MrBrown

Austin Riley 2019 Outlook

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Anyone else considering selling?  I'm tempted to float him where I own him. Although a part of me keeps thinking he's last years Soto and Acuna.  I know he won't homer in every other game the rest of the way, but he looks the part of a terrific hitter.

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7 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

Anyone else considering selling?  I'm tempted to float him where I own him. Although a part of me keeps thinking he's last years Soto and Acuna.  I know he won't homer in every other game the rest of the way, but he looks the part of a terrific hitter.

I view him like Braun 2007 if that helps.

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[As always: if you're interested in trade value in terms of specific players you got or are targeting in a trade, that is Bench Coach material.]

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1 hour ago, dicka24 said:

Anyone else considering selling?  I'm tempted to float him where I own him. Although a part of me keeps thinking he's last years Soto and Acuna.  I know he won't homer in every other game the rest of the way, but he looks the part of a terrific hitter.

I am set at OF, 3B, CI... but hurting at MI... So i have entertained selling high but not a single offer and i have not received any counters to mine... No interest to buy yet -- its too soon, people are skeptical.

 

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

I am set at OF, 3B, CI... but hurting at MI... So i have entertained selling high but not a single offer and i have not received any counters to mine... No interest to buy yet -- its too soon, people are skeptical.

 

In these scenarios I recommend trading the 'set' guys at OF, 3B,CI instead of Riley who people may be skeptical on.

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That's the second homer he's hit on an outside breaking ball and while he may have been looking for it, he still squared it up in a way few could.  He's a monster

 

“I thought I executed it pretty well. Chances are he knew it was coming or something because he put a pretty good swing on it,” Crick said. “Still, on that particular 0-1 slider, I think I executed the pitch. It was just a better piece of hitting.”

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2019/06/04/Kyle-Crick-gives-up-rare-three-run-home-run-in-Pirates-loss-against-the-Braves/stories/201906040169

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1 hour ago, rlaalsrb said:

In these scenarios I recommend trading the 'set' guys at OF, 3B,CI instead of Riley who people may be skeptical on.

I still think there's too much future risk to fully depend on Riley. In a situation like mine i think you fish for someone willing to pay, but otherwise hold and reap the benefits. You will be covered in case of injury or ability to bench a cold player. I do NOT line his extremely high swinging strikes and resulting k rate, its possible he fades hard. 

Edited by StevieStats
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[...]  I think his upside is too great currently, that it would be tough to move currently.  His BA will equalize but power potential and that lineup will produce counting stats.

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After testing the market, I think I'm going to hold for now. Too many "sell high" articles have flooded the internet, and it's affecting his return. 

At this point we can expect his average to plummet, but still think it should stabilize around the .250-.260 range. Don't think he'll completely evaporate. But I do expect a stretch where he goes real cold and needs to be benched until he adjusts back. 

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Well, I think we can safely say that we are now experiencing Riley's expected regression/slump now.  Not that it wasn't expected at some point.

I still think he is a must hold in all keeper/dynasty leagues though unless you would get overwhelmed.  As I've said before, you don't do what he did up until now by accident.

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1 hour ago, umphrey said:

Party is over, benched

What he's done has been simply phenomenal. Place him gentjy on the bench now. Tuck him in and give him a, much deserved rest. 

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You mean to tell me Riley wasn't going to bat high .300's and hit over 100 HRs?  I think I may have been duped trading Trout for him. :unsure:

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51 minutes ago, Kaii23 said:

What he's done has been simply phenomenal. Place him gentjy on the bench now. Tuck him in and give him a, much deserved rest. 

Yeah, he's entitled to take it easy for a few games or so after helping to carry our offenses since his call-up.

2 minutes ago, David Aames said:

Chavis 2.0?  is alonso next?

Riley was better than Chavis in the minors, so while I obviously can't say no without a shadow of a doubt, given that I'd say probably not.

Also, Alonso started the season in the majors, so not sure how he'd be next.  If he was going to have a hard slump like Chavis has experienced, you think he would have by now.  He seems to have leveled off as a .260ish hitter with plenty of HRs, which I can see Riley being as well at least. 

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He’s a rookie with a high K rate.  These things happen.  Even in midst of heater I would of set over under on average at .260 and likely taken under.  But his pop is 80 grade.  He can easily hit 30 homers this year missing a full month of baseball.  And he’s also a guy you’ll likely get burned playing matchups with.  Either trade him, or plug and play.  These type of sticks aren’t split heavy so rhyme or reason to stats vary.  

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Reminds me of Bellinger and his rookie year, came up and went bananas but had an ugly k rate and tons of swinging strikes, after his initial heater he hit 190 over a full month, then started raking again.

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Definitely should be benched.  Could be a long dry spell.  

 

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12 minutes ago, B&F said:

Definitely should be benched.  Could be a long dry spell.  

 

Why would you bench him?  Because he’s had a few bad baseball games in a row.  I mean the logic might work out but there’s literally nothing behind it that makes sense.  He’s facing the Pirates pitching who he just faced and went 4/12 with 3 runs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs in a 3 game set.  So what has changed between that series that just occurred this week and now that has dictated he should be benched?

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6 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Why would you bench him?  Because he’s had a few bad baseball games in a row.  I mean the logic might work out but there’s literally nothing behind it that makes sense.  He’s facing the Pirates pitching who he just faced and went 4/12 with 3 runs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs in a 3 game set.  So what has changed between that series that just occurred this week and now that has dictated he should be benched?

 

I looked at his game log.  Definitely might have been taking it too far.  Team dependent.

Braves have a home stand this week so that would be a good reason not to bench him.

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21 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Why would you bench him?  Because he’s had a few bad baseball games in a row.  I mean the logic might work out but there’s literally nothing behind it that makes sense.  He’s facing the Pirates pitching who he just faced and went 4/12 with 3 runs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs in a 3 game set.  So what has changed between that series that just occurred this week and now that has dictated he should be benched?

He's a rookie. So The regression is coming. That's a fact thst we should use to our advantage. As soon as he begins to slow we should bench him. That way he's all profit. Don't wait for his regression to negate all that he's done for you. 

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1 minute ago, Kaii23 said:

He's a rookie. So The regression is coming. That's a fact thst we should use to our advantage. As soon as he begins to slow we should bench him. That way he's all profit. Don't wait for his regression to negate all that he's done for you. 

What? You think this works? How long do you bench him for? You wait until he hits a HR, then put him back in after, HOPING it’s starting some imaginary “streak”?

This isn’t how baseball works.

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I’ll tell you this I’ve been playing this game since 2001.  You can get as cute as you want, at the end of the day it’s your own teams.  But you try to play matchups and what not you’re likely going to end up with bench stats and drive yourself crazy more often then not.  The other day I sit Ohtani he doesn’t touch lefties, he homers.  I plug him back in tomorrow against a worse lefty in Leblanc he goes 0-4 with a silver sombrero.  Today he sits vs Ryu.  So you can sit Riley thinking he’s regressing.  But he’s an 80 grade power bat, all it takes is one wild swing and he’s likely contributing.  Unless it’s a really shallow league seems like the kind of guy you’d just plug and play until more things become known.

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

What? You think this works? How long do you bench him for? You wait until he hits a HR, then put him back in after, HOPING it’s starting some imaginary “streak”?

This isn’t how baseball works.

0-3 again tonight. Enjoy.. 

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