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Miles Sanders 2019 Outlook

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Coach Doug Pederson told reporters Wednesday that the Eagles will continue to utilize a committee system at running back.

Specifically, Pederson stated, "For us here, it's worked. And we'll continue to (use a committee)." The only back to play even 40% of the offense's snaps in a season under Pederson during his time in Philadelphia was Darren Sproles back in 2016. Second-round pick Miles Sanders is the team's most-complete back in years and is expected to get the bulk of touches for the Eagles' Week 1 matchup against the Redskins, but Jordan Howard should also be involved on early downs, and Darren Sproles in the pass game.

 

So how long do we think this realistically lasts before Sanders takes over?

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2 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Owning Miles Sanders is going to be very frustrating this year, IMO.  I think he's going to run circles around the other backs and we'll all be clamoring for him to get a full load, but the staff won't do it.

Unless you spent a second rounder on him, a good back in a committee is still a good value IMO. Maybe he won't totally explode the way people hope but I don't see a way he doesn't outproduce draft position (and I took him 50 overall)

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Just now, pushaZ said:

Unless you spent a second rounder on him, a good back in a committee is still a good value IMO. Maybe he won't totally explode the way people hope but I don't see a way he doesn't outproduce draft position (and I took him 50 overall)

 

Fair enough.  He can still be a good flex.  What will be frustrating is watching a potential RB1 be wasted in a committee because the coach wants to get 3 yards out of Jordan Howard.

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15 minutes ago, urbank07 said:

 

So how long do we think this realistically lasts before Sanders takes over?

Week 3

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27 minutes ago, urbank07 said:

 

So how long do we think this realistically lasts before Sanders takes over?

 

I don't think he ever will, if you mean he's going to be at like 60-70% snap count.

We've seen this movie before guys.  2017, Jay Ajayi, the bellcow for Miami, gets acquired by the Eagles.  Everyone's saying to themselves "oh the Eagles now have a 'complete' back and he'll get 20+ touches".  Never happened.

Eagles had Legarrette Blount, Smallwood, and Clement and all of them played.  Pederson never waivered on his RBBC even after getting Ajayi.  As an Ajayi owner, I was banging my head because Ajayi was clearly the best guy there.  Now I know Ajayi is no stud RB, but he was better than Blount, by a lot.

This year, I think the 2019 version will be Sanders = Ajayi and Howard = Blount.  Sanders will get like 10-15 carries per game and minimal receiving work.  Howard will get 5-10 carries and the goal line.  Smallwood and Clement on 3rd down and catch up mode.

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8 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I don't think he ever will, if you mean he's going to be at like 60-70% snap count.

We've seen this movie before guys.  2017, Jay Ajayi, the bellcow for Miami, gets acquired by the Eagles.  Everyone's saying to themselves "oh the Eagles now have a 'complete' back and he'll get 20+ touches".  Never happened.

Eagles had Legarrette Blount, Smallwood, and Clement and all of them played.  Pederson never waivered on his RBBC even after getting Ajayi.  As an Ajayi owner, I was banging my head because Ajayi was clearly the best guy there.  Now I know Ajayi is no stud RB, but he was better than Blount, by a lot.

This year, I think the 2019 version will be Sanders = Ajayi and Howard = Blount.  Sanders will get like 10-15 carries per game and minimal receiving work.  Howard will get 5-10 carries and the goal line.  Smallwood and Clement on 3rd down and catch up mode.

Assuming u mean sproles...Smallwood in Washington 

 

But dead on analysis.   The eagles won a SB and were an Alshon ball through the hands away from the NFC championship game last season.   Pederson has a system and it’s been tremendously successful.   

 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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Pederson's been coaching PHI since 2016. Prior to Sanders Pederson hadn't spent higher than a 4th rnd pick on a RB. If there was a time to break the committee I'd think he'd want to do it with "his guy".  I think it starts out..

Howard 45% 

Sanders 40%

Sproles/Clement 15%

But as long as Sanders produces I think he'll get a larger and larger share as the season goes on. I'll guess he's getting 65-75% by midyear.

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46 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I don't think he ever will, if you mean he's going to be at like 60-70% snap count.

We've seen this movie before guys.  2017, Jay Ajayi, the bellcow for Miami, gets acquired by the Eagles.  Everyone's saying to themselves "oh the Eagles now have a 'complete' back and he'll get 20+ touches".  Never happened.

Eagles had Legarrette Blount, Smallwood, and Clement and all of them played.  Pederson never waivered on his RBBC even after getting Ajayi.  As an Ajayi owner, I was banging my head because Ajayi was clearly the best guy there.  Now I know Ajayi is no stud RB, but he was better than Blount, by a lot.

This year, I think the 2019 version will be Sanders = Ajayi and Howard = Blount.  Sanders will get like 10-15 carries per game and minimal receiving work.  Howard will get 5-10 carries and the goal line.  Smallwood and Clement on 3rd down and catch up mode.



Just for edification...

Jay Ajayi played 14 games for the Eagles after being traded mid-season 2017.
First 3 games he saw less than 30% of the snaps, and got 8, 8, and 6 touches in those games. 
His 4th game he saw 40% of snaps, 12 touches.
For the rest of the season, he sat right around 50% of snaps and garnered between 14-17 touches per game.
Can't find snap count data for the playoffs, but in the division and conference finals he saw 18 and 21 touches respectively (dropped down to 9 in the Super Bowl).

He opened the 2018 season before his injury seeing once again right around 50% of the snaps and settled in right around 15-18 touches per game once again before the injury bug caught up with him again. 


So even if we're going to go on the assumption that Sanders would be filling an Ajayi-type role and will almost never top 50% of the snaps, the statistics show that in the Eagles offense, even a 50% share should net you around 12-15 carries a game with a couple of targets as well. Not bellcow territory, which no one should have expected anyway, but a solid 50% snap share on a powerful offense with a good line should return you at the very least every-week Flex status. 

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56 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Pederson's been coaching PHI since 2016. Prior to Sanders Pederson hadn't spent higher than a 4th rnd pick on a RB. If there was a time to break the committee I'd think he'd want to do it with "his guy".  I think it starts out..

Howard 45% 

Sanders 40%

Sproles/Clement 15%

But as long as Sanders produces I think he'll get a larger and larger share as the season goes on. I'll guess he's getting 65-75% by midyear.

This.  And 65% would still technically put him in a committee, a label from coach speak that always carries less FF weight than simply looking at snap percentages and touches. 

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4 minutes ago, dlionsfan901 said:

Spent a 7th rounder in him.  Any breakout potential at some point here or is this a stash and wait until or if someone gets hurt?

 

he's the vastly superior talent in that fusterckuck stable, behind perhaps the best run blocking o-line in the gig, with great talent surroundung him at the other skill positions ... he can be low end rb1/high end rb2/AAAAA+ flex simply by attrition.

talent, man ... it will rise. 

 

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Just now, DekuTree said:

He opened the 2018 season before his injury seeing once again right around 50% of the snaps and settled in right around 15-18 touches per game once again before the injury bug caught up with him again. 

 

Ajayi played four games in 2018.  His touches - 15 / 8 / 18 / 9.  Not sure where you're getting 15-18 touches per game.

Having said that, I think we generally agree.  Most likely scenario is Sanders getting 12-15 touches per game, with most of those being carries and not receptions as they have receiving backs.  Assuming he's moderately efficient (say 4.3 ypc), you're looking at something like 60-80 yards per game with a TD maybe every 3rd or 4th game, since I believe Howard is the goal line back.  He'll have to score on longer runs.

Flex at best.

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1 hour ago, fletch44 said:

Pederson's been coaching PHI since 2016. Prior to Sanders Pederson hadn't spent higher than a 4th rnd pick on a RB. If there was a time to break the committee I'd think he'd want to do it with "his guy".  I think it starts out..

Howard 45% 

Sanders 40%

Sproles/Clement 15%

But as long as Sanders produces I think he'll get a larger and larger share as the season goes on. I'll guess he's getting 65-75% by midyear.

What happens if Howard produces?

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Just now, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Ajayi played four games in 2018.  His touches - 15 / 8 / 18 / 9.  Not sure where you're getting 15-18 touches per game.

Having said that, I think we generally agree.  Most likely scenario is Sanders getting 12-15 touches per game, with most of those being carries and not receptions as they have receiving backs.  Assuming he's moderately efficient (say 4.3 ypc), you're looking at something like 60-80 yards per game with a TD maybe every 3rd or 4th game, since I believe Howard is the goal line back.  He'll have to score on longer runs.

Flex at best.


Because I gave him the benefit of a doubt that he would have maintained the average that he was being given if not for injury - Week 2 he was injured mid-game and was questionable to return, Week 4 he was injured for the rest of the season. 

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If this guy shows some really good 3 down skill set. I can see him taking the over the majority of the backfield and providing solid rb2 with rb1 upside mid season. Def a guy to look out for. Eagles obviously thought very highly of him using a 2nd round pick. 

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11 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

What happens if Howard produces?

 

What happens if Mike Davis produces and David Montgomery struggles? I don't think too many RBs have absolute job security if different RB on the depth chart plays better (or equal to them). 

The point is that some here are speculating that Sanders is way more talented than Howard therefore they can see a path to the lead back role. Nick Chubb was a back up to Carlos Hyde last year for the early part of the year. 

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6 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

If this guy shows some really good 3 down skill set. I can see him taking the over the majority of the backfield and providing solid rb2 with rb1 upside mid season. Def a guy to look out for. Eagles obviously thought very highly of him using a 2nd round pick. 

I see no scenerio where that team produces an RB1.  They simply spread the ball too much.  What you hope from Sanders is to draft him as your RB3 and have him overproduce.  

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1 minute ago, Chardo said:

I see no scenerio where that team produces an RB1.  They simply spread the ball too much.  What you hope from Sanders is to draft him as your RB3 and have him overproduce.  

 

I've said this before in this thread. Pederson has spread the ball around because he has had crap RBs. It's not like he has had Leveon Bell, Zeke, Barkley, CMC and chosen to have them split carries with Wendell Smallwood. 

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3 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

I've said this before in this thread. Pederson has spread the ball around because he has had crap RBs. It's not like he has had Leveon Bell, Zeke, Barkley, CMC and chosen to have them split carries with Wendell Smallwood. 

great point. i might be a bit biased as an owner, but great point.

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7 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

I've said this before in this thread. Pederson has spread the ball around because he has had crap RBs. It's not like he has had Leveon Bell, Zeke, Barkley, CMC and chosen to have them split carries with Wendell Smallwood. 

This.

If Sanders clearly gives them a better shot to win games, then Pederson is going to want to give him more touches.   However, if Howard can prove to be good enough so that Pederson's RBBC results in wins, then it's going to be frustrating.

Although I was thinking the same thing about the Green Bay situation last year.

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Howard’s going to be plenty productive behind this line.   Nice 1-2 punch.   That’s going to have to be enough for you sanders guys this season.   

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Howard’s going to be plenty productive behind this line.   Nice 1-2 punch.   That’s going to have to be enough for you sanders guys this season.   

 

Not good enough. 

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Just now, K197040 said:

 

Not good enough. 

Then I hope you got a nice price 🤷‍♂️ 

 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

Then I hope you got a nice price 🤷‍♂️ 

 

Remains to be seen.

Seriously though, I would expect for Sanders to be a little more than an equal part of a one two punch.

Putting Howard out there pretty much signals run.  Sanders not so much.

Although I don't know enough about their scheme to know if that even matters to Pederson.

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