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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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On 7/16/2019 at 3:03 AM, 96mnc said:

 

His hands are as explosive as any I've seen from a RHB.

He's 20 years old and people have lost perspective on how crazy it is that a 20 year old is in MLB period.   Spoiled by Soto, Tatis, and to an extent Acuna.  Even Trout and Arod struggled somewhat in their first exposure.

 

Plus the Toronto hitting coach is beyond putrid so he's getting no help from the coaching.

People drafted him (or ranked him) at a price where he'd have to nail it from jump without any adjustment period.  

Bingo! Another one who struggled out of the gate was Bregman. I don't own Vlad and really haven't followed him that much this season, but I would bet on Vlad getting it right and making some serious noise. Some of the same people who are in here crying about Vlad were in the Bregman thread when he was called up a few years ago.

http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2016/08/06/alex-bregman-struggling-find-success-houston/

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13 minutes ago, Z06vette said:

Bingo! Another one who struggled out of the gate was Bregman. I don't own Vlad and really haven't followed him that much this season, but I would bet on Vlad getting it right and making some serious noise. Some of the same people who are in here crying about Vlad were in the Bregman thread when he was called up a few years ago.

http://www.baseballessential.com/news/2016/08/06/alex-bregman-struggling-find-success-houston/

 

Bregman put up a 114+ wRC+ in his first 217 PA. Vlad has an 88 wRC+ in 278 PA. Their struggles are not comparable. 

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7 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’ve had this set circled for a month on the calendar for future #14 overall pick in 2020 redrafts.  You don’t need super clean, crisp, vitamin D infused air to slaughter Zimmermann, Chuck Norris, and some guy who is ruining Juan’s last name — Gregory Soto.  This could be the worst talent trio that Major League Baseball has seen since the Mariners ran Leake, Kerosine Caraseti and Milone out.  There isn’t a single redeeming quality either of these 3 Tiger arms possess inside the diamond.  If this soon to be top 15 draft pick in 2020 drafts can’t hit these bums, then Mevins might have a heart attack and I’ll have to work overtime to revive him.  

You sound like the people who were excited for the 1 HR he hit at Coors. :rolleyes:

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58 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Bregman put up a 114+ wRC+ in his first 217 PA. Vlad has an 88 wRC+ in 278 PA. Their struggles are not comparable. 

Fair enough. My point though is not every stud prospect will become a superstar as soon as they hit the Majors. In many situations there is a adjustment period. I'm lost on the age factor, or maybe it is pass my bed time. Feel free to elaborate.

Edited by Z06vette

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6 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

You sound like the people who were excited for the 1 HR he hit at Coors. :rolleyes:

Even Trevor Story struggled somewhat before becoming a superstar hitter, right?

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On 7/15/2019 at 3:03 PM, brockpapersizer said:

I never paid the price tag of an 80/80 bat on him in his age 20 season. If you did, thats on you and to everyone else that did.

 

I think this thread is a lot more drawn out than it had to be because of the whole crowd who keeps saying "it's your fault for drafting him" rather than just admitting Vlad Jr. is sucking, point blank.

80/80 price tag? I mean he's not living up to a 30/30 price tag. So why even make that argument?

Basically EVERYONE posting in this thread would have eventually drafted him and paid too much, no matter how far of a drop in ADP it would have taken. So why bother pretending otherwise?

I mean, personally I'm glad I passed on him. And yes, part of my analysis was that he was a rookie. But I'm not going to act like it was because of my outstanding, genius prescience. I mean eventually I would have taken him and paid too much. It's a joke that anyone in this thread would pretend otherwise.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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Remember that development is not linear.  And comparing one player to another has limited value since no two players ever develop in exactly the same way.  Vlad hasn’t had the success in his first 250 ABs that many of us were hoping for and I don’t begrudge anyone dropping him in 10- and 12-team redrafts.  But he doesn’t all of a sudden suck at hitting the baseball.  He’s just not adjusting as quickly as we thought he would.  I’m personally holding in my redraft because I can afford to let him sit on my bench, and I’d hate to see him hit .325 with 15 HRs in Aug/Sep on someone else’s roster.  IMO, it’s a matter of when, not if, he becomes a fantasy monster.  It could be this season, it could be next, it could be 2021.  But it is going to happen.

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

I think this thread is a lot more drawn out than it had to be because of the whole crowd who keeps saying "it's your fault for drafting him" rather than just admitting Vlad Jr. is sucking, point blank.

 

Nobody is disputing he is sucking right now. It's legitimately objectively true. Just like it's objectively true that Acuna and Soto had a much much better year 20 season compared to Vlad.  You can't argue otherwise.

Fantasy sports is about picking the right players. If you pick the wrong players, it's on you, it's the whole point. Drafting a rookie with no major experience with an early pick is an obvious risk, it was discussed plenty.  I take plenty of risks with picks, when they don't go my way I don't blame the player. They owe us nothing. 

 

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50 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I take plenty of risks with picks, when they don't go my way I don't blame the player. They owe us nothing. 

 

Now that is true. The idea that it has anything to do with an "80/80 pricetag" isn't, since he hasn't lived up to any pricetag at all really.

I don't think people are blaming him for his ADP. They are merely blaming him for sucking, which they should. And he owes us a lot more than we owe him. I mean he's not even paying US taxes. Fans pay his salary.

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16 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

This thread has gotten out of hand. This kid is 20 years old. He will be fine. If you can't handle it, drop him in your redrafts. If you got him in a keeper or dynasty, you're set. Just relax.

Why do you think that though? You don’t know he’s going to be fine. Other guys were 20 and didn’t look like slop. Bellinger, Acuna, we can name them. 

He isn’t a lock just like Harper isn’t that good of a player. Nothing is certain and there’s no basis to say he is more than what we are seeing. Which again is a bummer. Like he’s either sitting today or going 1-4 against Jordan Zimmerman with a bloop. It’s certain. 

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Most guys struggle if they're promoted to the majors at a very young age. The fact that he was promoted so quickly is a great sign, as is the damage he did throughout the minors. 

Nobody knows he'll be fine, but nobody knows anything as a guarantee, even for proven players. Age and pedigree still makes him among the best bets to make it as an impact player. 

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Clearly this guy is getting better pitches to hit when he bats 8th or 9th. Why in the world isn't the manager hitting him there every day?!

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2 minutes ago, rcarena said:

Most guys struggle if they're promoted to the majors at a very young age. The fact that he was promoted so quickly is a great sign, as is the damage he did throughout the minors. 

Nobody knows he'll be fine, but nobody knows anything as a guarantee, even for proven players. Age and pedigree still makes him among the best bets to make it as an impact player. 

 

I love this. He went from best prospect in the history of the world to a “best bet” to maybe turn it around. 

A lot of guys tear up the minor leagues and fail. I don’t think it’s Vladdy, but he needs to get sent back down to get things figured out. 

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2 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Clearly this guy is getting better pitches to hit when he bats 8th or 9th. Why in the world isn't the manager hitting him there every day?!

spacer.png

 

Those 4 plate appearances were heavenly. 

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15 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 

He isn’t a lock just like Harper isn’t that good of a player

 

While he hasn't been a consistent 1st round earner in Standard 5x5 fantasy leagues, Bryce Harper is indeed a very good baseball player. If a team had all Bryce Harper caliber hitters, it would be the best lineup in baseball rather easily. There are certainly better hitters, Trout is considerably better, but brushing off Harper like he's nobody seems wrong. Career 386 obp hitter with power.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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I would just hope those who scouted him personally were able to distinguish between the consensus opinion and their own eyes, and draft accordingly.

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2 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

I love this. He went from best prospect in the history of the world to a “best bet” to maybe turn it around. 

A lot of guys tear up the minor leagues and fail. I don’t think it’s Vladdy, but he needs to get sent back down to get things figured out. 

My stance hasn't changed at all on him. My point was "the odds are he'll make it." He's still the same level of prospect, lol at thinking otherwise. 

Maybe sending him down a bit will help, I don't disagree on that point. 

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Personally, in most cases, I would rather draft a proven player than a 20 year old rookie, especially as high as he was going. What made him an easy pass for me was that oblique injury, but he still went early regardless in so many drafts.

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25 minutes ago, rcarena said:

My stance hasn't changed at all on him. My point was "the odds are he'll make it." He's still the same level of prospect, lol at thinking otherwise. 

Maybe sending him down a bit will help, I don't disagree on that point. 

 

I’m only calling out the absurd expectations. We all saw what he can do in the derby. He just needs to put it all together. 

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I actually got him later than I've seen in most drafts, but I really hope he gets going quick in my redraft league.  Nobody will give me much for him and there's no way I'm dropping him. I've held on this long so I'm in for the long haul, but I sure have let a lot of good players get scooped up off the waiver wire this year while holding a spot for Vlad.  Having said all of that, he's just too talented not to break out at some point, i just really, really hope it's this season.  And I still would bet that he does.

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I'll ride him on my bench all year if I have to, waiting for that breakout. Ceiling is too high to cut bait. Who am I going to replace him with? Cj Cron? I'll take my chances with Vladdy maybe putting together a good last couple of months. 

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Sat him for the first time all year.

Goes 3-5 and looks like he just missed a granny.

The breakout starts today. 

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Just now, DannyMcPot said:

Sat him for the first time all year.

Goes 3-5 and looks like he just missed a granny.

The breakout starts today. 

 

All he needed was some Tigers pitching to get him going..

 

3/5 and both outs were barreled to deep center field.

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