Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,672]

From yesterday:

 

 

[20Duval904 141]

I know there were lots of articles and analysts that compared Vladdy to a young Miguel Cabrera last season and in the preseason, and I thought this was an interesting comparison so far..

 

Rookie Miggy: 20 years old, 87 G, 346 PA, 12 HR, 21 2B, 24.3% K, 7.2% BB, .268 BA, .793 OPS

 

Rookie Vladdy: 20 years old, 85 G, 358 PA, 13 HR, 20 2B, 17.6% K, 9.5% BB, .273 BA, .800 OPS

[brockpapersizer 10,420]

6 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

From yesterday:

 

 

 

Imagine if he had a swing that would hold up to major league pitching, then we'd really have a player!

[sleepysock 618]

Only a matter of time before the 320-40-120 seasons start piling up. Adjustment period is near over and we're finally seeing the hype become reality.

[IDGAFOS 169]

21 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

Only a matter of time before the 320-40-120 seasons start piling up. Adjustment period is near over and we're finally seeing the hype become reality.

Side bets on this never happening once let alone 'piling up'.

[Baur10 2,030]

If we're taking side bets hows about this one:

1) What's his ADP next year?

2) Does he over or under-perform that ADP?

[20Duval904 141]

4 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

If we're taking side bets hows about this one:

1) What's his ADP next year?

2) Does he over or under-perform that ADP?

 

He probably goes somewhere between 25-40 and I suspect he returns that type of value.

[IDGAFOS 169]

15 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

If we're taking side bets hows about this one:

1) What's his ADP next year?

2) Does he over or under-perform that ADP?

1) 40's like this year.

2)40/60 yes/no

 

 

Quote

Only a matter of time before the 320-40-120 seasons start piling up

i'd take under on this one all day though.  

 

i think he's going to be really good but lordy the hype is going to be hard to match.  bo bichette is a lucky mofo

Edited August 10, 2019 by IDGAFOS
bo last name typo

[sleepysock 618]

1 hour ago, IDGAFOS said:

Side bets on this never happening once let alone 'piling up'.

I mean it's a bit hyperbolic but he will put up those sort of seasons in his prime. Maybe only 315-35-115. Ok, fine. But given his approach and how hard he hits the ball a baseline of 300-30-100 (essentially a prime Jose Abreu) with a big arrow pointing up seems more than fair.

[MJDrocks 230]

His ADP will be 2-3 rounds more than savvy fantasy players are willing to pay. He's a very, very hot name so he'll get scooped up earlier than you expect.

[hailtoyourvictor 1,593]

12 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

Side bets on this never happening once let alone 'piling up'.

 

The average might never get to .320 but .300 40 120 seems likely.

Edited August 10, 2019 by hailtoyourvictor

[brockpapersizer 10,420]

5 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

The average might never get to .320 but .300 40 120 seems likely.

 

I think it's incredibly premature to write him off from being an elite average asset. 320 is an average I wouldn't project anyone for, even if they have done it. I'd say Altuve in recent years might have been the closest guy I'd project to hit 320 season. That being said, Vlad could certainly do it. 

[hailtoyourvictor 1,593]

7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think it's incredibly premature to write him off from being an elite average asset. 320 is an average I wouldn't project anyone for, even if they have done it. I'd say Altuve in recent years might have been the closest guy I'd project to hit 320 season. That being said, Vlad could certainly do it. 

 

What makes you think I wrote him off?

[Superdood43 64]

I can easily see prime numbers of .310 35 110 becoming the norm for Vlad. 

Lots of things people aren't really taking into account is the lineup around him being very young & pretty awful if I'm honest. The kids should only get better(Gurriel,Guerrero,Biggio,Bichette,Jansen) not to mention whoever else they may add down the road when they're closer to contention.

Vlad is probably the youngest everyday player in the league right now(not 100% sure on this but the kid turned 20 in March for crying out loud)

His last 30 games after struggling/adjusting more to MLB pitchers he's been going at a .325/.384/.544 clip, I think this could be more his pace moving forward.

His peripherals have always been outstanding and he's basically always played above his age. 

I love that I have him in my dynasty league because I will enjoy that monster production for the next 10+ years as he and that lineup around him in that offensive haven known as the AL East get better.

 

[Dr. Whom 2,886]

But with his vitamin d issue and poor conditioning, he can never play more than 3 games in a row. Outside the top 100 for me

[jfazz23 2,340]

i think hes gonna go prob 3rd round  in 12 teamers 

[ReyesMurphyWright 709]

I firmly believed that being rested this frequently is not something that should be expected to carry over into next season. Probably just the result of the Jays being all the way out of contention + this being the first time Vlad has ever played a full season, and they don't see any reason not to lighten his workload.

But yeah, I'm not discounting his stock for next year because I'm worried he may be rested frequently going forward. He's 21 years old and the Blue Jays will always have the option to DH him anyway. 

[Cmilne23 10,197]

On 7/20/2019 at 8:33 PM, daynlokki said:

Called this lol.  Negative WAR currently and a .939 fielding percentage.  He's just not equipped to make adjustments when he never had to in the minors.

Damn Dayn this one didn’t age too well.  Since this post he’s 26 for 71 (.366), with 4 homers and 20 RBIs in 18 games.  I’m going to guess he made some “adjustments.”

Edited August 11, 2019 by Cmilne23

[Dr. Whom 2,886]

5 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

I firmly believed that being rested this frequently is not something that should be expected to carry over into next season. Probably just the result of the Jays being all the way out of contention + this being the first time Vlad has ever played a full season, and they don't see any reason not to lighten his workload.

But yeah, I'm not discounting his stock for next year because I'm worried he may be rested frequently going forward. He's 21 years old and the Blue Jays will always have the option to DH him anyway. 

They could dh him now...but he or they don’t want that

[bradwatson 1,554]

Impressive battle against Aroldis yesterday. This guy's videos are great btw...

 

[RoadApple 402]

On 8/11/2019 at 2:19 AM, Superdood43 said:

I can easily see prime numbers of .310 35 110 becoming the norm for Vlad. 

Lots of things people aren't really taking into account is the lineup around him being very young & pretty awful if I'm honest. The kids should only get better(Gurriel,Guerrero,Biggio,Bichette,Jansen) not to mention whoever else they may add down the road when they're closer to contention.

Vlad is probably the youngest everyday player in the league right now(not 100% sure on this but the kid turned 20 in March for crying out loud)

His last 30 games after struggling/adjusting more to MLB pitchers he's been going at a .325/.384/.544 clip, I think this could be more his pace moving forward.

His peripherals have always been outstanding and he's basically always played above his age. 

I love that I have him in my dynasty league because I will enjoy that monster production for the next 10+ years as he and that lineup around him in that offensive haven known as the AL East get better.

 

This has been discussed ad nauseam in this thread (and elsewhere) and is a huge factor in his numbers. That being said I dont blame you for not reading an entire 45 page thread  

[ReyesMurphyWright 709]

15 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

They could dh him now...but he or they don’t want that

 

Yes, I realize that. But for the reasons I mentioned, I don't think this is something that will be the par for the course in future seasons for him. If every other fat slugging DH in MLB history can play just about every game, so can Vlad.

Edited August 12, 2019 by ReyesMurphyWright

[20Duval904 141]

2/4 with 3 R, RBI, and a BB tonight 

 

His 4 batted balls had exit velos of 111.9, 106.4, 99.5, and 94.5.

 

He is seeing the ball and smoking it.

[Cmilne23 10,197]

11 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

2/4 with 3 R, RBI, and a BB tonight 

 

His 4 batted balls had exit velos of 111.9, 106.4, 99.5, and 94.5.

 

He is seeing the ball and smoking it.

On base too much.  Should sit next game or 2.  

[daynlokki 188]

On 8/11/2019 at 11:15 AM, Cmilne23 said:

Damn Dayn this one didn’t age too well.  Since this post he’s 26 for 71 (.366), with 4 homers and 20 RBIs in 18 games.  I’m going to guess he made some “adjustments.”

And even then his WAR is 0.8.  Great job with that first round pick in dynasty leagues.