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Matt Breida 2019 Outlook

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He's building on his 2018 season by already picking up his first injury of 2019:

 

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I kinda like Breida as a buy low. Yes, he's an injury risk, but every RB is an injury risk. Mckinnon and Coleman are both good players, but they're complimentary backs. Breida is the only guy I see succeeding with the early down role. Dude averaged 5.3 YPC last season. 

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I kinda like Breida as a buy low. Yes, he's an injury risk, but every RB is an injury risk. Mckinnon and Coleman are both good players, but they're complimentary backs. Breida is the only guy I see succeeding with the early down role. Dude averaged 5.3 YPC last season. 

 

EVERY ball carrier does well in this offense if your metric is ypc

Mostert= 7.7

Breida=5.3

Wilson=4

Morris=4

Jusczk =4

 

The o-line is the reason why the Niners run the ball effectively and  I would rank breida #3 with coleman on the team because he can catch better than Breida and run better than mckinnon. 

Breida  has the edge in playing in the system but that can quickly be overcome with better production. I think it's a mess with a crowded backfield such as this but given where they are all priced, mkinnon returnning from injury, breida constantly injured, i would take the flyer on coleman emerging as the rb to own

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21 minutes ago, dashoe said:

EVERY ball carrier does well in this offense if your metric is ypc

Mostert= 7.7

Breida=5.3

Wilson=4

Morris=4

Jusczk =4

In context, though.  Mostert averaged that on less than 35 carries.  Breida averaged over 5 with 153 totes.  

It's a shame this dude gets banged up like he does.  He's dynamite when he's on the field.

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

In context, though.  Mostert averaged that on less than 35 carries.  Breida averaged over 5 with 153 totes.  

It's a shame this dude gets banged up like he does.  He's dynamite when he's on the field.

 

yeah that's why i never use ypc as a defining metric it needs too much context.

 Either way the takeaway should be the niners have what should be a top 5 o-line with a healthy garrapolo running the offense and any rb ishanny puts on the field should be highly productive for fantasy. The situation trumps the talent in a shanny system

Edited by dashoe

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9 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

PPR fantasy points end of 2019 IMO:

 

JMcK

Tevin

Breida

 

Injury will define who wins this backfield in 2019.

If they're all healthy, I see it in the exact opposite order. But I'm an open McKinnon hater. 

I think Breida is the "starter", Coleman has a similar role to what he had in Atlanta, and McKinnon eats into Coleman's share of third downs and passing situations.

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This is looking like an RBBC and/or flip a coin situation, but one of these may be worth that $1 flyer, esp if (when) one gets hurt.

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On 5/23/2019 at 3:58 PM, JoeJoe88 said:

In context, though.  Mostert averaged that on less than 35 carries.  Breida averaged over 5 with 153 totes.  

It's a shame this dude gets banged up like he does.  He's dynamite when he's on the field.

?  He only missed one game last year.

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2 hours ago, bomont said:

?  He only missed one game last year.

He was in and out of several games last season. And I mean several. Trust me, I owned him all year and started him many weeks. He could’ve had a much bigger season. He basically had some type of injury every week. 

Edited by JoeJoe88
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Got it, thx for the info. And this is why you can't rely too much on stats :) 

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2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He was in and out of several games last season. And I mean several. Trust me, I owned him all year and started him many weeks. He could’ve had a much bigger season. He basically had some type of injury every week. 

x1000, I rostered him all season, had some good games on my bench, then when in my lineup, he'd roll up that ankle on his first carry and pull himself out of the game, had a lot of goose eggs from him 

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3 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

x1000, I rostered him all season, had some good games on my bench, then when in my lineup, he'd roll up that ankle on his first carry and pull himself out of the game, had a lot of goose eggs from him 

 

Maybe you're too busy watching him play and reading his injury updates and not just extrapolating stats across 16 games like you need to be. 

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4 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

x1000, I rostered him all season, had some good games on my bench, then when in my lineup, he'd roll up that ankle on his first carry and pull himself out of the game, had a lot of goose eggs from him 

I got Breida last year for a song and it looked like I had hit the jackpot after the first couple of weeks.  Then the dude didn't just get hurt almost every game after that, he literally almost got hurt on every play.

I will never, ever have him on my team again.

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11 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I got Breida last year for a song and it looked like I had hit the jackpot after the first couple of weeks.  Then the dude didn't just get hurt almost every game after that, he literally almost got hurt on every play.

I will never, ever have him on my team again.

 

But 5 YPC... SPREADSHEETS!! 

 

in all honesty I think this is JMcK year, but in a 3 headed committee things get very hairy. 

 

Like everyone always says if the price is right... I guess... 

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As a dynasty owner and a 2018 redraft owner of this guy, I definitely feel the sentiments shared by you guys already lol. It helps knowing I'm not alone! :D

 

Seriously though, despite his amazing talent of injuring something at seemingly every turn, there's a decent chance he gets traded this year and suddenly becomes relevant again. Supposedly the Eagles had some interest but didn't feel like paying the Niners' asking price of what is guessed to be a third rounder (who knows if that's true). Anyway, it does seem like an indication he might get moved when the opportunity arises, say after a camp injury somewhere. Since he's got an ADP circa early round 14 now or something in FFPC best balls, that could easily jump way up if he suddenly has a clear path to touches by replacing say a recently injured Dalvin Cook or some other zone scheme back. 

Granted, he'll probably get carted as soon as he rips off his first thirty yard scamper for his new team, but hey, it'd still mean he's amazing draft value as of this writing lol since we can technically trade him before that happens in week one (well, except for FFPC). 

 

PS- I admit this may be a silly thing to try to take advantage of since he might just wallow as depth for them all year too. But I guess that's a logical path to snaps too, just someone getting hurt in that backfield. Of course, lol again I admit, it very easily could be him who gets hurt.

Edited by jetfan1983

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Just to quickly update: I tried to pull the above logic on my friend whom I'm co-drafting a $250 FFPC best ball with, and he was like, "yea no." Lol. I guess I can't blame him. Pick 14.10. 

 

Edit: I just realized this response is not really appropriate for the topic, so to make this better... Despite the explosive games he had last year, I just didn't have to heart to fight for this guy with my friend at 14.10. Still, would it really be surprising if the Niners moved this guy to fill some need elsewhere on the roster when a good trade offer showed up? Not really, but as my friend said, McKinnon isn't exactly 100% nor Mostert, so it's possible they just hold on to Breida to cover their butts with the depth he provides, despite his injury proneness. 

Edited by jetfan1983

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14 minutes ago, jetfan1983 said:

 

 

Edit: I just realized this response is not really appropriate for the topic, so to make this better... Despite the explosive games he had last year, I just didn't have to heart to fight for this guy with my friend at 14.10. Still, would it really be surprising if the Niners moved this guy to fill some need elsewhere on the roster when a good trade offer showed up? Not really, but as my friend said, McKinnon isn't exactly 100% nor Mostert, so it's possible they just hold on to Breida to cover their butts with the depth he provides, despite his injury proneness. 

 

An NFL analyst recently projected that one of McKinnon, Coleman or Breida will be inactive on game days because the other two RBs, on the team, will always be active since one is the full back and the other plays special teams.   If that is correct, it seems it would be of value to trade one of them instead of wasting one every game. 

Edited by nine9s

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1 minute ago, nine9s said:

 

Analyst are projected that one of McKinnon, Coleman or Breida will be inactive on game days because the other two RBs will be active since one is the full back and the other plays special teams.   If that is correct, it seems it would be of value to trade one of them instead of wasted one every game. 

 

Right, agreed. Plus while Breida was obviously handpicked by this regime, he's also not really the greatest fit for what they want to do. I'm not entirely sure his pass catching is good enough for Shanny's liking though he did do pretty well with that in a smallish sample: 31 targets, 27-261-2 (9.7) is a lot better than people thought he was capable of. 

One other reason they might hold onto him though is he only costs 600K or something against the cap, so he's a very cheap hold given his talent and experience in the system. They might value that too much. On the other hand, it's the final year of his deal, so they may feel like cashing in on him for a 5th rounder or a position of need too.  

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4 hours ago, jetfan1983 said:

Seriously though, despite his amazing talent of injuring something at seemingly every turn, there's a decent chance he gets traded this year and suddenly becomes relevant again. Supposedly the Eagles had some interest but didn't feel like paying the Niners' asking price of what is guessed to be a third rounder (who knows if that's true).

Ending up in the horrible Eagles RBBC would be a downgrade even for Breida, to be honest, so I fully agree with your friend here :)

Right now Breida's best way to fantasy relevance is everybody else getting injured and him staying healthy. The first part I believe, the second part... not so much.

tumblr_m5bnpbvcwb1qcj1hao7_r1_250.gif

Edited by Boudewijn
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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Ending up in the horrible Eagles RBBC would be a downgrade even for Breida, to be honest, so I fully agree with your friend here :)

Right now Breida's best way to fantasy relevance is everybody else getting injured and him staying healthy. The first part I believe, the second part... not so much.

tumblr_m5bnpbvcwb1qcj1hao7_r1_250.gif

 

Plot twist: I took him when he fell back to 15.3 :D

 

I realize I do it to myself. I really do. But I dunno, I think the Eagles almost-trade in March did have some legs to it, so I'll just take that as an excuse to self-flagellate with Breida here. And I guess technically he's a good best ball RB when he's getting snaps, the ol' high ceiling, low floor guy any given week. No worries about timing him. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, jetfan1983 said:

 

Plot twist: I took him when he fell back to 15.3 :D

 

I realize I do it to myself. I really do. But I dunno, I think the Eagles almost-trade in March did have some legs to it, so I'll just take that as an excuse to self-flagellate with Breida here. And I guess technically he's a good best ball RB when he's getting snaps, the ol' high ceiling, low floor guy any given week. No worries about timing him. 

 

 

 

I highly doubt any team trades for him. But then again, no one saw Hyde being traded last year. 

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