Gile Pile

Bold Predictions for the 2019-2020 Season

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

It's those little nudges in stats that are often overlooked.  60-65% seems about right, if he's just dunking everything I could see something above 65% (unlikely).... I know its a stretch, hoping for a lot of RJ / Knox combined 35% FG missed shots (about 17-23 misses / game) and Mitch just crashing the boards with ferocious put back dunks.  I am obviously not worried about the other 5 PF/C on the Knicks nor his playing time.  I do need to stop drafting him in case he gets injured or has a bad year lol   

Talk about being injured...his knee.  Should be a minor issue.  I'd still take him top 50 like I did in one of the mocks, but I'm really not buying him as a third round pick or earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PG no rush to return from injury and misses 2 months, Kawhi misses 35 games total. Clippers gets season swept and falls in rd 2 vs the Lakers 4-2. AD leads the Lakers in scoring with 29ppg, Lebron wins MVP with 26-8-8 + 2nd seed in the west behind Houston. 

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/9/2019 at 11:00 AM, iowncrazyhair said:

PG no rush to return from injury and misses 2 months, Kawhi misses 35 games total. Clippers gets season swept and falls in rd 2 vs the Lakers 4-2. AD leads the Lakers in scoring with 29ppg, Lebron wins MVP with 26-8-8 + 2nd seed in the west behind Houston. 

I love it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Atl - Bruno Fernando will be a starter before the season's over.

Bkn - Claxton plays as much mpg as Kurics by years end.

Bos - Celtics will deal Brown and Robert Williams in a package.

Cha - Miles Bridges posts top 60 value in 9 cat, Dwayne Bacon leads team in scoring.

Chi - Gafford will start some games when WCjr or Lauri miss games and shows that he shouldve been drafted earlier.

Cle - They win more than 10 games.

Dal - i got nothing

Den - Malik Beasley is dealt.

Det - They manage to trade Blake.

Gsw - GRIII posts top 100 value.

Hou - Clarke turns out to be a nice player, pushing Tucker for the starting PF spot. Likewise, House gets a full season with the Rockets and becomes a 'baby Covington'.

Ind - Sabonis+Myles doesnt work. Goga starts next year.

LAC - They win it all.

LAL - They barely make the playoffs. 

Mia - Waiters demands trade when it turns out Herro outplays him.

Mil - Finals team vs Clippers. 

Min - KAT is #1 overall in fantasy. 

NOP - NAW becomes a starter after AS game. Ball is traded.

NYK - Payton starts over DSjr. 

OKC - Bazley plays over 14mpg.

Phi - Thybulle starts 40+ games.

Pho - Mikal Bridges is top 2 in steals per game.

Por - Simons is top 120 this year. Pdx trades CJ+ during the season for Blake Griffin.

Sac - Bagley posts top 30 value. Fox top 40.

SAS - Fantasy hell. Stars minutes are down, White and Forbes, too. Murray doesnt get enough mpg to truely bust out. Keldon gets decent mpg.

Tor - Davis wins starting SG role. 

Uta - O'Neale has mini breakout season.

Was - Troy Brown jr posts top 100 value.

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Perkinsfor3’s idea. Rankings 9-cat unless specified. Some of these are extremely unlikely. It is difficult to come up with something interesting for each team. I like Perkinsfor3's predictions for Atl, half of Cha,Cle,Lac,Mil,OKC and dislike those for Bkn,Bos,Den,Ind

 

Atl - Hunter leads rookies in 3PM

Bkn - LeVert is not top 100 first half of season, top 60 second half

Bos - Gordon Hayward is back to top 60

Cha - Bridges (not so bold) and Zeller (bolder) finish ahead of Rozier for totals

Chi - WCJ is their best-ranked player for fantasy

Cle - Nobody except Nance (steals) averages more than 4 assists, 1 steal or 1 block per game.

Dal - Do not have any top-25 players for fantasy

Den - #1 seed in west, nobody but Jokic, Millsap and Murray hits 26 mpg

Det - Tony Snell averages 10+ pts, 2+ threes

Gsw - Curry is #1 fantasy player per game

Hou - Capela averages under 10rpg

Ind - Aaron Holiday averages 12+ ppg until Oladipo comes back

Lac - Harrell wins the 6th man award instead of Williams

Lal - LeBron, AD, Cousins all play under 70 games

Mem - Bruno Caboclo is top-120

Mia - Derrick Jones Jr. joins the 1/1/1 club

Mil - Giannis still not top-3 player per game

Min - Wiggins averages 20+ ppg again, but shoots under 40%

Nop - Hayes starts the last 25 games

Nyk - Trade for John Wall, Barrett is not a top-3 rookie for fantasy, Knicks fans cheer for upcoming free agents on visiting teams

Okc - SGA, Paul, Gallinari, Adams (12+rpg) are all top-50 per-game

Orl - Vucevic is traded and Isaac starts averaging 7.5+ rpg, 1.2+ 3PM/Stl/Blk

Phi - Simmons banks in his first and only 3 for the year, fails to be top-40 per-game (again)

Pho - Ayton averages 20/10 with 2+ stocks

Por - Trade Nurkic

Sac - Hield is the top ranked player for Sacremento again

Sas - Poeltl is third ranked player on team behind Aldridge and Derozan

Tor - OG Anunoby finishes top-100 and is MIP runner-up to Adebayo

Uta - Conley, Mitchell, Gobert all are ranked worse than their ADP at the end of the year

Was - Beal puts up top-5 per-game value

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/12/2019 at 2:01 PM, perkinsfor3 said:

 

Tor - Davis wins starting SG role. 

 

I don't think that's bold. Shooting guard is wide open.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of the players drafted in the top 35, Collins will be the biggest bust in H2H.  Sure he has 24/12 potential and he did start averaging over 1 block per game.  I know Gallagher thinks his value will rise because he had a stretch where his steals were historically bad.  That was an outlier event that should improve but do you really want to draft someone who had historically poor steals?  But that’s not why I think he will miss so hard.  People use youth as a proxy for health but he will struggle to play 70 games.  His playoff schedule is trash.  I think he will play 2 games per week during the fantasy playoffs.  Poor schedule, poor health, no stocks.  It’s actually shocking to me that people are considering him in the second round.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Raptors' Siakam wins NBA's Most Improved Player award again.  Award is taken away from him and he is  included in All-NBA third team.

LBJ  does not make it to All-NBA team (and this is bold 😛)

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just some of my predictions going off ADPs and consensus 9-cat ranks:

  • * Wendell Carter Jr finishes higher than Thomas Bryant & Bagley
  • * Jayson Tatum & Tobias Harris are ~T35 9-cat value
  • * Gobert & Capela are the same or even better despite star guard additions
  • * Aldridge is better than Siakam & Mitch Rob 
  • * DSJ posts low mid-round value 
  • * Doncic is outside the T35 (being drafted in T15 a lot currently)  
Edited by s-kayos
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, s-kayos said:

Just some of my predictions going off ADPs and consensus 9-cat ranks:

  • * Wendell Carter Jr finishes higher than Thomas Bryant & Bagley
  • * Jayson Tatum & Tobias Harris are ~T35 9-cat value
  • * Gobert & Capela are the same or even better despite star guard additions
  • * Aldridge is better than Siakam & Mitch Rob 
  • * DSJ posts low mid-round value 
  • * Doncic is outside the T35 (being drafted in T15 a lot currently)  

I like these, except that I'm a little skeptical about Tatum and Tobias.

 

Tatum can take a step forward but so far he's been unwilling or unable to step into the second option offensively.  Though, he's still young, and has that potential.  Optimistically, I can see him being around 19/7/3 with 2 threes, 1.2 steals, .7 blocks on 45/85 splits and under 2 TO.  That would put him around 35, but I'm not certain he will hit those numbers, and I don't foresee him doing much better than that.

 

Tobias is interesting because he was 35th on the season, but only 79th in Philly.  Ofc Butler won't be there, so he will likely be closer to 35th than 79th.  He's also gotten much fewer rebounds when playing next to powerful big men.  I'd project a fairly similar line to be around 19/7/3 with two threes.  He's slightly more efficient than Tatum but his stocks are poor at around .5 steals/.5 blocks.  48/85 with 1.5 TO.  That's around 40-45th in per game.  However, he's durable, and I could foresee him finishing top 35 in totals (he finished 20th last year in totals).  

 

I could foresee Siakam, Tatum, and Tobias all finishing top 35 in totals as all three are fairly durable.

 

I think Aldridge will repeat another top 25-30 season so it depends on how you value Siakam and/or MitchRob.  I think it's likely LMA finishes ahead of them but the other two have more upside.  

 

I don't think Gobert will do any better, but the Jazz have the best playoff schedule at least in my leagues, so that turns a top 20 guy into top 15 easily.

 

I'd wager Capela gets maybe one or two fewer rebounds.  But he's improved every year he's been in the league, notably in blocks and FT%.  If you discount how poorly he played after returning from injury, Capela could average 2 blocks per game, and hit 66% FT.  If he goes something like 15/10 with two blocks and one steal on 66/66 shooting and 1.5 TO then that would put him top 20 value.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/21/2019 at 2:07 PM, Simsanityy179 said:

Kendall Jenner dates 2 more NBA players by playoffs

Well she’s dating oubre now, 1 more to go

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, MilesBridgesBetterThanZion said:

Miles Bridges finishes clear ahead of Zion in 8cat 9cat & point leeagues. 

I expected this kind of prediction from you long ago.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lonnie Walker has a "mini breakout" with 14 ppg, becomes spurs 6th man.

 

Alex "The Dunking Steve Blake" Caruso becomes Lakers starting PG by thanksgiving.

 

*not all that bold, i know, but I like bottom half of roster speculation :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Simmons manages to shoot .720 from the ft line.  Also nails a few 3s, all of which are missed alley-oops which accidentally go in.

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, MysticPeak said:

Rozier will average 35ppg on 20% FG. Mark my words.

So around 80 shots, huh?  Depending on how many free throws and threes he makes 😂

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, t0087669 said:

Rozier will produce a top 25 season 

 

3 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Rozier will average 35ppg on 20% FG. Mark my words.

 

Rozier might need to score 30+ppg to be top-25 if you are not punting fg% in standard 9cat or 8cat. Either that or something like 20/6/6 with 3+ threes and improved defensive stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tdye said:

 

 

Rozier might need to score 30+ppg to be top-25 if you are not punting fg% in standard 9cat or 8cat. Either that or something like 20/6/6 with 3+ threes and improved defensive stats.

There’s no realistic amount of scoring that could make a player who shoots sub 40% be a top 25 player without punting FG.  Even if they score 30, if it takes 30 shots to get there then there negative score in FG will be correspondingly worse.  Any advancement in scoring will be negated by harmful FG impact. 20/6/6 with 3 threes doesn’t even get there.  DeRozan was 20/6/6 on 48% and he was top 45.  Safe to say Terry is not going to be top 25.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Derozan doesn't shoot threes, so that isn't a perfect comparison, although the 20/6/6 is right on. I had some free time and looked up past years on Basketballmonster to see if there were comparisons to Rozier's possible numbers and whether sub 40% on high volume is possible for a top 25 player. Two recent ones were:

Kemba Walker, #19 in 18-19 with 25.6/4.4/5.6 on 43%fg,84%ft,3.2 threes, 1.2spg,0.4bpg,2.6 to

Paul George, #15 in 17-18 with 21.9/5.7/3.3 on 43%fg,82%ft, 3.1threes,2.0spg,0.5bpg,2.7tos (last year he was #3 shooting 43.8%)

Westbrook was #32 last year while killing fg%,ft% and to's

Others have shot even worse (usually lower volume), and in 2015-16 there were 5 guys in the top 25 shooting under 43%.

Rozier's per36 stats last year:

14.2/6.2/4.6 on 39%fg,78%ft,2.4threes,1.4spg,0.4bpg,1.4to

I thought Rozier top 25 was crazy, but this little research makes me convinced Rozier top 25 is possible in 9cat. But I agree that Stifletower is right that it is extremely unlikely, and that the benefits from increased scoring and threes would probably be lessened by the increased damage to fg%. I assume MysticPeak's post was a joke anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

There’s no realistic amount of scoring that could make a player who shoots sub 40% be a top 25 player without punting FG.  Even if they score 30, if it takes 30 shots to get there then there negative score in FG will be correspondingly worse.  Any advancement in scoring will be negated by harmful FG impact. 20/6/6 with 3 threes doesn’t even get there.  DeRozan was 20/6/6 on 48% and he was top 45.  Safe to say Terry is not going to be top 25.  

 

Ironically enough, I think he will have a very similar season to early-career Kemba Walker, e.g. 18, 4 and 6 with 40% fg. But with more rebounds. Top 60.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jay14bay said:

 

Ironically enough, I think he will have a very similar season to early-career Kemba Walker, e.g. 18, 4 and 6 with 40% fg. But with more rebounds. Top 60.

I ran the numbers earlier and came up with 20/5/4 on 2.7 threes, 4/5 from the line, 6.7 of 17 with 1.5 steals and 2.5 TO.  This is based simply on his numbers when he’s been the primary ballhandler and extrapolating minutes/usage.  Those counting stats are legit but 7 of 17 is going to plummet your FG so hard.  Think a worse Zach LaVine. Top 60 is possible and he will be useful if punting FG.  Actually if you’re punting FG he could be better than LaVine because his threes and steals bail him.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I ran the numbers earlier and came up with 20/5/4 on 2.7 threes, 4/5 from the line, 6.7 of 17 with 1.5 steals and 2.5 TO.  This is based simply on his numbers when he’s been the primary ballhandler and extrapolating minutes/usage.  Those counting stats are legit but 7 of 17 is going to plummet your FG so hard.  Think a worse Zach LaVine. Top 60 is possible and he will be useful if punting FG.  Actually if you’re punting FG he could be better than LaVine because his threes and steals bail him.  

 

But do you think he is actually good enough to keep those rates while receiving more defensive attention, for the full 36 minutes? Personally I don't think he is a great player and I see him struggling this season.  Could be wrong though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

But do you think he is actually good enough to keep those rates while receiving more defensive attention, for the full 36 minutes? Personally I don't think he is a great player and I see him struggling this season.  Could be wrong though.

I think he’s a mediocre player who can’t shoot. I wouldn’t draft him at his ADP.  But his minutes and usage are uncapped.  Do you remember Tony Wroten?  He’s Wroten 2014-2015 but a better three point shooter. 

Edited by StifleTower2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...