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Miles Sanders 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Bears and eagles use committees.  I don’t think people are gonna like either.

Most teams do... that's why they're being drafted in the 3rd/4th round and not the 1st. 

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On 8/16/2019 at 6:19 PM, devaster said:

Jordan Howard definitely isn't going anywhere this season. He will remain heavily involved.

 

I wouldn't be too sure about that.  I posted this in the Montgomery thread, but Howard's personal metrics were horrendous last year.  Elusiveness, tacklebreaking, etc.  Just plain awful.  He was like 46th out of 47 RB's last year with over 100 carries.  If he continues to play like this on the Eagles (and Sanders plays well), he's not going to play much.

Howard is a "big" name due to his play as a rookie and sophomore, but he fell off a cliff somehow.  Coaches don't care about what you did in the past.  If you are not helping the OL by creating yards that are not there, you're not gonna play.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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27 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I wouldn't be too sure about that.  I posted this in the Montgomery thread, but Howard's personal metrics were horrendous last year.  Elusiveness, tacklebreaking, etc.  Just plain awful.  He was like 46th out of 47 RB's last year with over 100 carries.  If he continues to play like this on the Eagles (and Sanders plays well), he's not going to play much.

Howard is a "big" name due to his play as a rookie and sophomore, but he fell off a cliff somehow.  Coaches don't care about what you did in the past.  If you are not helping the OL by creating yards that are not there, you're not gonna play.

 

I agree but is the fact that Howard is a plodder enough reason to invest in Sanders? Howard will probably still get touches, including goaline touches I’d imagine. 

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10 minutes ago, jsch08 said:

 

I agree but is the fact that Howard is a plodder enough reason to invest in Sanders? Howard will probably still get touches, including goaline touches I’d imagine. 

 

That's a judgment call.  All I'm saying is that it's easy to assume that Howard will have a big role based on the reputation he gained in his first couple years, but his numbers from last year indicated that he's no longer that dominant RB.

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47 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

That's a judgment call.  All I'm saying is that it's easy to assume that Howard will have a big role based on the reputation he gained in his first couple years, but his numbers from last year indicated that he's no longer that dominant RB.

This is nonsense. Howard did fine in the 2nd half of last season after the coaching staff made changes to the running scheme to match Howard's strengths better. He had nearly half of his season rushing total in the last 5 games of the season.

Pederson has been at it for a few years and has employed similar RB skill sets to Howard in his scheme over the last few years. Howard will have a role and will be good in it. Eagles also boast a much better OL with a much better QB and receiving weapons.

I like Sanders a lot, but view him as more of a 2020 fantasy pick. Good dynasty pickup if you can stash him though.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

This is nonsense. Howard did fine in the 2nd half of last season after the coaching staff made changes to the running scheme to match Howard's strengths better. He had nearly half of his season rushing total in the last 5 games of the season.

Pederson has been at it for a few years and has employed similar RB skill sets to Howard in his scheme over the last few years. Howard will have a role and will be good in it. Eagles also boast a much better OL with a much better QB and receiving weapons.

I like Sanders a lot, but view him as more of a 2020 fantasy pick. Good dynasty pickup if you can stash him though.

 

The metrics I referred to have nothing to do with offensive scheme and everything to do with how Howard played on an individual level.  Elusiveness and tackle breaking are attributable only to him, not his offense.  And he was bad last year.  Sure they may have put him in better situations in the second half of the year, but it doesn't change the fact that he didn't make anything happen on his own.

It's possible that the Eagles can also get Howard in an offense that is more of a fit for him, but if he's not avoiding tacklers or breaking tackles, he's not going to play much.  No coach wants to run a guy who only gets what's blocked.  Why do you think Chicago let him go so easily and moved up in the draft to get his replacement (who, by the way, was the best tackle breaking RB for the last 2 years in college football?)

Edited by Brownsfan74
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friendly reminder that sproles is still on the roster.. aka doug pedersen's favorite player 

oh yeah.. and Smallwood, Clement, and Adams.

Howard will certainly have a big role on this team, his demise is greatly exaggerated 

this will be very frustrating.. sigh. 

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I believe Smiles MANders will put up at least RB2 numbers with the chance to be top 12 by year end.

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32 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I believe Smiles MANders will put up at least RB2 numbers with the chance to be top 12 by year end.


Even with like 8 other RB's behind him?

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1 hour ago, oresteszero said:


Even with like 8 other RB's behind him?

 

Yes. 

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On 8/18/2019 at 2:20 PM, Brownsfan74 said:

Why do you think Chicago let him go so easily and moved up in the draft to get his replacement (who, by the way, was the best tackle breaking RB for the last 2 years in college football?)

Maybe he doesn't fit their scheme.  Conversely why did the Eagles snap him up?

"Metrics" only tell you so much. I think Sanders is definitely the man long term, but whether that occurs this year (and if so when) is debatable and I seriously doubt he puts up numbers worth drafting and playing much, or you won't know when, one day Howard will be the guy, one day Sanders, often a split. Howard has value and Philly didn't pay this guy to sit on the bench. Philly is the ultimate spread it around team this year. No Eagle will be on my team except as a later-round flyer. 

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30 minutes ago, bomont said:

Maybe he doesn't fit their scheme.  Conversely why did the Eagles snap him up?

"Metrics" only tell you so much. I think Sanders is definitely the man long term, but whether that occurs this year (and if so when) is debatable and I seriously doubt he puts up numbers worth drafting and playing much, or you won't know when, one day Howard will be the guy, one day Sanders, often a split. Howard has value and Philly didn't pay this guy to sit on the bench. Philly is the ultimate spread it around team this year. No Eagle will be on my team except as a later-round flyer. 

 

They gave up a 6th round pick for Howard.  That should be an indication of how good the Eagles think he is.  I'm not saying that Howard is total trash.  I do think his performance last year puts him at a committee back level, instead of a workhorse.  That's basically what they paid for.  Scheme is probably a part of it and certainly a good point.  I just think the Bears also realize that he's not that good anymore, too.

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Sanders has undoubtedly been the most hyped RB this preseason. I don't mean that in a bad way. He continues to get rave reviews. I "would" probably put him in a tier right after Mark Ingram which would be late 4th round/early 5th round. 

However, every time I get excited, I get these not so assuring quotes from HC and coaching staff:

 

"I think he’s does a great job with us so far,” Pederson continued. “The biggest concern coming into camp was obviously the health issue with coming out of the spring being injured a little bit. But I think he’s checked that box. Obviously, he’ll have a role for us. It’s good to have those two guys back there who are different runners but at the same time give us that running game that was missed a year ago."

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/making-case-eagles-play-miles-sanders-day-1

I definitely don't like the sound of that. The way that I see it, whoever drops in that 8-10 round range out of him and Howard, I'll pounce on. Again, I think Sanders has a huge ceiling, but if its a complete timeshare, I rather just be safe and go with value or just avoid.

 

 

Edited by nonstopfan

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426 touches for RBs in Philly last year. 448 in 2017. 461 in 2016.

 

Here are the breakdowns of carries/receptions for top 3 Philly RBs those years:

 

2018 Adams 120/7, Smallwood 87/35, Clement 68/22, others 87.

2017 Blount 173/8, Clement 74/10, Ajayi 70/14, others 99.

2016 Matthews 155/13, Sproles 94/52, Smallwood 77/6, others 64.

 

A good projection this year based on everything we know would be Sanders 140-160 touches, Howard 140-160 touches, 3rd RB(Sproles/Smallwood/Clement/or Adams) 70-80 touches, others 70-80 touches. 

 

If we wanted to assume Sanders to get 200+ touches, then we’d have to assume roughly that Howard would get 120+-, 3rd RB to get 60+-, and all of the other RBs in the roster to combine for 60+-. I just can’t imagine Howard only having 120 touches on the season, much less the other RBs touching it at such a lower rate than normal. 

 

To imagine Sanders with 250+ touches seems ludicrous. He could earn the lion’s share of an RBBC after this year if the Eagles do not re-sign or replace Howard. But for now he is almost certainly capped with an upside of 200ish touches, unless Howard gets injured.

 

 

Edited by elroypedro
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8 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

They gave up a 6th round pick for Howard.  That should be an indication of how good the Eagles think he is.  I'm not saying that Howard is total trash.  I do think his performance last year puts him at a committee back level, instead of a workhorse.  That's basically what they paid for.  Scheme is probably a part of it and certainly a good point.  I just think the Bears also realize that he's not that good anymore, too.

 

Trading a 6th for Howard isnt an indication of how the Eagles think of him, its probably close to his value. Its not like any team is going to give up a 3rd for a non-star RB.

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12 hours ago, elroypedro said:

"A good projection this year based on everything we know would be Sanders 140-160 touches, Howard 140-160 touches, 3rd RB(Sproles/Smallwood/Clement/or Adams) 70-80 touches, others 70-80 touches. If we wanted to assume Sanders to get 200+ touches...  I just can’t imagine Howard only having 120 touches on the season, much less the other RBs touching it at such a lower rate than normal. To imagine Sanders with 250+ touches seems ludicrous. He could earn the lion’s share of an RBBC after this year if the Eagles do not re-sign or replace Howard."

 

Certainly plausible, but I consider Sanders & Howard an attempt to upgrade the starting position, not just the depth. There's Pederson's comment, noting what they DIDN'T HAVE at RB last year & seemingly, wanting to run it more. LaGarrette Blount, how would you describe his skill set? He had 173 carries the year before? If ball security, durability or if he simply isn't there yet in all three phases, then you're probably right. But if they have the player they hoped they were getting with the 53rd pick, I would expect more than just 10 carries a pop.    

Edited by markrc99
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5 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Trading a 6th for Howard isnt an indication of how the Eagles think of him, its probably close to his value. Its not like any team is going to give up a 3rd for a non-star RB.

Right, all you can take from the 6th rounder is how little the bears think of him and has no bearing on what the Eagles think. It’s not like the Eagles head to the negotiating table saying, “we love Howard, name your price”

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

Certainly plausible, but I consider Sanders & Howard an attempt to upgrade the starting position, not just the depth. There's Pederson's comment, noting what they DIDN'T HAVE at RB last year & seemingly, wanting to run it more.

 

I take it as, they want an identity for their run game, moving away from a 3/4-man RBBC. Drafting Sanders clinches that. I think Howard compliments Sanders, in that Sanders' production can flourish despite of Howard's involvement.

If Montgomery goes first in my dynasty league, I'm taking Sanders with my 2nd pick.

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41 minutes ago, nromn said:
6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Trading a 6th for Howard isnt an indication of how the Eagles think of him, its probably close to his value. Its not like any team is going to give up a 3rd for a non-star RB.

Right, all you can take from the 6th rounder is how little the bears think of him and has no bearing on what the Eagles think. It’s not like the Eagles head to the negotiating table saying, “we love Howard, name your price”

 

Fair enough, but it's also not like the Bears said "We think Howard is only worth a 6th round pick....you want him?"  If the Bears have any negotiating ability, they started from a position that Howard is a premier RB and they should get back that value.  The Eagles told them they wouldn't get any more than a 6th rounder for him.  So, it's an indication of what the Eagles thought of him too.

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18 minutes ago, dropshadows said:

I take it as, they want an identity for their run game, moving away from a 3/4-man RBBC. Drafting Sanders clinches that. I think Howard compliments Sanders, in that Sanders' production can flourish despite Howard's involvement. ...

 

Totally agree, but the question may be how seamless a transition? Prior to 2018, he only had 64 touches at the collegiate level & is an early entry besides. I can see Howard getting the early call but do agree, when the game is still very much in the balance, Sanders is the RB best equipped to keep the defense honest. 

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There's no doubt in my mind that Sanders will get his this year, but the extent of his role is still cloudy. Best way to handle him is to take him as a high-upside bench stash and RB3 and then wait for him to breakout by midseason. He might end up being a viable rookie starter, but you don't want to count on it. 

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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9 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

There's no doubt in my mind that Sanders will get his this year, but the extent of his role is still cloudy. Best way to handle him is to take him as a high-upside bench stash and RB3 and then wait for him to breakout by midseason. He might end up being a viable rookie starter, but you don't want to count on it. 

 

I picked up Sanders in the later rounds, and he's definitely a stash for at least a few weeks. I do agree for the time being he may be a RB3 or even a low-end RB2. There's just too many hands in the cookie jar in Philadelphia right now. 

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16 hours ago, elroypedro said:

426 touches for RBs in Philly last year. 448 in 2017. 461 in 2016.

 

Here are the breakdowns of carries/receptions for top 3 Philly RBs those years:

 

2018 Adams 120/7, Smallwood 87/35, Clement 68/22, others 87.

2017 Blount 173/8, Clement 74/10, Ajayi 70/14, others 99.

2016 Matthews 155/13, Sproles 94/52, Smallwood 77/6, others 64.

 

A good projection this year based on everything we know would be Sanders 140-160 touches, Howard 140-160 touches, 3rd RB(Sproles/Smallwood/Clement/or Adams) 70-80 touches, others 70-80 touches. 

 

If we wanted to assume Sanders to get 200+ touches, then we’d have to assume roughly that Howard would get 120+-, 3rd RB to get 60+-, and all of the other RBs in the roster to combine for 60+-. I just can’t imagine Howard only having 120 touches on the season, much less the other RBs touching it at such a lower rate than normal. 

 

To imagine Sanders with 250+ touches seems ludicrous. He could earn the lion’s share of an RBBC after this year if the Eagles do not re-sign or replace Howard. But for now he is almost certainly capped with an upside of 200ish touches, unless Howard gets injured.

 

 

 

I've said this before, but this is a really simplistic analysis of the situation and I REALLY hope the owners in my leagues feel the same way. 

If the Eagles drafted Saquon Barkley would you say he wouldn't get 250 touches because Doug Pederson didn't give JAG RBs like Adams or Smallwood 250 carries?
Pederson was the OC in KC when Jamal Charles had nearly 2k yards of total offense. Then Charles went south and he was rotating in guys like West and Ware because they were Jags. 

Pederson has done the same in Philly because his RBs have been average.

Sanders could just be another OK RB that gets a job share, but don't assume that. Sanders was taken in the 2nd round. He has looked great in camp. There is reason to believe he is really good and you have no idea how Pederson would use a really good RB in Philly because they have never had a really good RB in philly under Pederson. 

 

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