DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Jacobs 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, roughnecker101 said:

Anyone feeling confident for week one?

 

Nope.   I'm in that period of hating everyone I drafted.

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a dynasty owner this brown news has me assuming he is all but gone, but what do I know? Big downgrade for entire offense and has be concerned that volume is the only thing that'll save him. Maybe not as many tds but however Martin and lynch found ways to produce

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really hope this AB thing blows over, because losing him would seriously hurt Jacobs value, IMO.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

As a dynasty owner this brown news has me assuming he is all but gone, but what do I know? Big downgrade for entire offense and has be concerned that volume is the only thing that'll save him. Maybe not as many tds but however Martin and lynch found ways to produce

Martin was the #41 RB in PPR last season. I think Jacobs will produce more than that even if AB is gone for an extended time (or all season). But it has to scare Jacobs owners that Martin-level production could be a possibility.

Edited by Corleone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

7 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

I really hope this AB thing blows over, because losing him would seriously hurt Jacobs value, IMO.

 

Probably.  Though, it's possible it would mean even more volume for Jacobs, maybe some more catches.  Hard to say.... What you really don't want, and have to worry about now is if this team makes the transition from media circus to completely dysfunctional.  And in that case, everyone on the team pretty much fails.  I've seen it so many times with the Skins.  Hopefully Gruden can keep this team grounded somehow.  

Edited by mikeflavaz
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

 

 

Probably.  Though, it's possible it would mean even more volume for Jacobs, maybe some more catches.  Hard to say.... What you really don't want, and have to worry about now is if this team makes the transition from media circus to completely dysfunctional.  And in that case, everyone on the team pretty much fails.  I've seen it so many times with the Skins.  Hopefully Gruden can keep this team grounded somehow.  

Personally, I’d much rather have AB there to move the chains and get this offense in scoring position. I could see this guy being my biggest mistake if AB is gone. This offense is one giant question mark.. hope for the best?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, itschief33 said:

I could see this guy being my biggest mistake if AB is gone. This offense is one giant question mark.. hope for the best?

I take it you didn't draft Montgomery...

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

Probably.  Though, it's possible it would mean even more volume for Jacobs, maybe some more catches.  Hard to say.... 

 

This is my thought too.  It's not as simple as saying no AB, so the offense suffers, and Jacobs' production goes down.  The offense as a whole might score fewer points and pick up fewer yards.  But you also have to expect Jacobs picks up a bigger piece of the smaller pie.  If AB were gone, and Carr's safety valve from last year in Cook is gone, it might shift the dynamic of the offense to being more ground-oriented, and/or short passes to Jacobs more often.  

It could go either way, just saying it isn't an automatic negative for Jacobs necessarily.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When targets leave an offense, the RBs usually benefit big time. Take that as you wish. Jalen Richard might actually have some PPR flex appeal all year long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

When targets leave an offense, the RBs usually benefit big time. Take that as you wish. Jalen Richard might actually have some PPR flex appeal all year long.

Can you give examples. I can't see how losing their best playmaker who will keep the game scripts favorable, prevent def from not stacking the box, killing drives, and eliminating goal line chances helps. This from a josh jacobs owner, hes my rb1. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Can you give examples. I can't see how losing their best playmaker who will keep the game scripts favorable, prevent def from not stacking the box, killing drives, and eliminating goal line chances helps. This from a josh jacobs owner, hes my rb1. 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/vacated-targets-predicting-the-future-in-fantasy-football/

“there is at least one glaring trend that emerges from some of the top vacated target teams: they almost all pivoted to targeting the RB position more.”

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Make No Mistake: Josh Jacobs is 2019’s RB1

A classic old-school case of metrics vs. tape, Jacobs never had elite production at Alabama nor does he have world-beating athleticism. While sharing time with three NFL-caliber backs (Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris) plus two quarterbacks capable of rushing on their own — Josh Jacobs handled 15 or more touches just three times across 40 career games for the Crimson Tide.

The sample size may be limited, but Jacobs was nothing short of an efficient, difference-making piece for the Alabama offense in 2018. Even though his carries were sparse, Jacobs created five or more yards on 37% of his charted attempts last season, tying Saquon Barkley for the third-best rate over the last four college seasons. Alabama’s offensive line paved the way, but Yards Created revealed a highly instinctive runner who is capable of consistently making defenders miss at the next level. Jacobs’ 0.41 missed tackles forced per carry is the 10th-best mark in Yards Created history and puts him in the same conversation as Nick Chubb (0.47), Kareem Hunt (0.47), Sony Michel (0.46), Christian McCaffrey (0.40), and Ezekiel Elliott (0.38) coming out of college.

Jacobs’ passing down work was always limited, too — but his natural ability as a receiver and consistency in pass protection showed up while watching his 2018 snaps. Among the class, only Darrell Henderson (2.8) averaged more yards gained per route run than Jacobs (2.4) while his 88% pass protection execution rate is easily the top of the class and also ranks tied for sixth-best over the last four years.

While many backs in this year’s class have more questions than answers surrounding their profile, Josh Jacobs is the only prospect that has the all-around game that fits the modern, pass-heavy NFL with ease. If you are digging for more info on this year’s RB1, I wrote a full-length profile on Jacobs back in March.

 

Since there was alot of talk of D.Mont vs Jacobs-

 

Like Sanders, Iowa State’s David Montgomery has an NFL build (5-10, 222lbs) — but the combine revealed several holes in his athletic profile. Home run ability is not a necessary trait to succeed on the ground in the NFL, but Montgomery tested at or below the 50th percentile in the speed, jumping, and agility drills. All told, Montgomery is a 37th percentile SPARQ athlete.

While Montgomery is the top back in the class in missed tackles forced per carry (0.44), exactly 85 percent of those missed tackles came through either power or elusiveness. Montgomery’s lack of short-area burst and speed on his bigger frame significantly limited his ability to accelerate to the second-level and create in crowded interior spaces. On his charted carries, Montgomery created just 2.89 yards per attempt in between the tackles — by far the worst clip in the class. Montgomery is best-suited as an outside-zone runner at the next level who needs the defense to flow laterally so he can set up cutback lanes and make defenders miss with his natural wiggle and power.

 

https://yardscreated.com/2019/04/22/yards-created-notebook-2019/

Edited by buzzkilloton
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Can you give examples. I can't see how losing their best playmaker who will keep the game scripts favorable, prevent def from not stacking the box, killing drives, and eliminating goal line chances helps. This from a josh jacobs owner, hes my rb1. 

1) Alshon Jeffery (Bears 2016 to Eagles 2017

   -   bears RB fantasy points increase by 11%

 

2) Landry (Dolphins 2017 to Browns 2018)

   -   Dolphins RB fantasy points increase by 41%

 

2015 Lions to 2016 Lions is not really comparable IMO as they went from Calvin directly to Marvin Jones + Anquan Boldin and had the same exact RBs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Make No Mistake: Josh Jacobs is 2019’s RB1

A classic old-school case of metrics vs. tape, Jacobs never had elite production at Alabama nor does he have world-beating athleticism. While sharing time with three NFL-caliber backs (Bo Scarbrough, Damien Harris, and Najee Harris) plus two quarterbacks capable of rushing on their own — Josh Jacobs handled 15 or more touches just three times across 40 career games for the Crimson Tide.

The sample size may be limited, but Jacobs was nothing short of an efficient, difference-making piece for the Alabama offense in 2018. Even though his carries were sparse, Jacobs created five or more yards on 37% of his charted attempts last season, tying Saquon Barkley for the third-best rate over the last four college seasons. Alabama’s offensive line paved the way, but Yards Created revealed a highly instinctive runner who is capable of consistently making defenders miss at the next level. Jacobs’ 0.41 missed tackles forced per carry is the 10th-best mark in Yards Created history and puts him in the same conversation as Nick Chubb (0.47), Kareem Hunt (0.47), Sony Michel (0.46), Christian McCaffrey (0.40), and Ezekiel Elliott (0.38) coming out of college.

Jacobs’ passing down work was always limited, too — but his natural ability as a receiver and consistency in pass protection showed up while watching his 2018 snaps. Among the class, only Darrell Henderson (2.8) averaged more yards gained per route run than Jacobs (2.4) while his 88% pass protection execution rate is easily the top of the class and also ranks tied for sixth-best over the last four years.

While many backs in this year’s class have more questions than answers surrounding their profile, Josh Jacobs is the only prospect that has the all-around game that fits the modern, pass-heavy NFL with ease. If you are digging for more info on this year’s RB1, I wrote a full-length profile on Jacobs back in March.

 

Since there was alot of talk of D.Mont vs Jacobs-

 

Like Sanders, Iowa State’s David Montgomery has an NFL build (5-10, 222lbs) — but the combine revealed several holes in his athletic profile. Home run ability is not a necessary trait to succeed on the ground in the NFL, but Montgomery tested at or below the 50th percentile in the speed, jumping, and agility drills. All told, Montgomery is a 37th percentile SPARQ athlete.

While Montgomery is the top back in the class in missed tackles forced per carry (0.44), exactly 85 percent of those missed tackles came through either power or elusiveness. Montgomery’s lack of short-area burst and speed on his bigger frame significantly limited his ability to accelerate to the second-level and create in crowded interior spaces. On his charted carries, Montgomery created just 2.89 yards per attempt in between the tackles — by far the worst clip in the class. Montgomery is best-suited as an outside-zone runner at the next level who needs the defense to flow laterally so he can set up cutback lanes and make defenders miss with his natural wiggle and power.

 

https://yardscreated.com/2019/04/22/yards-created-notebook-2019/

Thank you for the post. Out of everyone I drafted (im only on one team this year) I'm excited to see this guy.  I had a choice of him or David Montgomery, let's see how this plays out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's just hope we don't get a Montgomery type stat line with Richard playing as much as Davis did. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Let's just hope we don't get a Montgomery type stat line with Richard playing as much as Davis did. 

Shhh!! What are you doing!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Let's just hope we don't get a Montgomery type stat line with Richard playing as much as Davis did. 

 

Could happen, but I doubt it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/6/2019 at 2:04 AM, SadFaceHappy said:

I take it you didn't draft Montgomery...

 

You mean the guy who is in a 3 headed RBBC in CHI.....that Montgomery?

You can keep him.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.