MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, street sharks said:

0/5 but 0 strikeouts. baseball gods really out here blessing him with regression right now

Where'd you find those stats?😲

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’ll tell you this I’ve been playing this game since 2001.  You can get as cute as you want, at the end of the day it’s your own teams.  But you try to play matchups and what not you’re likely going to end up with bench stats and drive yourself crazy more often then not.  The other day I sit Ohtani he doesn’t touch lefties, he homers.  I plug him back in tomorrow against a worse lefty in Leblanc he goes 0-4 with a silver sombrero.  Today he sits vs Ryu.  So you can sit Riley thinking he’s regressing.  But he’s an 80 grade power bat, all it takes is one wild swing and he’s likely contributing.  Unless it’s a really shallow league seems like the kind of guy you’d just plug and play until more things become known.

 

Agreed that trying to curate starts and sits for the most part is a fool's errand. I've sat plenty of stud lefty sluggers against lefty starters only for them to homer as soon as a reliever comes in.  

Gotta say though, Riley is not an 80 power bat.  80 is 3 standard deviations from the mean (50).  He's a 65 maybe 70.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slumps can last for weeks.  After a week of no hits, strikeouts, and no power it is a good idea to bench for a hot hitter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Agreed that trying to curate starts and sits for the most part is a fool's errand. I've sat plenty of stud lefty sluggers against lefty starters only for them to homer as soon as a reliever comes in.  

Gotta say though, Riley is not an 80 power bat.  80 is 3 standard deviations from the mean (50).  He's a 65 maybe 70.

A good rule of thumb is to never have rookies on your team. They're too unpredictable. Make an exception if they're white hot like Riley was. But as soon as he cools take him out. Try to trade him. Don't ride out the slump as if you have past history to reassure you that he will snap out of it. He could end up hitting 200.

Edited by Kaii23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

A good rule of thumb is to never have rookies on your team. They're too unpredictable. Make an exception if they're white hot like Riley was. But as soon as he cools take him out. Try to trade him. Don't ride out the slump as if you have past history to reassure you that he will snap out of it. He could end up hitting 200.

A good rule of thumb is to look at every player...individually.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Magoo said:

A good rule of thumb is to look at every player...individually.

Disrespect the major league learning curve at your peril. Your team tho... I'm sticking with the vets. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s not about disrespecting the curve - it’s about judging for yourself whether a given rookie has what it takes to succeed.  Nothing better than the eye test, in my opinion.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

Disrespect the major league learning curve at your peril. Your team tho... I'm sticking with the vets. 

And then you missed out on one of the best stretch a rookie has ever had in regards to HRs.

Nobody can really tell people how to run their team(s).  That's not really want I'm trying to do here with my post, but dismissing rookies can cost yourself a lot of production because, while a decent amount of them bomb (at least initially), there are ones that are truly good over the course of a season.

As already said before a stretch like this for Riley was/should have been expected, but I'm still glad I stashed him before he got called up.  He helped carry teams for a couple of weeks there.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

And then you missed out on one of the best stretch a rookie has ever had in regards to HRs.

Nobody can really tell people how to run their team(s).  That's not really want I'm trying to do here with my post, but dismissing rookies can cost yourself a lot of production because, while a decent amount of them bomb (at least initially), there are ones that are truly good over the course of a season.

As already said before a stretch like this for Riley was/should have been expected, but I'm still glad I stashed him before he got called up.  He helped carry teams for a couple of weeks there.

I didn't miss it. I picked him up as soon as he was called up. I didn't play him until he hit his first Homer and I took him out after a few convective bad games. Winning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sooo...you didn’t stick with the vets?  I’m confused.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Sooo...you didn’t stick with the vets?  I’m confused.

Read through the thread. Not just one post. I said earlier if there's an exceptionally hot rookie play him. Just pull him out at the first sign of trouble. Stick with vets from start to finish. Only play rookies on hot streaks. Never trust them all season in your lineup tho. Too risky. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Michael Bluth said:

I hope we get a double dong tonite to stop this convo

It won't stop. He can get a Homer here or there, but he'll likely be a sub Par player by the end of the year. Better to get out early and plug in another more reliable player than get emotionally attached to him and allow him to sink you. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[...]

As for Riley, he's been one of the best young studs on the season.  His pedigree points to him being the real deal as a prospect and player. I would not give him away, or jump ship.  I think he should produce RoS, but with young guys you truly just do not know.   He could be this years Soto.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed attempt to continue "rookies y/n" derail. You were warned.
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

How did the benching go?

 🤔

I actually had him in tonight. Replaced a vet with the night off. But his days as, a, starter for me are probably over.  They've figured out that he can't hit sliders. His best days are behind him this season. I stated that he'll have some good nights still. But he'll probably end up hitting 240ish. No thanks. 

Edited by Kaii23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

I actually had him in tonight. Replaced a vet with the night off. But his days as, a, starter for me are probably over.  I stated that he'll have some good nights still. But he'll probably end up hitting 240. No thanks. 

To each is their own, Bud Black.  We all have theories.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  Without getting bench coachy he just got dealt in my main league for a nice player.  If you aren’t inclined to start him much due to being too young and not having enough stripes earned, you could offer him around.  Just a thought.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Cmilne23 said:

To each is their own, Bud Black.  We all have theories.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  Without getting bench coachy he just got dealt in my main league for a nice player.  If you aren’t inclined to start him much due to being too young and not having enough stripes earned, you could offer him around.  Just a thought.  

I have several offers out right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A nice bounce back game. Hard to quantify the ability to make adjustments but he’s already making them. Laid off a tough borderline high strike in that HR ab. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/11/2019 at 6:22 PM, Kaii23 said:

It won't stop. He can get a Homer here or there, but he'll likely be a sub Par player by the end of the year. Better to get out early and plug in another more reliable player than get emotionally attached to him and allow him to sink you. 

 

That guy with an OPS of 959, in a potent Braves line up. More than likely has 3b and OF eligibility. Sure, the K rate is high but he is adapting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Kaii23 said:

I actually had him in tonight. Replaced a vet with the night off. But his days as, a, starter for me are probably over.  They've figured out that he can't hit sliders. His best days are behind him this season. I stated that he'll have some good nights still. But he'll probably end up hitting 240ish. No thanks. 

 

He was a combined ~10 feet from having three home runs tonight

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Magoo said:

A nice bounce back game. Hard to quantify the ability to make adjustments but he’s already making them. Laid off a tough borderline high strike in that HR ab. 

Yeah, definitely a nice bounce back game.

Didn't get to watch the last few innings because of the rain delay, but sliders have been giving him trouble.  Not sure if anything improved in his last couple of ABs, but he can adjust there to an extent as well.  Even now, he's still going to produce evidently, just expectedly not at the pace he was before.

I'll admit I was close to benching him for a bit after this series (the Pirates' staff is a mess right now), but I'm good.  Keep rolling with Riley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.