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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

He was 0-3 with a walk tonight when I posted that. The RBI double came after (reverse jinx?).

I watch most of his PA and haven't been impressed with the lack of plate discipline. The very recent uptick in walks that that you mentioned might be a ray of hope but I think it's going to take some time for him to revamp his approach and really become a fantasy asset. Hope I'm wrong as I'm stuck with him ROS at this point. 

 

His plate discipline is fine. His walk, strikeout and whiff rates are all better than league average and his contact rate is right at league average. Pitchers are not aggressively attacking him either as he has seen just 35.7% of pitches in the zone this year which is the 2nd lowest in baseball (min. 230 PAs). League average is 42%, so it is not like pitchers are simply overpowering him or fooling him to the extent that his skills come into question. My concern is the groundball rate, which is high at 48% but probably related to him getting so few pitches in the zone.

Also as you mentioned he is walking more as his BB% is up to 15.2% over the last 15 games.  His K% over that same span is just 19.7%, which is perfectly acceptable.

I think this is simply a matter of him getting very pitches to do damage with and umpires giving him the rookie treatment on borderline calls perhaps making him swing at and roll over on pitches he might otherwise lay off.

A big second half is not out of the question.

 

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Has there ever been a case where the HR derby actually helped someone figure their swing out? He looked pretty good in practicing for it the other day.

I like the axe bat idea that was proposed on the previous page. He can get one from Grichuk. Maybe that could help him elevate more.

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21 minutes ago, Bobby Blue said:

Has there ever been a case where the HR derby actually helped someone figure their swing out? He looked pretty good in practicing for it the other day.

I like the axe bat idea that was proposed on the previous page. He can get one from Grichuk. Maybe that could help him elevate more.

I actually just saw that video and was thinking the same thing. People have to remember vlad was brought up differently. The lights and cameras and excitement of the derby are a different “pressure” than the “you need to perform and carry the team” pressure he’s been getting. He’s use to the former and blossoms with it. I do wonder if it’ll help him. I think the problem with analyzing numbers is a big part of the problem is in his head. HR derby might give him the slight confidence boost he needs along with the added time off.

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6 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

His plate discipline is fine. His walk, strikeout and whiff rates are all better than league average and his contact rate is right at league average. Pitchers are not aggressively attacking him either as he has seen just 35.7% of pitches in the zone this year which is the 2nd lowest in baseball (min. 230 PAs). League average is 42%, so it is not like pitchers are simply overpowering him or fooling him to the extent that his skills come into question. My concern is the groundball rate, which is high at 48% but probably related to him getting so few pitches in the zone.

Also as you mentioned he is walking more as his BB% is up to 15.2% over the last 15 games.  His K% over that same span is just 19.7%, which is perfectly acceptable.

I think this is simply a matter of him getting very pitches to do damage with and umpires giving him the rookie treatment on borderline calls perhaps making him swing at and roll over on pitches he might otherwise lay off.

A big second half is not out of the question.

 

 

He needs to stop swinging at the low pitch. I've watched him pound balls into the dirt countless times these last few weeks. The plate discipline may be fine by leaguewide standards but it's certainly not as advertised or as advanced as we were led to believe. 

Edited by absknicks
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Yeah. I mean, if he's seeing the "2nd lowest" percentage of pitches in the zone (which I'm not sure I buy all these Baseball Solutions (BS for short) stats), then shouldn't he be among the league leaders in walks and/or BB%? Or, at the very least, be able to get ahead in counts until he gets something good to hit?

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8 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Can we just call a duck a duck here on Vlad right now? 

What exactly is a duck? 🦆🦆🦆

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10 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Can we just call a duck a duck here on Vlad right now? 

Vlad is garbage and should be in the minors

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On 7/3/2019 at 9:41 PM, Dr. Whom said:

Vlad is garbage and should be in the minors

 

Right, because after lighting up every level of the minors he's clearly going to learn anything there.  Despite all the complaining he's still a league average hitter, so he's right where he belongs.

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On 7/3/2019 at 7:01 PM, Fiveohnine said:

Yeah. I mean, if he's seeing the "2nd lowest" percentage of pitches in the zone (which I'm not sure I buy all these Baseball Solutions (BS for short) stats), then shouldn't he be among the league leaders in walks and/or BB%? Or, at the very least, be able to get ahead in counts until he gets something good to hit?

 

Probably easier said than done for an anxious rookie getting his first taste of the big leagues. Plenty of players that end up having good plate discipline struggle with chasing out of the zone their rookie year. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, AngelsFan03 said:

 

Right, because after lighting up every level of the minors he's clearly going to learn anything there.  Despite all the complaining he's still a league average hitter, so he's right where he belongs.

 

He's also just 20 and the team has no playoff aspirations this year. Biggio, Guriel are getting PAs, so I'm not sure it makes sense to send him the minors to play someone else. 

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11 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He’s batting .247 now, so he’s basically Khris Davis without the power.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree that up until this point he has been a bad fantasy asset. 

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1 hour ago, 2014olympicgold said:

His natural power is being shown in his Derby warmups he's doing. It's just learning how to make contact with MLB pitchers.

Agreed...he profiles as an elite softball hitter

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1 minute ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Batting third tonight 👀

 

I think you meant

baTtiNG 3rD tOniGhT

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28 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Vlad GroundhogDay Jr.

 

Hits his fair share of lazy flyballs too. It’s pretty rare he actually barrels one up. 

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Stand by what I said in April. No team shows up buried by the third inning more than Montoyos bunch. They are helping screw him up. He’s going to get sent down I think 

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13 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

Left the game due to stomach ache?🙄 

Too many pre game tacos! That spicy pork is ooohhh so good, but occasionally turns on ya! 

IDK what to say fellas, he's been bad bad. Maybe he will get the anti-jinx of the HR derby, and instead of it ruining his second half, it will bring him to the promised land! Long term he's fine, but I'd honestly be bailing in re-draft! Sad but true! :(

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