Joe Odam

Sammy Watkins 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm not sure you read what I wrote.

His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more.

 

Yeah Sammy has all of it, except for the part about actually playing in the games. Awesome player when healthy, trust me

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

The concerning thing is how often that Pedal foot is included in the injury history. Great player when healthy though I'll agree to that

 

Is that the same issue Fournette has?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Is that the same issue Fournette has?

I think fournettes is more his ankle than his foot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm not sure you read what I wrote.

His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more.

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

Edited by paulwall29
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

 

There isn't one. There is a reason he was drafted so high.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

Well, the injury thing is a big one. His foot can fall apart at any time

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

The concerning thing is how often that Pedal foot is included in the injury history. Great player when healthy though I'll agree to that

 

even more concerning, we're talking about both feet. your previous post with the injury listing didn't specify, but in 2018 it was his right foot, which has not been injured since 2012. for three years, from 2015 to 2017, we're looking at the left foot injury.

55 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

 

while i agree with your post's implication, that watkins has all the skills to be a WR1, i'm not sure it really matters considering the extent of his injury history. watkins is best in daily fantasy: he can produce at high levels when on the field. but for season-long redraft, he's an orthopedist surgeon's wet dream.

Date League Injury Details
Nov 19, 2018 NFL Pedal Foot Watkins lasted just 5 snaps in his attempt to return from injuring his right foot. He missed the final 5 regular-season games, following a Week 12 bye. Watkins returned for the playoffs.
Nov 4, 2018 NFL Pedal Foot Watkins suffered an unspecified right foot injury against the Browns and missed the following game.
Sep 21, 2017 NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1 Watkins departed in Week 3 but returned for Week 4.
Jan 1, 2017 NFL Pedal Foot Fracture Watkins had 2 screws inserted into his previously fractured and repaired left foot, following multiple recovery setbacks.
Sep 20, 2016 NFL Pedal Foot Watkins missed Week 3 and then landed on IR -- designated to return -- after a teammate stepped on his surgically repaired left foot in a walkthrough. He missed 8 games, returning in Week 12.
Apr 13, 2016 NFL Pedal Foot Fracture Watkins fractured his left foot in an April workout training and needed a screw inserted.
Oct 18, 2015 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 Watkins sprained his left ankle on a TD reception in Week 6 and missed the next 2 games.
Sep 27, 2015 NFL Leg Calf Strain Watkins suffered a reportedly "mild" strain to his left calf against the Dolphins in Week 3 but did miss 2 games.
Aug 17, 2015 NFL Thigh Glute Strain Watkins sat out the final 3 preseason games with a glute injury.
Nov 30, 2014 NFL Inguinal Hip Tear Watkins had minor surgery after the season to fix a slight tear in the labrum in his hip. The injury cost him no game time.
Nov 5, 2014 NFL Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1 Watkins had a minor groin pull in practice coming out of the Week 9 bye that did not cost him any playing time.
Aug 28, 2014 NFL Chest Rib Bruise Watkins aggravated a previous rib bruise and left the preseason game against the Steelers.
Aug 16, 2014 NFL Chest Rib Bruise The rookie missed 1 preseason game after sustaining a rib bruise in the 3rd preseason game.
Dec 31, 2012 Non-NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 The Clemson star WR was knocked out of the Chick-fil-A Bowl against LSU on the second play of the game with a right ankle sprain.
Nov 12, 2011 Non-NFL Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain Watkins missed 1 game after spraining his right shoulder against Wake Forest in November.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Well, the injury thing is a big one. His foot can fall apart at any time

 

Yeah he will probably get hurt. The OP was questioning if a hypothetically healthy Sammy can be a WR1. And he absolutely can be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Yeah he will probably get hurt. The OP was questioning if a hypothetically healthy Sammy can be a WR1. And he absolutely can be.

Healthy he is a wr1 potential top5, the talent and skill is there combined with the arm of mahommes.

What is the discount/haircut needed to draft him and not get burned?

I think mecole is the shiny new toy that the bloggers and the herds who follow them  will push up the board if mecole has one big td pass in the preseason or someone posts a practice clip and Watkins may come with a fair value discount. 

Alshon jeffries gets banged up every season and guys tend to reach for him which is sort of my comp, even keenan was a big risk 2yrs inn a row  but guys pushed him hup the board

Edited by dashoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, dashoe said:

What is the discount/haircut needed to draft him and not get burned?

 

his current round 7 ADP seems fair enough to avoid getting burned. the upside is high enough that watkins should return solid value here.

i'd suggest we can plan on 10 games, and if he's producing WR2 numbers for 10 games, reaching up to WR1 on occasion, that's great.

there will be duds due to injury, when watkins leaves the field hobbled. this is the wildcard. knowing he's sitting is easy, but when he's slightly injured but playing, it's anyone's guess.

the other WRs at his ADP are james washington, larry fitzgerald, desean Jackson, marvin jones, tyler boyd, will fuller, robby anderson.

maybe fuller and anderson have the upside of watkins when the moon is waxing and the wind is at their backs, but fuller also rivals watkins for injuries and anderson is one traffic traffic stop away from a felony.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

This is Sammy's career:

image.png.032f354fbb7c733b365c0c34ad22dd56.png

What you see here is that his production per game has dropped over the years.

Specifically:
- 2014-2015: he had around 4 catches a game for 70 yd and .5 TD. That's pretty good with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor throwing wobblers at you (although that was Taylor's best year, ending up 8th in terms of passer rating). 

- 2016-2018 (that was the claim I was making): he dropped to 3.2 catches and 47 yards per game (with .4 TD). 
In 2015 he ranked as WR11 in terms of yards per game. From 2016 that dropped to 41 (with the same Taylor), then 72 in 2017 (Goff), and in 2018 he was 35 with 51 yards per game (Mahomes).
That's a load of useless stats, but just to say that his first 2 years in the league were great, and since then, they were ok. 

Of course you can claim that all of this is the fault of the QBs, of the coaches, or of many other things, but in my mind, coaches and QBs generally have a way of forcing the ball to the best receivers. If they don't, that's generally a sign you're not really the best receiver on the team. So let's look at the games he was healthy in each season:

2016, week 11-16: Sammy is still the top dog, but by a hair (in 2015 he was clearly the #1 receiver over weeks 6-16).

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Sammy Watkins

WR

23

6

41

22

367

16.68

2

53.70%

8.95

2

Charles Clay

TE

27

5

34

23

246

10.7

4

67.60%

7.24

3

LeSean McCoy

RB

28

6

26

24

212

8.83

0

92.30%

8.15

4

Robert Woods

WR

24

4

16

9

120

13.33

0

56.30%

7.5

5

Justin Hunter

WR

25

6

10

4

118

29.5

1

40.00%

11.8

6

Marquise Goodwin

WR

26

6

28

11

115

10.45

0

39.30%

4.11

 

2017, week 1-15: Sammy in LA drops to 4 in the pecking order.

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Cooper Kupp

WR

24

15

94

62

869

14.02

5

66.00%

9.24

2

Todd Gurley

RB

23

15

87

64

788

12.31

6

73.60%

9.06

3

Robert Woods

WR

25

12

85

56

781

13.95

5

65.90%

9.19

4

Sammy Watkins

WR

24

15

70

39

593

15.21

8

55.70%

8.47

5

Tyler Higbee

TE

24

15

45

25

295

11.8

1

55.60%

6.56

6

Gerald Everett

TE

23

15

26

13

228

17.54

2

50.00%

8.77

2018: Sammy is #3 in Kansas over week 1-9 (his main healthy period):

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Tyreek Hill

WR

24

9

70

48

774

16.13

7

68.60%

11.06

2

Travis Kelce

TE

28

9

79

51

741

14.53

6

64.60%

9.38

3

Sammy Watkins

WR

25

9

54

39

515

13.21

3

72.20%

9.54

4

Kareem Hunt

RB

23

9

29

21

312

14.86

6

72.40%

10.76

5

Spencer Ware

RB

26

9

16

13

158

12.15

0

81.30%

9.88

6

Chris Conley

WR

25

9

21

14

127

9.07

2

66.70%

6.05

So it's clear that in 2017/2018 he was targeted less, even when healthy. I don't know exactly WHY, and I don't care so much, but his coaches and QBs thought that Kupp/Woods, and Hill/Kelce were better options; in 2017-2018, he had zero games with double digit targets.

Now Reid doesn't have much of a choice, I guess, but I am still not convinced Watkins automatically slides into the #1 position. In 2017-2018 he was on target for say 700 yd for the season. Can he still be a 1000+yd receiver when healthy? Let us hope so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This is Sammy's career:

image.png.032f354fbb7c733b365c0c34ad22dd56.png

What you see here is that his production per game has dropped over the years.

Specifically:
- 2014-2015: he had around 4 catches a game for 70 yd and .5 TD. That's pretty good with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor throwing wobblers at you (although that was Taylor's best year, ending up 8th in terms of passer rating). 

- 2016-2018 (that was the claim I was making): he dropped to 3.2 catches and 47 yards per game (with .4 TD). 
In 2015 he ranked as WR11 in terms of yards per game. From 2016 that dropped to 41 (with the same Taylor), then 72 in 2017 (Goff), and in 2018 he was 35 with 51 yards per game (Mahomes).
That's a load of useless stats, but just to say that his first 2 years in the league were great, and since then, they were ok. 

Of course you can claim that all of this is the fault of the QBs, of the coaches, or of many other things, but in my mind, coaches and QBs generally have a way of forcing the ball to the best receivers. If they don't, that's generally a sign you're not really the best receiver on the team. So let's look at the games he was healthy in each season:

2016, week 11-16: Sammy is still the top dog, but by a hair (in 2015 he was clearly the #1 receiver over weeks 6-16).

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Sammy Watkins

WR

23

6

41

22

367

16.68

2

53.70%

8.95

2

Charles Clay

TE

27

5

34

23

246

10.7

4

67.60%

7.24

3

LeSean McCoy

RB

28

6

26

24

212

8.83

0

92.30%

8.15

4

Robert Woods

WR

24

4

16

9

120

13.33

0

56.30%

7.5

5

Justin Hunter

WR

25

6

10

4

118

29.5

1

40.00%

11.8

6

Marquise Goodwin

WR

26

6

28

11

115

10.45

0

39.30%

4.11

 

2017, week 1-15: Sammy in LA drops to 4 in the pecking order.

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Cooper Kupp

WR

24

15

94

62

869

14.02

5

66.00%

9.24

2

Todd Gurley

RB

23

15

87

64

788

12.31

6

73.60%

9.06

3

Robert Woods

WR

25

12

85

56

781

13.95

5

65.90%

9.19

4

Sammy Watkins

WR

24

15

70

39

593

15.21

8

55.70%

8.47

5

Tyler Higbee

TE

24

15

45

25

295

11.8

1

55.60%

6.56

6

Gerald Everett

TE

23

15

26

13

228

17.54

2

50.00%

8.77

2018: Sammy is #3 in Kansas over week 1-9 (his main healthy period):

Rk

Player

Pos

Age

G

Tgt

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

Ctch%

Y/Tgt

1

Tyreek Hill

WR

24

9

70

48

774

16.13

7

68.60%

11.06

2

Travis Kelce

TE

28

9

79

51

741

14.53

6

64.60%

9.38

3

Sammy Watkins

WR

25

9

54

39

515

13.21

3

72.20%

9.54

4

Kareem Hunt

RB

23

9

29

21

312

14.86

6

72.40%

10.76

5

Spencer Ware

RB

26

9

16

13

158

12.15

0

81.30%

9.88

6

Chris Conley

WR

25

9

21

14

127

9.07

2

66.70%

6.05

So it's clear that in 2017/2018 he was targeted less, even when healthy. I don't know exactly WHY, and I don't care so much, but his coaches and QBs thought that Kupp/Woods, and Hill/Kelce were better options; in 2017-2018, he had zero games with double digit targets.

Now Reid doesn't have much of a choice, I guess, but I am still not convinced Watkins automatically slides into the #1 position. In 2017-2018 he was on target for say 700 yd for the season. Can he still be a 1000+yd receiver when healthy? Let us hope so.

 

Sammy's banged up and not playing so much that I doubt that a graph is showing much. Just don't draft him, you are putting in a lot of effort to show he's not good.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

Sammy's banged up and not playing so much that I doubt that a graph is showing much. Just don't draft him, you are putting in a lot of effort to show he's not good.

Too bad you didn't read what I wrote.

That's ok though, I admit many of my posts (including the above) are mostly me muttering to myself.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Too bad you didn't read what I wrote.

That's ok though, I admit many of my posts (including the above) are mostly me muttering to myself.

 

You are correct, I skimmed over it. I've been following Sammy since college (Clemson fan), so I feel confident in my assessment of him without having to look at any advanced metrics or anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man I swear every year my mid-late round wrs always rise in adp the following year. Much easier for me to pick out good wrs late than rbs. 

 

Only issue with this guy is injury concerns. I laid out a whole argument in the watkins thread last year detailing how he played a decoy role for the rams until they got into the red zone which is why he didn’t produce much. Also bc goff can only go through two progressions, one of which is a check down to gurley.

But yeah, Watkins good. will probably play 10 games if I had to guess, wont be worth his adp for that reason. Honestly his whole career has been the same story. Great talent, can’t stay healthy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sammy getting less targets than tyreek the freak and arguably the best TE in football (he is imo) shouldn’t be a knock on watkins but I’m not really surprised it is being used as such

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The other overlooked aspect the last couple years is him being on a new team each year. The year with the rams, he was traded just before the start of the season. 

Continuity can definitely help. His talent, second year in the system, and tyreek likely being our for a prolonged period of time (if not the year, I would hope it would end his career if true) leads me to  think that Watkins will finally live up to his potential if he is healthy (which is a big if). In the ~7th round, I think that is definitely worth the risk. A miss in that area shouldn’t sink your team, but a huge hit like he has the potential to be can certainly make your team. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nyg350 said:

The other overlooked aspect the last couple years is him being on a new team each year. The year with the rams, he was traded just before the start of the season. 

Continuity can definitely help. His talent, second year in the system, and tyreek likely being our for a prolonged period of time (if not the year, I would hope it would end his career if true) leads me to  think that Watkins will finally live up to his potential if he is healthy (which is a big if). In the ~7th round, I think that is definitely worth the risk. A miss in that area shouldn’t sink your team, but a huge hit like he has the potential to be can certainly make your team. 

 

He's the #1 WR on an elite offense. Why would he be available in the 7th rd of drafts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's the #1 WR on an elite offense. Why would he be available in the 7th rd of drafts?

 

Because he gets hurt all the time. Same reason Fournette is going in the third. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/1/2019 at 4:53 PM, paulwall29 said:

 

Outside of injury concern, I'd love to hear a coherent argument as to why he doesn't have the traits to be a number 1 receiver besides "His talent is undeniable. But being a #1 WR is more than just that. A lot more." He led the league in catch rate through 9 games last season and put together a WR1 season in Buffalo with some of the most atrocious quarterback play you'll ever see.

 

What was the excuse for sammy not producing with the rams? Brilliant coach. Number 1 wide receiver on the team, qb play was pretty good. But he wasn't worth a darn but for 2 or 3 games. Then they let him go and bring in cooks and he is immediately successful. Is that an argument for why he isnt a #1 wr? Not being sarcastic just trying to make the argument.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

What was the excuse for sammy not producing with the rams? Brilliant coach. Number 1 wide receiver on the team, qb play was pretty good. But he wasn't worth a darn but for 2 or 3 games. Then they let him go and bring in cooks and he is immediately successful. Is that an argument for why he isnt a #1 wr? Not being sarcastic just trying to make the argument.

Lmao

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

What was the excuse for sammy not producing with the rams? Brilliant coach. Number 1 wide receiver on the team, qb play was pretty good. But he wasn't worth a darn but for 2 or 3 games. Then they let him go and bring in cooks and he is immediately successful. Is that an argument for why he isnt a #1 wr? Not being sarcastic just trying to make the argument.

 

He wasnt really the number 1 WR on that team. Kupp is Goffs binky. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Lmao

 

I think you are thinking of 2016. Goff was pretty good when Sammy played there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I think you are thinking of 2016. Goff was pretty good when Sammy played there.

I don’t think he’s been good his entire career so

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

I don’t think he’s been good his entire career so

 

Im not a fan either. But in terms of being able to support a WR1, which is the only thing relevant to this discussion, his numbers say he was fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...