DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Jacobs 2019 Outlook

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21 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Jacobs is currently slotted between Fournette, Henry, Jones, Freeman, Michel, Lindsay, Ingram and Kerryon.  How would everyone rank these players given this is the top-middle RB2 candidates.  

 

A few things:

I think Oakland has the worst offensive line of all these players.

Jones, Freeman, Michel all definitively are part of a better offense.

Jacobs is the only rookie of this bunch.

I expect Jacobs to be used more heavily in the pass game than Fournette, Henry, and Michel.

While he has a 3 down skill-set, Richard isn't going to completely vanish.

 

If I'm picking and these are the best RBs available I think I would take Freeman, Michel, Ingram, Fournette (in no order) before I would take Jacobs.

 

for me, i don't know if i'd pick sony michel over josh jacobs, but that's more about me and my annual fight with belichick (and i always lose). but i agree with your other RBs, and i'd add: i would take aaron jones, chris carson, and marlon mack over josh jacobs.

i like josh jacobs, like what i've seen, but realistically the kid was part of a 3-back committee seeing limited touches, so my big question is, can josh jacobs handle a full NFL 3-back load? not necessarily, will jacobs be used fully? also, i like when jalen richard gets the ball: seems like his explosiveness has not diminished and gruden likes explosiveness. he's fun to watch. in dynasty, in this draft class, i like josh jacobs. in redraft, i'd like to see him prove that he's NFL durable.

@dashoe @gufomel @DerrickHenrysCleats @Boudewijn

some realistic comments in this thread, gentlemen, which is great to see (albeit rare), these leading the main implication imo ------ josh jacobs had 85 carries his first year, 46 his second year (in 11 games), and 120 carries in his final year. he makes good on his production, and on one hand he doesn't have much tread worn off his tires, but the other hand is clear: his lack of use in college raises a question mark (projection mark?) regarding repeated hits from NFL linemen and NFL linebackers and the likelihood of jacobs walking away without limping.

 

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44 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

for me, i don't know if i'd pick sony michel over josh jacobs, but that's more about me and my annual fight with belichick (and i always lose). but i agree with your other RBs, and i'd add: i would take aaron jones, chris carson, and marlon mack over josh jacobs.

i like josh jacobs, like what i've seen, but realistically the kid was part of a 3-back committee seeing limited touches, so my big question is, can josh jacobs handle a full NFL 3-back load? not necessarily, will jacobs be used fully? also, i like when jalen richard gets the ball: seems like his explosiveness has not diminished and gruden likes explosiveness. he's fun to watch. in dynasty, in this draft class, i like josh jacobs. in redraft, i'd like to see him prove that he's NFL durable.

@dashoe @gufomel @DerrickHenrysCleats @Boudewijn

some realistic comments in this thread, gentlemen, which is great to see (albeit rare), these leading the main implication imo ------ josh jacobs had 85 carries his first year, 46 his second year (in 11 games), and 120 carries in his final year. he makes good on his production, and on one hand he doesn't have much tread worn off his tires, but the other hand is clear: his lack of use in college raises a question mark (projection mark?) regarding repeated hits from NFL linemen and NFL linebackers and the likelihood of jacobs walking away without limping.

 

 

Chris Carson did almost nothing in college.

I understand the skepticism with Jacobs. Definitely gonna start the year sharing carries in my opinion. I just hope that the cream rises to the top by mid-season. It's tough for me to gauge redraft ADP cause I don't play redraft but I'd be a little weary of drafting him high in redraft cause of the supposed rookie wall he could hit come fantasy playoff time.

In dynasty I expect Jacobs to take over the backfield completely in 2020 with maybe Richard sharing some.

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49 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

  josh jacobs had 85 carries his first year, 46 his second year (in 11 games), and 120 carries in his final year. he makes good on his production, and on one hand he doesn't have much tread worn off his tires, but the other hand is clear: his lack of use in college raises a question mark (projection mark?) regarding repeated hits from NFL linemen and NFL linebackers and the likelihood of jacobs walking away without limping.

 

If john Gruden uses this guy like how we all think he will (do it all back) I believe we should treat him similar to a melvin gordon. (Not saying to draft him where you would melvin!)

Gordon has proven to be a adequate rusher and reciever. Strong enough to break tackles. Good enough vision to make proper cuts, explosive enough to burst through the line and fast enough to get the corner. However we see him get roughed up and out of a few games every year. I think josh Jacob's looks like a guy who can do everything I just said melvin can do and his history of soft tissue injuries could cause him to miss some time. 

The large difference may be Gordon's ability to score touchdowns consistently for 3 years now. Which is what has made him such a fantasy asset.

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On 5/7/2019 at 6:37 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I would take Jacobs over firnette because Firnette has chronic ankle problems dating back to his time at LSU. Also because Firnette has been suspended a couple different times over attitude issues. I believe Jacobs has an ideal team first attitude, has a high football IQ, catches the ball better than Firnette, Jacobs runs elite routes for a RB, Firnette has stone hands.

Jacobs has some soft tissue injury history that is a little worrisome but I'd rather have his all around game especially in PPR over a guy like Firnette who could hurt his ankle or throw a temper tantrum and be out a few critical games of the fantasy season.

 

Jacobs was sharing the carries at Alabama so it would be obtuse to claim Jacobs was better than Firnette coming out of college because LSU allowed Firnette to run up stats on lesser teams. Josh Jacobs rarely had to even play in the 4th quarter last year since Bama was winning most games by 30.

 

Jacobs has a better all around game than firnette. Elite pass catcher and route runner, understands pass blocking assignments, isn't a liability to QB on 3rd downs.

 

The least you can do is spell the man's name right rather than purposefully misspelling it repeatedly. You honestly lose credibility when you do something as petty as that. 

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On 5/10/2019 at 8:35 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

The least you can do is spell the man's name right rather than purposefully misspelling it repeatedly. You honestly lose credibility when you do something as petty as that. 

 

Clapping Leonardo Dicaprio GIF - Clapping LeonardoDicaprio LeoDicaprio GIFs

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On 5/9/2019 at 11:36 AM, Sack Exchange said:

 

for me, i don't know if i'd pick sony michel over josh jacobs, but that's more about me and my annual fight with belichick (and i always lose). but i agree with your other RBs, and i'd add: i would take aaron jones, chris carson, and marlon mack over josh jacobs.

 

 

100% agree with those RBs over Jacobs as well. 

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Hilarious that David Montgomery is thought to be slow (4.63 at the combine) while Jacobs couldn't break 4.6 at his first pro day (which is like a 4.7 at the combine); he needed a second pro day to post a 4.56 40.  

 

I don't care if I get flamed about this in the future...Josh Jacobs is likely to be the biggest fantasy bust in this draft.  For him to even have a TRich career (where TRich was an RB1 as a rookie) would be an achievement. He's going to get plenty of opportunity because the whole world knew that Gruden loved him before the draft, and Gruden doesn't like to be proven wrong about his draft decisions (of course, he usually is, as his drafting track record suggests). 

 

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On 5/18/2019 at 9:08 PM, joshua18 said:

Hilarious that David Montgomery is thought to be slow (4.63 at the combine) while Jacobs couldn't break 4.6 at his first pro day (which is like a 4.7 at the combine); he needed a second pro day to post a 4.56 40.  

 

I don't care if I get flamed about this in the future...Josh Jacobs is likely to be the biggest fantasy bust in this draft.  For him to even have a TRich career (where TRich was an RB1 as a rookie) would be an achievement. He's going to get plenty of opportunity because the whole world knew that Gruden loved him before the draft, and Gruden doesn't like to be proven wrong about his draft decisions (of course, he usually is, as his drafting track record suggests). 

 

 

Great Post!  Well stated!

Also, Doug Martin played like he wants a job last year.  This team is a dysfunctional mess.  Antonio Brown will put up some numbers.  The rest will be fun to watch.

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I can see him being a top 12 RB. He will get used a ton and the team should be better with Carr in a 2nd year with Gruden and upgraded weapons.

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On 5/18/2019 at 11:39 AM, Fort4242 said:

100% agree with those RBs over Jacobs as well. 

I agree on A Jones. No way would I take Mack or Carson over Jacobs. Mack doesn't catch and will share the ball a lot and is inconsistent anyway, while Carson you can't trust to stay healthy and may get spelled because of that too. I don't expect amazing things from Jacobs, but I like his odds to be at least a solid RB2 with upside for more. As for his speed, straightline speed gets way over-emphasized. Burst to the hole, cutback ability etc are far more important. 

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On 5/7/2019 at 6:37 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I believe Jacobs catches the ball better than Firnette, Jacobs runs elite routes for a RB, Firnette has stone hands.

 

Jacobs has a better all around game than firnette. Elite pass catcher and route runner, understands pass blocking assignments, isn't a liability to QB on 3rd downs.

It's funny because Fournette and Jacobs had identical receiving stats in college.  Fournette actually averaged more per reception, at LSU nonetheless.

 

Why didn't you mention anything about their rushing ability?  They are RB's.

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why didn't you mention anything about their rushing ability?  They are RB's.

Yeah, but one was Bama, and the other one a Tiger. DHC lives in the past, and is uninterested in 2019 fantasy, unless a Bama guy performs well.

He puts the "fan" in fantasy, which makes for tough conversations.

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's funny because Fournette and Jacobs had identical receiving stats in college.  Fournette actually averaged more per reception, at LSU nonetheless.

 

Why didn't you mention anything about their rushing ability?  They are RB's.

 

Jacobs shared the load in college.

 

Firnette was their full time starting RB

 

Jacobs is a much better receiver than LF

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Yeah, but one was Bama, and the other one a Tiger. DHC lives in the past, and is uninterested in 2019 fantasy, unless a Bama guy performs well.

He puts the "fan" in fantasy, which makes for tough conversations.

 

Yeah, well, that's like your opinion, man. I talk most about guys who I have seen a lot with my own eyes and feel like I have useful input to add. If you don't like what I share then just move along. No harm, no foul.

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This guys seems safe enough to me. Should have a 250 carry 40 catch season. Maybe 1500 total with double digit touchdowns? Not sure why everyone seems so down on him. Long speed is overrated for a RB. It’s all about short area quickness and ability to run through tackles. He’s a plus blocker and catcher, should be on the field a lot. I like him in the top 40. Id prefer over a lot of guys in that range. 

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30 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

This guys seems safe enough to me. Should have a 250 carry 40 catch season. Maybe 1500 total with double digit touchdowns? Not sure why everyone seems so down on him. 

I don't think they're down on him, he's just totally unproven, and so is this team basically after a huge overhaul. I like his potential but a little cautious too. Same for Brown. 

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3 minutes ago, bomont said:

I don't think they're down on him, he's just totally unproven, and so is this team basically after a huge overhaul. I like his potential but a little cautious too. Same for Brown. 

As long he’s the workhorse I have no fears honestly. If he splits touches I’ll avoid. Not many backs fall flat on their face when given the workload though, usually. Brown scares me for top 20 ADP. No thanks. 

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40 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

This guys seems safe enough to me. Should have a 250 carry 40 catch season. Maybe 1500 total with double digit touchdowns? Not sure why everyone seems so down on him.

 

you realize that 1500 total yards and double-digit TDs would place him in the RB rookies #9 through #6 of all time category with LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, and Alvin Kamara, respectively?  i’d suggest that’s on the lofty side as far as predictions go.

like @bomont

mentions, the skepticism revolves more around his unprovenness, and my emphasis here is on jacobs' unproven durability, not talent: his college touches were minimal, though he flashed when given the opportunity. there are some awfully hard-hitting linemen and linebackers he'll be facing and they won't give jacobs a break because he's the new guy...

giphy.gif

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14 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

As long as he’s the workhorse I have no fears honestly. If he splits touches I’ll avoid. 

You're somehow going to know this before your draft?

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Jeez.. I didn't realize the Raiders offense was so sought after

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7 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

you realize that 1500 total yards and double-digit TDs would place him in the RB rookies #9 through #6 of all time category with LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, and Alvin Kamara, respectively?  i’d suggest that’s on the lofty side as far as predictions go.

like @bomont

 

mentions, the skepticism revolves more around his unprovenness, and my emphasis here is on jacobs' unproven durability, not talent: his college touches were minimal, though he flashed when given the opportunity. there are some awfully hard-hitting linemen and linebackers he'll be facing and they won't give jacobs a break because he's the new guy...

giphy.gif

It is a little lofty. 1100 rushing and 400 receiving seems pretty reasonable though and they LOVE to run the ball on the goaline. I’m not concerned about durability, injuries are a crapshoot. I’d prefer fresh legs to 1200 college carries for sure. 

3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You're somehow going to know this before your draft?

Not at all, that’s the biggest problem lol. 

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On 6/16/2019 at 7:28 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Jacobs shared the load in college.

 

Firnette was their full time starting RB

That's not helping your argument 

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11 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

you realize that 1500 total yards and double-digit TDs would place him in the RB rookies #9 through #6 of all time category with LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, and Alvin Kamara, respectively?  i’d suggest that’s on the lofty side as far as predictions go.

 

giphy.gif

After seeing Barkley had a 1198 rushing 688 receiving line I actually agree with you. He’s half as skilled as Barkley and He won’t touch that. Maybe 900/300. I do think double digit touchdowns is possible though. 

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