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Matt Breida 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

This guy has round 3-4 value!!  

Whoa whoa.....let's not get carried away here.  Let's all remember who Matt Breida is: an especially fast and elusive pane of glass.  Even IF he's the 1A to coleman's 1B (less then 50/50 imo) and IF Jimmy G isn't terrible and tanks the offense (looking increasingly possible), you're gonna get Breida for approximately 20 snaps before he gets hurt.  RBBC concerns aside, Breida isn't more than a rd. 8-9 guy for me based solely on injuries.

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Breida might be a glass cannon, but he is better than anyone else on the roster at RB.

I can see the team trying to ride him if he gives then a spark.  Mckinnon is not viable at all at this point, and Coleman is not getting the yards.  I see Breida taking the majority of touches.

 

He will likely be KIA within 5 games because of his frail nature,  but until then he will be a good RB2

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4 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

and Coleman is not getting the yards.  I see Breida taking the majority of touches.

Breida’s career YPT is 5.6. Coleman’s is 5.4

More importantly, Coleman’s was 5.7 under Shanahan.

Coleman will also get the GL touches as he did under Shanahan when Freeman was there.

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Coleman has not shown he can get it done behind that line.  The reason Breida is the better pick is because he can make more out of nothing.

Alfred Morris was last years Tevin Coleman.  

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12 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Breida’s career YPT is 5.6. Coleman’s is 5.4

More importantly, Coleman’s was 5.7 under Shanahan.

Coleman will also get the GL touches as he did under Shanahan when Freeman was there.

 

I'm a Coleman owners and I don't believe this. Coleman has looked way too easy to talking. Anytime he's touched he goes down. Pretty sure he has the fewest yards after contact last yr of qualifying rbs and this preseason looks no different

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5 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

I'm a Coleman owners and I don't believe this. Coleman has looked way too easy to talking. Anytime he's touched he goes down. Pretty sure he has the fewest yards after contact last yr of qualifying rbs and this preseason looks no different

 

People were saying the exact same things about Alfred Morris last year. Alfred was the coaches guy, he is a 3 down back and will be a gem...blah blah,  

 Brieda is going to dominate touches and if he stays healthy he will surprise everyone.

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19 hours ago, joebaker23 said:

I’m honestly wondering if I should consider selling high in my league

Coleman owner is sending out offers, not good ones but I'm interested trying to get Samuel or Drake for him but not sure if thats possible.

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6 minutes ago, josheggers said:

Coleman owner is sending out offers, not good ones but I'm interested trying to get Samuel or Drake for him but not sure if thats possible.

 

You should get more then that. s--- I'd prolly be willing to trade Coleman for breida. Coleman looks bad imo

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11 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

I'm a Coleman owners and I don't believe this. Coleman has looked way too easy to talking. Anytime he's touched he goes down. Pretty sure he has the fewest yards after contact last yr of qualifying rbs and this preseason looks no different

That stat has been thrown around a million times in this thread. I wonder why. Don't key in on one noisy stat and ignore the rest. Don't ignore sample sizes either.

  • Yards after contact, like a lot of other stats, is noisy. If your first contact is followed by two or three defenders behind the first, that says a lot more than if your first contact is 10 yards downfield 1 on 1 with a safety.
  • Coleman was 12th for all RBs in 2018 in yards created per attempt. So this actually indicates that Coleman on average was adding value to his touches at an elite rate.
  • Coleman was actually more elusive than Breida in 2018 (29.2 for TC vs. 28.5 for MB).
  • Coleman's was 2nd for all RBs in 2018 for passer rating when targeted. His YAC/A is in the upper echelon of RBs.
  • Breida out-performed Coleman on a per-route basis, but Coleman out-performed Breida on a per-target basis. Primarily because the literal only other target in SF last year was Kittle. Coleman's targets will increase significantly, as he had 20% more targets/game under Shanahan than the last 2 years.
  • Coleman is big and fast, and typically falls forward pretty well. He excelled in goal line opportunities (4.7% TD rate vs. Breida's 2.6%) historically and had 11 TDs on just 149 touches the last time he played under Shanahan. That's a ridiculous 7.4% TD rate. Aka he scored every 13 touches.

 

Point being - stop looking at one cherrypicked, small-sample size stat. Coleman is big, fast, and electric, but lacks significant tackle breaking ability. He has really good hands and the last time he played with Shanahan, he consistently made LBs miss and ripped off massive chunks of yardage. Shanahan absolutely loves throwing to the backfield.

Give me the guy with the upper echelon passing talent and the goal line trust.

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1 minute ago, Ruut6 said:

That stat has been thrown around a million times in this thread. I wonder why. Don't key in on one noisy stat and ignore the rest. Don't ignore sample sizes either.

  • Yards after contact, like a lot of other stats, is noisy. If your first contact is followed by two or three defenders behind the first, that says a lot more than if your first contact is 10 yards downfield 1 on 1 with a safety.
  • Coleman was 12th for all RBs in 2018 in yards created per attempt. So this actually indicates that Coleman on average was adding value to his touches at an elite rate.
  • Coleman was actually more elusive than Breida in 2018 (29.2 for TC vs. 28.5 for MB).
  • Coleman's was 2nd for all RBs in 2018 for passer rating when targeted. His YAC/A is in the upper echelon of RBs.
  • Breida out-performed Coleman on a per-route basis, but Coleman out-performed Breida on a per-target basis. Primarily because the literal only other target in SF last year was Kittle. Coleman's targets will increase significantly, as he had 20% more targets/game under Shanahan than the last 2 years.
  • Coleman is big and fast, and typically falls forward pretty well. He excelled in goal line opportunities (4.7% TD rate vs. Breida's 2.6%) historically and had 11 TDs on just 149 touches the last time he played under Shanahan. That's a ridiculous 7.4% TD rate. Aka he scored every 13 touches.

 

Point being - stop looking at one cherrypicked, small-sample size stat. Coleman is big, fast, and electric, but lacks significant tackle breaking ability. He has really good hands and the last time he played with Shanahan, he consistently made LBs miss and ripped off massive chunks of yardage. Shanahan absolutely loves throwing to the backfield.

Give me the guy with the upper echelon passing talent and the goal line trust.

 

Breida had the #1 receiving grade on rb's last season so not sure why you think Coleman is the better pass catcher. Breida is faster on paper and looks much faster to the eye. Breida has some wiggle to go along with that. Before even hearing of the Coleman yards after contact stat I noticed he was immediately going down right away. I drafted Coleman, I hope he does well. I'd rather own breida at this point

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Breida had over 1000 all purpose yards last year, and over 5+ yards a carry.

And he did all that on one ankle.   Seriously this guy was injured and put up those numbers.     The fact that he is healthy should perk your ears up.

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I've always been a Coleman supporter but I'm starting to give up on him. Him and Freeman were both awesome in 2016 when the Atlanta offense was unstoppable, he put up solid numbers in 2017 when Freeman got hurt, but he was pretty pedestrian last year when he got the opportunity. He's got lots of speed for a pretty big back and is a solid receiver with good hands but he just doesn't seem to ever put up huge numbers. I feel like he has a nice floor but can't see him being a league winner under any circumstance. Brieda certainly seems to have more upside to me and is much cheaper, his tape from last year looked awesome.

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I'm an excited owner who thinks he got great value but man Sivaro, the amount of posts you've made talking him up just screams biased owner. 

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13 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Breida had over 1000 all purpose yards last year, and over 5+ yards a carry.

And he did all that on one ankle.   Seriously this guy was injured and put up those numbers.     The fact that he is healthy should perk your ears up.

Lol Coleman also have over 1000 all purpose yards last year, and a 4.8 YPC.

I think there will certainly be balance to this backfield but there is absolutely zero objectivity in this thread at this point.

Good luck all. Only time will tell.

My official predictions are:

Coleman - 195/780/9 and 40/480/3

Breida - 170/730/3 and 30/270/1

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20 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

Breida had the #1 receiving grade on rb's last season so not sure why you think Coleman is the better pass catcher. Breida is faster on paper and looks much faster to the eye. Breida has some wiggle to go along with that. Before even hearing of the Coleman yards after contact stat I noticed he was immediately going down right away. I drafted Coleman, I hope he does well. I'd rather own breida at this point

He explained it in his post.

Breida had more yards per route bc he was targeted on a higher percentage of the routes he ran. Coleman, on the other hand, had more yards per target. That guy's reasoning is that Coleman is a better pass catcher bc he gets more yards every time he is targeted than Breida does (Coleman was 2nd in the league in this metric). He also thinks that the reason Breida had greater yards per route was that his biggest competition for targets was Kittle, so if he ran a route, he had a high likelihood of getting the ball. Meanwhile, Coleman had to compete with everyone on the Falcons so there were more times he ran a route without getting the ball, which brings down his average.

 

It's like if they each ran 10 routes and Breida had 7 targets/catches for 70 yards and Coleman had 3 targets/catches for 60 yards. In this scenario, Breida would have 7 yards per route and 10 yards per target/catch (more stats); Coleman would have 6 yards per route and 20 yards per target/catch (more productive). Who is the better receiver?

 

One thing that goes against this argument is: if Breida had less competition for targets, then defenses could dedicate better defenders to cover him, which would lead to decreased yards per target.

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Just now, claptondecheeks said:

He explained it in his post.

Breida had more yards per route bc he was targeted on a higher percentage of the routes he ran. Coleman, on the other hand, had more yards per target. That guy's reasoning is that Coleman is a better pass catcher bc he gets more yards every time he is targeted than Breida does (Coleman was 2nd in the league in this metric). He also thinks that the reason Breida had greater yards per route was that his biggest competition for targets was Kittle, so if he ran a route, he had a high likelihood of getting the ball. Meanwhile, Coleman had to compete with everyone on the Falcons so there were more times he ran a route without getting the ball, which brings down his average.

 

It's like if they each ran 10 routes and Breida had 7 targets/catches for 70 yards and Coleman had 3 targets/catches for 60 yards. In this scenario, Breida would have 7 yards per route and 10 yards per target/catch (more stats); Coleman would have 6 yards per route and 20 yards per target/catch (more productive). Who is the better receiver?

 

One thing that goes against this argument is: if Breida had less competition for targets, then defenses could dedicate better defenders to cover him, which would lead to decreased yards per target.

Thanks man. Didn’t feel like re-explaining that when I thought my post already did.

Breida had good numbers last year as a pass catcher that were dwarfed by Coleman under Shanahan in 2016. They are both above average RBs and will be used a lot but I tend to believe Shanahan will use Coleman in a way that’s much more conducive to fantasy.

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29 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I'm an excited owner who thinks he got great value but man Sivaro, the amount of posts you've made talking him up just screams biased owner. 

 

I am proud to say you are right.

I even had this guy last year, and he lost me many weeks.  I still think he is value this year.  We will see, but I have drafted him in several leagues.

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Prediction:  Breida 215 Carries 1,100 yards 45 receptions 400 yards and 9 total TD's.  Coleman 140 Carries 550 yards 30 catches 300 yards and 6 total TD's

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7 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

Prediction:  Breida 215 Carries 1,100 yards 45 receptions 400 yards and 9 total TD's.  Coleman 140 Carries 550 yards 30 catches 300 yards and 6 total TD's

 

Is this a serious post?

Because I love it!

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8 minutes ago, GOAT-dell Beckham said:

Rename this thread the Matt Breida fan club because y’all are discounting the living s--- out of Tevin Coleman 

Coleman has his moments, but Breida makes things happen when all seems lost unlike Coleman.  

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7 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

Coleman has his moments, but Breida makes things happen when all seems lost unlike Coleman.  

This is just blatantly untrue. Coleman averaged more yards created than Breida last year and they basically have the same yards per touch for their careers. But ok.

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19 minutes ago, GOAT-dell Beckham said:

Rename this thread the Matt Breida fan club because y’all are discounting the living s--- out of Tevin Coleman 

He looks like crap so far

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