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michaelai3

Lance Lynn 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

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7 IPs in the last 4 of 5, top 15 in strikeouts in the AL. Two starts next week against SEA (5/27) and KC (6/1).

Mike Minor seems to have found his former self with the Rangers, can Lynn do the same?

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I picked him up for his last start, and after looking into his previous starts and scheduled starts to come, I decided to buy-in. The Minor detail also intrigues me.

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Lynn has 6 straight Quality Starts.

9 of his 13 starts have been QS.

Next up is BOS, but they are very good vs RHP.

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1 hour ago, Bobby Blue said:

Lynn has 6 straight Quality Starts.

9 of his 13 starts have been QS.

Next up is BOS, but they are very good vs RHP.

Past 6 starts: .297 era, .266 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, .330 BABIP, 11.21 k/9ip

People forget that he was a pretty good pitcher before 2018

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I remember him quite well with STL. He was always a quality starter for most of his time there, or so it felt that way.

I've been holding onto him. I don't know if BOS is an ideal start, but after that matchup, he gets CLE at home. Which is a nice one. 

He's also been quite the workhouse, topping 110 pitches a number of times this year.

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He still strikes people out, but awful ballpark for pitching that's only going to get worse as the temperature rises.  Plus, he switched to a much tougher league and he has some really tough match-ups coming up.  You'd have to be desperate or foolishly reckless to consider him as anything more than an occasional streamer with K upside.  

I picked him up last week and he will be starting every game for me for the foreseeable future.  

Edited by Overlord
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2 minutes ago, Overlord said:

He still strikes people out, but awful ballpark for pitching that's only going to get worse as the temperature rises.  Plus, he switched to a much tougher league and he has some really tough match-ups coming up.  You'd have to be desperate or foolishly reckless to consider him as anything more than an occasional streamer with K upside.  

I picked him up last week and he will be starting every game for me for the foreseeable future.  

 

Hahaha. Genuinely laughed out loud at the last line.

I've had him for his last 5 QS I want to say. Maybe even all 6. He had 2 straight games of 10 SO or more, and has had a few of 7 and 8. He is more of a streamer, but I also don't know if I'd want to expose him. His matchup after BOS is pretty tasty.

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1 minute ago, Overlord said:

He still strikes people out, but awful ballpark for pitching that's only going to get worse as the temperature rises.  Plus, he switched to a much tougher league and he has some really tough match-ups coming up.  You'd have to be desperate or foolishly reckless to consider him as anything more than an occasional streamer with K upside.  

I picked him up last week and he will be starting every game for me for the foreseeable future.  

 

I don't think so. Underlying stats tell me he is pretty much like Robbie Ray, with a few ticks lower in K/9. 

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2 minutes ago, michaelai3 said:

 

I don't think so. Underlying stats tell me he is pretty much like Robbie Ray, with a few ticks lower in K/9. 

 

Edit: I misread your post. Can you post comps? I would be very interested to see them. He is a player I waffle on dropping, but in a deep league, I think he'd be scooped up ASAP. I would love to see the similarities to Ray.

Edited by nlm

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10 minutes ago, nlm said:

 

Edit: I misread your post. Can you post comps? I would be very interested to see them. He is a player I waffle on dropping, but in a deep league, I think he'd be scooped up ASAP. I would love to see the similarities to Ray.

 

Every time I try to paste stats here it looks like s---. I just pulled his stats and Ray's stats side by side on Fangraphs. Ray is more effective with his offspeed pitches (mainly slider)......probably why he has a higher K/9.

            FIP  xFIP  HR/9 BABIP

Ray   3.19  3.6     .83      .328

Lynn  3.17  3.95   .79      .345

Edited by michaelai3
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Lynn had another QS today. For QS leagues, he is 10/14 in that regard.

He has pitched a lot better than his ERA would indicate. Strikeout numbers are very solid, and he's becoming a bit of a workhorse.

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Should be owned in 10 team leagues. He's definitely better than a streamer.

2 bad starts have actually inflated his numbers. He's been mostly unbelievable all season.

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He’s one of the top 5 in the league in pitches per game and will likely be one of the rare workhorse pitchers that hits 200 innings. His fastball is averaging 94.87 mph, which is the fastest it has been since October 2012.

He’s in a groove.

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What's going on here, is he throwing another pitch more frequently than usual?

And as fawkes_mulder mentioned above, his velo is the best it's been in a long time

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Over the last 30 days, he's 2nd in FIP, and has a 7.00 k/bb to boot

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7 ip, 6 hits, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k

Pick him up

 

He's also ranked 3rd in pitchers per start (behind Bauer and Scherzer). I love guys like this; vet pitchers who find another gear. They'll often throw a lot of pitches and won't be babied as the season wears on

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He also gets CWS next time out. Should be owned in 12 teams for sure.

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1 hour ago, street sharks said:

7 ip, 6 hits, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k

Pick him up

He's also ranked 3rd in pitchers per start (behind Bauer and Scherzer). I love guys like this; vet pitchers who find another gear. They'll often throw a lot of pitches and won't be babied as the season wears on

Yeah I'd call him the Anibal Sanchez of this season.  Well except Anibal has started pitching lights out again like he did in the second half last year.  So two vets with no innings limitations pitching great these days had for free in most leagues on the waiver wire.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah I'd call him the Anibal Sanchez of this season.  Well except Anibal has started pitching lights out again like he did in the second half last year.  So two vets with no innings limitations pitching great these days had for free in most leagues on the waiver wire.

 

Lynn has been consistently good (omitting last year). Anibal Sanchez is an enigma. 

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17 minutes ago, michaelai3 said:

Lynn has been consistently good (omitting last year). Anibal Sanchez is an enigma. 

Anibal was great last half of last year so together they make a good mash-up ace.

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Anybody want to know who is the AL leader in WAR (and only 2nd to Max Scherzer overall) among pitchers?

Lance Lynn! 3.3

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I’m loving Lance’s resurgence. Not like it came out of nowhere though, the talents always been there. He got a little roughed up last outing but most of the damage came in the first inning. Great poise to finish another 6 after that. 

Edited by KidDynamite420
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I love this guy.  The only thing that concerns me is GLP during June-August turns into a launching pad.  He made it through June.  Hope it continues for him.

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based on this season I am drafting all 30 year old pitchers next season who worked on their stat cast stuff.

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