MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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Another opposite field shot. Outstanding. I'm a big believer of power hitters that can hit opposite field with power. 3 of his 10 HR have been oppo taco, and they look good too.

Edited by StevieStats
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18 hours ago, dicka24 said:

[...]

As for Riley, he's been one of the best young studs on the season.  His pedigree points to him being the real deal as a prospect and player. I would not give him away, or jump ship.  I think he should produce RoS, but with young guys you truly just do not know.   He could be this years Soto.

 

He's nothing like Soto

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7 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He's nothing like Soto

Soto had the plate discipline of a 10 year player. Riley not so much. 4/36 bb to K ratio. Doesn't bode well for his future outlook this season. Sell high. 

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9 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

Soto had the plate discipline of a 10 year player. Riley not so much. 4/36 bb to K ratio. Doesn't bode well for his future outlook this season. Sell high. 

 

Austin Riley reminds me of Khris Davis.    Lots of HR's and hurt some with BA.  

Should have lots of value in fantasy baseball for years with that type of profile.

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7 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

Austin Riley reminds me of Khris Davis.    Lots of HR's and hurt some with BA.  

Should have lots of value in fantasy baseball for years with that type of profile.

 

Khris Davis with worse plate discipline.  

 

(Riley/Davis career):

O-Swing% (41% / 29%)

SwStr% (21% / 15%)

Contact% (63% / 69%)

 

MLB leaderboard (out of 309 players with minimum 110 PA):

SwStr% - 21% (2nd highest)

Contact% - 63% (4th lowest) ahead of only Chavis, C.Davis, Gallo

O-Swing% - 41% (24th highest)

 

I see Riley ending up something like .250/.300/.500 with 30 HR best case scenario.

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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20 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He's nothing like Soto

 

The poster wasnt comparing his tools/characteistics he's talking production... Soto got the call up and mashed, giving a huge boost to teams, and Riley could be the one to do that this year -- Soto had 6 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 326 avg, 1.013 ops in his first 26 games... Riley has 10 HR, 29 RBI, 21 R, 292 AVG, 959 OPS... Hes certainly had just as much, if not more, of an impact than Soto did so far.

 

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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

 

The poster wasnt comparing his tools/characteistics he's talking production... Soto got the call up and mashed, giving a huge boost to teams, and Riley could be the one to do that this year -- Soto had 6 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 326 avg, 1.013 ops in his first 26 games... Riley has 10 HR, 29 RBI, 21 R, 292 AVG, 959 OPS... Hes certainly had just as much, if not more, of an impact than Soto did so far.

 

 

That's nice, but Riley's plate discipline is nowhere close to as good as Soto's and why it's extremely unlikely that this current level of production continues.

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I sold [...] Riley has hit a ton of bombs, but history has not been kind to hitters with his plate discipline profile. I fear in three weeks I'd be stuck with someone who's replacement level for a long stretch unless he makes some fairly aggressive adjustments.

Edited by tonycpsu
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all you suckers claiming poor plate discipline can sell all you want.

 

imma ride the lightning.

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He's nothing like Soto

I didn't mean Soto in terms of player styles.  I used it as a reference for rookie value in fantasy.

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Plate discipline changes so much over time... I'm not sure his numbers have even stabilized, and he is likely to evolve as a hitter

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1 minute ago, umphrey said:

Plate discipline changes so much over time... I'm not sure his numbers have even stabilized, and he is likely to evolve as a hitter

He's a long way from hitting his stride. He's just a rookie. He's gonna be a player in the years to come. 

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Sure, the 3.5% walk rate is discouraging & indicates that he’s swinging at a lot of crap outside of the strike zone.  But if you look at his minor league track record, you’ll see on base percentages pushing .400 at multiple stops. 

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2 hours ago, steve9347 said:

I sold [...] Riley has hit a ton of bombs, but history has not been kind to hitters with his plate discipline profile. I fear in three weeks I'd be stuck with someone who's replacement level for a long stretch unless he makes some fairly aggressive adjustments.

You cant say his profile is based on 100 odd ABs. He's come in mashing and will keep doing so until pitchers pitch him differently, then he will need to adjust and no reason why he can't.

1 hour ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Sure, the 3.5% walk rate is discouraging & indicates that he’s swinging at a lot of crap outside of the strike zone.  But if you look at his minor league track record, you’ll see on base percentages pushing .400 at multiple stops. 

Agreed, that is much more important when looking long term. Don't know why the hell people don't think he'll be able to draw walks in time.

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2 hours ago, pierceNKC said:

all you suckers claiming poor plate discipline can sell all you want.

 

imma ride the lightning.

 

We'll see who the real suckers are in the long run

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18 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

You cant say his profile is based on 100 odd ABs. He's come in mashing and will keep doing so until pitchers pitch him differently, then he will need to adjust and no reason why he can't.

Agreed, that is much more important when looking long term. Don't know why the hell people don't think he'll be able to draw walks in time.

 

Because regardless of his walk rate his K% and whiff rate is extremely bad.  Bottom-5 worst in the league bad.  And his 41% chase rate doesn't speak much in the way of patience.  

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57 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Because regardless of his walk rate his K% and whiff rate is extremely bad.  Bottom-5 worst in the league bad.  And his 41% chase rate doesn't speak much in the way of patience.  

Patience isn’t always a good thing. Cavan Biggio  is 1-23 with 10 BBs and a ridiculously low 5% chase rate in June. Some players simply perform better with a “see ball, hit ball” mentality. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Because regardless of his walk rate his K% and whiff rate is extremely bad.  Bottom-5 worst in the league bad.  And his 41% chase rate doesn't speak much in the way of patience.  

You'regetting flack but you are right.

However, I think its too soon to say this is his profile, it's stabilized, and what he will be moving forward. I believe in Riley to be productive, but I agree that profile certainly needs improvement, and i think his minor league track record supports improvement -- its rare for a player with that profile to succeed, Javier Baez is one of the few.

But if he keeps 20% SwStr and 41% O-Swing, he will have an uphill battle to remain productive.

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4 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Because regardless of his walk rate his K% and whiff rate is extremely bad.  Bottom-5 worst in the league bad.  And his 41% chase rate doesn't speak much in the way of patience.  

Tbf, he shouldn't be patient right now when so much of what he's doing is working. When you're swinging a hot bat you need to actually swing.

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The issue isn't so much about people saying to sell high or that some of his numbers aren't pretty.  The main issue is that some people are basically predicting that he's going to eventually fall flat on his face and not be very good.  Even with his recent slump and some bad %'s, he's still hitting .290 with a .950 OPS.  No, I don't think he'll continue to hit around .290, but there's still a real chance he ends up being an easy Top 5-8 3B for years to come (and still could be that this season from the time of his call-up to the end of the season).  Probably closer to Top 8 this season, but I think he has enough power to end up hitting closer to 40 HRs than 30 over a full season.  Opposite field power is a big deal, and while he may eventually level off at .260ish, I am still sticking with my opinion that I don't see anything wrong with people holding for the rest of the season, especially in a keeper/dynasty league.

Sure, he could collapse and we'd be left with something that is far less than what we could have gotten via trade, but there's also nothing wrong with believing in a player even if some others don't.  While Chavis has fallen off a cliff and may or may not ever climb back up, I still think there's a better chance Riley doesn't do that over the course of the rest of the season even though I also stood by Chavis on here for a while.  Like I've said before, Riley's minor league numbers are much better over the years, so I think that gives him a better shot at not leaving us wishing basically empty handed in the end.

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15 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Tbf, he shouldn't be patient right now when so much of what he's doing is working. When you're swinging a hot bat you need to actually swing.

 

Patience and swinging and missing are two very separate things though.  I agree that with how he's been hitting the ball he doesn't need to be concerned with taking pitches and drawing walks.  

Riley has certainly been swinging - he has swung at 58% of pitches he's seen (6th highest in MLB) and has swung and missed at 21% of all pitches (2nd highest) which has resulted in a 32% strikeout rate (20th highest).

It's extremely rare for a player to be successful with this kind of plate discipline because they need to make the most of the contact they do make.  Javy Baez is very similar in terms of discipline (or lack thereof) and while he's made it work he is pretty unique and has extreme bat speed, something that scouts have labeled a weakness for Riley.

 

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16 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

The issue isn't so much about people saying to sell high or that some of his numbers aren't pretty.  The main issue is that some people are basically predicting that he's going to eventually fall flat on his face and not be very good.  Even with his recent slump and some bad %'s, he's still hitting .290 with a .950 OPS.  No, I don't think he'll continue to hit around .290, but there's still a real chance he ends up being an easy Top 5-8 3B for years to come (and still could be that this season from the time of his call-up to the end of the season).  Probably closer to Top 8 this season, but I think he has enough power to end up hitting closer to 40 HRs than 30 over a full season.  Opposite field power is a big deal, and while he may eventually level off at .260ish, I am still sticking with my opinion that I don't see anything wrong with people holding for the rest of the season, especially in a keeper/dynasty league.

Sure, he could collapse and we'd be left with something that is far less than what we could have gotten via trade, but there's also nothing wrong with believing in a player even if some others don't.  While Chavis has fallen off a cliff and may or may not ever climb back up, I still think there's a better chance Riley doesn't do that over the course of the rest of the season even though I also stood by Chavis on here for a while.  Like I've said before, Riley's minor league numbers are much better over the years, so I think that gives him a better shot at not leaving us wishing basically empty handed in the end.

 

Can I ask why? They're very similar.

 

(Chavis/Riley):

Swing% - (51% / 58%)

Outside Swing% - (34% / 41%)

Outside Contact% - (48% / 53%)

SwStr% - (19% / 21%)

Contact% - (63% / 64%)

K% - (33% / 32%)

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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