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Darren Waller 2019 Outlook

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There are some serious problems here. I don't think it's so much that opposing defenses are taking him out of the game, it's that the Raiders are developing an offensive identity that isn't what we expected earlier in the season. This was expected to be a joke team that was always losing in the second half, and would require lots of quick short passes from Carr (who is bad under pressure), and we thought he had nobody else to throw to after AB flamed out.

It's not really going that way. The Raiders D is pretty legit. The Raiders are not always losing in the second half. They have a good O-line and a solid run game, and the other receiving options are stepping up. Far from the 3-4 win team we expected at the start of the season, this now looks like a better-than-mediocre team that might sneak into the wildcard round (where they'll be promptly eliminated).

Waller had one bad drop that could have added another 2 points to his fantasy total, but that wasn't really the issue. The pick-six, followed by a long Chargers drive, kept the Raiders' offense off the field for nearly a full quarter. Jacobs was picking up the first downs and scored the winning TD. Renfrow made a few nice catches. They didn't really need Waller.

I don't know if the targets are going back up rest-of-season.

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The Raiders might have a game where Waller busts loose again (CIN, NYJ, KC, TEN, JAX, LAC remaining), but he’s not gonna dominate targets anymore. Said it last week & got laughed at, but he’s gonna be a mid-range TE1 ROS. He had someone running with him the entire game last night in some type of zone matchup scheme, so Renfrow was targeted when finding open spaces. Waller is definitely still a top-6 TE, just need to dial down the expectations 

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2 hours ago, lvsaint429 said:

The Raiders might have a game where Waller busts loose again (CIN, NYJ, KC, TEN, JAX, LAC remaining), but he’s not gonna dominate targets anymore. Said it last week & got laughed at, but he’s gonna be a mid-range TE1 ROS. He had someone running with him the entire game last night in some type of zone matchup scheme, so Renfrow was targeted when finding open spaces. Waller is definitely still a top-6 TE, just need to dial down the expectations 

Anyone who laughs at this just isn’t watching the games & is in denial. They will be the first ones bitching every week Waller doesn’t have 5-70-1 🤦‍♂️

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I think he's missing Tyrell more than we realized. When Tyrell was out, it's obvious Waller is the best Raiders target is, so defenses are gonna take him out of the equation. Once Tyrell gets going again, I think he'll be ok

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18 minutes ago, street sharks said:

I think he's missing Tyrell more than we realized. When Tyrell was out, it's obvious Waller is the best Raiders target is, so defenses are gonna take him out of the equation. Once Tyrell gets going again, I think he'll be ok

 

Tyrell played last night. And the Sunday before that. And the Sunday before that.

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20 minutes ago, street sharks said:

I think he's missing Tyrell more than we realized. When Tyrell was out, it's obvious Waller is the best Raiders target is, so defenses are gonna take him out of the equation. Once Tyrell gets going again, I think he'll be ok

He had his best game of the season when Tyrell was out.

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6 hours ago, jagsfan05 said:

 

Tyrell played last night. And the Sunday before that. And the Sunday before that.

 

And how well did he play? Until someone else steps up, defenses are going to key in on Waller

Edited by street sharks

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16 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

And how well did he play? Until someone else steps up, defenses are going to key in on Waller

I think the real answer explaining his decline is the evolvement of the Raiders offense.  Jacobs and Renfro are getting more targets.  Jones as well.  Combine that with them running more translates into less targets for Waller.  Sucks but I think that’s what’s happening.  He should still have some great games but I think we’re done seeeing Carr using him as a security blanket.

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He's a TE2 ROS. He won't crack 15 points again this season but if you want to buy into sunk cost by all means continue to start him over streamers which have an actual chance at finishing the week as a TE1

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3 minutes ago, BadMoon said:

He's a TE2 ROS. He won't crack 15 points again this season but if you want to buy into sunk cost by all means continue to start him over streamers which have an actual chance at finishing the week as a TE1

I don’t buy that.  He stil gets some deeper looks.  He’s got a better chance to finish top 12 than any streamer.

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17 minutes ago, BadMoon said:

He's a TE2 ROS. He won't crack 15 points again this season but if you want to buy into sunk cost by all means continue to start him over streamers which have an actual chance at finishing the week as a TE1

Silly take. Waller is the top TE on a team that has heavily involved the TE position since Gruden has been the HC. Last season Jared Cook was a fantasy star after years of all hype and no production. Waller is a similar story, albeit younger and different circumstances.

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

I think the real answer explaining his decline is the evolvement of the Raiders offense.  Jacobs and Renfro are getting more targets.  Jones as well.  Combine that with them running more translates into less targets for Waller.  Sucks but I think that’s what’s happening.  He should still have some great games but I think we’re done seeeing Carr using him as a security blanket.

exactly. Waller is basically Doyle now. They do not need the production from him anymore at all. They have found their identity. Sell if you still can

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I picked up Everett for the home stretch. Hopefully Waller can be the PPR dream again but for now he rides the bench.

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14 minutes ago, bakes781 said:

I picked up Everett for the home stretch. Hopefully Waller can be the PPR dream again but for now he rides the bench.

Agree.  I think Everett, Goedert, Hock, or Fant should be available in most leagues and any of them would be good insurance for Waller-no-longer-a-baller.

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The Lions absolutely schemed him outta the game the past week and it allowed looks to everyone. SD not so much, it was a disappointing game for DW.

Going forward I expect Gruden (who has been highly impressive with his game calling this year) will find variation routes for Waller to run and have him doing things that are not on tape yet. The good part is that they don't have an alpha WR or anything close. Jacobs really does look awesome, so teams are gonna be prepping mostly for him and if Carr can take advantage there will be some shot plays down the seam when safeties are cheating up and bite on the play action.

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22 minutes ago, Maroney's Bolgna said:

Suck a fickle bunch on this forum...

Fickle?  I don't think so.  This is about being honest and not being blind to early season returns.  He's caught 2, 2, and 3 balls the last 3 games.  8 targets against Houston but only 2 catches and the day was saved by a late TD.

I don't think anybody is talking about dropping him, that would be foolish.  But what's wrong with a little concern especially at the most crucial part of the season before playoffs?  What's wrong with thinking about alternatives?  The stupid thing to do is to blindly plug him in week in and week out without any regard to what seems to be happening in Oakland and their offensive philosophy.  Hunter Renfroe has caught 14 balls in the last 3 games, he's clearly become a go-to target for Carr and it was even mentioned on the broadcast.  If things continue as they are, you would be foolish to not pay attention and just put Waller into the lineup because he's supposedly a top 5 ROS guy.

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On 11/8/2019 at 6:00 AM, Godeep said:

He will get back to normal soon, teams aren’t winning when scripting him out, they’re going to have to pay more attention to the WRs and RB. 

Agreed

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I believe the NFL in general has devalued the TE position almost to the level of FB in some cases. For that reason I really don't like rostering more than 1. I will give Waller until fantasy playoffs to get right. It's rare to find a TE that got the kind of target share he was getting so I may have to resort to hoping for a TD as is the case for most TEs.

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On 11/8/2019 at 7:00 AM, Godeep said:

He will get back to normal soon, teams aren’t winning when scripting him out, they’re going to have to pay more attention to the WRs and RB. 

 

i think teams do focus on the RB ... matter of fact, Jacobs is prolly the #1 priority of every DC planning for da Raihhhdahhhz.  

and, let's face it ... TyWilly gets attention, and has been all season - now, Jones and Renfrow are nice complementary pieces, but they aren't keeping opposing CBs up at night. 

 Wallerus is THE gamebreaking piece to this offense - cat been out that bag for awhile 🤷‍♂️

 

 

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

i think teams do focus on the RB ... matter of fact, Jacobs is prolly the #1 priority of every DC planning for da Raihhhdahhhz.  

and, let's face it ... TyWilly gets attention, and has been all season - now, Jones and Renfrow are nice complementary pieces, but they aren't keeping opposing CBs up at night. 

 Wallerus is THE gamebreaking piece to this offense - cat been out that bag for awhile 🤷‍♂️

 

 

Everyone knows the week the majority of us bench him, he's going to go off. 

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Mark Andrews Just had a 6 catch 2 TD game against a broken down Bengals linebacking core and secondary. No excuses here for Waller not to have a big game in this one. 

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If Waller doesn't have a good game vs. Cin this week then I will seriously consider dropping him.  But I expect him to break his slump this week.

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