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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Ok, shame if you can't see it. Jacobs is a good rusher, has good receiving skills, is already a good pass blocker and got drafted to a team that plans to use him a whole lot in the 1st round.

 

Plenty of similarities in reference to these guys fantasy situations.

 

What do you think is so different? The size of Quons Quads?

 

One is a generational RB and the other couldn't beat out Damien Harris to be his teams starting RB.  Quit while you're behind. 

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Nope.   I'm in that period of hating everyone I drafted.

From Adam Caplan   #Raiders HC Jon Gruden on RB Josh Jacobs after practice today when asked how he looked this week: "Pretty good. He got work all three days. I think that's a good sign.

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3 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Every year we see these comments. How did that work for those who passed on Barkley last year because he wasn't "proven"? Because thats all we had all off season about him. 

 

Talented Rookie running backs drafted into situations with plenty of opportunity have shown to make big impacts in fantasy. 

Barkley, Chubb, Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel..... Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott had monster rookie years as well. The whole "proven" or safe pick is a thing of the past. 

 

 

Jacobs isn't in the same stratosphere with Saquon.  Stop.

 

Rookies can ball out, but they have to be actually really good to do so.  Jacobs is not.  Montgomery and Sanders are much better bets both this year and in the future. 

 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

One is a generational RB and the other couldn't beat out Damien Harris to be his teams starting RB.  Quit while you're behind. 

 

Lol, 1 guy went to a football factory where you compete everyday and 1 guy went to where he could be a full time starter.

 

Like Jacobs wouldnt have started for Penn State. Lol

 

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Lol, 1 guy went to a football factory where you compete everyday and 1 guy went to where he could be a full time starter.

 

Like Jacobs wouldnt have started for Penn State. Lol

 

 

He wouldn't have.  He's not better than Sanders let alone Saquon. 

 

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

 

Jacobs isn't in the same stratosphere with Saquon.  Stop.

 

Rookies can ball out, but they have to be actually really good to do so.  Jacobs is not.  Montgomery and Sanders are much better bets both this year and in the future. 

 

Agreed on nixing the Saquon comparison, he's a freak and the blends his otherworldly athleticism with strong work ethic and technique, but that's about where this ends.

How can you say Jacobs is not good? He was the number 1 RB in the draft on almost all boards. He steps in with by far the highest floor of all of these guys due to his projected workload, in an offense that is probably being underrated by a lot of people. I like Montgomery a lot too and they are almost a tossup at this point, but man, did Jacobs poo in your cheerios or something?

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1 minute ago, Olliemets said:

Agreed on nixing the Saquon comparison, he's a freak and the blends his otherworldly athleticism with strong work ethic and technique, but that's about where this ends.

How can you say Jacobs is not good? He was the number 1 RB in the draft on almost all boards. He steps in with by far the highest floor of all of these guys due to his projected workload, in an offense that is probably being underrated by a lot of people. I like Montgomery a lot too and they are almost a tossup at this point, but man, did Jacobs poo in your cheerios or something?

 

I said Jacobs was similar to CMC and Barkley in that they were drafted 1st round, have similar skill sets, rushing, receiving, pass blocking and got dropped into a heavy useage situation. 

 

He is good. Best back in the draft and every NFL GM agrees.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Agreed on nixing the Saquon comparison, he's a freak and the blends his otherworldly athleticism with strong work ethic and technique, but that's about where this ends.

How can you say Jacobs is not good? He was the number 1 RB in the draft on almost all boards. He steps in with by far the highest floor of all of these guys due to his projected workload, in an offense that is probably being underrated by a lot of people. I like Montgomery a lot too and they are almost a tossup at this point, but man, did Jacobs poo in your cheerios or something?

 

I've been consistent on this and other threads about Jacobs.  Unlike Montgomery (and even Sanders), he wasn't productive in college and was never trusted to be given the full workload.  His stats (in his relatively limited playing time) are inflated because he came in against less stacked defenses than Harris; that's actually a fact you can find on PFF.  He's not even a great athlete (same 40 time as Montgomery yet Montgomery is treated as a bad athlete and Jacobs treated as a great one), yet he's being treated as this physical freak.  Hard pass.  And the OAK offense isn't underrated at all; they have an average/below average OL, a QB who can't handle pocket pressure at all, and a HC with a history of trusting veterans over rookies and who signed Doug Martin back when he could have simply made it clear that Jacobs was his guy by keeping Martin on the street once Crowell was done for the year. Plus Jalen Richard is still there (#2 in the NFL in RB catches last year).  

 

I'm glad the dynasty community has Jacobs at the 1.01....it was great to get Montgomery and Sanders with the 1.03 and 1.04.  I'm not afraid to be contrarian (see 2 years ago where I was the only one on these forums saying McCaffrey and Hunt were better than Fournette).  If Jacobs proves me wrong, so be it, but I'm not counting on it. 

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7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I said Jacobs was similar to CMC and Barkley in that they were drafted 1st round, have similar skill sets, rushing, receiving, pass blocking and got dropped into a heavy useage situation. 

 

He is good. Best back in the draft and every NFL GM agrees.

 

No, all we know is that OAK was the only team dumb enough to draft him in the 1st round.  

 

Most of the RB studs over the past few years were actually drafted in the 3rd round (DJ, Hunt, Kamara, Conner), not late 1st.  RB studs in the 1st rd are usually taken with a top-10 pick (Zeke, CMAC, Saquon).

 

 

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37 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

 

Jacobs isn't in the same stratosphere with Saquon.  Stop.

 

Rookies can ball out, but they have to be actually really good to do so.  Jacobs is not.  Montgomery and Sanders are much better bets both this year and in the future. 

 

 

Of course he’s not. Saquon is the most talented and skill RB in the NFL. Was just using examples of the whole “proven” argument. 

 

With that being said I still think Jacobs is a stud and has a lot of talent. He can be a solid running back in the NFL.

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3 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

According to FantasyPros little blurb on Jacobs, over the past 6 years, 1st round rookie RB's have averaged over 283 touches in their rookie year.  That's a pretty impressive number!  That's not just pointing to a couple that had big years, that's averaging them all.  

 

These numbers are conveniently skewed and unrealistic.  Why 6 years? There is not even any 1st rounders in 2 of those years included.  Why not 10?  Because the numbers would be far lower.  Heck, even look at last year, 2 out of 3 1st round RB didn't reach that touch average. 283 touch expectation is an absurd expectation. FIVE RB last year got above that total.  Not rookies, out of ALL NFL RB.  Elliot, Barkley, CMC, Gurley, and D. Johnson.

 

2018 - Barkley 261 carries, 91 receptions, 352 touches

2018 - Penny 85 carries, 9 receptions, 94 touches

2018 - Michel 209 carries, 7 receptions, 216 touches

2017 - CMC  117 carries, 80 receptions, 197 touches

2017 - Fournette 268 carries, 36 receptions, 304 touches

2016 - Elliott  322 carries, 32 receptions, 354 touches

2015 - Gordon 184 carries, 33 receptions, 217 touches

2015 - Gurley 229 carries, 21 receptions, 250 touches

2014 - No 1st round RB

2013 - No 1st round RB

 

While we are at it, someone double check my numbers, because I am getting an average of 248 touches, NOT 283 within the past 6 years.  Figured going back a decade would be more useful.

 

2012 - Richardson 267 carries, 51 receptions, 318 touches

2012 - Martin 319 carries, 49 receptions, 368 touches

2012 - Wilson 71 carries, 4 receptions, 75 touches

2011 - Ingram 122 carries, 11 receptions, 133 touches

2010 - Best 171 carries, 58 receptions, 229 touches

2010 - Spiller 74 carries, 24 receptions, 98 touches

2010 - Matthews 158 carries, 22 receptions, 180 touches

2009 - Moreno 247 carries, 28 receptions, 275 touches

2009 - Wells 176 carries, 12 receptions,188 touches

2009 - D. Brown 78 carries, 11 receptions, 89 touches

2008 - C. Johnson 251 carries, 43 receptions, 294 touches

2008 - McFadden 113 carries, 29 receptions, 142 touches

2008 - Stewart 184 carries, 8 receptions, 192 touches

2008 - F. Jones 30 carries, 2 receptions, 32 touches

2008 - Mendenhall 19 carries, 2 receptions, 21 touches

 

With all of these combined, the numbers (if I did them right) come out to an average of 198.47 touches out of a total of 23 1st round picks for the last decade. 12 of 23 of the RB did not meet that average amount of touches their rookie year.

 

To assume Jacobs is going to get a workload just because he is a 1st rounder without looking into the surrounding circumstances of his situation is foolish.

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13 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

These numbers are conveniently skewed and unrealistic.  Why 6 years? There is not even any 1st rounders in 2 of those years included.  Why not 10?  Because the numbers would be far lower.  Heck, even look at last year, 2 out of 3 1st round RB didn't reach that touch average. 283 touch expectation is an absurd expectation. FIVE RB last year got above that total.  Not rookies, out of ALL NFL RB.  Elliot, Barkley, CMC, Gurley, and D. Johnson.

 

2018 - Barkley 261 carries, 91 receptions, 352 touches

2018 - Penny 85 carries, 9 receptions, 94 touches

2018 - Michel 209 carries, 7 receptions, 216 touches

2017 - CMC  117 carries, 80 receptions, 197 touches

2017 - Fournette 268 carries, 36 receptions, 304 touches

2016 - Elliott  322 carries, 32 receptions, 354 touches

2015 - Gordon 184 carries, 33 receptions, 217 touches

2015 - Gurley 229 carries, 21 receptions, 250 touches

2014 - No 1st round RB

2013 - No 1st round RB

 

While we are at it, someone double check my numbers, because I am getting an average of 248 touches, NOT 283 within the past 6 years.  Figured going back a decade would be more useful.

 

2012 - Richardson 267 carries, 51 receptions, 318 touches

2012 - Martin 319 carries, 49 receptions, 368 touches

2012 - Wilson 71 carries, 4 receptions, 75 touches

2011 - Ingram 122 carries, 11 receptions, 133 touches

2010 - Best 171 carries, 58 receptions, 229 touches

2010 - Spiller 74 carries, 24 receptions, 98 touches

2010 - Matthews 158 carries, 22 receptions, 180 touches

2009 - Moreno 247 carries, 28 receptions, 275 touches

2009 - Wells 176 carries, 12 receptions,188 touches

2009 - D. Brown 78 carries, 11 receptions, 89 touches

2008 - C. Johnson 251 carries, 43 receptions, 294 touches

2008 - McFadden 113 carries, 29 receptions, 142 touches

2008 - Stewart 184 carries, 8 receptions, 192 touches

2008 - F. Jones 30 carries, 2 receptions, 32 touches

2008 - Mendenhall 19 carries, 2 receptions, 21 touches

 

With all of these combined, the numbers (if I did them right) come out to an average of 198.47 touches out of a total of 23 1st round picks for the last decade. 12 of 23 of the RB did not meet that average amount of touches their rookie year.

 

To assume Jacobs is going to get a workload just because he is a 1st rounder without looking into the surrounding circumstances of his situation is foolish.

 

Exactly.  

 

Its the reason Rashad Penny was an easy avoid this time last year....but most wouldn't listen ("He's a first round RB!  Carson was undrafted!")

 

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

Ponza 2017:

Don't really understand how people can pick McCaffrey over more proven talents... Seems like a risky bet...

 

Someone change my mind.

 

Ponza 2018:

Don't really understand how people can pick Barkley over more proven talents... Seems like a risky bet...

 

Someone change my mind.

 

Ponza 2019:

Don't really understand how people can pick Jacobs over more proven talents... Seems like a risky bet...

 

Someone change my mind.

 

I've drafted both Barkley and McCaffrey... WTH are you talking about?

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2 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

 

I've drafted both Barkley and McCaffrey... WTH are you talking about?

 

Just playing with you.

 

Jacobs has 1st round talent + opportunity + a coach that likes a bell cow back.if you think Josh will stay healthy he is in for a big season rushing and receiving.

 

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5 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

 

Every year we see these comments. How did that work for those who passed on Barkley last year because he wasn't "proven"? Because thats all we had all off season about him. 

 

Talented Rookie running backs drafted into situations with plenty of opportunity have shown to make big impacts in fantasy. 

Barkley, Chubb, Lindsay, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel..... Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott had monster rookie years as well. The whole "proven" or safe pick is a thing of the past. 

 

Give me figures and hard stats and your personal reasons as to why you're drafting him... Not reasons why random people don't draft rookies.

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5 hours ago, Chardo said:

 

Because in fantasy, situation can be more valuable than experience.  A team desperate for defense uses their first round pick on a RB, the first RB off the board, and basically hands the backfield to him.  With the talent in that offense, situation can trump experience.

 

Gotchya... And while I obviously understand that, I want to know what makes Jacobs 'special', personally, in a lot of posters eyes here.

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1 minute ago, ponza88 said:

 

Gotchya... And while I obviously understand that, I want to know why Jacobs, personally, makes him special in a lot of posters eyes here.

 

Even though he wasn't the full time back in college he ran receiver routes, he is advanced at pass pro for a rookie, he runs hard, hits the right holes and he has fallen into a great situation. They are ready to give him as many touches as he can handle with a coach who prefers a workhorse RB. If your looking for volume from a RB Jacobs is gonna get it.

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2 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

These numbers are conveniently skewed and unrealistic.  Why 6 years? There is not even any 1st rounders in 2 of those years included.  Why not 10?  Because the numbers would be far lower.  Heck, even look at last year, 2 out of 3 1st round RB didn't reach that touch average. 283 touch expectation is an absurd expectation. FIVE RB last year got above that total.  Not rookies, out of ALL NFL RB.  Elliot, Barkley, CMC, Gurley, and D. Johnson.

 

2018 - Barkley 261 carries, 91 receptions, 352 touches

2018 - Penny 85 carries, 9 receptions, 94 touches

2018 - Michel 209 carries, 7 receptions, 216 touches

2017 - CMC  117 carries, 80 receptions, 197 touches

2017 - Fournette 268 carries, 36 receptions, 304 touches

2016 - Elliott  322 carries, 32 receptions, 354 touches

2015 - Gordon 184 carries, 33 receptions, 217 touches

2015 - Gurley 229 carries, 21 receptions, 250 touches

2014 - No 1st round RB

2013 - No 1st round RB

 

While we are at it, someone double check my numbers, because I am getting an average of 248 touches, NOT 283 within the past 6 years.  Figured going back a decade would be more useful.

 

2012 - Richardson 267 carries, 51 receptions, 318 touches

2012 - Martin 319 carries, 49 receptions, 368 touches

2012 - Wilson 71 carries, 4 receptions, 75 touches

2011 - Ingram 122 carries, 11 receptions, 133 touches

2010 - Best 171 carries, 58 receptions, 229 touches

2010 - Spiller 74 carries, 24 receptions, 98 touches

2010 - Matthews 158 carries, 22 receptions, 180 touches

2009 - Moreno 247 carries, 28 receptions, 275 touches

2009 - Wells 176 carries, 12 receptions,188 touches

2009 - D. Brown 78 carries, 11 receptions, 89 touches

2008 - C. Johnson 251 carries, 43 receptions, 294 touches

2008 - McFadden 113 carries, 29 receptions, 142 touches

2008 - Stewart 184 carries, 8 receptions, 192 touches

2008 - F. Jones 30 carries, 2 receptions, 32 touches

2008 - Mendenhall 19 carries, 2 receptions, 21 touches

 

With all of these combined, the numbers (if I did them right) come out to an average of 198.47 touches out of a total of 23 1st round picks for the last decade. 12 of 23 of the RB did not meet that average amount of touches their rookie year.

 

To assume Jacobs is going to get a workload just because he is a 1st rounder without looking into the surrounding circumstances of his situation is foolish.

 

Yeah I'll admit I have no idea where they got the number from, just relaying what the quote said. 6 years is probably purposely arbitrary, but it's also a fairly relevant time frame showing how rookies have fared recently. 

The numbers are also skewed a little by having a few generational talents drafted recently, like Barkley and Zeke. I don't think Jacobs is on their level at this point. 

I will say though, nobody has said he is guaranteed a workload because he's a 1st rounder. That's your own strawman. The only reason I passed on this info was because of the poster making it seem like drafting rookie RBs is risky in fantasy. If 1st round rookie RBs average 250+ touches over recent years, that doesn't guarantee Jacobs' workload, but it shows its not exactly risky, or betting on something that rarely happens. 

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Exactly.  

 

Its the reason Rashad Penny was an easy avoid this time last year....but most wouldn't listen ("He's a first round RB!  Carson was undrafted!")

 

 

Jacobs and Penny are very different situations. If you go back to 2018 threads I was one of Carson's biggest promoters, and I thought the Penny pumpers were nuts. 

Jacobs is coming into a completely different situation because he has virtually no competition. Lynch retired / didn't get resigned, they kept the same completely underwhelming backups as last year, and clearly spent the pick on Jacobs with the intention of using him as their RB1. Doug Martin is not a legitimate threat to take over this backfield. 

Penny OTOH last year, you had Carson coming off being effective as the starter, and all the signs in preseason pointed to him being the starter. But an group of people were saying just because he was a 1st rounder Penny would start. That's not the argument at all here with Jacobs. He has a clear opportunity that Penny did not. 

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Jacobs is the clear starter, so work load, raiders offense appears to be good so no threat of stacked boxes, he appears to be a threat to catch passes.  It’s not rocket science.  If you think he’s a garbage player then fine that’s your opinion, we all have one.  

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Exactly.  

 

Its the reason Rashad Penny was an easy avoid this time last year....but most wouldn't listen ("He's a first round RB!  Carson was undrafted!")

 

Who exactly is the threat to Jacobs' workload?

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9 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Jacobs is the clear starter, so work load, raiders offense appears to be good so no threat of stacked boxes, he appears to be a threat to catch passes.  It’s not rocket science.  If you think he’s a garbage player then fine that’s your opinion, we all have one.  

 

giphy.gif

 

He is the clear starter based on what? 4 carries?

The Raiders offense is good based on what? Two preseason games?

He appears to be a threat to catch passes? As is everyone with two hands.

 

The Raiders might want him to be a the starter, they might want to be a good offense, they might think he is a pass catching threat but that is a large leap from what we have seen.

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