MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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28 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I've made at least a dozen posts in this thread on his outlook.  I think he'll finish the year at .250/.290/.500 with 30 HR and 15 2B.

As for the comp, the guy has a ton of power (30-40 HR), strikes out a lot (30%+), hits HRs and singles, with a .240-.260 AVG. So far, his production has been very Adam Dunn-like without the walks. I did not mean that he is Adam Dunn going forward.

 

 

Don’t love the comp. That said, “who’s gonna crack 30 HRs when 60 people will” is a bit disingenuous considering he started the season in the minors. We all had someone else in the lineup, then added this production. The average will be .250ish we agree, but his 162 game average right now is:

53 HR/112 runs/136 RBI

Whether intentional or not, you’re insinuating he’s a “30 HR hitter.” He appears to be much more than that.

 

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He's accumulated 0.9 WAR in under 1/3 of a season at 22 years old. I don't think we need to worry about him getting sent down.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Having 60 players on pace to hit 30 home runs doesn't mean that 60 players are going to hit 30 home runs.  Some will get injured, many will simply cool off.  Some others who are below a 30 HR pace will have hot 2nd halves and replace the ones who fall off the pace, but that is still highly unlikely to lead to 60 players hitting that threshold.

A true apples-to-apples comparison is impossible since the ball is different this year, but I still think comparing half season numbers to full season numbers within each season is instructive.

in 2018, 44 players were on pace to crack 30 HR by 7/1/2018 and only 27 ended up reaching that mark.  This year there are 64 on pace.  Assuming the same pattern holds, we'd only expect 39 to finish above 30.  That's still a  significant increase from 27 last year, but nowhere near the >100% increase that assumes that everyone keeps up that pace, nobody gets injured, nobody is currently getting fortunate with HR/FB rate, etc.  (This is the same faulty logic that leads people to conclude that there's a HR derby effect when some guys are just playing above their natural level for a half a season.)

As for how this affects a player like Riley: yes, there are more guys hitting homers, so that one category can be devalued a little bit, because it changes the distribution of HR among the population of hitters.  In other words, it's not just that many of the 30 HR guys will be 40 HR guys this year -- it's also that some 5 HR guys will be 15 HR guys, and some 15 HR guys are 30 HR guys.  (This is how I'm interpreting the argument you're making, and if I'm wrong, so are a lot of other people, so maybe it's on you to be more clear about what you are and aren't implying.)

But this logic cuts both ways, because the guys you're playing against in your leagues have more homers, too, so you need to find them where you can.  Nobody has the luxury of building the perfect roto team in a lab -- we're all baking a cake with whatever ingredients we could afford during the draft, plus whatever we could scrounge on the wire.  If he provides help in that category, and you need that help, he's a valuable player.  The AVG drain is worth it if you need the homers, and there's still upside for a better AVG if he's able to adjust to the adjustments pitchers have made since his blistering start.

 

I'd expect a higher % of those on pace for 30 to crack it this year compared to last since we are dealing with a significantly more aerodynamic baseball this year.  The league is on pace to break the previous record of 6,105 HR hit in 2017 by 531, or 8.7%.  

As for Riley - Of the 3,757 batters with at least 200 PA's in the last 10 seasons, Riley's swinging strike rate is the 4th worst. Only Jorge Alfaro ('18, '19) and Junior Lake ('14) have posted higher rates.

So in short I think you have a player who's value is tied to a single category that is more plentiful than ever all while swinging and missing at a historic clip. I don't think there is ANY room for him to be worse in terms of plate discipline. So if you are a believer in him, you are trusting that he can substantially improve his plate discipline because hitters with his K% and low BB% do not have long careers at such razor thin margins for success.

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Don’t love the comp. That said, “who’s gonna crack 30 HRs when 60 people will” is a bit disingenuous considering he started the season in the minors. We all had someone else in the lineup, then added this production. The average will be .250ish we agree, but his 162 game average right now is:

53 HR/112 runs/136 RBI

Whether intentional or not, you’re insinuating he’s a “30 HR hitter.” He appears to be much more than that.

 

 

He is never sniffing 53 HR at his current swinging strike rate.  He makes Chris Davis' numbers look reasonable.

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6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I'd expect a higher % of those on pace for 30 to crack it this year compared to last since we are dealing with a significantly more aerodynamic baseball this year.  The league is on pace to break the previous record of 6,105 HR hit in 2017 by 531, or 8.7%.  

 

Except that's not how the math works when you divide two numbers arrived at under the same conditions to get a percentage.  Same baseball 1st half vs. 2nd half in 2018, same baseball in 1st half vs. 2nd half in 2019.

Even if we pretend the current ball traveled 10 times farther, we might expect hundreds more players to be on pace for 30 (or 40 or 50) homers, but the percent who are on pace vs. those who fall off would, all else being equal, probably be the same.  It's about the randomness of how HR are distributed between halves of the season and injury luck, neither of which change significantly between seasons.

 

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He is never sniffing 53 HR at his current swinging strike rate.  He makes Chris Davis' numbers look reasonable.

Yeah but you even think he’s going to hit 30 HR this year...in ~120 games. So that’s at least a 40 HR hitter 🤷🏽‍♂️

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giphy.gif

 

Coming back to this thread.  There are a couple guys who just aren't quite on the Austin Riley bandwagon.  End of story it would seem.....

Edited by ToO_BaD

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3 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

giphy.gif

 

Coming back to this thread.  There are a couple guys who just aren't quite on the Austin Riley bandwagon.  End of story it would seem.....

 

LOL really. I wonder what people would be saying if he started out hitting .150 and got his average up to .256 as opposed to him starting hot and hitting a slump to prove the "experts" right? He's a rookie, with some issues, so it stood to reason he'd slump. The tell-tell is how he adjusts and it takes time for most guys. Rendering a verdict after 2 months is just pure silly, but everyone is rushing "to be right" first. 

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10 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

LOL really. I wonder what people would be saying if he started out hitting .150 and got his average up to .256 as opposed to him starting hot and hitting a slump to prove the "experts" right? He's a rookie, with some issues, so it stood to reason he'd slump. The tell-tell is how he adjusts and it takes time for most guys. Rendering a verdict after 2 months is just pure silly, but everyone is rushing "to be right" first. 

 

Uhhhhhh you wonder what people would be saying if the story was completely different? That's profound.

They'd be saying something different because that would be a strong indication he was making adjustments.

 

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23 hours ago, smeeze said:

He's accumulated 0.9 WAR in under 1/3 of a season at 22 years old. I don't think we need to worry about him getting sent down.

Have you ever watched him take an at bat? Going to be a tale of two seasons unless he makes adjustments...

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22 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Yeah but you even think he’s going to hit 30 HR this year...in ~120 games. So that’s at least a 40 HR hitter 🤷🏽‍♂️

I agree that was a very confusing statement by @sportsfreak2744.  He can’t mean he’s a 30-homer hitter over the course of a full season, right?  At least, I hope he’s not trying to argue that.

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16 hours ago, BMcP said:

I agree that was a very confusing statement by @sportsfreak2744.  He can’t mean he’s a 30-homer hitter over the course of a full season, right?  At least, I hope he’s not trying to argue that.

 

I'm saying he is very likely a 30+ HR hitter this season and perhaps again in future seasons so long as he fixes his plate discipine. If he doesn't, an rollercoaster career like Chris Davis wouldn't surprise me.

 

Just for fun, comparing their rookie years:

Chris Davis '08 - (37% O-Swing, 68% Contact, 17.2% SwStr%, 28% K%, .285/.331/.549)

Austin Riley '19 - (41% O-Swing, 64% Contact, 20.6% SwStr%, 34% K%, .257/.312/.561)

 

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1 minute ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'm saying he is very likely a 30+ HR hitter this season and perhaps again in future seasons so long as he fixes his plate discipine. If he doesn't, an rollercoaster career like Chris Davis wouldn't surprise me.

 

Just for fun, comparing their rookie years:

Chris Davis '08 - (37% O-Swing, 68% Contact, 17.2% SwStr%, 28% K%, .285/.331/.549)

Austin Riley '19 - (41% O-Swing, 64% Contact, 20.6% SwStr%, 34% K%, .257/.312/.561)

 

Chris Davis used to be one of the most valuable hitters in fantasy.  I would take that comp all day!

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lolz at someone going back to the Chris Davis well when its already been done and dismantled. 

On 6/16/2019 at 12:53 PM, Kaii23 said:

Now's the time to fleece someone. Sell high. Odds are good thst his rookie season will be more Chris Davis than Albert Pujols. 

 

On 6/17/2019 at 8:36 AM, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Why in the world would anyone sell .285/.331/549 17/51/55 over 80 games? 

 

On 6/17/2019 at 5:59 PM, Kaii23 said:

Well maybe not Chris Davis. Forgot that his rookie year was actually decent. Insert the name of someone with great minor league numbers and underwhelming major league rookie numbers. Like Matt Wieters. Or Kyle schwarber. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

lolz at someone going back to the Chris Davis well when its already been done and dismantled. 

 

Dismantled? The same Chris Davis that has had 2 great fantasy seasons in 12 years? The guy that fell off the face of the planet after his 53 HR year in '13 and has hit .213 in his last 758 games since?

lolz

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Dismantled? The same Chris Davis that has had 2 great fantasy seasons in 12 years? The guy that's hit .213 since his 53 HR year in '13?

lolz

 

I'm talking rookie years here, not careers. You yourself brought those numbers up, 

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Austin's going to make some adjustments and bat .300+ in the second half don't @ me.

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1 hour ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

I'm talking rookie years here, not careers. You yourself brought those numbers up, 

 

I'm talking about how Riley could fall off at any point because of his extreme swing-and-miss issues. It can last for a little while like it did for Davis for stretches and like it has for Riley so far, but it can get ugly quick and there is really no predicting when it will happen or how long it will last.

So without big improvements it is extremely unlikely he can keep hitting HRs at this rate because his margin for success is small with his contact rate.

This will be my last comment until we see more from him I don't want to keep beating this dead horse.

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7 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I'm talking about how Riley could fall off at any point because of his extreme swing-and-miss issues. It can last for a little while like it did for Davis for stretches and like it has for Riley so far, but it can get ugly quick and there is really no predicting when it will happen or how long it will last.

So without big improvements it is extremely unlikely he can keep hitting HRs at this rate because his margin for success is small with his contact rate.

This will be my last comment until we see more from him I don't want to keep beating this dead horse.

Could fall apart? Lol. He's hitting 200 over the past month. 100 over the past week. He's already fallen apart. 

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Well, he hit .100 over a week.  Time to bail, I guess.

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Although I criticized this kid in the past, I still believe he is a solid dynasty asset and may have a few 35~40+ HR seasons when everything is said and done.

 

HOWEVER. it would be only possible if he does something about his putrid plate approach and contact. I love his tools, but that hit-or-miss approach has to go. His contact tools are not even close to players like Baez or Tatis Jr.

 

To be honest, I even thought that his early success might hinder the development trajectory of his entire career. 

 

A good plate approach and contact leaves hitters with some margin of error and solidifies their floor, that was why I said Riley must do something about his approach.

Edited by jhsong916

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His main issue right now seems to be hitting sliders on the outer part of the plate or just off the plate.  At least that's what people were saying in here before.  I only see him hit when Soroka pitches, and honestly I wasn't really paying attention to his ABs yesterday, so I can't comment on what any of his other issues are.

I think it's a little drastic to say that his early success will hurt his entire career.  Rhys Hoskins is still fine and burst onto the scene in similar fashion, although he obviously has much better plate discipline and such.  Still, it shows that just because a player has an insane start to a career doesn't mean they can't adjust at some point.

It's way too early in his career to hit the panic button in a keeper/dynasty league.  It's obviously in question what he's going to do the rest of the season, and even Atlanta has finally dropped him in the lineup, but it was kind of obvious what Riley was going to be, at least in his first season (a good amount of HRs with a potentially mediocre at best average).  Maybe he puts in plenty of work in the offseason and comes back with a better approach. We'll see.

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Looks like he's pressing for sure.  Doesn't seem to have a game plan when he gets up to the plate and just looks like he's pretty discouraged with himself.  Dropping to 8 should help take some of that pressure off and hopefully he works on not swinging for the fences each time and to be more selective.  

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

His main issue right now seems to be hitting sliders on the outer part of the plate or just off the plate.  At least that's what people were saying in here before.  I only see him hit when Soroka pitches, and honestly I wasn't really paying attention to his ABs yesterday, so I can't comment on what any of his other issues are.

I think it's a little drastic to say that his early success will hurt his entire career.  Rhys Hoskins is still fine and burst onto the scene in similar fashion, although he obviously has much better plate discipline and such.  Still, it shows that just because a player has an insane start to a career doesn't mean they can't adjust at some point.

It's way too early in his career to hit the panic button in a keeper/dynasty league.  It's obviously in question what he's going to do the rest of the season, and even Atlanta has finally dropped him in the lineup, but it was kind of obvious what Riley was going to be, at least in his first season (a good amount of HRs with a potentially mediocre at best average).  Maybe he puts in plenty of work in the offseason and comes back with a better approach. We'll see.

 

Yup. that's why I also stated him as a solid dynasty asset.

He's one of the best younger bats you could have, in terms of potential.

However, comparing him with Hoskins doesn't seam ideal, since he actually has 'one of the best' eyes in the entire game of baseball.  Much more complete and polished as a hitter than Riley even in his rookie year.

Anyway, I do think I was a bit harsh on saying that is early success would be bad for his career. However, I believe that you would also know what I intended to say.

 

If Riley manages to adjust his current ways, I believe that his power might lead him to end up as a top 5-10 3B one day.

IF he just keeps up with his dreadful approach that brought him early success, I'll not be surprised if he ends up becoming irrelevant, at least in fantasy.

Edited by jhsong916
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4 minutes ago, jhsong916 said:

 

Yup. that's why I also stated him as a solid dynasty asset.

He's one of the best younger bats you could have, in terms of potential.

However, comparing him with Hoskins doesn't seam ideal, since he actually has 'one of the best' eyes in the entire game of baseball.  Much more complete and polished as a hitter than Riley even in his rookie year.

Anyway, I do think I was a bit harsh on saying that is early success would be bad for his career. However, I believe that you would also know what I intended to say.

 

If Riley manages to adjust his current ways, I believe that his power might lead him to end up as a top 5-10 3B one day.

IF he just keeps up with his dreadful approach that brought him early success, I'll not be surprised if he ends up becoming irrelevant, at least in fantasy.

It wasn't really a direct comparison.  I was only comparing the way they both burst onto the scene, hitting HR after HR.  I did acknowledge that they are different hitters otherwise. 😀

I don't disagree that things could go either way.  It is indeed hard to strike out as much as he does without taking any walks and have big success, and those types of players are almost a dime a dozen at this point with the juiced baseballs.

At the very least, he's an interesting player to follow for the next season or two.

Edited by KilloWertz
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