Boudewijn

Zach Ertz 2019 Outlook

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Everyone is talking about a loss of targets for Ertz, which seems likely of course, however with the additions on offense, couldn’t that open him up to a more efficient season?

 

He was at a career low 10.0 yards per reception last year, while the previous year he was at 11.1. DJax should help keep a safety off of him a little more, probably opening him up a bit.

 

Less targets, better efficiency. I’m projecting him at around 125-130 targets, which if he catches around 70% of them puts him between 87-91 catches. If he gets back up to 11 yards per reception that gives him 957-1,001 yards. Throw in about 7 or 8 TDs seems pretty good to me. A little regression but not the massive earth shattering regression some seem to be calling for in my opinion.

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On 7/2/2019 at 2:54 PM, Shake said:

Everyone is talking about a loss of targets for Ertz, which seems likely of course, however with the additions on offense, couldn’t that open him up to a more efficient season?

 

He was at a career low 10.0 yards per reception last year, while the previous year he was at 11.1. DJax should help keep a safety off of him a little more, probably opening him up a bit.

 

Less targets, better efficiency. I’m projecting him at around 125-130 targets, which if he catches around 70% of them puts him between 87-91 catches. If he gets back up to 11 yards per reception that gives him 957-1,001 yards. Throw in about 7 or 8 TDs seems pretty good to me. A little regression but not the massive earth shattering regression some seem to be calling for in my opinion.

great post. i agree all in all, though ertz’s efficiency in receiving in 2018 was 5% higher than his 6-year career average, so i can’t see this increasing even further. still, this efficiency for ertz was relatively equal to wentz’s first year (2016), so i don’t consider the 2018 increase an anomaly to factor into a regression projection for 2019: 73-74% catch rate is entirely reasonable.

 

regarding his 10.0 yards per reception, i see this as a low because defenses were honing in on ertz, treating him like the #1 on the eagles (which he was). note: ertz’s yards per target (not yards per reception) remained a steady 7.5, comparable to previous seasons.

 

like you posted, clearly ertz will see less targets. ertz’s targets last year were WR1-level at 156, 25.7% of the target share. previously, ertz saw 20% in 2017, 17.5% in 2016. he also had a 32.1% share of red zone targets, #1 for TEs (yet notably his end zone targets  at #6—ertz is/was more a WR in usage).

 

so regarding regression, i agree that ertz’s ypc will regress positively, more towards 11 (even if his targets remain at 7.5 yards), because DJax and Alshon and goedert in two-TE sets will make it near to impossible for defenses to hone in on ertz. but some factors to consider here: in 2017, alshon had 120 targets in 16 games, one of his rare 16-game seasons as a pro. more than likely alshon will sit out 2-5 games in 2019. in 2018, alshon’s targets dipped to 92 because he missed 3 games, and ertz’s climbed massively. in 11 seasons, DJax has only played 2 full seasons, the last one in 2013, so expect him to miss several games. (also worth noting: ertz’s health has been exceptional.) unless arcega-whiteside or agholor suddenly become outstanding threats, we can expect ertz to see an increase in targets during the games where djax and alshon sit, and during this increase in targets a decrease in efficiency because he’ll be treated more like a WR1. give a little, take a little…

 

and i agree with your 87-91 catches: let’s peg wentz for 600 attempts, ertz for 20% of this, and a 73.5% catch rate: 88 receptions, 970 yards. TDs are tough to predict, but 7-8 is entirely reasonable. in PPR, ertz is a no-brainer in round 3. in other formats, and if his ADP inflates, adjust accordingly.

 

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On 7/2/2019 at 12:41 PM, RMJ_12 said:

That's not how this works.

 

Explain why Ertz was targeted 2 times less per game in 2017 and 2016 than he was in 2018?

 

I wrote this long thing up on my work CPU but forgot to finish and send it and then forgot and powered it off. It's gone now. 

 

I shan't be writing it again.

 

Just know that you're wrong. This is how it works. Good day. 

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On 7/2/2019 at 2:54 PM, Shake said:

Everyone is talking about a loss of targets for Ertz, which seems likely of course, however with the additions on offense, couldn’t that open him up to a more efficient season?

I also think it's possible that the Eagles pass attempts as a whole come down a bit.  The Eagles project to be a pretty good team this year so I can see some more run heavy game scripts.  They did also bring in 2 RB's this offseason.

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On 7/2/2019 at 12:27 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Every JJ target means 1 less Alshon or DJax target too.  I don't think they ran any 4 WR sets last year and if they did I missed it.

Why would they run 4 WR sets in a year that they only had 2 good WR's?

 

This doesn't mean they can't run those sets now that they have the personnel for it.

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why would they run 4 WR sets in a year that they only had 2 good WR's?

 

This doesn't mean they can't run those sets now that they have the personnel for it.

 

Very few teams consistently run 4 WR sets. 

 

Most common offensive personnel groupings will likely be 1 back 3 WR 1 TE or 1 back 2 WR 2 TE. 

 

JJ being groomed for outside, likely spelling alshon and DJax in games before they're injured at some point and he sees consistent game snaps. 

 

Agholor and ertz were the 2 staples of that offense last year. I can't recall ever seeing EITHER of them not on field during any given offensive play. 

 

Therefore ertz and Agholor snaps are safe. 

 

Therefore JJ snaps and thus targets come at expense of alshon or DJax. 

 

Football math isn't "I add this WR I must subtract a percentage of everyone's targets".  That's not how the game works. 

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Bottom line to me is they have a lot more good targets this year. They added Jackson, JJ A-W, Sanders (who can catch), and a rising Goedart. That's a LOT more shares. No way am I paying what Ertz will cost this year as IMO his targets are going to be well reduced.  

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Therefore ertz and Agholor snaps are safe. . 

The Eagles are probably very confident in Goedert at this point.  He can certainly take more snaps from Ertz in 1 TE sets.

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On 7/2/2019 at 10:54 PM, Shake said:

I’m projecting him at around 125-130 targets, which if he catches around 70% of them puts him between 87-91 catches. If he gets back up to 11 yards per reception that gives him 957-1,001 yards. Throw in about 7 or 8 TDs seems pretty good to me.

Yep, I get to numbers that are pretty close (120/85 for 1020/7). Those are numbers that are in line with the past couple years, and it validates him as a third rounder.

Edited by Boudewijn

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12 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

The Eagles are probably very confident in Goedert at this point.  He can certainly take more snaps from Ertz in 1 TE sets.

 

Why on earth would you ever remove your best offensive weapon off the field when he's not injured? 

 

As good as Foles played for eagles when Wentz was healthy he never saw the field. 

 

The biggest difference is that you can have 2 TEs on the field where you can't have 2 QBs unless you're weird. Goedert snaps will come in addition to ertz, not as his expense. 

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45 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Why on earth would you ever remove your best offensive weapon off the field when he's not injured? 

 

Goedert snaps will come in addition to ertz, not as his expense. 

Idea that adding DeSean Jackson and JJ Arcega-whiteside, along with giving Goedert more snaps doesn't affect Ertz's target share is an odd one.

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33 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Idea that adding DeSean Jackson and JJ Arcega-whiteside, along with giving Goedert more snaps doesn't affect Ertz's target share is an odd one.

 

We arguing snap count or target share here? 

 

No. I don't think his snap count will be effected. 

 

Yes. I think his target share gets affected a bit, but not to the extent you argue because I don't believe his snaps take a hit. 

 

I actually don't even believe DJax is that great anymore. I think he's a NAME more than a player. 

 

My biggest question is Wentz. I've seen him successfully scramble and drop dimes down field. It's gonna be about who his trusted guy is. I believe that'll be ertz and alshon. I actually see JJ in a bit role this year (barring injuries). 

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21 hours ago, devaster said:

Wentz targeted Ertz more than Foles.

My concern is if history repeats itself, meaning, assuming Wentz misses time like the last couple seasons, how much will the new backup target ertz?

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2 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

My concern is if history repeats itself, meaning, assuming Wentz misses time like the last couple seasons, how much will the new backup target ertz?

if history is your concern, you can use your own argument to alleviate this worry: alshon and djax will miss time, and when they do these games yield more targets to ertz.

plus, sudfeld (kessler?) or whoever the wentz backup is will need to rely on ertz... wouldn't you?

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I think Ertz will be in between his 2017 & 2018 numbers. Here's why...

In 2017, in 1 point PPR, Ertz scored 205.40 FP's and was the #3 TE. He had 110 targets in 14 games. That's 1.87 points per target and 7.86 targets per game.
In 2018, in 1 point PPR, Ertz scored 285.30 FP's and was the #2 TE. He had 156 targets in 16 games. That's 1.83 points per target and 9.75 targets per game.

So in both seasons, he scored almost the same amount of points per target (.04 difference). 

Let's say in 2019, his targets drop to 8.3 per game. Less than 2018 but more than 2017 is not unreasonable IMO. If Ertz plays 16 games (and of course for any player we draft highly, we're hoping for 16 games), that would give him 133 targets. That's 23 less targets than 2018 and 23 more targets than 2017. Seems reasonable considering that yes the Eagles have added some additional WR's, but also takes into account that rookies and injury-prone players shouldn't be expected to account for a huge target share all at the expense of the best pass catcher on the team. 

IF that ends up being the case and Ertz stays at the 1.83 points per target figure, Ertz would score 243.39 FP's in 2019, for 1 point PPR.

In 2018, 243.FP's would have made him the #18 overall WR/TE. There were 2 TE's who bettered that and 15 WR's.

I project that 243.39 FP's will still give Ertz a significant positional advantage edge at TE in 2019 (and will be good enough to be a WR #2 in it's own right). 

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RW Blurb is laughable:

Quote

NJ.com's Zack Rosenblatt believes Zach Ertz's targets will "likely go down" in 2019.

 

Then click on the article

Quote

 

1. Don’t forget about Zach Ertz: It’s easy to fall into a habit of focusing solely on the quarterbacks, new players and guys fighting for roster spots in training camp, but the expected stars still deserve some attention too. Especially Zach Ertz, the tight end who has been one of — if not the — best players in training camp. That’s especially true in the red zone, where he seems to be unstoppable.

Tuesday, Ertz had a stellar catch at the back of the end zone past linebacker Alex Singleton where Carson Wentz threw it to the back of the end — couldn’t have been more on the money — and Ertz both reeled it in and dragged his toes to complete the catch, much to the chagrin of nearby defensive backs coach Cory Undlin.

He also easily scored a touchdown over cornerback Sidney Jones in the corner of the end zone too.

Watching Ertz, it’s easy to forget that not too long ago scoring touchdowns was a knock against him. He had 13 touchdowns combined his first four years. The last two: 16 touchdowns.

His targets will likely go down in an offense with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Nelson Agholor, Dallas Goedert and Darren Sproles, but he’ll likely still lead the team in targets/receptions, and maybe even touchdowns, too.

 

 

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1 hour ago, yanksman said:

RW Blurb is laughable:

 

 

If you read the whole blurb - and not just the headline - it actually includes all the pertinent info:

NJ.com's Zack Rosenblatt believes Zach Ertz's targets will "likely go down" in 2019.

It's closer to "very likely" given the Eagles' pass-catching additions and Dallas Goedert's projected ascendance. Last year, Ertz saw 156 targets, the most at the position since targets were tracked. Rosenblatt believes Ertz will "likely still lead the team in targets/receptions, and maybe even touchdowns" but it's safe to project less production in 2019. Ertz is being drafted in the third round of fantasy drafts.

 

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On 7/4/2019 at 11:48 PM, RMJ_12 said:

Idea that adding DeSean Jackson and JJ Arcega-whiteside, along with giving Goedert more snaps doesn't affect Ertz's target share is an odd one.

Agreed.  Having more targets to choose from can adversely affect a player, no matter how talented.

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What concerns me about Ertz is how he was used in the back half of the year. Through the first 10 games he played on 97% of snaps, averaged 88 yards per game and 8 catches. In the last 8 games (including playoffs) he saw a dip in playing time to only 83% of snaps while averaging 54 yards and 6 catches. Over that same time frame Goedert saw his snap % increase from 42% in the first 10 games to 56% in the remainder. Given Goedert is a rookie being worked into the system, it stands to reason that the snap % in the back half is more representative than of the first 10 games. In a 0.5 ppr setting assuming Ertz scores 6 TDs (last 8 games extrapolated over full season), his 6 catch, 54 yards per game would put him at 168 points on the season. This is well below the 237 points he scored last season and would have made him the tight end #5/6 if OJ Howard had played all 16 games. 

Edited by Catch23
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On 8/29/2019 at 3:04 PM, Catch23 said:

What concerns me about Ertz is how he was used in the back half of the year. Through the first 10 games he played on 97% of snaps, averaged 88 yards per game and 8 catches. In the last 8 games (including playoffs) he saw a dip in playing time to only 83% of snaps while averaging 54 yards and 6 catches. Over that same time frame Goedert saw his snap % increase from 42% in the first 10 games to 56% in the remainder. Given Goedert is a rookie being worked into the system, it stands to reason that the snap % in the back half is more representative than of the first 10 games. In a 0.5 ppr setting assuming Ertz scores 6 TDs (last 8 games extrapolated over full season), his 6 catch, 54 yards per game would put him at 168 points on the season. This is well below the 237 points he scored last season and would have made him the tight end #5/6 if OJ Howard had played all 16 games. 

Adding onto this, his average for the latter part of 2018 is even lower when you take away his monster Week 16. Including playoffs and Week 1 2019, here are the last 7 games Ertz has played...

--Week 14 2018: 5-38-0 (8 targets)
--Week 15 2018: 3-22-0 (7 targets)

--Week 16 2018: 12-110-2 (16 targets)
--Week 17 2018: 3-15-0 (4 targets)
--Wild Card 2018: 5-52-0 (7 targets)
--Divisional Round 2018: 5-50-0 (8 targets)
--Week 1 2019: 5-54-0 (7 targets)

I had done analysis in this thread over the summer, projecting Ertz in between his 2017 and 2018 numbers. But I hadn't looked closely enough at how his numbers (both actual production and targets) dropped as 2018 progressed. Combine that with a Week 1 opener that was very similar to how he ended 2018, and there's certainly room for concern, for those expecting another huge season. The caveat to this is that Wentz was QB only for the first game in the above-mentioned stretch, so that's certainly worth considering.

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19 hours ago, Corleone said:

Adding onto this, his average for the latter part of 2018 is even lower when you take away his monster Week 16. Including playoffs and Week 1 2019, here are the last 7 games Ertz has played...

--Week 14 2018: 5-38-0 (8 targets)
--Week 15 2018: 3-22-0 (7 targets)

--Week 16 2018: 12-110-2 (16 targets)
--Week 17 2018: 3-15-0 (4 targets)
--Wild Card 2018: 5-52-0 (7 targets)
--Divisional Round 2018: 5-50-0 (8 targets)
--Week 1 2019: 5-54-0 (7 targets)

I had done analysis in this thread over the summer, projecting Ertz in between his 2017 and 2018 numbers. But I hadn't looked closely enough at how his numbers (both actual production and targets) dropped as 2018 progressed. Combine that with a Week 1 opener that was very similar to how he ended 2018, and there's certainly room for concern, for those expecting another huge season. The caveat to this is that Wentz was QB only for the first game in the above-mentioned stretch, so that's certainly worth considering.

 

I think that's a very important caveat!  It's kind of cherry picking a set of data that isn't really relevant to the current situation.  With Wentz under center, Ertz has always been fed.  This time period above also coincides with the acquisition of Golden Tate and them trying to work his short route game into the offense, another wrinkle that has now left town.  

I'm not projecting a career best for Ertz or anything, but I also think there isn't a lot of relevance to that data set in predicting how he'll be used this year.  At any rate, a TE that consistently averages 7-8 targets a game in a high scoring offense with a high end QB, will easily put up top 3 fantasy TE numbers.  If Week 1's stat line included a TD then everyone would be back-patting themselves on a good draft choice.

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