DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Jacobs 2019 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

Who exactly is the threat to Jacobs' workload?

 

Gruden likes Washington for whatever reason so expect random 5 carries and then 1 carry out of nowhere.  Richard on 3rd down pass catching duties.  Martin GL mix maybe?

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Going to drop this here from the other thread

On 8/15/2019 at 10:31 AM, Sternes said:

 

Coach bias:

Gruden seems to favor veterans.  There are a lot of mouths to feed on that roster. It seems that Richard is entrenched as the 3rd down back. They brought back Martin and Gruden seems to love him.  Gruden also has a bizarre fetish for Washington.  Gruden is a terribly overrated offensive mind and I'm still not sure how he is gotten the title of a QB guru.  Gruden hasn't had a top 10 offense 2003.  He hasn't had a top 10 rushing attack since 2000. Gruden's rush offense rankings

 

Rush offense Attempts rank/Yardage rank/TD rank

1998 - 17th/16th/29th

1999 - 7th/3rd/4th

2000 - 3rd/1st/2nd

2001 -12th/24th/9th

2002 - 23rd/27th/31st

2003 -22nd/24th/30th

2004 -27th/29th/26th

2005 -15th/14th/14th

2006 - 28th/28th/31st

2007 - 11th/11th/7th

2008 - 11th/15th/19th

2018 - 23rd/25th/27th

 

Out of 12 seasons, he has finished in the top 10 twice.  He has been in the bottom 1/3 in 5 seasons. The other 5 seasons scattered between 11th and 17th. He also loves to pass the ball: In years of studying play callers' tendencies, we've never seen anyone lean on running backs as pass catchers as much as Gruden has. Practically a third of his quarterbacks' completions have gone to the position! For some context, 30.2 percent of the Panthers' receptions went to running backs this season, when Christian McCaffrey led the team in catches. And we're not talking about one or two years of massive outliers propping up that number – it's been real consistent. A rusher has caught at least 40 passes in eight of Gruden's 11 years.


Oakland also has a questionable offensive line that they have made changes to, but I'm not sure of what kind of results they will have.

 

Statistical bias:

Since 2000, there have been 40 rookie RB that have received over 200 carries their rookie year.  There have been 20 rookies who have gotten over 250 carries.   At a glance, all of those situations which allowed success were where the rookie was given the job from the start and not have to work his way up to the starter.  He would have to be remarkable efficient on a low volume of carries.  Fantasy points of the top rushers last season went from #1 Gurley 313.1 to #10 David Johnson 196.6.  There are only 19 rookie seasons since 2000 that would fit between those two numbers.  Two of those stand out as anomalies.  Kamara in 2017, (120 carries) due to the 8 rushing TDs to go with his ridiculous catching yardage and 5 receiving TD, and MJD in 2006, who had 166 carries, but averaged 5.67 YPC, while rushing for 13 (!!!!) TD.  He all had 426 receiving yards and 2 TD. The chances of him being a fantasy contributor are low in the crowded backfield and him being a rookie. With his ADP hovering in the 4-5 round range, HARD PASS on that.

 

Personal Bias

He is a rookie RB which will work against him in a crowded backfield. He also didn't have to pass protect much at Alabama which will limit his 3 down chances.  Alabama is a very successful program, but I find it harder to judge their player talent because they are better than their opponents at nearly every position.  Is that RB as good as he appears, or is that those 5 star recruits on the line that make him look good? With the rotation at RB they do, everyone is fresh and no one has to be leaned on.  He can be a workhorse but he never has had to be. He had 251 carries for his entire college career. He looks like a decent runner, I admittedly have seen very little film on him.  I watched a handful of Alabama games and often couldn't tell which back was in and lost track of who did what play.  That isn't me complaining, that is my crappy eyes not keeping up! Nothing screams to me elite talent from his measureables and he seems more of a mystery as to what kind of back he and what his actual potential is.  Even if is Barkley, he won't have the opportunity to be Barkley until half this season is gone or more likely, next year.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Gruden likes Washington for whatever reason so expect random 5 carries and then 1 carry out of nowhere.  Richard on 3rd down pass catching duties.  Martin GL mix maybe?

 

Washington as in the guy that Gruden gave a whole 31 touches to last year? This is the guy he loves and will take meaningful snaps away from Jacob? 

Richard will be mixed in as a COP back, but that's about it. Even when injuries piled up in the past he couldn't get significant amount of touches. 

There isn't a RB in the NFL that's going to play every snap every game. The group of JAGs behind Jacobs are as blah as you can get. 

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From www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com

As of today, Josh Jacobs is RB20 (12 team, half-ppr)

Others around him:
Gurley (1.12), Chubb (2.1), Mixon (2.5), Cook (2.5), K. Johnson (2.10), D. Williams (2.12), Fournette (3.3), Gordon (3.3), D. Freeman (3.5), A. Jones (3.5), Mack (3.8), D. Montgomery (3.9), Jacobs (3.11), Carson (4.1), Henry (4.5), Ingram (4.7), Michel (4.10), Lindsay (4.12), Coleman (5.4), White (5.7), L. Miller (5.12), Sanders (6.1), Cohen (6.4)

Let's look at the 3rd-4th round range: Fournette, Gordon, Freeman, Jones, Mack, Montgomery, Jacobs, Carson, Henry, Ingram, Michel, Lindsay

I don't like Fournette's durability and his situation isn't great.  Gordon is probably being artificially depressed by the holdout, but if he returns before the season opener I'd definitely grab him.  Freeman could have a good year, he could get hurt again, he could be limited by a not-improved-enough line, but the team should at least score a lot of points; I'm not sure how I feel about him yet.  Aaron Jones is a solid pick and should have a strong year.  Mack is a very good runner behind a great offensive line, but doesn't catch the ball that often and can disappear at times because of that, but can also put up big numbers.  Montgomery is, like Jacobs, a rookie - unlike Jacobs, he's going to share a lot of work with Cohen and fills a role that Nagy tended to forget about until the end of the season last year.  Maybe Howard was just that bad, but he'd produced for a couple years prior to Nagy's arrival.  I'm big on Carson this year, and would almost certainly take him above Jacobs.  I can't see taking anybody after that, except maaaaaaybe Ingram, ahead of Jacobs.

Hmm.  I think I had a point when I started writing this.  But now I'm not so sure...

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53 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Jacobs and Penny are very different situations. If you go back to 2018 threads I was one of Carson's biggest promoters, and I thought the Penny pumpers were nuts. 

Jacobs is coming into a completely different situation because he has virtually no competition. Lynch retired / didn't get resigned, they kept the same completely underwhelming backups as last year, and clearly spent the pick on Jacobs with the intention of using him as their RB1. Doug Martin is not a legitimate threat to take over this backfield. 

Penny OTOH last year, you had Carson coming off being effective as the starter, and all the signs in preseason pointed to him being the starter. But an group of people were saying just because he was a 1st rounder Penny would start. That's not the argument at all here with Jacobs. He has a clear opportunity that Penny did not. 

 

Not to mention, wasn't Penny hurt last pre-season? 

It really is a totally different situation.

FWIW, I like JJ, but I LOVE me David Montgomery. 

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5 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Ok, shame if you can't see it. Jacobs is a good rusher, has good receiving skills, is already a good pass blocker and got drafted to a team that plans to use him a whole lot in the 1st round.

 

 

Those adjectives do not describe CMC or Barkley.  Jacobs is not near their level.  To compare Jacobs to either of them seems pretty silly, quite honestly.

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28 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Going to drop this here from the other thread

 

Not entirely on topic, but relevant:

You still down on Kerryon?

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13 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Washington?  The heck is this guy talking about lol.  Those guys have been there for years and done nothing

 

Agreed. And, goes to no competition behind him. Volume should be there. He doesn't have to be Saquon. Just competent. Solid RB1 floor IMO. 

Edited by The G Man

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What is the common denominator here?

 

2016
2.14 Derrick Henry. TEN
 
 
2015
2.04 TJ Yeldon JAX
 
 
2013
2.29 Eddie Lacy GB
 
 
2012
1.03 Trent Richardson CLE
 
 

2011

1.28 Mark Ingram NO

 

’Bama RBs in the past decade overdrafted and underperformed.  Every time.

 
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21 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

What is the common denominator here?

 

2016
2.14 Derrick Henry. TEN
 
 
2015
2.04 TJ Yeldon JAX
 
 
2013
2.29 Eddie Lacy GB
 
 
2012
1.03 Trent Richardson CLE
 
 

2011

1.28 Mark Ingram NO

 

’Bama RBs in the past decade overdrafted and underperformed.  Every time.

 

Historically under Saban that tends to be true. A lot of his players are overdrafted and under perform though. TRich still had a productive rookie season on volume alone.

Ingram has been a very good player and reliable fantasy asset. Drake has been decent. Not all busts. Jacobs is fresh and wasn't overused in college.

Ultimately what is key is that Jacobs was a 1st round pick and has absolutely zero competition for touches in that backfield. In what looks to be an improved offense. He doesn't have a RB1 as another poster mentioned, because he doesn't have the talent of Zeke or Barkley imo, but he does have RB2 floor based on opportunity. He has RB1 upside as well if he exceeds expectations.

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11 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Washington as in the guy that Gruden gave a whole 31 touches to last year? This is the guy he loves and will take meaningful snaps away from Jacob? 

Richard will be mixed in as a COP back, but that's about it. Even when injuries piled up in the past he couldn't get significant amount of touches. 

There isn't a RB in the NFL that's going to play every snap every game. The group of JAGs behind Jacobs are as blah as you can get. 

 

Washington didn't play until week 8 coming off a knee scope.  I didn't say he was going to be a bell cow, I said that Gruden has a weird infatuation with him. 

Week 8 - 1 carry

Week 9 - 5 carries

Week 10 - 0 (not sure if no touches or didn't play)

Week 11 - 12 carries

Week 12 - 3 carries

Week 13 - 3 carries

Week 14 - 0 (not sure if no touches or didn't play)

Week 15 - 1 carry

Week 16 - 1 carry

Week 17 - 4 carry

 

He was giving him carries even though he was putting up nearly a yard less than Richard a carry. Speaking of Richard, he had 81 targets and 68 receptions last year to go with 55 carries.

 

11 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Gruden likes Washington for whatever reason so expect random 5 carries and then 1 carry out of nowhere.  Richard on 3rd down pass catching duties.  Martin GL mix maybe?

 

 

What did I write that was inaccurate?

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11 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Not entirely on topic, but relevant:

You still down on Kerryon?

 

Go look at that thread.

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55 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Washington didn't play until week 8 coming off a knee scope.  I didn't say he was going to be a bell cow, I said that Gruden has a weird infatuation with him. 

Week 8 - 1 carry

Week 9 - 5 carries

Week 10 - 0 (not sure if no touches or didn't play)

Week 11 - 12 carries

Week 12 - 3 carries

Week 13 - 3 carries

Week 14 - 0 (not sure if no touches or didn't play)

Week 15 - 1 carry

Week 16 - 1 carry

Week 17 - 4 carry

 

He was giving him carries even though he was putting up nearly a yard less than Richard a carry. Speaking of Richard, he had 81 targets and 68 receptions last year to go with 55 carries.

 

Even if you only count him playing from Week 8 and on, Washington averaged a whole 3 carries a game. I'm not sure why you would call that an infatuation, or imply that few touches would have an implication on Jacobs. He's clearly just a warm body that comes on the field when the starters get gassed. The one game he had 12 carries was one where they ran the ball 33 times, well over their season average of about 24. 

If you take Washington's 3 carries a game, and Richard's 3.5 carries a game, you still have 17-18 carries a game left over. And that's also assuming the Raiders' offense is still just as bad, and remains near the bottom of the league in rush attempts. 

Only 14 RBs in the whole league topped 200 carries last year, and Jacobs would only need 13 a game to top the 200 mark. I don't see how the math can't add up to at least 13 a game for Jacobs.

And that's not even including any work in the passing game, which is a skillset he was clearly targeted for as well. Richard will certainly have his targets and COP work, but the whole point of burning a high pick on Jacobs was to have a complete package RB where they're not telegraphing run or pass plays. Add even a modest reception total onto 200+ carries and you have a very good fantasy RB. 

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Is the biggest concern with Jacobs the fact he is on the Oakland Raiders?  If this guy was on any other team, would be be concerned?  I don't see a very productive year from this team and I am highly speculative that Gruden actually knows what he is doing these days. 

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11 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

What is the common denominator here?

 

2016
2.14 Derrick Henry. TEN
 
 
2015
2.04 TJ Yeldon JAX
 
 
2013
2.29 Eddie Lacy GB
 
 
2012
1.03 Trent Richardson CLE
 
 

2011

1.28 Mark Ingram NO

 

’Bama RBs in the past decade overdrafted and underperformed.  Every time.

 

 

FSM7yR.gif

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They didn't take him in the first round to give carries to DWash and Richard. The team may suck but he's gonna get 300 touches. That alone makes him attractive at his current ADP. 

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20 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

2012
1.03 Trent Richardson CLE
 

 

Um.......

 

image.thumb.png.f0ba4925ebe6c9e4883e223ca03977bb.png

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3 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

They didn't take him in the first round to give carries to DWash and Richard. The team may suck but he's gonna get 300 touches. That alone makes him attractive at his current ADP. 

 

Is there any reason for them to limit his touches? I just assume all teams would give these young RBs a ton of action during their rookies deals.

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49 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Is there any reason for them to limit his touches? I just assume all teams would give these young RBs a ton of action during their rookies deals.

 

Usually rookie RBs get less work when they can't pass block well.

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Are you seriously trying to sell pick 1.03 Trent Richardson as a ‘Bama RB success story?

 

He had a first round caliber rookie year. We are talking about Bama rookie backs. It's information that directly showed his post was inaccurate. Sorry for helping ;)

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

 

He had a first round caliber rookie year. We are talking about Bama rookie backs. It's information that directly showed his post was inaccurate. Sorry for helping ;)

 

:lol:

 

I’ll let Richardson’s career speak for itself and let everyone else here decide for themselves whether Richardson outperformed or underperformed his 1.03 draft pick - including his rookie year when he posted that whopping 3.6 ypa.

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1 minute ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

:lol:

 

I’ll let Richardson’s career speak for itself and let everyone else here decide for themselves whether Richardson outperformed or underperformed his 1.03 draft pick - including his rookie year when he posted that whopping 3.6 ypa.

 

Yeah, I'll make sure to go back in time and not draft him in my YPC league....thanks....

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Hmmm, 190+ standard points. I’ll certainly take that. We are talking how useful these guys are for fantasy. Not how their NFL career panned out.

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