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Kyler Murray 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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18 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Murray was INSANELY accurate in college and made incredible throws. Dudes pulling information out of his a**. 

He looked real accurate vs the Raiders last week lol. Go ahead and hold onto those college stats, when he starts looking like the worst QB in the league you can always refer to them and say he's just a rookie.

I bet the Defensive Coordinator for whoever the Cards play week 1 is absolutely salivating with all the looks he'll give Murray. They're guaranteed to confuse him.

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1 minute ago, raidaz18 said:

He looked real accurate vs the Raiders last week lol. Go ahead and hold onto those college stats, when he starts looking like the worst QB in the league you can always refer to them and say he's just a rookie.

I bet the Defensive Coordinator for whoever the Cards play week 1 is absolutely salivating with all the looks he'll give Murray. They're guaranteed to confuse him.

 

Sure, he could struggle translating to the nfl but I don’t think his accuracy would be the reason why. Slamming his accuracy is a terrible argument.

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5 minutes ago, jsch08 said:

 

Sure, he could struggle translating to the nfl but I don’t think his accuracy would be the reason why. Slamming his accuracy is a terrible argument.

In all fairness it’s pretty easy to be accurate in an air raid offense. Luke Falk running pretty much the same offense had pretty much the same accuracy. What scares me is the lack of road games he had in college and the fact that his accuracy was meh against Alabama, the closest thing to an NFL defense he has seen so far. 

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14 minutes ago, FooserX said:

I have the #5 pick in my draft, and for this reason, I just cannot bring myself to draft David Johnson. I saw what it did to people last year. 

He is not looking good so far. Was hoping to see something better. 

 

It's preseason guys.  The only takeaway you can really make is that the Cards were not prepared to be blitzed like crazy by the 1st team defense in a preseason game.  Murray said as much at the end of last night's Hard Knocks.  In a way, it was almost unsportsmanlike of the Raiders to go after him like that in a preseason game.  Maybe he gets hurt.  He clearly wasn't expecting it.  Having said that, they should have been prepared and Murray should have handled it better.  He does have some learning to do.

I've posed this in other threads - what if the last Superbowl was actually a preseason game?  Would we all put the Rams and Pats offenses on our DND lists?  They both looked horrible for an entire game with all their starters. 

We are talking a handful of series that we've seen of Murray.  And Murray looked ok in the first game.  Relax people.  It's preseason.

Edited by Brownsfan74
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I guess my train of thought is that NO rookie steps in and does well. 

Even the best rookie QB's still struggle for a while. And when they don't have "it"...it's painful. 

So for someone thinking of drafting DJ, and looking at the same output as last year...no thanks, I'll take Adams or Hopkins at #5, and get me 2 quality RB's at picks 2 and 3. 

 

Hopefully we can get one more glimpse of him in the next preseason game.

 

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35 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

In all fairness it’s pretty easy to be accurate in an air raid offense. Luke Falk running pretty much the same offense had pretty much the same accuracy. What scares me is the lack of road games he had in college and the fact that his accuracy was meh against Alabama, the closest thing to an NFL defense he has seen so far. 

 

He was pretty accurate against Alabama. His receivers dropped a lot of passes that game.

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1 hour ago, Mahomet said:

What's his ADP these days? QB8-9? That's ~ 20 ppg based on https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php

Let's give him 230 passing, 1 td, 55 yards rushing, and a rushing td every 4 games (0.25/g). That's...... 9+4+5.5+1.5 = 20 ppg. 

Rushing QBs are the Konami code. Does that per game projection seem generous or conservative to you? I'd say he's priced about right and has significant upside. Your mileage may vary. 

55 yards rushing per game? That would be 880 rushing yards. I'm not saying that is impossible...but it would put Murray in extremely rare company. Here's the list of quarterbacks who have rushed for 800+ yards in a season (RGIII is the one rookie on the list):

  Games Rushing
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G
1 Michael Vick 2006 26 1-1 ATL NFL 16 16 123 1039 8.45 2 64.9
2 Bobby Douglass 1972 25 2-41 CHI NFL 14 14 141 968 6.87 8 69.1
3 Randall Cunningham 1990 27 2-37 PHI NFL 16 16 118 942 7.98 5 58.9
4 Michael Vick 2004 24 1-1 ATL NFL 15 15 120 902 7.52 3 60.1
5 Russell Wilson 2014 26 3-75 SEA NFL 16 16 118 849 7.19 6 53.1
6 Robert Griffin 2012 22 1-2 WAS NFL 15 15 120 815 6.79 7 54.3
Edited by Corleone
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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

He was pretty accurate against Alabama. His receivers dropped a lot of passes that game.

The hilarious thing is he still put up over 400 yards from scrimmage and had 3 TDs against a defense that was in large part absolutely dominant. As you mention, his WRs really came up short and he could have possibly hit over 500 total yards against the elite Alabama defense.

But uh... He'S a MiGiT and uhhhh hE cAnT SeE

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I have a feeling some of these posters are just pulling people's legs.  Sam Bradford 2.0?  Lol.  Yeah, Sam was a huge running threat with his 4.3 jets.

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Too high of a price for the struggles and Kingsbury

Edited by CABLE87

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9 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

I have a feeling some of these posters are just pulling people's legs.  Sam Bradford 2.0?  Lol.  Yeah, Sam was a huge running threat with his 4.3 jets.

 

Being thrown behind a horrible line and overrated to begin with

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[A bunch of off topic and combative nonsense removed.  Stay focused on Murray without beefing with other users or warnings / suspensions will be issued and/or the thread will be locked.]

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In normal 1QB re-draft leagues I don’t really think Kyler is worth expending too much brain energy on right now.

In 12-team half-PPR his ADP is 10.01. Look around him at that spot and most everyone is a dart throw. The other comparable QBs in that range are Winston and Lamar. Again, dart throws IMO. If you draft Murray, I think you also want to draft someone like Prescott to roll out the first 1-2 weeks. See how Murray looks, and make a decision then whether to drop Murray or Prescott. I view Winston and Lamar the same way. So it’s really more a question draft strategy and whether you want to use two roster spots on QBs the first couple weeks.

People are acting like you have to decide whether to spend a 3rd round pick on Murray to get the chance at the next Mahomes-like season, or on the other hand not let him sniff your roster lest he bomb it into oblivion. Either end of the spectrum is unlikely, and the draft capital required to get him in 1QB leagues is pretty immaterial. So the whole discussion is pretty pointless IMO for 1QB re-draft leagues.

In 2QB leagues I’m probably staying away. I think he could return value as the ~12 QB off the board. But I think a poor season is more likely than an elite season, so he’s not worth the risk to me at the 5.01 pick (current ADP in 12 team 2QB re-draft leagues). 

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Let's be real here: rookie rushing qb behind a terrible offensive line he's gonna have a minimum of 40 yards/game just from scrambles, aka Josh Allen.

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33 minutes ago, Mahomet said:

Let's be real here: rookie rushing qb behind a terrible offensive line he's gonna have a minimum of 40 yards/game just from scrambles, aka Josh Allen.

 

Wow 4 whole points

 

Still doesn't justify his inflated ADP. I'll gladly snag Allen many rounds later instead since he's actually done it before

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Some of my leagues have bonus points for rushing yards/TDs from QBs.  With all the "great" QBs available super late (cousins, brady, etc) I think he's a decent dart throw.  He's going to win a league or be awful.

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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

 

Being thrown behind a horrible line and overrated to begin with

 

Bradford was a statue so a horrible line affected him way more.  Overrated is subjective so I won't argue with you there.

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5 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Bradford was a statue so a horrible line affected him way more.  Overrated is subjective so I won't argue with you there.

 

A statue after his injury. Before his injury he was only good when he rolled out of the pocket same as Murray is gonna be. He's gonna be running for his life and turning the ball over left n right imo

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

He was pretty accurate against Alabama. His receivers dropped a lot of passes that game.

 

I agree. His long TD pass to Rambo in that game was insane. The accuracy is definitely there.

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5 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

He was pretty accurate against Alabama. His receivers dropped a lot of passes that game.

Wasn't that accurate.  19/37 with 6 passes deflected is a pretty good indication of inaccuracy overall.  For reference, the entire Oklahoma defense had one pass deflection..  

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Just now, daynlokki said:

Wasn't that accurate.  19/37 with 6 passes deflected is a pretty good indication of inaccuracy overall.  For reference, the entire Oklahoma defense had one pass deflection..  

 

Watch the game, don't just read the stat line.

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He just passes the eye test in my opinion. People compare Murray to Wilson just on size but that's not the more important comparison to me.  I think the fact that they were both professional level baseball players is the comp to keep in mind. Patrick Mahomes also was a baseball player who easily could have played professionally, his father was MLB player I believe. Baker Mayfield is another baseball player turned football player. 

Anyway, these baseball/football player types are much more capable of throwing from a bunch of different, unorthodox & uncoachable arm angles to get the ball where it needs to go to make plays & it really negates the mystical height disadvantage so many are fixated on. The quick decision making that's honed by seeing 80-90mph fastballs or having to react to make a play at 2B or SS tranlates well to having the relatively long 5-6 second football play seem slow to them. The game rarely gets too fast for them.Watching Murray at OU, most of the time he seemed like he was playing a video game out there. I'm not worried at all about accuracy, he's plenty accurate. He can make every throw.

The one big concern of mine is he may have been spoiled at OU since they often simply out-talented a lot of their opponents & it's not going to be that way in the NFL...Arizona's O-line ranked 7th from the bottom in sacks allowed but then, they had statues like Rosen & Bradford standing still for 5 seconds the whole time. Have they upgraded there? Will Murray's mobility help? WhoTF knows? Only way to know is to wait & see.

I'm skeptical of the Kingsbury offense working in the NFL too but at the very least, it should be fun to watch unfold. Besides, I didn't draft Murray to start this year but I do believe he will be a solid pro eventually & may just catch lightning in a bottle.

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1 hour ago, wayzupusc said:

He just passes the eye test in my opinion. People compare Murray to Wilson just on size but that's not the more important comparison to me.  I think the fact that they were both professional level baseball players is the comp to keep in mind. Patrick Mahomes also was a baseball player who easily could have played professionally, his father was MLB player I believe. Baker Mayfield is another baseball player turned football player. 

Anyway, these baseball/football player types are much more capable of throwing from a bunch of different, unorthodox & uncoachable arm angles to get the ball where it needs to go to make plays & it really negates the mystical height disadvantage so many are fixated on. The quick decision making that's honed by seeing 80-90mph fastballs or having to react to make a play at 2B or SS tranlates well to having the relatively long 5-6 second football play seem slow to them. The game rarely gets too fast for them.Watching Murray at OU, most of the time he seemed like he was playing a video game out there. I'm not worried at all about accuracy, he's plenty accurate. He can make every throw.

The one big concern of mine is he may have been spoiled at OU since they often simply out-talented a lot of their opponents & it's not going to be that way in the NFL...Arizona's O-line ranked 7th from the bottom in sacks allowed but then, they had statues like Rosen & Bradford standing still for 5 seconds the whole time. Have they upgraded there? Will Murray's mobility help? WhoTF knows? Only way to know is to wait & see.

I'm skeptical of the Kingsbury offense working in the NFL too but at the very least, it should be fun to watch unfold. Besides, I didn't draft Murray to start this year but I do believe he will be a solid pro eventually & may just catch lightning in a bottle.

Drew Henson was a professional baseball player too. 

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