Boudewijn

Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook

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screen-shot-2018-02-04-at-10-39-38-pm.pn

4 years in a row with 100+ targets, 75% catch rate, almost never injured (for a TE): 1 game in 215, 2 in 2016/2017 and none in 2018. Contract safe, clearly the #1 on the Eagles, what's not to like?

Well...Ertz last season had 116 receptions and 1100 yards, after 3 years around 75/800+. I'm not sure if the high trffic can be sustained; Pederson likes to spread the ball around, and 2018 was only the second time in 6 years as OC/HC that he had a 1000+ yards receiver. (As a fun side note, in those 6 years only one time Perderson's top receiver was a WR; other years it was a TE or RB.)

So his current ADP is now round 3, but I'm not 100% convinced he is as safe as he seems to be. Maybe half a round or a round later would be a fairer price?

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8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

screen-shot-2018-02-04-at-10-39-38-pm.pn

4 years in a row with 100+ targets, 75% catch rate, almost never injured (for a TE): 1 game in 215, 2 in 2016/2017 and none in 2018. Contract safe, clearly the #1 on the Eagles, what's not to like?

Well...Ertz last season had 116 receptions and 1100 yards, after 3 years around 75/800+. I'm not sure if the high trffic can be sustained; Pederson likes to spread the ball around, and 2018 was only the second time in 6 years as OC/HC that he had a 1000+ yards receiver. (As a fun side note, in those 6 years only one time Perderson's top receiver was a WR; other years it was a TE or RB.)

So his current ADP is now round 3, but I'm not 100% convinced he is as safe as he seems to be. Maybe half a round or a round later would be a fairer price?

to add goedert is in position to make a contribution in year 2 but the knock i have on him is how comfortable is wentz usig goedert given wentz has missed so much time  on the field

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

His current ADP is now round 3, but I'm not 100% convinced he is as safe as he seems to be. Maybe half a round or a round later would be a fairer price?

Exactly, I won't touch him in the early 3rd.  Surprised he's still going that high.

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I'm still maybe/maybe not on Ertz.   Typically in the third i'm still finding a player I want more than him, so i'd say its unlikely I get him.   He's going closer to Kelce than  i'd like to see.   Ertz i like, but dont love, but Kelce is a guy i'm beaming if i get him on my team.  

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34 minutes ago, jmausen said:

Wentz is always hurt.

The backup QB situation concerns me.

 

Yep, Foles fed Ertz well.   Who is the backup, Sudfeld?   

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15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

What's his target share %? 

2018 pass26%, red% 32 ,end 29%

2017 p23%,   r23%,  e27%

 which is why he is has been an elite TE the last 2yrs 😱 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

2018 pass26%, red% 32 ,end 29%

2017 p23%,   r23%,  e27%

 which is why he is has been an elite TE the last 2yrs 😱 

In 2018 OJ Howard was on pace to score more points than Zach Ertz did in 2017 😂😂😂😂😂

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20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

In 2018 OJ Howard was on pace to score more points than Zach Ertz did in 2017 😂😂😂😂😂

but he didnt sscore more points than Ertz. . . 

Again WHAT is your position on his value?

Are you saying Howard is a fantasy te#2  that can be acquired for a te#5 price?

 Take a position. What are you saying dude? 🤣

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PPR I will gladly take Ertz in the third.  Might not be a huge TD guy but gets WR targets weekly.  In standard I can see pushing him to middle of fourth.  With so many question marks at the position it is a nice luxury to have his consistency.

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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

2018 pass26%, red% 32 ,end 29%

2017 p23%,   r23%,  e27%

 which is why he is has been an elite TE the last 2yrs 😱 

 

Actually he has been an elite TE the last 2 years because he is one of the best receiving TEs in the league. The target shares are just a result of the coaching staff/QB recognizing that and passing the ball to him a lot.

You've got your cause and effects mixed up again. Ertz most certainly is not elite just because they overwhelm him with volume. He has earned that volume through his play on the field.

 

Edited by MJJ28
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9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Actually he has been an elite TE the last 2 years because he is one of the best receiving TEs in the league. The target shares are just a result of the coaching staff/QB recognizing that and passing the ball to him a lot.

You've got your cause and effects mixed up again.

 

 

I dont have anything mixed up. . .😂

In case you didnt know,  in fantasy it's good to focus on players who get volume because that volume correlates to points

The data  shows  his percentage of the volume and I point out the consistency of the data as it relates to elite production.

You can focus on the cause and affects of it all 👀

 

Nice try dude,  so keep shooting and you may eventually hit the mark. . .🤣

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

I dont have anything mixed up. . .😂

In case you didnt know but in fantasy it's good to focus on players who get volume because that volume correlates to points

The data  shows  his percentage of the volume and I point out the consistency of the data.

You can focus on the cause and affects of it all 👀

 

Oh I know. It's also good to understand what data is.

Stats are just measures of past events. They explain what happened, but they don't explain why. For that, you need to think.

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37 minutes ago, Breesus said:

I’m looking at him with my 5th pick. 130 rec 2000 yards 20 TD’s seems completely viable 

 

as a floor.

 

13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Oh I know. It's also good to understand what data is.

Stats are just measures of past events. They explain what happened, but they don't explain why. For that, you need to think.

 

i agree, but you don't want to think too much---that's where the danger is---so you need to think, but just the right amount, because all it takes is one thought too many to throw the thinking into over-thinking and then you're done, because it becomes a vicious cycle in which you're never done thinking, until it ends on draft day, when you've taken ertz and your miserable, or you didn't take ertz and your miserable, and the only thing certain is your misery. think about it.

17 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

So his current ADP is now round 3, but I'm not 100% convinced he is as safe as he seems to be. Maybe half a round or a round later would be a fairer price?

 

i'm a dynasty owner of ertz. nabbed him three years ago, trading away joique bell and a handful of magic beans. i get trade offers for ertz every 12 hours and i refuse to trade. the team who traded ertz to me three years ago had to leave the league due to embarrassment. i think he had to quit fantasy football.

but in redraft, i don't know. on one hand, in PPR, three teams will have a positional advantage (the kelce, kittle ertz teams). but the advantage don't come cheap. gotzta pay. on the other hand, i have no doubt that ertz will excel in PPR. like you mention, ertz has demonstrated durability, and like you didn't mention, eagles' WRs have demonstrated the lack of durability. when djax and alshon go down, and agholor is double-teamed, and mack hollins and arcega-whiteside are just running north-south to spread the defenses, ertz will win you weeks singlehandedly. his 14-catch game last year against dallas was legendary, 147 yards and 2 TDs (yet the eagles lost).

in five games last season, ertz had double-digit receptions (not targets, but catches) and 94 or more yards (that's five games of 20+ fantasy points). in 16 games last season, ertz had 4 games of single-digit fantasy points (PPR) dudds. kittle had 3; kelce had none.

conclusion: if i drafted today, i'm paying a 3rd round price tag for ertz in PPR. if it's half-PPR or less, i'm not (unless it's 3.12 and i'm staring at amari cooper or ertz).

disclaimer: i'm slightly buzzed right now.

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33 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

disclaimer: i'm slightly buzzed right now.

Good for you! It still all more or less makes sens le and you make good points.

Except: you keep quoting last year, but I think last year was an outlier, and it's not unreasonable to expect LESS than last year, instead of the same or better. That's why I think 3rd round may be too much.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Good for you! It still all more or less makes sens le and you make good points.

Except: you keep quoting last year, but I think last year was an outlier, and it's not unreasonable to expect LESS than last year, instead of the same or better. That's why I think 3rd round may be too much.

 

true, in 2018 his 116 receptions and 1163 yards is borderline insane for a TE. he scored 8 TDs, and as i mentioned only had 4 games of single-digit fantasy points (PPR). i'm always looking out for that, a measure of consistency with a solid floor. with 9 teams in a 12-team league laying goose eggs every week, that’s only 4 games from ertz where you’re yelling at the screen. it’s a positional advantage. it’s set-and-forget (although i also like to watch him play).

 

so… consider, in 2017, ertz had 2 games out of 16 where he failed to score double-digit fantasy points in PPR. an improvement consistency-wise, as he still provided the points through receptions and yardage: 74 receptions for 824 yards. he also had 8 TDs. he ranked TE #3 behind gronk and kelce. seems a lock for TE3 in 2019 and the potential for TE2.

 

in 2016, he earned his 78 receptions (5th most, but only 8 receptions away from #1)

and we saw 75 receptions in 2015 (6th most, only 4 rec. away from #3). only matters in PPR, but it matters greatly.

 

point being, while the 116 receptions is clearly a high, and if you call it an “outlier” i’m there with you, ertz is the only TE to snatch 74 or more receptions over the past four years. PPR? PPR! 16 games is nearly a certainty, seems like 75 receptions is a floor, the majority of these games earning double-digit fantasy points.

 

but as always, who else is there beside him? if it’s PPR, i’m choosing ertz over inconsistent players with high risk

 

               fournette, freeman, damien williams, amari cooper, and any QB

 

I’d struggle to choose ertz over

 

               marlon mack, aj green, and steffon digs.

 

and i’m decling ertz if i can instead land

 

               adam thielen, ty hilton, keenan allen, derrick henry

 

my two cents.

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21 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

 

 

 

and i’m decling ertz if i can instead land

 

 

 

               adam thielen, ty hilton, keenan allen, derrick henry

 

 

 

my two cents.

 

 

Yes sir

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On 5/22/2019 at 6:57 PM, Sack Exchange said:

 

as a floor.

 

 

i agree, but you don't want to think too much---that's where the danger is---so you need to think, but just the right amount, because all it takes is one thought too many to throw the thinking into over-thinking and then you're done, because it becomes a vicious cycle in which you're never done thinking, until it ends on draft day, when you've taken ertz and your miserable, or you didn't take ertz and your miserable, and the only thing certain is your misery. think about it.

 

i'm a dynasty owner of ertz. nabbed him three years ago, trading away joique bell and a handful of magic beans. i get trade offers for ertz every 12 hours and i refuse to trade. the team who traded ertz to me three years ago had to leave the league due to embarrassment. i think he had to quit fantasy football.

but in redraft, i don't know. on one hand, in PPR, three teams will have a positional advantage (the kelce, kittle ertz teams). but the advantage don't come cheap. gotzta pay. on the other hand, i have no doubt that ertz will excel in PPR. like you mention, ertz has demonstrated durability, and like you didn't mention, eagles' WRs have demonstrated the lack of durability. when djax and alshon go down, and agholor is double-teamed, and mack hollins and arcega-whiteside are just running north-south to spread the defenses, ertz will win you weeks singlehandedly. his 14-catch game last year against dallas was legendary, 147 yards and 2 TDs (yet the eagles lost).

in five games last season, ertz had double-digit receptions (not targets, but catches) and 94 or more yards (that's five games of 20+ fantasy points). in 16 games last season, ertz had 4 games of single-digit fantasy points (PPR) dudds. kittle had 3; kelce had none.

conclusion: if i drafted today, i'm paying a 3rd round price tag for ertz in PPR. if it's half-PPR or less, i'm not (unless it's 3.12 and i'm staring at amari cooper or ertz).

disclaimer: i'm slightly buzzed right now.

 

Nobody this time last year was saying that having Kittle gave you a positional advantage. There is always a TE that comes out of nowhere/the low-end TE1 range to become elite.  In 2017, that TE was Ertz. Paying higher than a 3rd rd price for any TE requires them to have a historically good season to justify that capital spent. 

 

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On 5/22/2019 at 6:34 PM, Boudewijn said:

Good for you! It still all more or less makes sens le and you make good points.

Except: you keep quoting last year, but I think last year was an outlier, and it's not unreasonable to expect LESS than last year, instead of the same or better. That's why I think 3rd round may be too much.

 

Why do you think Ertz would be worse this year than last? I actually like him more this year if he and Wentz stay healthy all season. 

 

Big if, I know, but I try to avoid playing what if injury games 

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18 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Why do you think Ertz would be worse this year than last? I actually like him more this year if he and Wentz stay healthy all season. 

 

Because his 1100 yd season was an outlier both for Ertz, and for Pederson offenses.

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Why do you think Ertz would be worse this year than last?

Last year he was targeted 44 more times than his previous career high.  The Eagles added DeSean Jackson and JJ Arcega-Whiteside at WR, along with Miles Sanders at RB.  The volume just cannot be there. 

 

He also has Dallas Goedert to compete with for TE target share % 😂

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On 5/22/2019 at 12:47 AM, Boudewijn said:

Ertz last season had 116 receptions and 1100 yards, after 3 years around 75/800+. I'm not sure if the high trffic can be sustained

I'm sure; it can't. One of the most overpriced guys in fantasy football. I can't wait to see someone overpay for last year's stats. 

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On 5/23/2019 at 9:21 PM, Boudewijn said:

 

Because his 1100 yd season was an outlier both for Ertz, and for Pederson offenses.

Was it? Pederson offenses have existed for a total of 3 seasons. The TE has seen at least 100 targets in every season and the targets have risen every season with a career year in 2018. 800-1000 yards is definitely reasonable and so are 8+ TD's. TE is the focal point of the offense.

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