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Amari Cooper 2019 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I have him a bit lower at 70/1000/6, but I'm quite careful. Your numbers are certainly not impossible.

So right in the middle then, 80/1100/7? Lol. I mean I think that is inline with his ADP or at least close enough that he shouldn’t be a bust per say. Mid third I’m okay with. 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I have him a bit lower at 70/1000/6, but I'm quite careful. Your numbers are certainly not impossible.

I think yours are more likely, but a lot of that depends on how much Witten still has left in the tank

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The inconsistency is the issue.  I'd rather just take Cooks in the 4th rather than Cooper in the 3rd.  It's the same thing.

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WR AMARI COOPER, DALLAS COWBOYS

OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 1-9: 69.8
OVERALL GRADE FROM WEEKS 10-17: 79.8

A poor 2017 season and a mediocre start to 2018 had some people wondering if we’d ever see another dominant season from Amari Cooper, but a trade away from Oakland changed things for the former first-rounder. Plagued by inconsistent targets in Oakland, Cooper was finally able to get into a groove in Dallas and averaged over eight targets per game. He improved his yards per route run average from 1.39 to 2.22 and his passer rating when targeted from 94.0 to 127.5.

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On 6/14/2019 at 8:21 AM, Impreza178 said:

Big season coming.   If I can nab him in third I’d be sooooo happy 

I think getting him in the third is perfect. Cooper is super talented. Hopefully with the new staff, a year getting comfortable with his new team and a better QB will bring out his best. I do think his ceiling is capped like Dak's because they have a good D and run the ball. I think 85 catches for 1200  yards and 8 TD's sounds about right. I don't think he'll be much worse and I do think he could exceed those numbers.

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If Zeke Elliott's holdout extends into the season and through a good portion of the season, look out.  Though that's unlikely, if it does happen the Cowboys will be passing often and Cooper will be the main beneficiary.

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I've never been a fan.  His games on the Cowboys were filled with bizarre fluke TDs that helped his overall numbers. He had a 90 yarder, 75 yarder, a 40 yarder, and still averaged his lowest yards per catch of his career. He isn't as bad as was in Oakland, but he isn't in my top 15.

 

 

That doesn't even delve into the QB situation and if Zeke holds out how the defenses will key in on him.  He is a 800/6 guy to me.

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9 hours ago, Sternes said:

I've never been a fan.  His games on the Cowboys were filled with bizarre fluke TDs that helped his overall numbers. He had a 90 yarder, 75 yarder, a 40 yarder, and still averaged his lowest yards per catch of his career.

I counted only really 2 flukey ones - 1 a defender fell, 1 was a funny ball bounce. 

But looking at the game logs with Dallas, I see two monster games and a depressing stat line otherwise: just one TD and esp those last three games were pathetic. Same with Raiders, two big games and squat otherwise. Has he always been so streaky? 

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I hated this guy on Oakland, but the cowboys are using this guy like a true #1 wr. Even with Dak I think he's one of the safest picks at wr after the elite guys are gone

Edited by scheibler
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1 hour ago, bomont said:

I counted only really 2 flukey ones - 1 a defender fell, 1 was a funny ball bounce. 

But looking at the game logs with Dallas, I see two monster games and a depressing stat line otherwise: just one TD and esp those last three games were pathetic. Same with Raiders, two big games and squat otherwise. Has he always been so streaky? 

 

1) Good.

2) Good.

3) Fluke. Corner falls down, and the safety runs to protect the sideline (???????) instead of the center of the field.  I have no idea what he was doing.

4) Fluke. Good catch for 20 or so yards, surrounded by 3 defenders, corner goes for strip, other guys stand around and he just....runs away.

5) Good.

6) Debateable. Good catch, but another go route 5 minutes later and the safety is jogging over to help and the corner just gives up during the catch.

7) Fluke. Deflection into his hands.

 

5 of his TDs came in those two games, against secondaries that seemed to be made of players from local rec leagues. 

 

Outside of those two games he racked up TDs against PHI and WAS, he had one other catch that went for 20 or more yards while on the Cowboys. That catch was also against Philly.

 

In his 9 games in Dallas he had 725 yards and 6 TDs. He had 397 yards and 5 TD in the two big games against Philly and Washington. He had 328 yards and 1 TD in the other 7 games for Dallas. 

Edited by Sternes
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Cooper's a guy that once you have him for a year, he'll be on your "do not draft" list every year after that.  He's too much of a headache to deal with the inconsistencies, even when he went to the Cowboys.  Last year he got everyone hyped up because of the huge week 14, then went on to put up duds in what would be the semi-finals and championships for most people.  I'd much rather have a guy like Robert Woods who will be much more consistent and is going a full round later.

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Big year coming.    

Hold onto your past Rayduhs grudges at your own peril.....

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5 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Big year coming.    

Hold onto your past Rayduhs grudges at your own peril.....

Or your Cowboy dreams  ;)  I suspect he will continue to be streaky.

I also noticed something looking at game logs: he tends to fade in the second half of the season, with a lot of so-so if not outright bad games bunched around 1 or 2 big ones.

Add that Prescott has never been an amazing passer, and I think Cooper is just not worth his cost.

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5 hours ago, bomont said:

he tends to fade in the second half of the season

Except for last season of course.

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Not really. Note what Sternes and I pointed out or check his game logs. Two big games and mostly jack otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, bomont said:

Not really. Note what Sternes and I pointed out or check his game logs. Two big games and mostly jack otherwise.

 

Mid-season trade, I think he acclimated rather well to be honest. With a full off season and training camp he should be fully incorporated and comfortable in the offense and hopefully he establishes a nice trustworthy connection with Dak.

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3 minutes ago, bomont said:

Not really. Note what Sternes and I pointed out or check his game logs. Two big games and mostly jack otherwise.

Are you kidding? I dont like amari much, but he was VERY SOLID.

5-58-1

6-75-0

3-36- bad game

8-180-2 

8-76-0

10-217-3

4-32-0- 11 yards rushing- bad game

4-20- bad game

Week 17- They rested their starters, but he still had 5-32

Playoffs

7-106

6-65-1 td

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Are you kidding? I dont like amari much, but he was VERY SOLID.

5-58-1

6-75-0

3-36- bad game

8-180-2 

8-76-0

10-217-3

4-32-0- 11 yards rushing- bad game

4-20- bad game

Week 17- They rested their starters, but he still had 5-32

Playoffs

7-106

6-65-1 td

 

 

 

 

Week 17 is fine to count, but doesn't matter for fantasy.  The playoffs you shouldn't count.  Three bad games to finish the year isn't exactly "very solid".

 

Why did you omit his first 6 games?

 

Week 1 - 1-9-0

Week 2 - 10-116-0

Week 3 -  2-17-0

Week 4 - 8-128-1

Week 5 - 1-10-0

Week 6 - 0-0-0 (injury in 1st half IIRC)

 

Anyone who has followed him over the years knows he is boom or bust.  He had single digit yardage in multiple games in 2017, then busted out for a 210 2TD performance, then disappeared again.  He has also had a massive issue with drops.

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55 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Are you kidding? I dont like amari much, but he was VERY SOLID.

5-58-1

6-75-0

3-36- bad game

8-180-2 

8-76-0

10-217-3

4-32-0- 11 yards rushing- bad game

4-20- bad game

 

I misread his logs on this, it wasn't as bad as I thought, pardon on that and thanks for correcting me. Still, 3 out of 8 games (nearly half) that sucked is cause for some concern or at least tempered enthusiasm IMO. Maybe it's just he's on a new team and all that. But as has been pointed out, he has a history of streakiness.

Edited by bomont

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2 hours ago, Sternes said:

Why did you omit his first 6 games?

 

uhh probably because he went to an entirely new team, with an entirely different offense.   

 

2 hours ago, Sternes said:

5-58-1

6-75-0

3-36- bad game  AMARI ONLY SAW 5 TARGETS.  DAK THREW A BUNCH TO ZEKE THIS GAME, 8 TARGETS AND ZEKE HAD 7 REC FOR 79 YARDS

8-180-2 

8-76-0

10-217-3

4-32-0- 11 yards rushing- bad game  WHOLE GAME WAS AWFUL AND DAK REALLY SPREAD THE BALL AROUND A LOT THIS GAME TOO, 8 DIFF PASS TARGETS

4-20- bad game BAD GAME STAT WISE BUT HE WAS NOT REALLY NEEDED.  COWBOYS REALLY DOMINATED A s---y BUCS TEAM THAT FUMBLED AND DEF SCORED A TD AS WELL, OFFENSE JUST DIDN'T HAVE TO DO MUCH TO WIN

Week 17- They rested their starters, but he still had 5-32

Playoffs

7-106

6-65-1 td

 

 

Some context added to his bad games.  Also, even truly elite WR's have a couple stinkers each year 

For example in 2018:

Julio Jones: 2/18/0 and 4/28/1 

Deandre Hopkins: 3/50/0 and 4/36/1 

Michael Thomas: 4/47/0, 4/48/0, 5/40/0, and 5/29/0

 

Now, is Amari at the same level as those guys when he has an average or good game?  No, not quite.  He's spiked a few times though to levels that blow away games from all three of these guys though, so it's certainly possible he could do it --- the key is consistency.  

When you factor in he was coming to a new team mid-season, and he only had 3/11 games that were bad, 6/11 that were solid, and 2/11 that were outstanding, I think a full off season with an improved Dak, a better OC, a better healthier line, and better WR's around him - he's a no brainer for WR1 level numbers. 

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3 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Week 17 is fine to count, but doesn't matter for fantasy.  The playoffs you shouldn't count.  Three bad games to finish the year isn't exactly "very solid".

 

Why did you omit his first 6 games?

 

Week 1 - 1-9-0

Week 2 - 10-116-0

Week 3 -  2-17-0

Week 4 - 8-128-1

Week 5 - 1-10-0

Week 6 - 0-0-0 (injury in 1st half IIRC)

 

Anyone who has followed him over the years knows he is boom or bust.  He had single digit yardage in multiple games in 2017, then busted out for a 210 2TD performance, then disappeared again.  He has also had a massive issue with drops.

Insanely bad takes. You can't count his first 6 games with the raiders, because that gives NO context to how he will do with the cowboys in 2019. The two playoff games were with the team and when they in must win mode and does give insight to how he will do in 2019. 

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4 hours ago, Sternes said:

He has also had a massive issue with drops.

 

70% catch rate last year, but I guess the key word here is HAD. ;)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoopAm00.htm

 

Otherwise I agree that Cooper is streaky but not to a point where I wouldn’t draft him. Just pair him with some more consistent producers to even it out.

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