Mr2Saint

David Montgomery 2019 Outlook

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Those were Howard's stats from last season and I feel like most people think of him as a bum RB.  I see no reason why Montgomery can't do better.  Howard was able to do that as a less talented back along with Cohen and Cunningham getting carries and receptions.

 

 

The concern is 1) Nagy likes to seriously mess with personnel and 2). It h Trubisky 

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On 8/28/2019 at 6:23 AM, gufomel said:

Ugh I’m getting pulled in.

I have these RBs in the same tier, and this is probably how I rank them now:

 

Fournette

Kerryon

Montgomery

Aaron Jones

Carson

Jacobs

Damien Williams

Devonta Freeman

 

My order is:

Damien Williams- explosive player in best offense

Fournette- healthy now and team is built around him

Carson- Go to runner in a run heavy offense.

Aaron Jones- good runner in a rebound worth offense. 

Montgomery- this thread

Edit: Kerryon- don't like the lions

Freeman- proven, good offense, plays in dome but bad line

Jacobs- workload

Edited by Mathew Berry
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38 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

 

My order is:

Damien Williams- explosive player in best offense

Fournette- healthy now and team is built around him

Carson- Go to runner in a run heavy offense.

Aaron Jones- good runner in a rebound worth offense. 

Montgomery- this thread

Edit: Kerryon- don't like the lions

Freeman- proven, good offense, plays in dome but bad line

Jacobs- workload

 

I like this order but would probably raise Jacobs ahead of Montgomery. I think pro-Montgomery people are hoping for Kareem Hunt 2.0 which would put him at the top of this list but I don't see it happening with Cohen involved. I truly believe Nagy wanted to give Howard 3-down duties so he didn't have to telegraph run/pass but Cohen is just too dynamic not to get on the field (and Howard was so very not dynamic). Montgomery should be a better receiver than Howard but he still can't compete with Cohen. I think Jacobs will actually get 3-down work pretty consistently and that's enough to move him ahead of Montgomery for me.

Edited by TedStriker

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39 minutes ago, TedStriker said:

 

I like this order but would probably raise Jacobs ahead of Montgomery. I think pro-Montgomery people are hoping for Kareem Hunt 2.0 which would put him at the top of this list but I don't see it happening with Cohen involved. I truly believe Nagy wanted to give Howard 3-down duties so he didn't have to telegraph run/pass but Cohen is just too dynamic not to get on the field (and Howard was so very not dynamic). Montgomery should be a better receiver than Howard but he still can't compete with Cohen. I think Jacobs will actually get 3-down work pretty consistently and that's enough to move him ahead of Montgomery for me.

 

Not saying Jalen Richard is on the level Cohen is but he put up 600 yds on 70 catches for the Raiders last year.  Tough to  rule him out of the picture even with Martin gone 

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19 minutes ago, phillyfan461 said:

 

Not saying Jalen Richard is on the level Cohen is but he put up 600 yds on 70 catches for the Raiders last year.  Tough to  rule him out of the picture even with Martin gone 

Fair enough. As a former Howard owner I've seen a lot of Cohen (and was impressed) but maybe I underestimate Richard. So, maybe Montgomery and Richard will on more equal footing than I am expecting. Either way, a wide range of outcomes possible for the two of them but if the working assumption is that Richard gets more touches then that is enough to give him the edge over Montgomery for me.

Edited by TedStriker

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have him in one league and i don't in a money league so i'm torn. think he can be special. kareem hunt status.

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Okay, serious question. Why are we writing off Davis from taking touches and possible short yardage work. Davis is 5'09, 218. What's more alarming is the fact that he's been sitting when the starters have been sitting. Now I'm not saying he's going to have a massive role, but we all know how Nagy likes to spread the ball around. I think people are just assuming Montgomery is going to come in and be a 15+ touch guy and the "The Guy." 

I think that's very hasty, especially with Cohen around and Gabriel being given a touch or two. And don't forget Patterson is basically a RB. I think expectations need to be a little tempered.

-(Bears fan and the guy who saw Cohen coming before he broke out)

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2 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Okay, serious question. Why are we writing off Davis from taking touches and possible short yardage work. Davis is 5'09, 218. What's more alarming is the fact that he's been sitting when the starters have been sitting. Now I'm not saying he's going to have a massive role, but we all know how Nagy likes to spread the ball around. I think people are just assuming Montgomery is going to come in and be a 15+ touch guy and the "The Guy." 

I think that's very hasty, especially with Cohen around and Gabriel being given a touch or two. And don't forget Patterson is basically a RB. I think expectations need to be a little tempered.

-(Bears fan and the guy who saw Cohen coming before he broke out)

 

None of the names mentioned are elite, outside of possibly Cohen though I'd argue he's not even there yet. The Montgomery money is on the fact he breaks out in a big way basically immediately. If that happens, journeyman Mike Davis won't even have a chance to matter.

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28 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Okay, serious question. Why are we writing off Davis from taking touches and possible short yardage work. Davis is 5'09, 218. What's more alarming is the fact that he's been sitting when the starters have been sitting. Now I'm not saying he's going to have a massive role, but we all know how Nagy likes to spread the ball around. I think people are just assuming Montgomery is going to come in and be a 15+ touch guy and the "The Guy." 

I think that's very hasty, especially with Cohen around and Gabriel being given a touch or two. And don't forget Patterson is basically a RB. I think expectations need to be a little tempered.

-(Bears fan and the guy who saw Cohen coming before he broke out)

 

Because as mentioned in this thread several times now, Davis is on his 3rd team in 5 years & was signed for cheap before they were able to draft Montgomery and 28% of his yards and 3/4 TD came in his 2 games against the Cardinals (3-13) last year.

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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35 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Okay, serious question. Why are we writing off Davis from taking touches and possible short yardage work. Davis is 5'09, 218. What's more alarming is the fact that he's been sitting when the starters have been sitting. Now I'm not saying he's going to have a massive role, but we all know how Nagy likes to spread the ball around. I think people are just assuming Montgomery is going to come in and be a 15+ touch guy and the "The Guy." 

I think that's very hasty, especially with Cohen around and Gabriel being given a touch or two. And don't forget Patterson is basically a RB. I think expectations need to be a little tempered.

-(Bears fan and the guy who saw Cohen coming before he broke out)

Look, I even kind of like Davis, and he's been productive. But if you watch tape of Montgomery, then watch tape of Davis, you'll see why Montgomery owners aren't worried about him at all.

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52 minutes ago, the_dying_dream said:

Okay, serious question. Why are we writing off Davis from taking touches and possible short yardage work. Davis is 5'09, 218. What's more alarming is the fact that he's been sitting when the starters have been sitting. Now I'm not saying he's going to have a massive role, but we all know how Nagy likes to spread the ball around. I think people are just assuming Montgomery is going to come in and be a 15+ touch guy and the "The Guy." 

I think that's very hasty, especially with Cohen around and Gabriel being given a touch or two. And don't forget Patterson is basically a RB. I think expectations need to be a little tempered.

-(Bears fan and the guy who saw Cohen coming before he broke out)

 

Going by last year's numbers and not including Trubisky's rushing attempts we're looking at 400 rushing attempts as a team.  We only have one year with Nagy as the head coach so that's what we'll work with for now.  Howard had 250 attempts last year which left 150 for everyone else on the team.  I see no reason why Montgomery can't get close to that 250 attempt number.  He's also a good receiving back so he should see around 30 receptions as well.  

If we just stick with 400 carries like last year I could see it breaking down like this. 

Montgomery 240 carries

Cohen 80 carries

Davis 60 carries

Patterson 15 carries

Gabriel 5 carries

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1 minute ago, ravensfanatic0 said:

Would you take David Montgomery over a stud wr2 like Diggs?

In a heartbeat

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2 minutes ago, ravensfanatic0 said:

Would you take David Montgomery over a stud wr2 like Diggs?


Yes, I would.

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Obvious risk here since hes a rookie and unproven... but man this could be a home run pick if he lives up to the potential

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8 minutes ago, ravensfanatic0 said:

Would you take David Montgomery over a stud wr2 like Diggs?

 

For sure. The big issue I've run into with Montgomery is he's right in the Fournette, Chris Carson, Sony Michel, and Josh Jacobs wheelhouse usually. I like basically all those RBs this year. Guess it depends where you draft thought. Fournette's higher on ESPN and CBS, while Monty has a pretty hefty x-rank on Yahoo.

Edited by LongBalls

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1 minute ago, LongBalls said:

 

For sure. The big issue I've run into with Montgomery is he's right in the Fournette, Chris Carson, Sony Michel, and Josh Jacobs wheelhouse usually. I like basically all those RBs this year.


Going Hill + Gurley + Montgomery + Michel is a great start... and something I love doing.

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Just now, ponza88 said:


Going Hill + Gurley + Montgomery + Michel is a great start... and something I love doing.

 

I also love getting Montgomery and one of Michel/Carson/Jacobs on the swing there in the 3rd/4th assuming you start the draft in the 10-12 spot.

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9 minutes ago, ravensfanatic0 said:

Would you take David Montgomery over a stud wr2 like Diggs?

Tough call. All things being equal (you don't have a pressing need at RB or WR), I'd rather have Diggs. Just too much uncertainty with Montgomery for me to pass up a proven commodity. Just hard to press the button on a rookie RB (unless a 1st rounder like Zeke or Saquon). Could be Kareem Hunt or Royce Freeman. Diggs is guaranteed to produce.

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Well, I got him in my 1 rookie keeper league last night. Not gonna lie, I had to reach a little. But, I don't care. I have a feeling 'bout him. Call it my gut or a hunch or whatever. All I know is I think he's in for a BIG season if Nagy uses him the way I think he will. Only time will tell of course, but I am excited. And hey, isn't that a big part of why we play this game?!

Go D-Mo!

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2 hours ago, TedStriker said:

Tough call. All things being equal (you don't have a pressing need at RB or WR), I'd rather have Diggs. Just too much uncertainty with Montgomery for me to pass up a proven commodity. Just hard to press the button on a rookie RB (unless a 1st rounder like Zeke or Saquon). Could be Kareem Hunt or Royce Freeman. Diggs is guaranteed to produce.

Seeing as Nagy was the OC for Kareem Hunt and Philip Lindsay was turning crazy heads in preseason... And Bears took Montgomery with one of their only draft picks higher than Hunt and traded up to get him... And Montgomery being talked up all season and the other backs being talked down...

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Interesting to see that Yahoos only giving Montgomery a projection of 11 Points but Cohens getting projections of 15-16 points per week. 

 

yahoo needs to adjust that. Just saying.

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16 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Interesting to see that Yahoos only giving Montgomery a projection of 11 Points but Cohens getting projections of 15-16 points per week. 

 

yahoo needs to adjust that. Just saying.

Everything Yahoo shows is worthless. Just let the points play out

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43 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Interesting to see that Yahoos only giving Montgomery a projection of 11 Points but Cohens getting projections of 15-16 points per week. 

 

yahoo needs to adjust that. Just saying.

agreed... but projections will be even more waaay off until week 2.

27 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Everything Yahoo shows is worthless. Just let the points play out

 

i don't mind yahoo's projections, and actually prefer them to espn, CBS, etc.

but none of the point projections for WEEK 1 are ever close to correct --- greatest week in fantasy because the entire roster relies more on intuition and research than "expert" opinion and platform rankins.

looking forward to some great surprises.

regarding DMo (still looking for a nickname?), i keep hearing about green bay's defense but i don't see it. i like the rookies rashan and savage, and jaire alexander of course, but that’s defense against trubisky and his passing. martinez is great, but oren burks is injured and will not play in chicago. kenny clarke is a beast, but the bears can play keep-away from him. i’m thinking the bears defense can at least keep aaron rodgers from making this a blowout, and the D can possible enable the bears to play ball-control. seems to me that david montgomery is due for 75 yards and a TD as a floor, which would make the projection more in the 15-16 range like cohen's.

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15 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

agreed... but projections will be even more waaay off until week 2.

 

i don't mind yahoo's projections, and actually prefer them to espn, CBS, etc.

but none of the point projections for WEEK 1 are ever close to correct --- greatest week in fantasy because the entire roster relies more on intuition and research than "expert" opinion and platform rankins.

looking forward to some great surprises.

regarding DMo (still looking for a nickname?), i keep hearing about green bay's defense but i don't see it. i like the rookies rashan and savage, and jaire alexander of course, but that’s defense against trubisky and his passing. martinez is great, but oren burks is injured and will not play in chicago. kenny clarke is a beast, but the bears can play keep-away from him. i’m thinking the bears defense can at least keep aaron rodgers from making this a blowout, and the D can possible enable the bears to play ball-control. seems to me that david montgomery is due for 75 yards and a TD as a floor, which would make the projection more in the 15-16 range like cohen's.

 

I should have rephrased, all projections on every fantasy site are completely worthless, Yahoo is about as good as projections against intuition as their search feature is against Google.

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