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bjvance5

Adrian Sampson 2019 Outlook

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SP for Texas. Just went 7IP with 11K and 0BB against KC. Has strung together 4 consecutive decent starts. Did quick research and most recent article on FG listed him as one of the top improvers in fastball performance from 2018 to 2019. Increased velocity from 91MPH in 2018 to 93MPH in 2019 and spin from 1981 in 2018 to 2071 in 2019. I’m skeptical but something I’ll be monitoring for deeper leagues. 

Edited by bjvance5
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His schedule doesn’t look terrible at first glance, but he’s had some tough situations to pitch in. Faced PIT and SEA each back to back, which is difficult. Got blown up by Houston twice. Outside of Houston and the second games of those back to backs, he’s looked pretty good. There was a random dud against Oakland as well. Definitely keep an eye on him in deeper leagues. I think the 11 K’s is an outlier though. 

 

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**whispers quietly**

 

He also has RP eligibility.  I've been plugging him in there the past month in a points league. 

🤫

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9 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

His schedule doesn’t look terrible at first glance, but he’s had some tough situations to pitch in. Faced PIT and SEA each back to back, which is difficult. Got blown up by Houston twice. Outside of Houston and the second games of those back to backs, he’s looked pretty good. There was a random dud against Oakland as well. Definitely keep an eye on him in deeper leagues. I think the 11 K’s is an outlier though. 

 

 

Agree about 11 K's being an outlier. Only 10% swinging strike which correlates highly to K%. While his fastball velocity has improved, it is still a worse pitch than last year in terms of pitch value according to fangraphs. The changeup is worse, as well. O-swing only at 29% so he isn't fooling anybody. Unless he changed something within this season, like in the last 3 starts, nothing to see here except in AL only or deep leagues.

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next 2 starts are vs. oakland and boston...then he lines up to face cleveland, white sox, and tigers after the next 2 landmines

Edited by ASHLANDARROWS1992

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9 hours ago, lassetjus said:

 

Agree about 11 K's being an outlier. Only 10% swinging strike which correlates highly to K%. While his fastball velocity has improved, it is still a worse pitch than last year in terms of pitch value according to fangraphs. The changeup is worse, as well. O-swing only at 29% so he isn't fooling anybody. Unless he changed something within this season, like in the last 3 starts, nothing to see here except in AL only or deep leagues.

 

It should be pointed out he threw 5, 6, and 11 strikeouts in the last 3 games. He had one game in the previous 10 with 5 strikeouts. To be fair, only 4 of those starts went at least 5 or more innings. Only 1 got 5 strikeouts. In his last 3 games, all were at least  5 or more innings and all were more than 5 strikeouts.

Edited by Sternes

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Are we buying in that he's as good as he's been lately or just on a nice run ?

 

His minors numbers didn't really jump out at me and honestly never heard of him until earlier today heh. Was curious what some of you guys think going ahead. 

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Given the recent success of Minor, Lynn and even Jurado, Im starting to think that pitching coach, Julio Rangel is onto something.

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2 hours ago, Gryfter said:

Given the recent success of Minor, Lynn and even Jurado, Im starting to think that pitching coach, Julio Rangel is onto something.

You are not wrong. I find it interesting bums like Minor and Lynn have had successful seasons so far.

Then you look at both Sampson and Jurado who have both been solid as of late.. and you may be right.. you may begin to question how much of this is on their pitching coach.

I guess the question is.. is Sampson and Jurado both worthy of a waiver pick up? both are sitting on my WW.. understandably so.

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5 hours ago, tonywow said:

Are we buying in that he's as good as he's been lately or just on a nice run ?

 

His minors numbers didn't really jump out at me and honestly never heard of him until earlier today heh. Was curious what some of you guys think going ahead. 

 

Last 5 starts, he gave up 3 ER once, and the other 4 games he gave up 1 ER in each.  He is striking out more people, walking less.  Guy can slot into your RP spot as well.  I'm not sure what else there is to wait on.  If he continues to breakout you missed out by waiting.  If he starts sucking, you have a short leash to cut him because he was free. Plus, he has a cool last name.

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8 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Last 5 starts, he gave up 3 ER once, and the other 4 games he gave up 1 ER in each.  He is striking out more people, walking less.  Guy can slot into your RP spot as well.  I'm not sure what else there is to wait on.  If he continues to breakout you missed out by waiting.  If he starts sucking, you have a short leash to cut him because he was free. Plus, he has a cool last name.

I hear you there. Just tough with so many good young SPs popping up this year, can't roster them all. It's like trying to catch all the Pikemon this season. Be interesting to see how he throws in these next two starts. It does seem like Tex is surprisingly a good place to be for SPs of all ages how Sampson, Lynn, Minor, and others are dealing.

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11 minutes ago, tonywow said:

I hear you there. Just tough with so many good young SPs popping up this year, can't roster them all. It's like trying to catch all the Pikemon this season. Be interesting to see how he throws in these next two starts. It does seem like Tex is surprisingly a good place to be for SPs of all ages how Sampson, Lynn, Minor, and others are dealing.

 

All very true.  Obviously dependent on roster, league size, and settings.  Not saying he is going to have Giolito breakout.  Of course most people by coming in this thread probably need pitching help.  The RP eligibility is very useful in most leagues which elevates his status even if he is an average starter.  Lot of guys I see in my leagues (though they are deeper) with a lot worse numbers and without that flexibility rostered. If someone is waiting still for another month of good performance, they are going to wait too long to snag him.

 

Edit: Fantrax blurb I just saw because he is on my roster:

The 27-year-old picked a great time to deliver his first career complete game, as Joe Palumbo had given the Rangers only four innings in the matinee in his big-league debut and taxed the bullpen. After a shaky introduction to the rotation Sampson has now won five straight starts, posting a dazzling 1.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 30:3 K:BB through 31.2 innings over that stretch, and he'll look to keep rolling in his next outing Thursday in Boston.

Edited by Sternes
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5 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

All very true.  Obviously dependent on roster, league size, and settings.  Not saying he is going to have Giolito breakout.  Of course most people by coming in this thread probably need pitching help.  The RP eligibility is very useful in most leagues which elevates his status even if he is an average starter.  Lot of guys I see in my leagues (though they are deeper) with a lot worse numbers and without that flexibility rostered. If someone is waiting still for another month of good performance, they are going to wait too long to snag him.

 

Edit: Fantrax blurb I just saw because he is on my roster:

The 27-year-old picked a great time to deliver his first career complete game, as Joe Palumbo had given the Rangers only four innings in the matinee in his big-league debut and taxed the bullpen. After a shaky introduction to the rotation Sampson has now won five straight starts, posting a dazzling 1.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 30:3 K:BB through 31.2 innings over that stretch, and he'll look to keep rolling in his next outing Thursday in Boston.

I'm a Sox fan, will definitely be fun watching that game. I'll be sure to let anyone who can't watch the game what the eye test sees if he doesn't throws a decent game.

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Can't deny that his run of late has been fairly impressive, especially for somebody that nobody would have really been paying attention to, although the next matchup is really rough.

Even though somebody said not to, I'm still taking a wait and see approach.  Honestly, he's had 4 easy matchups out of his 5 start win streak, with the first start against St. Louis being mediocre (and even the second Seattle one too).  His last two starts have been great, but still, I'm waiting. He goes out there and does good against Boston in Fenway, and then he has my full attention.

Edited by KilloWertz

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15 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Can't deny that his run of late has been fairly impressive, especially for somebody that nobody would have really been paying attention to, although the next matchup is really rough.

Even though somebody said not to, I'm still taking a wait and see approach.  Honestly, he's had 4 easy matchups out of his 5 start win streak, with the first start against St. Louis being mediocre (and even the second Seattle one too).  His last two starts have been great, but still, I'm waiting. He goes out there and does good against Boston in Fenway, and then he has my full attention.

Yeah. I mean, i dont disagree with the poster who is encouraging to make a move now. Unfortunately, my league has a max number of moves per season. I have to be careful with them.. it is not just a matter of picking up and dropping with no potential roster issues down the road.

I am looking at both Sampson and Jurado.. i wanna add both.. will probably hold on Sampson though and see how he does v Boston. If he is still available, i will pounce. If not.. my loss.

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2 hours ago, jonninho said:

You are not wrong. I find it interesting bums like Minor and Lynn have had successful seasons so far.

Then you look at both Sampson and Jurado who have both been solid as of late.. and you may be right.. you may begin to question how much of this is on their pitching coach.

I guess the question is.. is Sampson and Jurado both worthy of a waiver pick up? both are sitting on my WW.. understandably so.

 

57 minutes ago, jonninho said:

Yeah. I mean, i dont disagree with the poster who is encouraging to make a move now. Unfortunately, my league has a max number of moves per season. I have to be careful with them.. it is not just a matter of picking up and dropping with no potential roster issues down the road.

I am looking at both Sampson and Jurado.. i wanna add both.. will probably hold on Sampson though and see how he does v Boston. If he is still available, i will pounce. If not.. my loss.

 

That depends on your team but you already mentioned your league has a set number of moves allowed per season; you dont have to luxury to add then drop if it doesnt work out. That tells me you should have more time to act than other regular leagues where people are add/dropping almost every day. 

 

As for Jurado or Sampson, I went with Sampson; better numbers the last 5 games coming off a CG.

 

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I feel like Sampson is like dynamite just waiting to blow up.  His opponents are hitting .283 against him so far this season but he keeps finding ways to get it done.  One of these games I'm afraid it's all going to work against him.  I'm watching, but not quite ready to make the dive.

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6 hours ago, cizastro said:

I feel like Sampson is like dynamite just waiting to blow up.  His opponents are hitting .283 against him so far this season but he keeps finding ways to get it done.  One of these games I'm afraid it's all going to work against him.  I'm watching, but not quite ready to make the dive.


Your not wrong. The BA against is ridiculously high to sustain such value... although we can not dismiss that he has found something and turned it around the last few starts and that moving forward that BA against will continue to move down to respectability.

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4 hours ago, ghostdragon said:

maybe I'm In the minority but I think he can handle the red Sox this week.. and leaning toward starting him

I would love to hear more on why you think he will be fine vs the Red Sox.. if you want to elaborate? or is this merely a gut feeling?

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12 hours ago, cizastro said:

I feel like Sampson is like dynamite just waiting to blow up.  His opponents are hitting .283 against him so far this season but he keeps finding ways to get it done.  One of these games I'm afraid it's all going to work against him.  I'm watching, but not quite ready to make the dive.

It's because he's not walking anyone. The guys who get on base get there by bat, but his OBPA over the last 30 days is right below .300. His K/BB, in the meantime, is slightly above 8. 

I'm intrigued. Have seen a bunch of analysis about how effective the slider has been this season against batters, and apparently Sampson's is pretty dang good. There might be more to his success than can be immediately shown in numerical data... but on the other hand... maybe less? Gonna think hard about streaming him this week and definitely will grab depending on how it goes if I haven't yet.

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Minor and Lynn are talented though.

Feels more like a Dan Straily with better command. Excellent secondary offerings and garbage fastball. That really seems to be the thing, his last 4 starts he's getting more whiffs off both his slider/change.

From a usage standpoint. It simply appears he is spamming the slider more this year. Especially with 2 strikes against BOTH right and left handed hitters. Progression in his Slider/Change. Hitters are smashing his FB to .338 BA with 7 HRs though.  The breakout of his secondaries have kept hitters off-balance, but how long will it last? He needs to keep pitching even more backwards to have a chance.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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3 hours ago, jonninho said:

I would love to hear more on why you think he will be fine vs the Red Sox.. if you want to elaborate? or is this merely a gut feeling?

It’s part gut feeling.. but it’s also the Red Sox hitters.. most have underachieved this year.. I mean they start chavis everyday.. a guy who can’t hit .. betts hasn’t been that great even.. the only hitter I’d be concerned with is maybe bogarts..and jd.. Benintendi hasn’t done anything.. Bradley has been quiet.   I’m just not that scared. Price might be on his game  and could be a pitchers duel. That could a problem.. but I still give Sampson a good 50 50 of getting the W. Red Sox are overrated in my book.

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5 hours ago, ghostdragon said:

It’s part gut feeling.. but it’s also the Red Sox hitters.. most have underachieved this year.. I mean they start chavis everyday.. a guy who can’t hit .. betts hasn’t been that great even.. the only hitter I’d be concerned with is maybe bogarts..and jd.. Benintendi hasn’t done anything.. Bradley has been quiet.   I’m just not that scared. Price might be on his game  and could be a pitchers duel. That could a problem.. but I still give Sampson a good 50 50 of getting the W. Red Sox are overrated in my book.

Xander, Devers, JDM, and JBJ have all been swinging a good stick recently.

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