The 7th Beatles

D. K. Metcalf 2019 Outlook

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44 minutes ago, Hops said:

Anyone see any value in this kid? My WR bench includes Desean, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller and I’m tempted now that he’s practicing and on track. Seems like the only WR2 available for Russ if he’s playing l

Late season bloomer imo

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54 minutes ago, Hops said:

Anyone see any value in this kid? My WR bench includes Desean, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller and I’m tempted now that he’s practicing and on track. Seems like the only WR2 available for Russ if he’s playing 

He's off to a slow start. Jaron Brown will probably begin the season as the #2. Get in in dynasty leagues. Redraft? Probably, as well. But he's a stash for now.

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

He's off to a slow start. Jaron Brown will probably begin the season as the #2. Get in in dynasty leagues. Redraft? Probably, as well. But he's a stash for now.

I thought Jaron Brown got cut...?

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Just now, havey16 said:

I thought Jaron Brown got cut...?

 

They brought him back.

 

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I'm stashing him in both Redraft and Keeper

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Rookie WRs are always tough. That being said, while Metcalf has a limited route tree he damn well can go deep.

Wilson has a very good deep ball.

I doubt he becomes a weekly starter and will probably have a lot of 1-20-0 sort of games but he should become a good bye week fill for sure. A few 4-110-1 sort of games wouldn’t surprise me. 

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Russel Wilson throws a very catchable deep passes. 

 

You have to think that they will get plenty of good play-action looks if Carson gets going. 

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Just now, The 7th Beatles said:

 

As if anyone outside of the deepest of leagues is actually going to start him, lol.

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Just now, smeeze said:

As if anyone outside of the deepest of leagues is actually going to start him, lol.

Considering him in my Flex (16T -- start three WRs)

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Just now, Spina said:

Considering him in my Flex (16T -- start three WRs)

That probably falls under "the deepest of leagues". He's nothing more than a dart throw week 1 IMO.

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1 minute ago, smeeze said:

As if anyone outside of the deepest of leagues is actually going to start him, lol.

I might in one league. Super heavy on RBs (most of my bench) but there are quite a few WRs on the wire. 

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On 9/3/2019 at 3:54 PM, Yanksfan06 said:

Very excited to see what he has..but definitely won’t be starting him week 1.

 

Agree.

Seems like there is a huge opportunity open in the Seattle passing game and I think their schedule in the beginning of the season could set up into making them pass quite a bit.

Jaron Brown is a JAG who was cut....David Moore is out....Really not much outside of Lockett at WR.  And Lockett has never proven to be a high volume WR.

I'm always cautious with rookie WR's but this is one that could hit IMO.  I could see a season like Courtalnd Sutton had last year as a starting point and hopefully a bit more since Wilson is way better than anything the Broncos were running out at QB.

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3 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

Agree.

Seems like there is a huge opportunity open in the Seattle passing game and I think their schedule in the beginning of the season could set up into making them pass quite a bit.

Jaron Brown is a JAG who was cut....David Moore is out....Really not much outside of Lockett at WR.  And Lockett has never proven to be a high volume WR.

I'm always cautious with rookie WR's but this is one that could hit IMO.  I could see a season like Courtalnd Sutton had last year as a starting point and hopefully a bit more since Wilson is way better than anything the Broncos were running out at QB.

I happen to have Metcalf and Sutton, which probably isn't a good thing lol. Let's hope Russ and Flacco bomb away.

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Coming into this thread I expected to read a lot of people touting Metcalf as a sleeper, instead I find a bunch of debbie downers in here. One of the most physically gifted WR's to come out of college football in years paired up with an Elite level QB like Wilson and no one is giving him a shot. I am baffled at all the nay-saying going on. He appears to be the #2 behind Lockett and will definitely be given a shot to see if he can perform as one of Wilson's main targets. I myself am excited to have Metcalf in the late rounds!

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4 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

Coming into this thread I expected to read a lot of people touting Metcalf as a sleeper, instead I find a bunch of debbie downers in here. One of the most physically gifted WR's to come out of college football in years paired up with an Elite level QB like Wilson and no one is giving him a shot. I am baffled at all the nay-saying going on. He appears to be the #2 behind Lockett and will definitely be given a shot to see if he can perform as one of Wilson's main targets. I myself am excited to have Metcalf in the late rounds!

I'm hoping Metcalf goes under the radar. This forum will be flooded next week when he goes 3 catches- 240 yards

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22 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

Coming into this thread I expected to read a lot of people touting Metcalf as a sleeper, instead I find a bunch of debbie downers in here. One of the most physically gifted WR's to come out of college football in years paired up with an Elite level QB like Wilson and no one is giving him a shot. I am baffled at all the nay-saying going on. He appears to be the #2 behind Lockett and will definitely be given a shot to see if he can perform as one of Wilson's main targets. I myself am excited to have Metcalf in the late rounds!

He's a rookie #2 WR in a run-first offense. Plenty of reason to be excited about him long term but there's no path to consistent fantasy value this season. 

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7 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

He's a rookie #2 WR in a run-first offense. Plenty of reason to be excited about him long term but there's no path to consistent fantasy value this season. 

 

Lockett 200 targets 

 

you heard it here first 

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On 9/3/2019 at 2:48 PM, bhawks489 said:

I might in one league. Super heavy on RBs (most of my bench) but there are quite a few WRs on the wire. 

I am in the same boat went heavy RB and with Diggs questionable I only have Metcalf or TQuan Smith to plug in for Diggs, leaning Metcalf.

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Lockett 200 targets 


Wilson throws 450 times this year? (427 last year)

Locket 110 (Takes the Baldwin role)
RBs get 80 (82 last year)
TE get 75 (73 last year)
'Field' gets 100 (98 combined to all WR not named Baldwin/Lockett last year)

That leaves 85 total targets for Metcalf.  Even at a 60% catch rate (I'm being very generous, this is Hilton, Tyreek, Evans, AB, and OBJ range last year) you're looking at 51 receptions.  51 receptions at the same yards per reception as Lockett in this same role his first 2 seasons (13.8) is 703 yards.
85/50/700 would be 120 PPR fantasy points. That's WR60 by itself.
Now... add TDs as you please.  5 TDs brings him to 150 PPR points or WR44.
6 TDs, 156, WR38
8 TDs, 168, WR34
10 TDs, 180, WR30

 

That's a lot to ask for, for someone to be relevant in typical sized leagues.


To emphasize the generous catch rate, guys who fill similar roles:
D.Jax was at 55%
Zay Jones was at 55%
A.Calloway 54%
M.Goodwin 52%
C.Sutton 50%
John Brown 43%
John Ross 36%

Lockett wasn't fantasy relevant until Baldwin declined significantly.  I wouldn't hold my breath for Metcalf, but I understand the dart throw and wait and see approach.

 

* This is all just mathematical speculation for a little perspective.  Please don't take it too seriously or bother with semantics.  Maybe Carson gets hurt and Wilson throws 500 times, maybe he's the next Calvin Johnson and Lockett is the #2, maybe this, maybe that.  It's just a quick look at last year and what could maybe realistically happen.

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:


Wilson throws 450 times this year? (427 last year)

Locket 110 (Takes the Baldwin role)
RBs get 80 (82 last year)
TE get 75 (73 last year)
'Field' gets 100 (98 combined to all WR not named Baldwin/Lockett last year)

That leaves 85 total targets for Metcalf.  Even at a 60% catch rate (I'm being very generous, this is Hilton, Tyreek, Evans, AB, and OBJ range last year) you're looking at 51 receptions.  51 receptions at the same yards per reception as Lockett in this same role his first 2 seasons (13.8) is 703 yards.
85/50/700 would be 120 PPR fantasy points. That's WR60 by itself.
Now... add TDs as you please.  5 TDs brings him to 150 PPR points or WR44.
6 TDs, 156, WR38
8 TDs, 168, WR34
10 TDs, 180, WR30

 

That's a lot to ask for, for someone to be relevant in typical sized leagues.


To emphasize the generous catch rate, guys who fill similar roles:
D.Jax was at 55%
Zay Jones was at 55%
A.Calloway 54%
M.Goodwin 52%
C.Sutton 50%
John Brown 43%
John Ross 36%

Lockett wasn't fantasy relevant until Baldwin declined significantly.  I wouldn't hold my breath for Metcalf, but I understand the dart throw and wait and see approach.

 

* This is all just mathematical speculation for a little perspective.  Please don't take it too seriously or bother with semantics.  Maybe Carson gets hurt and Wilson throws 500 times, maybe he's the next Calvin Johnson and Lockett is the #2, maybe this, maybe that.  It's just a quick look at last year and what could maybe realistically happen.

 

This time of year you could just copy that disclaimer to every post haha.    

Agreed FFC.   He’s not a player you count on- but if anyone could make the most of limited chances-  DK might be that guy.   

 

 

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