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Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook

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1000 is far from reasonable to expect from any TE not named Kelce, and you conveniently ignore how they have many more good receiving options now, not to mention how Ertz way out-performed his norm. 

But keep pimping and jumping his draft value up :) 

Edited by bomont

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Ertz has averaged over 800 receiving yards the last 3 seasons. We have seen how the Eagles offense operates. That isn't going to suddenly change.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

TE is the focal point of the offense.

And now there are 2 of them

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

There are two GOOD receiving TEs, he means. That hasn't always been.

Ok, so maybe that’s fewer targets for the WRs. Doesn’t necessarily impact Ertz negatively. Why would they want to change Ertz’s role? Is KC looking to get Kelce less involved?

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2018 was Highwater Ertz Mark.  It's all downhill from here.  Pay a premium for past performance if you like.  No one's stopping you.

Of the many concerns about his outlook, it seems that the Eagles want to run the ball more and better in 2019.  And it need hardly be mentioned that Ertz is a below average blocker on his best day.  And that is being generous.

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23 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Ok, so maybe that’s fewer targets for the WRs. Doesn’t necessarily impact Ertz negatively. Why would they want to change Ertz’s role? Is KC looking to get Kelce less involved?

Kelce has nothing to do w/this. No idea why you're hanging onto this viewpoint but the evidence clearly doesn't support it. Why would they NOT involve a talented TE who showed great promise in his rookie year, along with all the other additional, talented weapons they have now? Why would they not spread it around and keep defenses guessing? Pretty sure that's a big part of the game. If they didn't have any other talented WRs or TEs (and that's not even throwing in Sanders, who can catch as well and is bound to get some short dump-offs) I could see your point. But they have plenty. I would not be at all surprised if Ertz had, statisictally, one of his "worst" seasons (but still good) in years. 

But if you are convinced Ertz will repeat last year, go for it!  

Edited by bomont

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I'm not convinced the Eagles run enough two TE formations that feature both TE's as receiving options. This isn't the Patriots where Hernandez was a glorified slot receiver. Ertz is still going to see over 100 targets barring injury. They had a talented rookie TE (much more talent than Burton) and Ertz had a career season. Burton was there for the previous two seasons by the way. The Eagles have always had talented TE's under Pederson.

He doesn't have to repeat last season. 800+ yards and 8+ TD's are within reach.

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32 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Ok, so maybe that’s fewer targets for the WRs. Doesn’t necessarily impact Ertz negatively. Why would they want to change Ertz’s role? Is KC looking to get Kelce less involved?

They also have more WR's.  It's pretty obvious Ertz can't get the targets he had last year without a fee injuries.

 

Additions:

Desean Jackson

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Boston Scott

Miles Sanders

 

Departures:

Jay Ajayi

Maybe Darren Sproles

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6 minutes ago, devaster said:

I'm not convinced the Eagles run enough two TE formations that feature both TE's as receiving options. This isn't the Patriots where Hernandez was a glorified slot receiver. Ertz is still going to see over 100 targets barring injury. They had a talented rookie TE (much more talent than Burton) and Ertz had a career season. Burton was there for the previous two seasons by the way. The Eagles have always had talented TE's under Pederson.

He doesn't have to repeat last season. 800+ yards and 8+ TD's are within reach.

IMO that might be his ceiling this year.

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23 minutes ago, bomont said:

IMO that might be his ceiling this year.

Career years are often ceilings. But he has averaged well over 100 targets and 800+ receiving yards the last 3 seasons. And he put up 8 TD 2 of the last 3 seasons. I don't view 800+ yards as his ceiling.

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11 hours ago, devaster said:

But he has averaged well over 100 targets and 800+ receiving yards the last 3 seasons. And he put up 8 TD 2 of the last 3 seasons.

800 yards and 8 TD's isn't worth an early 3rd round pick.

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17 hours ago, bomont said:

Kelce has nothing to do w/this. No idea why you're hanging onto this viewpoint but the evidence clearly doesn't support it. Why would they NOT involve a talented TE who showed great promise in his rookie year, along with all the other additional, talented weapons they have now? Why would they not spread it around and keep defenses guessing? Pretty sure that's a big part of the game. If they didn't have any other talented WRs or TEs (and that's not even throwing in Sanders, who can catch as well and is bound to get some short dump-offs) I could see your point. But they have plenty. I would not be at all surprised if Ertz had, statisictally, one of his "worst" seasons (but still good) in years. 

But if you are convinced Ertz will repeat last year, go for it!  

Now that I think about it, you’re right. The best path to a successful 2019 for Philadelphia is to minimize the role of their #1 offensive weapon, and see to it that their Pro Bowl TE has his worst statistical season in years. It’s a brilliant strategy, because on the surface it seems so stupid.

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

800 yards and 8 TD's isn't worth an early 3rd round pick.

Him listed as a TE on your roster vs listed as a WR changes the price dramatically, I'd agree with your comment here if we were talking about a WR.

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6 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Now that I think about it, you’re right. The best path to a successful 2019 for Philadelphia is to minimize the role of their #1 offensive weapon, and see to it that their Pro Bowl TE has his worst statistical season in years. It’s a brilliant strategy, because on the surface it seems so stupid.

Yes that's what I'm saying, glad you saw the light. 

smh

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6 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Him listed as a TE on your roster vs listed as a WR changes the price dramatically, I'd agree with your comment here if we were talking about a WR.

How far off from 800/8 do you think Howard, Engram, and Henry will be?

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13 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

How far off from 800/8 do you think Howard, Engram, and Henry will be?

I have Engram at around 800 yards, Howard and Henry a bit lower.

BTW 100 yard per TD is very low. Some TEs manage it, but on 800 I expect 5 or 6 TD, and on 600 TD more like 4.

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Ertz and Kittle are both feeling pricey to me. Early 3rd round pick for TEs who just had career years. I think it’s possible for them to produce again (they’re both great talents), but even if they do you’re pretty much paying for their ceiling with an early 3rd round pick. There’s just not much equity selecting these players at that spot.

There’s also a lot of hype about the “top 3” TEs this year. There’s two parts to it:

1) those top 3 are great

2) the rest of the TE landscape has been trash

I think point #2 is responsible for AT LEAST a one round bump in ADP for these top 3 TEs. But if a few other TEs can step up this year, that really decreases the value of the top 3 even if they produce up to expectations.

In summary, to justify a 2nd or 3rd round pick for a player in a position that overall scores less points than all other fantasy skill positions and standard leagues only require you to start one player at that position, that player must live up to its high expectations AND the rest of the players at that position must continue to suck. Again, I just don’t see much equity in picking one of these guys in the early 3rd. They’re being selected pretty much at their ceiling, and to me that sounds like a lot of risk. 

With all that said, since this is an Ertz thread...Ertz is a stud muffin. 

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But Ertz has been better with Foles than he has with Wentz, correct?  

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26 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But Ertz has been better with Foles than he has with Wentz, correct?  

 

Eh I'd say it's pretty close to even. With Wentz he had like 4 double digit reception games and 6tds. With Foles he had 2 double digit receptions and 2tds  in 7 games counting playoffs

Alshon is the guy who was better with foles.

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On 6/23/2019 at 11:44 AM, RMJ_12 said:

They also have more WR's.  It's pretty obvious Ertz can't get the targets he had last year without a fee injuries.

 

Additions:

Desean Jackson

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Boston Scott

Miles Sanders

 

Departures:

Jay Ajayi

Maybe Darren Sproles

 

Those guys aren't going to be getting nearly the targets you are pumping here.  Boston Scott gonna need to pray to wear a practice squad jersey.

 

Every JJ target means 1 less Alshon or DJax target too.  I don't think they ran any 4 WR sets last year and if they did I missed it.

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10 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Every JJ target means 1 less Alshon or DJax target too. 

That's not how this works.

 

Explain why Ertz was targeted 2 times less per game in 2017 and 2016 than he was in 2018?

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