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Marlon Mack 2019 Outlook


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Going to have to say , if anything Mack will see more carries than before, and catch more dump passes from Brisset.  The O line did not retire, and they are top 5 in the league.   I cannot see this guys value going down.  I do not think people are seeing this correct.  He is in his 3rd year, with not competition for the No 1 job, he has a fantastic O-Line and will be seeing lots of volume.

 

He is 6' and 210 lbs and only 23 years old.

 

What am I missing here?  Brisset is not a hopeless QB, he has some talent as well so I do not see the 8 man box that Barkley saw.  ( HE STILL SUCCEEDED)

I am taking Mack early rather than not. 

Edited by Sivaro
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yes.  the kid is a flat-out better runner than Mack - case closed. 

Can we stop jynxing this guy? Thanks. 

what kinda perverted voooodoooo medicine they practicing over there? BOOT? ON THE SHOULDER??!?!!1?

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The Colts seemed to throw a lot in the red zone last year, in part because they could trust Luck to make a sound decision to pass it into the end zone, but also because it made their franchise cornerstone's numbers look brighter than they already were. He ended up with 39. With Brissett, I envision they'll take a safer route and try to pound it through their impressive line on 1st and 2nd virtually every time inside the 5.

I drafted Mack at the beginning of the 4th in a 12 man standard league about 3 hours before the Luck news broke. When I heard the news, I was kicking myself for taking him over the other RBs that I was debating that were available (Jacobs, Henry, Montgomery), but after thinking more into it, I feel a lot better about it. Mariota and Carr are known quantities as below average to bad QB's on this league. They both play on run of the mill teams that will struggle with game flow. Trubisky has been very run of the mill so far, but he does have upside to improve. Brissett is no more than marginally worse than any of these guys, and I'd say he has a chance to be the best one behind that line with the scheme and weapons at his disposal. 

Frank Gore was RB19 in 2017 under a woefully inexperienced Brissett in an outdated Chuck Pagano offense and a worse defense. Assuming Mack plays 14 games, I see that as his floor.

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6 hours ago, Sivaro said:

Going to have to say , if anything Mack will see more carries than before, and catch more dump passes from Brisset.  The O line did not retire, and they are top 5 in the league.   I cannot see this guys value going down.  I do not think people are seeing this correct.  He is in his 3rd year, with not competition for the No 1 job, he has a fantastic O-Line and will be seeing lots of volume.

I posted the following in the Ebron thread, I think it applies here too:

TL/DR; I agree that Mack will be fine, maybe even gain a bit.

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I hope everyone is right that he isn't deserving of a downgrade. I used the Luck retirement as an opportunity to negotiate Mack's price down and bought him for $25 (12.5% of auction budget) with a week left until our keeper league auction.  Seems like good value for an RB2.  Could end up being great value if the Luck-less colts surprise people this year.  

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18 hours ago, Sivaro said:

Going to have to say , if anything Mack will see more carries than before, and catch more dump passes from Brisset.  The O line did not retire, and they are top 5 in the league.   I cannot see this guys value going down.  I do not think people are seeing this correct.  He is in his 3rd year, with not competition for the No 1 job, he has a fantastic O-Line and will be seeing lots of volume.

 

He is 6' and 210 lbs and only 23 years old.

 

What am I missing here?  Brisset is not a hopeless QB, he has some talent as well so I do not see the 8 man box that Barkley saw.  ( HE STILL SUCCEEDED)

I am taking Mack early rather than not. 

 

11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I posted the following in the Ebron thread, I think it applies here too:

TL/DR; I agree that Mack will be fine, maybe even gain a bit.

 

Was thinking the same way. A slight bump for him IMHO. 

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1 hour ago, greatestmetfan said:

So what are your guys thoughts, are you starting him week 1, or taking the wait and see approach to see how things play out?

 

I am starting him, no doubt at all.

I am expecting them to try and control the clock and keep the game close.   So he should get run.  I am also expecting some dump passes to go his way. I am watching very carefully for his usage in that part of the offense ( Hines is a problem)  .  Reports are Mack worked on that part of his game, we shall see.   

But, Yes, he is weekly start for me until proven otherwise.   I am not as down on him as many are and expect the Colts to lean on him to give Brissett the time he needs to develop.

 

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Got him at pick #48, cheers!

 

Lookng at Colts under Brissett in 2017, Gore had 261 attempts for 961 yards + 26 receptions for 234 yards and 4 TDs total. He finished as #29 in PPG and #19 overall. And that was with arguably the worst OL in the league. The colts averaged around 16 PPG for RBs that season.  This year, the Colts are a top 3 OL, so I would say that's his floor.

 

Last year Mack was on pace for 1200 rushing + 150 receiving and 13 TDs total. 

 

So, I expect somewhere between 1200 total yards and 1400 total yards this season with 7 TDs and 25 receptions. 

 

Assuming 1300 yards, 25 receptions, 7 TDs = 184 total fantasy points in 0.5PPR. This is good enough for RB14 last year. 

 

Mack is currently being drafted as RB24. 

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat
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2 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Love that he's the RB4 on my team :D

 

I tried to estimate with some numbers above your post. There is no way he sohul be going below Henry, Gordon, or Ingram, maybe even Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery. What's a good argument for Josh Jacobs over Mack?

 

Both have a 3rd down back. Colts have a good OL while Raiders have a poor one. Both have a stud WR1 and decent WR2. You could argue the Colts TEs are their #2 receivers whatever. Raiders have a better QB sure but Jacoby isn't htat bad. He was put into a bad spot with a poor OL 1 week before thee season. 

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2 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

I tried to estimate with some numbers above your post. There is no way he sohul be going below Henry, Gordon, or Ingram, maybe even Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery. What's a good argument for Josh Jacobs over Mack?

 

Both have a 3rd down back. Colts have a good OL while Raiders have a poor one. Both have a stud WR1 and decent WR2. You could argue the Colts TEs are their #2 receivers whatever. Raiders have a better QB sure but Jacoby isn't htat bad. He was put into a bad spot with a poor OL 1 week before thee season. 

 

I agree with you.  Thankfully Jacobs is also on my roster 🥰

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1 minute ago, The Cam's Pyjamas said:

Also my RB4, taken with pick 59. I think TY went even later. Here’s hoping Brissett isn’t a complete potato.

 

Yeah, got him at pick 58.  Absolutely insane to grab a potential workhorse at that price.  People were loading up on WR2's and satellite backs at that point.

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2 hours ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

I tried to estimate with some numbers above your post. There is no way he sohul be going below Henry, Gordon, or Ingram, maybe even Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery. What's a good argument for Josh Jacobs over Mack?

 

Both have a 3rd down back. Colts have a good OL while Raiders have a poor one. Both have a stud WR1 and decent WR2. You could argue the Colts TEs are their #2 receivers whatever. Raiders have a better QB sure but Jacoby isn't htat bad. He was put into a bad spot with a poor OL 1 week before thee season. 

Jacobs is a much better talent.

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1 hour ago, abc12345 said:

This guy is going to be a steal. No Luck = Ground and Pound, more goal-line carries and more TDs. Year 2 of the revamped Colts O-Line with a generational Guard paving the way (Nelson)

How do you feel about him week 1? Chargers have a tough front

 

im thinking about Coleman or White instead of him in my rb2 slot. PPR

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