CooL

Amari Cooper 2019 Outlook

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Looks like this guy doesn't have a thread yet? 

He's disappointed before, and been up and down, but after going to Dallas in week 9, he put up 53/725/6 on 75 targets.  The 725 yards was 9th in the league during that time.  Clearly Dak's favorite target.  Gone is Cole Beasley.  Enter Randall Cobb.  And the return of Jason Witten. 

I'm bullish on him in PPR and would take him with a high 3rd round pick.  Just hope that the contract demands and squabbling doesn't cause him to lose focus and torpedo his season.

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19 minutes ago, CooL said:

Looks like this guy doesn't have a thread yet? 

He's disappointed before, and been up and down, but after going to Dallas in week 9, he put up 53/725/6 on 75 targets.  The 725 yards was 9th in the league during that time.  Clearly Dak's favorite target.  Gone is Cole Beasley.  Enter Randall Cobb.  And the return of Jason Witten. 

I'm bullish on him in PPR and would take him with a high 3rd round pick.  Just hope that the contract demands and squabbling doesn't cause him to lose focus and torpedo his season.

 

I hadn't really thought of him tbh but didn't notice where his ADP was. For sure on my radar if he stays there. 

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53 minutes ago, CooL said:

Looks like this guy doesn't have a thread yet? 

He's disappointed before, and been up and down, but after going to Dallas in week 9, he put up 53/725/6 on 75 targets.  The 725 yards was 9th in the league during that time.  Clearly Dak's favorite target.  Gone is Cole Beasley.  Enter Randall Cobb.  And the return of Jason Witten. 

I'm bullish on him in PPR and would take him with a high 3rd round pick.  Just hope that the contract demands and squabbling doesn't cause him to lose focus and torpedo his season.


The problem with those stats is that more than half the yards and 5/6 of the TD's came in 2 games.   He was a fantasy dud in 3 or 4 of those games.


That being said, all that was done after changing teams mid-season.   With a full off-season and working with Dak, I think he's got a great shot at consistently putting up WR1 weeks.   And always the weekly upside as the #1 WR.

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Love this guy this season. He should be fire esp in a contract year. 

Personally I've got him WR 7. Thats over the likes of AB,Evans,Allen,Green,and Hilton. 

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I dont necessarily mind him at his current ADP, but i like Hilton and Keenan Allen a lot better- the two players just ahead of him.   If that sweet spot opens up where those guys are gone, and Cooper is still there, maybe?    I feel like he's got a wide range of outcomes, good or bad, which is kinda like the Dallas Cowboys overall, no?

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50 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I dont necessarily mind him at his current ADP, but i like Hilton and Keenan Allen a lot better- the two players just ahead of him.   If that sweet spot opens up where those guys are gone, and Cooper is still there, maybe?    I feel like he's got a wide range of outcomes, good or bad, which is kinda like the Dallas Cowboys overall, no?

 

agreed on TY and KA. we'll also see drafts where Mike Evans slips, AJG slips, etc. current ADP (half-PPR) has amari cooper in the middle down there.

in looking at late-late 2nd all the way to early 4th, i'd take all of these WRs before cooper without hesitation:

Mike Evans

TY Hilton

Adam Thielen

AJ Green

Keenan Allen

 

cooper is currently after Keenan Allen at 3.11:

Amari Cooper

 

out of the these WRs going after cooper, i like diggs, i like edelman, and i like the rams WRs, but i'd probably go RB (DFreeman) in the 3rd over all of these guys except Diggs...

 

Stefon Diggs

Brandin Cooks

Robert Woods

Cooper Kupp

Edelman

Golladay

cooper will be volatile and his floor will not be secure. maybe the upside helps here. maybe zeke's 2-game suspension helps (?).

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For me, grouping as follows

Evans

  1. Hilton
  2. Allen
  1.  
  2. Green
  3. Thielen
  4. Cooper
  5. Cooks

 

The rest all below Cooks by a bit.  Diggs probably leads that next tier, but i find myself in mocks just skipping it.   If Cooks is there, i take him, if not, i wait a little and hope for Lockett

 

  1.  

 

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Dallas has never been better than a bottom third passing offense with Dak at the helm, and I don't see why that will change this year.

In 2018, the only pass catcher from the bottom third of passing offenses that hit 1000 yards was Boyd.

In 2017, the only pass catcher from the bottom third of passing offenses that hit 1000 yards was AJ Green.

In 2016, the only pass catchers from the bottom third of passing offenses that hit 1000 yards were Kenny Britt, Terrelle Pryor, Landry, and Greg Olsen.

None of these players were WR1s, and if any of them were selected at where Cooper is going right now (WR13, 36th overall) they would be disappointing. It's not like Dak has never been paired with a strong top dog WR either, he had Dez for two seasons after all. 

There's a whole host of guys around Cooper's ADP that are very talented on what should be excellent statistical pass offenses, so I see no reason to buy Cooper, especially considering that the bulk of his stats will come from the random occasional monster game. 

I'd clearly prefer:

Allen, Diggs, Thielen, AJ Green, Cooks, Kupp, Woods, Watkins, Edelman, Godwin

All guys who are key figures in offenses that project as high passing volume

He's in the range of:

Landry, Ridley, Lockett, Boyd, DJ Moore, Fuller, Golladay

Top options on meh pass offenses or 2nd options on good but not great pass offenses

He's clearly ahead of:

Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, Kirk, Pettis, Sutton

Other 1st or 2nd options on equally bad pass offenses or young unproven guys.

Edited by MJJ28
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I wonder how much psychology that monster Thanksgiving Day game had on his ADP.   Casual folks probably have that one standing out a bit in their minds- he had two long TD's a few minutes apart, right when we're all drunk and fed well. 

He had a couple beast games and some meh ones, but that personally doesn't worry me.  I thought it was clear he's a WR1 there in the playoffs, and they'll have a full offseason with very little change to that roster.   Targets should be aplenty.  Not necessarily Hopkins level or anything crazy, but he'll be a part of every game plan

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The ceiling on cooper is 

1. The QB

2. DAK

3. The QB named Dak

4. Dak is the QB

 

Dak has to learn how to put the ball where the wr will be rather than throwing to the wr when he sees him open.

Amari is too good at creating separation for Dak to hold onto the ball waiting until he sees that he is open, it give the defense the time needed to make a play on the ball rather than Amari taking one in for a td.

Edited by dashoe

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You guys have TY ranked entirely too low. Or I have him ranked entirely too high. I'm ok with either; but I have him as WR2 on the year. Certainly ahead of all the dudes being discussed in the thread.

Edited by dmb3684

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Hilton's a bargain right now, no doubt.   On FFC his ADP has actually gone down recently.........been getting him in mid to late third sometimes.   I'm sure that'll correct itself

My favorite 1-2-3's are getting a top 4 back, Evans, and Hilton.   

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Hilton's a bargain right now, no doubt.   On FFC his ADP has actually gone down recently.........been getting him in mid to late third sometimes.   I'm sure that'll correct itself

My favorite 1-2-3's are getting a top 4 back, Evans, and Hilton.   

 

TY will end up at the back end of the second.

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Something to keep in mind about Coop:

 

This dude is still only 24 years old. He's only 6 months older than Calvin Ridley. Isn't it possible that he's just now coming into the beginning of his ascent? 

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29 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Something to keep in mind about Coop:

 

This dude is still only 24 years old. He's only 6 months older than Calvin Ridley. Isn't it possible that he's just now coming into the beginning of his ascent? 

 

it's not an age factor, skills factor, talent factor. . it's a QB factor that  he needs to get to consistent elite  production.

Is Dak that QB?🤷‍♂️

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

it's not an age factor, skills factor, talent factor. . it's a QB factor that  he needs to get to consistent elite  production.

Is Dak that QB?🤷‍♂️

Come on, seriously? You can't tell me Dak is a considerably better QB than Carr.

I do buy the age/experience factor, but I also think the Raiders were an absolute dumpster fire, and while the Cowboys aren't great, at least they appeared to have ambition, and Zeke is a top RB. Maybe Coop was simply more motivated.

(Or the trade reminded him he needed to start shining).

Makes you think what Belichick or Reid could have done with the guy if he'd been with them from day one.

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13 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Come on, seriously? You can't tell me Dak is a considerably better QB than Carr.

I do buy the age/experience factor, but I also think the Raiders were an absolute dumpster fire, and while the Cowboys aren't great, at least they appeared to have ambition, and Zeke is a top RB. Maybe Coop was simply more motivated.

(Or the trade reminded him he needed to start shining).

Makes you think what Belichick or Reid could have done with the guy if he'd been with them from day one.

I don't think I made a comparison of Dak vs Carr being the better QB.  . .👋

My point is you have to ask if Dak is the QB  who  can provide Cooper with elite fantasy production.  So far Dak has never elevated any of his pass catchers to consistent elite fantasy production and you can debate if it's him the talent around him or the coaching.

Dak+ carr both have issues as QB's.

The biggest issue I find with Dak is he doesnt make anticipation throws to give his pass catchers the best opportunity for success, he holds onto the ball until he SEE's the pass catcher open before he throws, which allows the defense to make a play on the ball or limit potential gains.

Both Dak+ carr are also hesitant on throwing deep and jump  balls with confidence because in my view they don't want turnovers on passes that have a high percentage of failure.

Neither of them wake up in the morning feeling dangerous. . .🤣

Edited by dashoe
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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

bla

So you agree with me, and you waste 6 sentences on agreeing with me. 

Well done :)

giphy.gif

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

it's not an age factor, skills factor, talent factor. . it's a QB factor that  he needs to get to consistent elite  production.

Is Dak that QB?🤷‍♂️

I understand questioning Dak. He's far short of a prolific passer. The real question is: does it matter? 

 

Cooper switched teams midseason. No offseason program. No OTAs. No practices or preseason games. Zero chemistry with Dak, and an entirely new playbook. 

 

In that time, Cooper was WR8. Now he gets the full off season program. 

 

I imagine the big knock on Cooper is going to be that he posted four games with 6 or less fantasy points. While that is concerning, the targets are there for improvement. Also, to put those duds in perspective, Michael Thomas had 3 games under 6 in that same stretch, yet I doubt anyone questions him like Cooper. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

So you agree with me, and you waste 6 sentences on agreeing with me. 

Well done :)

 

 Actually didnt agree with you because i didnt state dak or carr was the better QB. . . 🤣and I currently don't have a view on who is the better QB since they both dont elevate their pass catchers and instead focus on not making turnovers. 

What I like about Amari's situation is the volume potential he lacked under gruden+carr and currently Dak is the obstacle on cooper getting consistent elite production. We know garrett+romo made dez and witten and murray elite fantasy producers. . .still waiting on garret+Dak 

In summation . . .the jury is still out 🤓

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31 minutes ago, dashoe said:

What I like about Amari's situation is the volume potential he lacked under gruden+carr and currently Dak is the obstacle on cooper getting consistent elite production. We know garrett+romo made dez and witten and murray elite fantasy producers. . .still waiting on garret+Dak 

In summation . . .the jury is still out 🤓

 

I thought the volume potential was supposed to be one of the big factors making amari look awesome last year preseason. Crabtree left and john grudens number 1 reciever has almost always been fantasy relevant. Things were said like "Gruden will scheme amari 7 targets a game". 

And since jared cook led the team with receptions (68) and yards (800ish) shouldnt the volume potential have been pretty high already. Not to mention all the hype about john grudens number 1 wrs.

"Over the 10 years Gruden coached his WR1 averaged 135 targets and 78 catches for over 1000 yards and 8 TDs."

Not to mention the raiders lost alot so they got to throw alot and carr passed for over 4k yards and dak never has and the dallas defense kept games close or held leads allowing dallas to pound it.

I'm not sure If the ceiling target potential is actually greater in dallas because However I'm sure the floor target potential is higher in dallas. Dak will force targets to a triple cover amari. 

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31 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I thought the volume potential was supposed to be one of the big factors making amari look awesome last year preseason. Crabtree left and john grudens number 1 reciever has almost always been fantasy relevant. Things were said like "Gruden will scheme amari 7 targets a game". 

And since jared cook led the team with receptions (68) and yards (800ish) shouldnt the volume potential have been pretty high already. Not to mention all the hype about john grudens number 1 wrs.

"Over the 10 years Gruden coached his WR1 averaged 135 targets and 78 catches for over 1000 yards and 8 TDs."

Not to mention the raiders lost alot so they got to throw alot and carr passed for over 4k yards and dak never has and the dallas defense kept games close or held leads allowing dallas to pound it.

I'm not sure If the ceiling target potential is actually greater in dallas because However I'm sure the floor target potential is higher in dallas. Dak will force targets to a triple cover amari. 

Yes i thought his volume on Raiders would be massive which was why I drafted him as my wr2 last season and that was a  complete miss because his week to week target share was negligible and inconsistent.

I like his target share potential on Dallas with Beasely  gone, hurns a flop, gallup learning and cobb an injury away from missing multiple games. 

zeke limits the amount of extra pass coverage the defense can put on amari and Amari literlly is one of the best NFL wr's in creating space. Dak just needs to consistenly deliver him the ball where he can maximize his yac's.

Dallas is definitely a better team for him to play on than the raiders

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Yes i thought his volume on Raiders would be massive which was why I drafted him as my wr2 last season and that was a  complete miss because his week to week target share was negligible and inconsistent.

 

I loved him last year too. Missed him in the draft so immediately after I offered a "low ball" trade of cooper kupp, big ben, and matt brieda for him in a 2qb league. Got rejected. Got pretty lucky in that one.

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21 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I understand questioning Dak. He's far short of a prolific passer. The real question is: does it matter? 

 

Cooper switched teams midseason. No offseason program. No OTAs. No practices or preseason games. Zero chemistry with Dak, and an entirely new playbook. 

 

In that time, Cooper was WR8. Now he gets the full off season program. 

 

I imagine the big knock on Cooper is going to be that he posted four games with 6 or less fantasy points. While that is concerning, the targets are there for improvement. Also, to put those duds in perspective, Michael Thomas had 3 games under 6 in that same stretch, yet I doubt anyone questions him like Cooper. 

 

And don't underestimate the impact of the change in QB coaches.  Kellen Moore had zero coaching experience and very little game experience.  Supposedly, he's got a great football mind.  But imo, knowing x's and o's doesn't translate into being able to identify a specific position's weakness and being able to properly convey to the player how to fix the problem.

Kitna has already said the right things as far as what Dak needs to work on.  Footwork being a major one.   I think Dak will take a step forward this year.  He may never be elite but even some minor improvements will go a long way to Cooper's fantasy output. 

 

 

Edited by K197040

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