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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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10 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

 

You wouldn't be posting on this thread if the manager was the issue. it's simple - he needs more time.  Putting a young 20 year old on a pedestal was naive for any seasoned fantasy manager.  

This is the ultimate "hindsight is 20/20" post.  I mean come on.  Are you preaching naivete in the Soto and Acuna threads?  He was far and away the best prospect coming into this season, and he mashed the minors.  Can you please provide any evidence that more time in the minors will help?  And I'm not talking about his current MLB results that have you upset.  Based on what he had already done IN THE MINORS, what more could he do?!  It is just gonna take time, but he is where he should be.  

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His WRC+ is 102. He's an above average league hitter currently (albeit basically average).  Nothing in the minors will help. He's in the right level. 21 is super young for a major league starter, and he doesn't turn 21 until March. He's also not taking playing time of anyone deserving it. He's also probably helping revenue.  Not only is he at the right level despite "struggles", but he should have been here last year. This is a much different conversation than if he was worth a 3-4th round pick in redraft.

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5 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

This is the ultimate "hindsight is 20/20" post.  I mean come on.  Are you preaching naivete in the Soto and Acuna threads?  He was far and away the best prospect coming into this season, and he mashed the minors.  Can you please provide any evidence that more time in the minors will help?  And I'm not talking about his current MLB results that have you upset.  Based on what he had already done IN THE MINORS, what more could he do?!  It is just gonna take time, but he is where he should be.  

My point with any prospect was "Pump The Brakes".

Theres no guarantees with ANY prospect. When I grabbed Acuna and Soto I didnt expect them to be top 50 players right away (I certainly hoped they would be). The issue with Vlad is that a lot of people were saying he would be a top 25 player right away which, to me , was crazy and he was getting picked in the top 50 in redraft leagues which is almost equally crazy.

I still believe he will be a great player and very likely a top 25 but the expectations were just insane for a 20 year old.

 

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2 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

My point with any prospect was "Pump The Brakes".

Theres no guarantees with ANY prospect. When I grabbed Acuna and Soto I didnt expect them to be top 50 players right away (I certainly hoped they would be). The issue with Vlad is that a lot of people were saying he would be a top 25 player right away which, to me , was crazy and he was getting picked in the top 50 in redraft leagues which is almost equally crazy.

I still believe he will be a great player and very likely a top 25 but the expectations were just insane for a 20 year old.

 

I have no problem with those points.  Which is why I didn't quote you lol.  I quoted him because of the idea being thrown around that he should be sent back down to the minors.  And while there are no guarantees, people are bound to get excited about top prospects coming up.  As level-headed managers, most can sift through and make their own judgments.

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2 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

I have no problem with those points.  Which is why I didn't quote you lol.  I quoted him because of the idea being thrown around that he should be sent back down to the minors.  And while there are no guarantees, people are bound to get excited about top prospects coming up.  As level-headed managers, most can sift through and make their own judgments.

 

Things go in cycles.  We had Trout, and then people became obsessed with Profar.  I think the Bryant/Acuna ADPs were good, but they were closer to pick 100 than 40.   I still think we might see a monster 2nd half from Vlad.

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6 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

I have no problem with those points.  Which is why I didn't quote you lol.  I quoted him because of the idea being thrown around that he should be sent back down to the minors.  And while there are no guarantees, people are bound to get excited about top prospects coming up.  As level-headed managers, most can sift through and make their own judgments.

Yea, theres no way he should be in the minors.

I wouldnt count out a huge second half (Like Acuna last season) where he ends up being top 50.

Edited by RoadApple
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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

Things go in cycles.  We had Trout, and then people became obsessed with Profar.  I think the Bryant/Acuna ADPs were good, but they were closer to pick 100 than 40.   I still think we might see a monster 2nd half from Vlad.

I was just about to post this.  Despite the struggles so far, would anyone really be all that surprised if he goes off soon?  It's warming up.  He's getting adjusted.  The talent is elite.  

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2 minutes ago, Von Hayes said:

I was just about to post this.  Despite the struggles so far, would anyone really be all that surprised if he goes off soon?  It's warming up.  He's getting adjusted.  The talent is elite.  

Wouldn't be at all surprised. He's only going to get better.

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33 minutes ago, Von Hayes said:

I was just about to post this.  Despite the struggles so far, would anyone really be all that surprised if he goes off soon?  It's warming up.  He's getting adjusted.  The talent is elite.  

 

The raw talent is elite, but the plate approach isn't and we've gotten past the point where those type of peripherals tend to stabilize. I'm hoping for 20-.285 ROS but that's probably the upper limit of realistic outcomes at this stage, IMO. 

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10 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

The raw talent is elite, but the plate approach isn't and we've gotten past the point where those type of peripherals tend to stabilize. I'm hoping for 20-.285 ROS but that's probably the upper limit of realistic outcomes at this stage, IMO. 

Ronald Acuna 1st Half 2018: .269 Avg, 7.7% BB Rate, 28% K Rate, .798 OPS

Ronald Acuna 2nd Half 2018: .304 Avg, 10% BB Rate, 24% K Rate, .968 OPS.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr so far: .255 Avg, 8.7% BB Rate, 18.6% K Rate, .759 OPS

The big difference to me between the two players is the supporting cast, Vlad has a bunch of turds hitting in front and behind him while Acuna has All-Stars up and down his line-up.

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19 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

Ronald Acuna 1st Half 2018: .269 Avg, 7.7% BB Rate, 28% K Rate, .798 OPS

Ronald Acuna 2nd Half 2018: .304 Avg, 10% BB Rate, 24% K Rate, .968 OPS.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr so far: .255 Avg, 8.7% BB Rate, 18.6% K Rate, .759 OPS

The big difference to me between the two players is the supporting cast, Vlad has a bunch of turds hitting in front and behind him while Acuna has All-Stars up and down his line-up.

While true this year, and if Donaldson has found the magic again, if Riley keeps going nuts... look out!!!

Last year was more of an anomaly. It took a career year from Markakis, Albies surge, Ender playing well, Camargo coming from obscurity and being super clutch... it was just a ton of things clicking somehow that weren’t expected by and large. Steady Freddie was the only real sure thing going into 2018, evident by Vegas’s really low over/under betting total for wins on the season. Braves bested that over by about 20 games and Vegas doesn’t miss very often! 

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I still laugh remembering when posters said he was going to be the top fantasy producer..  I just Hope he can get into the top 100 one day.. He is not must see!

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6 minutes ago, Krambone said:

I still laugh remembering when posters said he was going to be the top fantasy producer..  I just Hope he can get into the top 100 one day.. He is not must see!

I made this literally Bold but it was already figuratively Bold.

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17 minutes ago, Krambone said:

I still laugh remembering when posters said he was going to be the top fantasy producer..  I just Hope he can get into the top 100 one day.. He is not must see!

 

In the context of a fantasy thread, what does this even mean?

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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20 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

In the context of a fantasy thread, what does this even mean?

Nobody knows man... but it’s provocative! (Pop culture humor) 

Edited by LarryChip10
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[Comment deleted.  Find a better way to engage with others than calling them "delusional fan boys."  Also, remember that dynasty leagues (a) exist and (b) are a common topic of conversation in outlook threads.]

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9 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Will his 2020 ADP be higher than his 2019 ADP?

It shouldn’t no matter how hot he finishes.  Bottom line this was a gross overvalue from fantasy community.  Bad lineup, zero steals.  You basically have to go Stanton a few years ago to return value at his ADP at that price tag.  In juiced ball era finding his stats isn’t very tough.  He’s got immense bat talent so there will always be a reach level for 2-3 years unless he really tanks.  But we also have to remind ourselves this isn’t an Acuna.  There isn’t any SBs coming as - 6’0 260 pounder.  So his entire value is tied into hit tool and running into enough runs and RBIs in a good lineup to offset that.  He doesn’t have any of those.  

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Doing the HR derby. First confirmed guy. 

 

He should try hitting one out of the infield in a real game 1st 

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1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

Doing the HR derby. First confirmed guy. 

 

He should try hitting one out of the infield in a real game 1st 

This certainly doesn’t help matters.  He’s still trying to get his feet wet in the bigs and now they’re putting him into the elite power hitting competition.  I’m sure he can put on a show in BP for fans which is nice.  But once again this is putting cart before the horse.  The pressure this guy is under is instrumountable.  

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On 6/20/2019 at 7:57 AM, RoadApple said:

Ronald Acuna 1st Half 2018: .269 Avg, 7.7% BB Rate, 28% K Rate, .798 OPS

Ronald Acuna 2nd Half 2018: .304 Avg, 10% BB Rate, 24% K Rate, .968 OPS.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr so far: .255 Avg, 8.7% BB Rate, 18.6% K Rate, .759 OPS

The big difference to me between the two players is the supporting cast, Vlad has a bunch of turds hitting in front and behind him while Acuna has All-Stars up and down his line-up.

Isn't the big difference the 1st half K Rate? Bullish.

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Only hitting a home  run every five games played.  Disappointing.

Edited by BMcP

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

Only hitting a home  run every five games played.  Disappointing.

 

a) Your math is off

2) He has a 96 wRC+ and a 0.3 fWAR in nearly 200 PA. Let's stop acting like his lack of performance is an invention of posters in this thread. He's been objectively below league average. 

Edited by absknicks
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12 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

a) Your math is off

2) He has a 96 wRC+ and a 0.3 fWAR in nearly 200 PA. Let's stop acting like his lack of performance is an invention of posters in this thread. He's been objectively below league average. 

My bad, absknicks.  A home run a little over every six games.  Mea culpa.

A 0.3 fWAR means he has been objectively above average.

Edited by BMcP
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"We can count Statcast among the many observers who believe that the ultra-talented Guerrero should be having a better rookie season. After all, the 20 year old is well better than the average MLB player in barrel rate (9.4 percent), hard hit rate (44.6 percent) and strikeout rate (18.7 percent). His legendary plate discipline has yet to show up in the Majors and his launch angle (7.6) could stand to improve, but Guerrero remains someone to acquire rather than trade away."

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-baseball-batting-averages-separating-the-lucky-from-the-unlucky-174249060.html

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