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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, cs3 said:

You have a really short term memory, don't you?

 

 

No great prospects guys... aside from the 5 guys who would be at or near the top of every farm system in baseball! Nice take

Why don’t you name what they have organizationally aside from the five I named; across any level. I want names. Go ahead I’ll stay in the thread and wait. Also biggio and Jansen are fringe. 

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1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

The only thing I ever wondered about was how he got an 80 hit tool; first ever. And even though he looks awesome, I still wonder it.

to me that seems a product of some great talent, hype, and last name/pedigree. Someone in scouting gave him that for those reasons. Good for the sport that he’s looking better though 

The 80 hit tool projections started showing up here and there after he hit .400 in a 19 y.o. half season at AA. 70 was a clear consensus before and after, and there are always a couple guys who come in high on every player. I agree that its silly to break the scale that way, as if anyone's going to come back and label you a scouting genius on the off chance he careers .335/550.

But I do think there are enough 2nd generation guys with the head and body for pro sports (Griffey, Curry and so on), that it's reasonable to weigh last name highly on kids who can clearly play. It looks like Toronto is already 2 for 3 on that bet and nobody is writing Cavan off just yet. Is anyone really surprised that the Spawn of Sabonis knows his way around the rim?

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26 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

I have scoured their levels pretty close.

they don’t have a ton aside from Vlad himself, Gurriel jr. Bichette, Biggio who is fringe, Jansen. Honestly no great prospects. They have a long ways to go. He’s going to be on a lot of losing teams. Hopefully it doesn’t permeate his performance 

 

im talking fantasy purposes.  Toronto has had very successful offensive players even with bad pitching.  Joey Bats, EE etc 

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15 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Why don’t you name what they have organizationally aside from the five I named; across any level. I want names. Go ahead I’ll stay in the thread and wait. Also biggio and Jansen are fringe. 

You must not understand how farm systems are valued.

But I'll play your game anyway:

Pearson

Groshans

Kay

Manoah

Pardinho

Richardson

Kloffenstien

Those are all FV45's and above off the top of my head.

I'll name another dozen and a half 40's if you really want me to keep going.

 

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4 minutes ago, cs3 said:

You must not understand how farm systems are valued.

But I'll play your game anyway:

Pearson

Groshans

Kay

Manoah

Pardinho

Richardson

Kloffenstien

Those are all FV45's and above off the top of my head.

I'll name another dozen and a half 40's if you really want me to keep going.

 

 

Don't forget

Miguel Hiraldo

Chavez Young

Alejandro Kirk

Gabriel Moreno

Kevin Smith

Griffin Connine

Orelvis Martinez

 

Jays need to fill the 7 - 8 - 9 hole + DH ... thats NOT the end of the world ... And their SP prospects are elite!

Edited by ItsMeMario
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40 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

I get what you're saying. But you're also counting your chickens before they've hatched. I'm not saying they won't. Just that you've already counted them.

Also, selling before the homerun derby would have been selling low, not after. I think some people probably got decent value at that point.

 

I disagree. After half a year of being terrible with a high draft price, I doubt, with little exception, anyone was able to get anything great for Vlad after the home run derby.  There are some cases where anything can happen, but someone who e paid a high price based off a home run derby was operating somehow worse than the guy who overpaid to begin with.   In theory, sure his value went up a tad after the derby, but it was miles below where it was before he got called up still. So, even if you made that deal after the derby, you still did poorly most likely.

 

I have no redraft shares of Vlad, so I'm not counting any chickens for this year. Just terrible analysis in this thread from start to finish.  I'm not the one who counted my chickens by selling Vlad at the All Star Break or determined he didn't have a major league swing. All I've consistently said is he will be good, his first few months as a 20 year old are pretty meaningless in terms of evaluating him, and that drafting a rookie with a 3/4th round pick is incredibly risky.  I'll count those chickens all day long. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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15 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

I have no redraft shares of Vlad, so I'm not counting any chickens for this year.

[...]

I'll count those chickens all day long. 

 

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22 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I disagree. After half a year of being terrible with a high draft price, I doubt, with little exception, anyone was able to get anything great for Vlad after the home run derby.  There are some cases where anything can happen, but someone who e paid a high price based off a home run derby was operating somehow worse than the guy who overpaid to begin with.   In theory, sure his value went up a tad after the derby, but it was miles below where it was before he got called up still. So, even if you made that deal after the derby, you still did poorly most likely.

 

I mean it really just depends. Someone who got Aaron Judge for him might have thought they struck gold. Someone else may have gotten Nelson Cruz for him and really did. Josh Donaldson would have been reasonable and profitable. All I'm saying is that selling LOW would have been before the HR derby, not after. That's just by definition.

Quote

I have no redraft shares of Vlad, so I'm not counting any chickens for this year.

 

Obviously, if someone is using a rookie year HR derby as their frame of reference, they're talking about redraft and not dynasty. So I'm just going to assume that's not the point you're making.

And if you're already banking on "laughing for years to come" and those years have not yet come, then that's counting chickens, again just by definition. And count away, there are worse bets out there. But they're still just bets.

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6 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

 

And if you're already banking on "laughing for years to come" and those years have not yet come, then that's counting chickens, again just by definition. And count away, there are worse bets out there. But they're still just bets.

 

Despite you using quotes, I never said laughing.  But yes, I do think it's funny that someone 2-3 months in said he didn't have a swing suitable for the majors. That seems funny to me, I probably won't laugh about it though. I genuinely don't even want a pat on the back here either, saying Vlad will be good is a lukewarm take. Was obvious to most people.  It's genuinely not impressive to say the consensus #1 prospect will be good, especially as prospect evaluators get better with more information. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Ok. I apologize for misquoting you. The important part was actually the "years to come" anyway. But I think you know that.

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27 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I disagree. After half a year of being terrible with a high draft price, I doubt, with little exception, anyone was able to get anything great for Vlad after the home run derby.  There are some cases where anything can happen, but someone who e paid a high price based off a home run derby was operating somehow worse than the guy who overpaid to begin with.   In theory, sure his value went up a tad after the derby, but it was miles below where it was before he got called up still. So, even if you made that deal after the derby, you still did poorly most likely.

 

I have no redraft shares of Vlad, so I'm not counting any chickens for this year. Just terrible analysis in this thread from start to finish.  I'm not the one who counted my chickens by selling Vlad at the All Star Break or determined he didn't have a major league swing. All I've consistently said is he will be good, his first few months as a 20 year old are pretty meaningless in terms of evaluating him, and that drafting a rookie with a 3/4th round pick is incredibly risky.  I'll count those chickens all day long. 

FOIA request: are you even in a redraft league?

FWIW I'm shamelessly counting a gazillion chickens in dynasty and deep keeper. They will hatch or they won't, but this guys got more eggs in the incubator than anyone I can remember and yeah, the offers I've turned down qualifies as counting. Here's some chickens coming down the pike: over/under on MVP's -- 3 (1 as a Jay* and 2 from greener pastures)

*sorry Mevins but there's enough talent brewing atop that lineup to eke out a wildcard in spite of mismanagement, see '15 &'16 Mets

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The guy is 20 years old, has “struggled”, is playing on one of the worst and youngest teams in baseball.......... and is still on dang near 100

RBI pace. 

 

This dude is gonna be an absolute RBI machine. 

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On 7/19/2019 at 9:38 AM, Von Hayes said:

Remember that development is not linear.  And comparing one player to another has limited value since no two players ever develop in exactly the same way.  Vlad hasn’t had the success in his first 250 ABs that many of us were hoping for and I don’t begrudge anyone dropping him in 10- and 12-team redrafts.  But he doesn’t all of a sudden suck at hitting the baseball.  He’s just not adjusting as quickly as we thought he would.  I’m personally holding in my redraft because I can afford to let him sit on my bench, and I’d hate to see him hit .325 with 15 HRs in Aug/Sep on someone else’s roster.  IMO, it’s a matter of when, not if, he becomes a fantasy monster.  It could be this season, it could be next, it could be 2021.  But it is going to happen.

I think it might be happening!

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The haters, of which there were many, wanted to proclaim the 20 year old phenom as a massive disappointment.

 

Every AB now is must see TV. Swinging with confidence and unreal power. 

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9 minutes ago, 20Duval904 said:

The haters, of which there were many, wanted to proclaim the 20 year old phenom as a massive disappointment.

 

Every AB now is must see TV. Swinging with confidence and unreal power. 

 

I’d be utterly shocked if at least one of them doesn’t stop by to talk about how it doesn’t count because it was against Baltimore pitching. 

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

You must not understand how farm systems are valued.

But I'll play your game anyway:

Pearson

Groshans

Kay

Manoah

Pardinho

Richardson

Kloffenstien

Those are all FV45's and above off the top of my head.

I'll name another dozen and a half 40's if you really want me to keep going.

 

 

How many of them are household/top 100 list guys? 75% of these guys won’t be big leaguers. I have interviewed Manoah personally. What are you basing him on? Has he thrown 40 professional ball innings yet? 

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30 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 

How many of them are household/top 100 list guys? 75% of these guys won’t be big leaguers. I have interviewed Manoah personally. What are you basing him on? Has he thrown 40 professional ball innings yet? 

 

How many teams consist of all guys that were top 100 list guys? Weird position to take. 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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