Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook

[jfazz23 2,529]

1 hour ago, 20Duval904 said:

No IL for Vladito... just inflammation.

 

 

 

 

 

probably not a good sign when a 20 year old already has knee problems...

[herschel 1,986]

Any weekly leaguers startIng him this week?

[osb_tensor 1,414]

16 minutes ago, herschel said:

Any weekly leaguers startIng him this week?

kind of hard to say since it depends on your other options. 

to keep this non-bench-coach, my opinion is that they'll baby him and if you have any warm-bodied other person available, it's probably best to err on the side of caution. they play six games, with a decently tough schedule for three games @LAD against kershaw, beuhler, and maeda. the second series @SEA doesn't scare me, but the park isn't exactly friendly to homers, so it doesn't seem like a prime week for him anyway.

🤷‍♂️

[bradwatson 1,593]

1 hour ago, herschel said:

Any weekly leaguers startIng him this week?

Definitely depends on other options but would be an easy sit for me, especially in a playoff matchup.

[daynlokki 423]

Can't start a D2D player in weekly leagues with a knee injury IMO.  He could come back and reinjure that pretty easily.

[Slimzy17 187]

Batting 3rd today.

[Baur10 2,085]

Great news that he's back, but you might want to give him another day on the bench with Kershaw on the mound tonight.

[hailtoyourvictor 1,652]

Since the All Star break:

 

.328 / .396 / .560

[sportsfreak2744 758]

100 hits in 96 games.

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

back in May on page 23 of this thread, I guessed a fair over/under would be his dad's rookie season .833 OPS. But that was way back when his struggles had started.

Right now he's slashing EXACTLY .282/.356/.477 (.833 OPS for those that don't like arithmetic).

[MSkibisky 776]

2 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

back in May on page 23 of this thread, I guessed a fair over/under would be his dad's rookie season .833 OPS. But that was way back when his struggles had started.

Right now he's slashing EXACTLY .282/.356/.477 (.833 OPS for those that don't like arithmetic).

go buy a powerball ticket

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

I would, but right now I think the over from back then would be feeling pretty good and the under bettors would be a bit worried.

[Baur10 2,085]

I can't speak for roto owners, but I gotta imagine head to head owners going into the playoffs aren't too cranky about his draft day price at this point. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Baur10

[brockpapersizer 11,401]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-accelerates-to-the-finish/

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

They're neck and neck at the stretch...

Vlad Sr. rookie OPS: .833

Vlad Jr current OPS: .821

[brockpapersizer 11,401]

7 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

They're neck and neck at the stretch...

Vlad Sr. rookie OPS: .833

Vlad Jr current OPS: .821

 

He was 2 years older. 

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

He was 2 years older. 

 

I pointed that out when I first mentioned it back on page 23. It's a fair point.

It's also a fair point that Vlad Sr. didn't grow up in MLB locker rooms, probably went undrafted in whatever pen/paper fantasy baseball leagues out there in 1996, and would've been a free pickup instead of a 3rd rounder.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Fiveohnine

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

The ball also wasn't juiced back in 1996. Some of players were. But not the ball.

[brockpapersizer 11,401]

I guess I fail to see the point of continuing bringing up a post from June comparing a player to another player over 20 years ago, especially since you took the under for Vlad Jr even though he was hundreds of points behind at the time. Everyone would have taken that under. At this point, it's actually kinda close. Wooops. 

In responding to a person who said Vlad would be great ROS you said  "there's a fine line between bold predictions and desperate prayers."

He's had a 149 WRC+ since that date.

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

28 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I guess I fail to see the point of continuing bringing up a post from June comparing a player to another player over 20 years ago, especially since you took the under for Vlad Jr even though he was hundreds of points behind at the time. Everyone would have taken that under. At this point, it's actually kinda close. Wooops. 

 

I'm not sure why you have a problem with me comparing this guy to his father. But I'm pretty sure it isn't against the rules, especially at this point in the season.

And actually, I said I think it would be a "fair bet" that I'd "probably pass on", which means I thought it would be very close. Too close to pay a vig in Vegas, for example. I didn't think it would be way under or way over or that "everyone" would take one side or the other. So it's silly to suggest that I insinuated anything like that.

If YOU felt the under was an easy bet that "everyone" would take, you had every opportunity to say it back then, instead of right now, in 20/20 hindsight. But we would have disagreed on the point back then as well. And you would STILL be wrong even in hindsight at this point, since it is actually close and not an easy bet either way.

Quote

In responding to a person who said Vlad would be great ROS you said  "there's a fine line between bold predictions and desperate prayers."

He's had a 149 WRC+ since that date.

 

Another mistruth. The poster you're referring to said Vlad would be "top 20 offense ROS", which remains incorrect by any measure, including wRC+.

Personally, I'm not a big fan of metrics that require ridiculous amounts of calculation and/or hidden figures. But even by that measure, Vlad Jr. isn't top 20 since July 9, which is when that post was made. He's been much better, to be sure (which actually is something "everyone" expected, since he couldn't have gotten much worse at that point). But pretty far from top 20.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Fiveohnine

[brockpapersizer 11,401]

18 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

If YOU felt the under was an easy bet that "everyone" would take, you had every opportunity to say it back then, instead of right now, in 20/20 hindsight. But we would have disagreed on the point back then as well. And you would STILL be wrong even in hindsight at this point, since it is actually close and not an easy bet either way.

.

 

I mean if there's ever a bet where I can take a rookie who has an OPS around 600 6-8 weeks in and take the under for the season at 830 or so, I'm going to take it. It was an obvious statement then. No line-maker would ever set it that high at that point in the season (maybe pre season sure).  And even with his incredible run since the all-star break, much to the chagrin of some posters who said he didn't have a major league swing, he's still under that OPS, making it even more obvious why that was a dumb betting line to begin with at that point. 

 

You saying "Come to think of it, redraft owners might want to shop him around before he starts facing real pitching again. I'm sure he impressed a lot of people in the HR derby." on 7/11 also didn't age too well. 

 

Don't really care either way. Just seems like multiple posters who were lauging at Vlad around the AS break and implying he was a joke are suddenly changing their narratives to random things. 

Edited August 29, 2019 by brockpapersizer

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

This also didn't age too well. 

 

I'm not sure why you're so desperate to be right here when you're not. It has aged just fine. You like wRC+. Guys you could have gotten since back then who have beaten Vlad Jr. in wRC+:

Josh Donaldson, Kolten Wong, and many others (it became too long for me to bother listing). EASILY more than half of the guys who are beating Vlad Jr. in wRC+ since then are guys whose value was comparable or lower. And that's just the guys who are BEATING him. If you take all the guys who have a similar wRC+ the list is much longer. NELSON CRUZ (a guy we discussed in the Yordan/DH-only thread) is actually #1 in wRC+ since that time.

 

Edited August 29, 2019 by Fiveohnine

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

21 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I mean if there's ever a bet where I can take a rookie who has an OPS around 600 6-8 weeks in and take the under for the season at 830 or so, I'm going to take it. It was an obvious statement then. No line-maker would ever set it that high at that point in the season (maybe pre season sure)...

Don't really care either way. Just seems like multiple posters who were lauging at Vlad around the AS break and implying he was a joke are suddenly changing their narratives to random things. 

 

I'm not sure you realize it. But at this point in the season at least, what you're saying above is that YOU were wrong back in May that the under was an easy bet that "everyone" should take and I was right that it would be close.

I mean, I'm still not sure why you're so desperate here that your logic is tripping all over itself. But it is.

[brockpapersizer 11,401]

46 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

I'm not sure why you're so desperate to be right here when you're not. It has aged just fine. You like wRC+. Guys you could have gotten since back then who have beaten Vlad Jr. in wRC+:

Josh Donaldson, Kolten Wong, and many others (it became too long for me to bother listing). EASILY more than half of the guys who are beating Vlad Jr. in wRC+ since then are guys whose value was comparable or lower. And that's just the guys who are BEATING him. If you take all the guys who have a similar wRC+ the list is much longer. NELSON CRUZ (a guy we discussed in the Yordan/DH-only thread) is actually #1 in wRC+ since that time.

 

 

Any person who bets regularly knows that good bets are lost all the time, that doesn't mean there was an error in taking it. The logic is sound. Nobody would offer an o/u  at 833 for Vlad at that point in the season when his results were poor for 6-8 weeks. A fair line would have been somewhere in the 700s and he would have crushed that, and that wouldn't have been an easy bet to make.  If Vlad ends up going over (which he might, because it's close, but he currently isn't), then I'm the one sitting here admitting to being wrong on a fictitious bet AFTER the fact, because I have no problem being wrong. Vlad's had to been amazing just to come close to this, and still might lose it. That's what makes it such a nonsensical hypothetical to me. 

 

If I were to bet YES/NO at even odds on the Raptors winning the championship at the beginning of the NBA season last year, that also seems like an easy bet to which I would have been wrong on.  Nobody was offering such a dumb bet (at the time).

Vlad's has to OPS a ridiculous amount just to make it close, and you're the one trying to caveat your way out of saying " redraft owners might want to shop him around before he starts facing real pitching again. I'm sure he impressed a lot of people in the HR derby."   Vlad has been pretty damn good since the ASB, I would think most people who gave up on Vlad around that point didn't get a better player, they probably got a worse player. Some certainly got a better player, most did not. 

 

I've been very consistent all season long with my Vlad analysis. I think he's a great dynasty asset and going to be a good hitter, but I wouldn't touch him at his ADP.  Maybe he finishes so hot that he outproduces his ADP, I still feel fine about passing on a rookie that early in redraft. 

Edited August 29, 2019 by brockpapersizer

[Fiveohnine 1,496]

^this discussion wouldn't have been completely worthless if you had chimed in with this opinion back in May when I suggested the over/under in the first place. Back then, you might have even convinced me to change my mind.

But now, it's just 20/20 hindsight noise that also happens to be incorrect based on the vast amount of information we have now that we didn't have back in May.

At this point, we're merely discussing why YOU would have set an O/U that would have been way too low and probably would have ended up with you on the hook for a big payout as a Vegas oddsmaker, while my O/U would have been much more accurate, again based on what we know now that we didn't know back in May.

 

In re: trading Vlad after the HR derby

The list of guys who had similar or lower value than Vlad Jr at the ASB but have a better or comparable wRC+ is a VERY LONG list of players. It's your opinion that someone who traded Vlad Jr. after the HR derby would have done worse. I disagree. But yeah, maybe someone got Judge, Soto, or Acuna for Vlad Jr. back then and ended up losing out. Of course, even that wouldn't make your point, since those guys were probably valued higher. I mean we're both just guessing what "would have" happened anyway, which also doesn't have much value, considering all the different possible trades/combinations involved. But the idea that it would have necessarily turned out to be a huge blunder seems patently false.

Edited August 29, 2019 by tonycpsu
Removed CSB. Nobody cares about your gambling.