense. At that point, you're just twisting and distorting the essential stats to fit whatever you want to see... and it could change drastically from team-to-team. 

"Are these folks who are bashing Paxton for being injury prone taking into account how successful I've been streaming pitchers in his absence??"

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3 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

I got his point , progression has occurred since entering the 2 hole , as an owner I would be happy. But I’m still standing pat on my claim that he’s not worth a top 40 pick in 2019 redraft formats. That’s my only point I really want to emphasize, things are only blowing out of proportion because unlike any other thread , this thread has a lot of biased owners who can’t believe I would discredit there choice to select vladdy in the 4th round. Just one more point , I seen a lot of people agree that he’s in similar territory as Chapman for example, yet nobody would pick Chapman in the 4th round. Goes to show that certain names in all fantasy will go overdrafted due to who they are , which I’m against. Fantasy is a game based on numbers , if you overdraft because you like that player or he’s fun to watch , I’m all with it. Just don’t act like you made the best fantasy choice.

 

It's not really just about progression, its about upside 

Sure, rooks struggle.  All the names have been named who have had a rough start to stellar careers.  The difference is when it clicks for elite talents, it's not just progression that happens they blow up and pit up stretches that rival the elite estaised players.

 

The point I think you are missing is when and if that switch flips for Vlad, it is far too early to say he's not worth the 4th round pick some spent.   He may not be ultimately,  but you can't make that call yet, cause when/if it comes its coming in spades. 

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9 hours ago, tommyGunZ said:

Are those folks who are bashing Vlad taking into account the production Vlad owners got the first few weeks from their  pre-Vlad-callup plug in option? Seems kind of silly not to add they production in.  

Draft investment is about opportunity cost (I.e. what you could have gotten instead of player X). 

You are talking about roster management. That is different. You can apply that logic to someone that goes on IL, not someone you had to hold.

Vlad's ADP was in-between Rendon and Suraez in most formats (ESPN had his ADP 70? which i don't play in, maybe you do). Being Suraez equal ROS will not make Vlad worth his draft investment You could have just gotten 6 months of this type of production instead of 4. 

 

If Vlad was grabbed where Acuna was last year. We wouldn't be having this discussion in late May

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Draft investment is about opportunity cost (I.e. what you could have gotten instead of player X). 

You are talking about roster management. That is different. You can apply that logic to someone that goes on IL, not someone you had to hold.

Vlad's ADP was in-between Rendon and Suraez in most formats (ESPN had his ADP 70? which i don't play in, maybe you do). Being Suraez equal ROS will not make Vlad worth his draft investment You could have just gotten 6 months of this type of production instead of 4. 

 

If Vlad was grabbed where Acuna was last year. We wouldn't be having this discussion in late May

 

 

I think the problem was that Acuna was so good that the next year people had to grab the next Acuna early. People are really starting to catch on to these call ups. Which is weird because they were ignored in drafts for years and years.

I guess everyone is woke now in 2019.

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Draft investment is about opportunity cost (I.e. what you could have gotten instead of player X). 

You are talking about roster management. That is different. You can apply that logic to someone that goes on IL, not someone you had to hold.

Vlad's ADP was in-between Rendon and Suraez in most formats (ESPN had his ADP 70? which i don't play in, maybe you do). Being Suraez equal ROS will not make Vlad worth his draft investment You could have just gotten 6 months of this type of production instead of 4. 

 

If Vlad was grabbed where Acuna was last year. We wouldn't be having this discussion in late May

 

 

 

I think there is a decent chance Vlad still ends up around 70th overall. If a player going around 70th finishes around 70th complaining about him being over drafted is petty.

 

Vlad struggled his first two weeks. Since then he is in the top 30 overall in wRC. It’s not like he has continued to flop.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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18 hours ago, tommyGunZ said:

Are those folks who are bashing Vlad taking into account the production Vlad owners got the first few weeks from their  pre-Vlad-callup plug in option? Seems kind of silly not to add they production in.  

then also add in the value of the pick you used in order to pick up that production as well.  

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On 6/1/2019 at 8:13 AM, Hanghow said:

I'm not even an owner but I think you guys have good reason to be optimistic about him this season. In a redraft, I may be looking to buy before the numbers take off.

I don't think enough people appreciate how bad that team is and how it's going to impact his counting stats. That's not something to really concern yourself with too much in a dynasty, but in redrafts you're kind of nuts to ignore the serious issues this lineup has, and how that's going to affect Vlad.

 

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Wasnt his adp like 7th or 8th round after his injury was announced 

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23 hours ago, Denbo32 said:

Wasnt his adp like 7th or 8th round after his injury was announced 

no.

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4 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

He was going in the 63rd which is 6th round in 12 teamers and 7th round in 10 teamers.

This...got him at 64 when he should have went 264. Biggest bust of all time and still producing negative value for the year. No counting stats and he cannot hit a baseball is a double whammy

Edited by Dr. Whom
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Since moving to the 2 hole on 5/10 across 92 PAs, he has the follow line:


.286/.348/.560; .378 wOBA & 139 wRC+; 6 HRs 11 Rs & 12 RBIs; 8/14 BB/SO. 

 

He's not setting the world on fire and the counting stats are what should be expected on this garbage team but to claim he has been a bust is a stretch.

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3 minutes ago, kelle1sa said:

Since moving to the 2 hole on 5/10 across 92 PAs, he has the follow line:


.286/.348/.560; .378 wOBA & 139 wRC+; 6 HRs 11 Rs & 12 RBIs; 8/14 BB/SO. 

 

He's not setting the world on fire and the counting stats are what should be expected on this garbage team but to claim he has been a bust is a stretch.

Fair enough...he is still producing negative value on most player ratings though. My point is that even if he becomes a good hitter, his team around him will still suck for probably his entire career unless some cap is implemented

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