Iron-cock

2019 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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7 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Being a physical freak of nature is also an interesting tidbit

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Yeah... I'm sure that's entirely natural and due to healthy breakfasts, but more importantly, can he run proper routes?

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It’s not possible to have 1.6% bf your organs would shut down.

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....probably has nothing to do with catching a football though.

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13 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

If what we liked about Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant had a child ... DK Metcalf 

rS4JsDRW_400x400.jpg

DK Metcalf has 1.6% body fat; Benjamin has a 61% fat body. It's almost the same, but there are subtle differences.

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24 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Justice Hill

@Iron-cock

 

Wow that got back to me faster than I was expecting, pick coming in a few...

Edited by Iron-cock

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39 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Wow that got back to me faster than I was expecting, pick coming in a few...

9Mwi8Ir.gif

BTW I'll be out for lunch in a bit, but I have my top-2 ready, should you not have fallen asleep yet.

Edited by Boudewijn
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On 7/16/2019 at 7:01 PM, FFCollusion said:

I Channeled my inner Berry during the down time.  If you don't care... that makes 2 14 of us.

Let me start off by saying this is the latest I've ever been to the party.  My Fantasy Football research, realistically, began Saturday Afternoon.  I dabbled a bit Friday evening, but have had zero interest or care in fantasy thus far.  While each passing year this draft is typically what forces my hand to start making decisions that matter, I always kept up on everything from Feb-July.  This year I did not.  This leaves a 6 month gap in my fantasy knowledge, which basically means I might as well be in my first year ever.  Thank god I got the 4 spot which meant I only had to research 4 players before I could cruise control to the 2nd round... I thought.

Normally after the fantasy season ends, I immediately make a ranking of as many players as I can, while the entire season , good and bad, is fresh on my mind.  People who I liked, didn't liked, who let me down, got injured, came on strong, fell off a cliff, or simply how the general population views a player, relative to my personal thoughts.  I... did NOT do that this year, which is truly unfortunate, because I genuinely believe it helps you eliminate so much off season noise that can persuade you to value players the way 'experts' do or how ADP data says to, and I despise that sheep mentality.

So when I opened up my ADP of choice, I set up 14 teams and checked standard, PPR, and Half point PPR only to realize... I don't know who these players are or who they play for.  Where the hell did Jay Ajayi go?  What happened to the Crow Show?  What team do the #1 WR and RB in the game play for now, because I don't see them on PIT anymore?!?!

 

Anyways, my general strategy has remained consistent for the past 4 or 5 years for better or worse.  I look at my draft spot, highlight every player I like to see what the likelihood of any of them aligning with my position in each round and try to roughly estimate what I expect to happen in the middle to late rounds of the draft and use that to help determine what would best suit my overall team for the early rounds, where more often than not the player values and quality are close enough that it really doesn't matter who you get, or what position they play, all that matters is who you avoid, and dodging any land mines or complete busts.  In the past I've called it Bottoms Up or 150-1, or some lame name in an attempt to be catchy, but it all boils down to the theory that I don't care if I get a top 5 RB or top 5 WR in the first round, nor if I get a top 10 WR or RB in the 2nd round, all that matters is I avoid a complete bust, and so if I know my middle-late draft picks are favoring RB, I'll lean WR early.  If I see my middle/late tendencies favoring WRs then I'm more likely to go RB early.  The same logic applies for flag players, sleepers, or whatever.  If you know there are 3-4 RBs late in the draft you've been keying in on every mock, then drafting 2-3 RBs in the first round, might not make as much sense.

After deciding a general guideline of what I'd like to do in a perfect draft (which will never occur (especially in this group) but whatever) I try to focus on QB and TEs and map a strategy.  They're typically the easiest players to snake draft around, because they're always so evenly spread out across every round evenly.  This allows you to roughly say "I'd take Mahomes if he's there in 3, if not I like the value of P.Manning in 6, and if neither of those happen, I'd be perfectly fine with Dick, Mary, and Jane in 10, 12, or 15.  Same exact mental flow chart for TEs.  If Kelce falls to me at 2 fine, if Kittle lasts until 4 cool, I'd really like Tony Gonzo in the 7th, if that doesn't work out I'll grab Aaron Hernandez in the 12th and I feel comfortable with that, but if worse comes to worst I'll stream JimBob and Cooter and see what happens.  This can be done with DEF as well.

Once that's out of the way, I can focus every other round on WR vs RB and create contingencies for each.  So, I look at the ADP and what do I see?  A ton of WR names I don't know, rookies I didn't research because I stopped playing Dynasty, and a ton of guys who switched teams, or QBs, yadda yadda yadda.  That made it pretty clear to me, I was going to want to get 2 or 3 WRs in the first handful of rounds, because I don't know enough to reliably play the lotto odds as of today.  I compare the WRs I like in each round, relative to my draft position.

Picking 4th gives me a solid opportunity to take the #1 WR, Anton... oh wait he's a Raider.  Well f---, who's the #1 WR then?  Hopkins, Adams, or M.Thomas are the consensus top 3, I do my diligence and it was a fairly easy decision for me, Hop is my #1 WR this year.  I have now made my first 'decision' of the fantasy season.  That's why I am in this league, because it forces me to care before my real leagues ever begin.  My rankings have officially started.

I do a similar analysis of the WRs in the 2nd and 3rd round.  Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, Thielen, Amari and the off chance someone like Evans or AB fall to me.  This looks like the money spot for my WR targets.  Plenty of names in that group that I would love to be my top 2 WRs and the RB options in the same spot are slim, with the only one worth consideration (imo at this time; subject to change) is Fournette.  I have zero interest in owning Damien, Chubb, Jones, or Mack.  I don't have a strong reason to justify it yet, but they don't move the needle for me so for the time being I can just ignore them and move on.


3.04 A.J. Green
2.11 Keenan Allen
Glancing down the board, it's easy to see I wanted to come out of the first 3 rounds with 2 WRs, maybe 3, and the 2/3 wrap had the ripest fruit.  I would have been ecstatic if AB fell to me, but I ended up getting 2 of the 3 guys I liked (Allen, Green, Hilton in that order).  Amari is a player who reinforces why I like to make rankings at the end of the season.  So much hype because of 'how amazing he was once he became a Cowboy' and 'Finished the season strong' but 1 look at his game logs and I was reminded that people were drastically blowing that out of proportion.  2 Amazing games, everything else seemed exactly like the guy he's always been.  More time, chemistry, whatever, I don't question his talent or ability in any way, but his production always seems to be lacking, perhaps just due to expectations too high.  At the 2nd round I was deciding between Hilton/Allen but Allen's upside seems higher and then I noticed Hilton's ankle woes and that made it an easy decision to just take Keenan, who incredibly somehow just turned 27, Hilton will be 30 this year.  That dropped TY down a notch and at 3 I was going to take whichever one of Hilton(Ankle) or Green(Toe) fell to me, or be sadly forced to choose between them.  Choice was made for me, which works out.  These guys both have injury risks, but when on the field are top 6-8 WRs in my opinion, and to have 2 of them in a 14 team league feels great 'on paper'.

1.04 Ezekiel Elliot
The first round was suppose to be the easiest.  Only 4 players to decipher, but that went out the window fast.  It seemed universal Zeke and Barkley would be the top 2 players off the board, I do have them in a tier of their own there as well.  After that, I don't think it's nearly as simple as everyone else is making it out to be.  CmC and Kamara are very similar and were my next stop for analysis, but I wasn't enthralled with either one.  After them you get to DJ and Melvin Gordon.  DJ is great but his injury history is far higher than people give credit because he's had some lucky timing, the Cardinals are a disaster of an offense, new QB, new HC... bleh.  So many variables, that's not really what I desire for the 4th overall pick.  I've never been a fan of Melvin Gordon, combined with the holdout, he wasn't even a consideration for me.  At this point, I'm thinking I'm going Hopkins all the way.  But then we get to Le'Veon Bell (who's dick I've been on for years now) and Gurley, last years undisputed #1 back in the game.  All questions and concerns are valid, I won't dispute that, but these guys are cream of the crop and talent wise are equals to Zeke/Barkley (and due to pass catching, I'd even say superior to Zeke for fantasy purposes).  I think these 2 are being slept on.  So much so that they were the key targets of wanting to trade down.  I'm not excited about a pick from 3~7 and if I could trade down, pay a cheaper price for Bell or Gurley, and pick up a 2nd/3rd round pick for it... I would have been all over that.

As fate would have it, all of my research was for naught, slitting hairs between CmC and Kamara was for nothing, deciding if I wanted to be the first one to shake up the ADP by just grabbing Bell or Gurley and saying fugggit.  And then this loveable knuckle-headed wookie-lookin' mother f---er fell in my lap, and it was an easy decision for me.  He's an idiot, exposing women in public, knocking security guards guards over, or getting suspended for 6 games because... hell I don't think they ever decided what he did but he's probably guilty.  Regardless this is fantasy football not moral heroes and he's an absolute monster.  Amari to open things up for the offense, Zeke actually averaged more carries, more yards, more TDs, more targets, more receptions, and more receiving yards, to the tune of 5, yes 5 more fantasy points PER game.  He's never 'paced' less than 1500 yards rushing in his 3 season career thus far.  Scoring only 9 TDs total last year screams progression to the mean.  I doubt anyone needs reasons to draft Zeke other than trust he doesn't do some dumb s--- and get suspended.

For what it's worth, I believe my RB rankings will look something like this given my research thus far:

Barkley, Zeke (T1)
CMC, Kamara...DJ? (T2)
Bell, Gurley (T3)

Then after that it's probably a lot of nit picking between Gordon, Mixon (T4) followed by Conner, Cook, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say Fournette for T5.  Williams, Chubb, Jones, and Mack just don't do it for me, but to be fair I haven't done my due diligence.  If I don't look for anything to like, I obviously won't find it, so they deserve some attention, but given my draft position I was able to cut those corners for the time being.

 

4.11 James White
5.04 Tarik Cohen

Had a strong feeling I would be getting 2 RBs here.  The only exceptions were unlikely to occur, but included Brandin Cooks falling, Andrew Luck, or maybe Aaron Rodgers.  This block of ADPs had names including an unlikely fall for Ingram or Carson and then expected options of Sony Michel, James White, Philip Linday, and Tarik Cohen.  I had to decide which NE RB I wanted and White seems like the safest and most predictable option.  I gave all of these backs a strong consideration but valued James White the most given the offense, loss of Gronk/Gordon/Hogan, and his role combined with last years 8th place finish among RBs.  Unlikely to repeat most of his stats, but White was 9th in Red Zone Targets (all positions) and 11th inside the 10.  He was 2nd in the league among RBs with 123 targets, only 1 less than Christian McCaffrey. Only 14 WRs had more targets than James White did last year.  3rd in RB receptions, 2nd in RB receiving yards, and put up an impressive 12 TDs.  All of these stats scream regression to the mean and I won't argue against that.  However on the other hand, Gronk, Hogan, and Gordon left a massive amount of Targets, Receptions, Yards, and TDs up for grabs.  Add that to the fact that Brady only thew 29 TD passes last year, which is near his lowest total in a decade.  (28 in '16 but in only 12 games, 28 in '09, and 25 in '13) 

After the wrap Sony and Lindsay were gone making it an easy choice.  Jordan Howard sucks, I repeated it ad nausea entering last year.  Cohen isn't a 3 down workhorse, but he could see a slight increase in touches, possibly a few more goal line looks, and was already RB13 last year.  He's just exciting to watch and fun to root for.  Backs like Cohen and White are regularly undervalued by many because they don't do things in a traditional way.  I understand it, but also like to take advantage if it makes sense.  Less touches, less competition, less hits, get the ball in space, less likely to get hurt, every catch is a free .5 points, are less effected by game script, and garbage time/2 min drills can be huge.

6.11 LeSean McCoy
7.04 Carlos Hyde

I was hoping Jared Cook would make it back to me here, I'm a fan and he rewarded me quite well last year for being willing to be fooled for the 7th time.  He did not however, nor did Aaron Rodgers or Jarvis Landry, all of which would have altered my strategy at that point in the draft.  With them gone, I was back to looking at RBs.  The group I was digging into this time, Hunt, McCoy, Hyde, Peterson, R.Jones.  McCoy doesn't inspire much confidence, but Buffalo seemingly has improved, made some interesting pick ups/draft picks, and a bounce back season could been in order, but Frank Gore will cap a lot of his upside, but it's a 14 team league with 2 flexes, and we're talking about the 36th RB off the board.

Hyde on the other hand, is someone I've been on the bandwagon for, for years now.  Top 10 in PPG in 2016 I strongly advocated for him as a top 10 back in '17 and was rewarded with his 8th place finish on a 4th/5th round investment.  I think he's incredibly talented but people tend to forget because his career started with a terrible injury and his hype died down before he ever really saw the field.  Last year looks terrible and I'm sure everyone remembers it that way... but what I remember is that the Browns sucked, went through a QB change early in the season, altered the offense, and for 5 weeks Hyde was great, week 6 he sh*t the bed, and then he was traded.  Through his first 6 weeks he was averaging:
19 carries, 63 yards, and .8TDs per game.  A season long pace of 304 carries, 1018 yards rushing, and 13 TDs, for 197 Fantasy Points, which would have ranked him 14th overall last year.  Gets traded to JAX and his season went down the drain.  Fast forward to 2019, Kareem Hunt leaves a massive opportunity on a great team, with an amazing rushing attack/system, and we get a competition with Damien Williams.  Might not really be a competition, but for 6 rounds cheaper and a back I believe in, in that situation I'm all aboard this ride.  Worst case scenario, he's one of the best handcuffs in the league.

8.11 Peyton Barber
9.04 Emmanuel Sanders

Barber isn't exciting be we're in the end of the 8th and we're talking about RB47 at this point, with potentially a starting job.  He's one of the last RBs on the board with a clear path to meaningful touches.
Sanders was a bit of a reach, but as stated I wanted someone I feel I can rely on in bye weeks, with some upside.  My first WR bye isn't until week 9 I believe so even if he;s not 100% week 1, it doesn't matter.  I feel more comfortable with him than middling rookies or WR2 or WR3 from alternate teams.  Had either Peyton or Sanders been gone, I was going to take a swing on Metcalf and/or N.Keal, both of whom went shortly after.  It appears many disapprove of the Sanders pick, understandable as Achilles are usually career enders, but I didn't think he would make it back to me, 3 back to back blurbs came out this week talking about being ready for week 1, and I expect his ADP to continually rise in the coming weeks, I didn't want to miss him, as I believe from here down is a large group of 'who knows', and at this time in the year I haven't formed a strong enough opinion on a lot of these names to feel confident about blindly picking a few.  I will most likely just ride a 2 WR lineup most of the year, if memory serves I believe I did the same thing last year and kept an eye on the WR flavors of the week, as they're usually easier/cheaper to get a hold of.
*Repeat* Sanders actually had the 19th highest WR PPG average last year. He only made it through 12 games due to his 2nd year dealing with an injury.  Injuries are a concern, compounded further by his age (32 this year).

On the other hand, Joe Flacco is a considerable upgrade not only to Sanders, but the team/offense as a whole.
Sanders through 2014-2016 averaged:
138 targets, 85 catches, 1,190 yards, 6.67 TDs, 204 fantasy points, or 13.2 PPG.
Last year before injury through his 12 games played he was on pace for:
131 targets, 94 catches, 1,157 yards, 5.34 TDs, 210 fantasy points, or 13.1 PPG
*Variation of PPG and total FPS is due to games played, as he only played 15 games in '15 & '16.
204-210 fantasy points would have resulted in a 13th overall finish last year.

Sutton doesn't scare me for 2 reasons:
1: He was there last year (I understand growth, development, etc and don't disagree with that logic but...)
2: Sanders best years directly correlate to Demaryius Thomas's best years who operated as a true dominant #1 WR. (I know you're thinking Manning effect and while I don't dispute that at all, do remember Peyton only played for '14 and half of '15.  Oswieler Played 6~8 games in '15, Seimian was '16, and last year was Keenum.  Peyton obviously elevates everyone around him, but Sanders production has survived across all 3 QBs, and let's not pretend 2015 Peyton's and 2014 Peyton are the same person.

Starting Lineup:
QB: ?
RB1: Zeke
RB2: James White
WR1: Keenan Allen
WR2: AJ Green
TE: ?
Flex: Tarik Cohen
Flex: Whoever steps up (or survives) in the next 2-3 months.

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9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

9Mwi8Ir.gif

BTW I'll be out for lunch in a bit, but I have my top-2 ready, should you not have fallen asleep yet.

 

I was trying to consult the I Ching about who to draft, but it's worse than a fantasy columnist.  

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My list for Pack has all been picked so I’ve got nothing.

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3 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Ok:  John Brown, WR, BUF

 

You're up @Boudewijn with @PackersFan1979 on deck if he's around.

You know that feeling when you need a new shirt but you decide to buy the new Xbox game?

I really really need a RB, but gosh darnit, Eric Ebron is still available. Let me know if anybody needs to trade for a TE :)

@PackersFan1979 is up, @DerrickHenrysCleats is next.

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A few notes about the players I selected since we're more than halfway thru the draft...

CMC: 1098-7-5.0 and 107-867-6 on 327 total touches. Rarely comes off field. Had 4th most red zone carries in '18 (46). 1K/1K threat. Cam shoulder issues not necessarily a bad thing for checkdowns. Slight edge over Saquan due to teams/schedule. 

Hilton: 76-1260-6 last year. WR1 for elite offense/QB playing majority of games in dome. May lose targets to Funchess/Cain/Campbell but still and elite deep threat. Tied for 5th with Cooks for most 20+ yard receptions (22) last year (Hill/27 led league).

Mack: 908-9-4.7 and 17-108-1 in yr 2 jump. 10th most red zone carries in '18 (36) behind stellar Colts o-line. No clear threat to carries aside from satellite back Hines. TD upside galore.

DJ Moore: 1st round pick, elite metrics, 55-788-2 in '18. Only 22 yrs old. Added 172 yards rushing. Played a ton of slot. Alpha dog with no Funchess? Cam shoulder a concern. Very little competition for targets.

S. Michel: 931-6-4.5 as rookie. Had 6th most red zone carries in '18 with 42. Leaned on during SB run and win. Knee concerns. Could get overtaken by Harris but TD upside too much to overlook in run heavy NE offense with soft schedule.

MVS: 6-4, 4.37 speed. 76% snap rate last year without Cobb (now in DAL). GB expected to open camp with 3-WR set of Adams, Allison, MVS. Posted third-best separation rate in '18. 

M. Sanders: Explosive college RB with 4.49 speed at 5-11, 211...averaged 3.8 yards after contact at PSU. Drafted in 2nd round by PHI, who also bolstered o-line with Andre Dillard in 1st. Superior athlete to Howard. More versatile and dynamic. Saquan lite?

A. Miller: Led CHI in TD catches (7) as a rookie despite injuries. Elite prospect. Year 2 in Nagy's system. Whole offense should take step forward. Chance to become top target if ARob goes down.

D. Harris: 3rd round pick by NE who already have Michel. Very good college player with 3.16 yards after contact and 22 forced missed tackles in '18. Should be in line for shared carries with Michel. Upside to be main early down RB if Michel knee woes continue. 

In this kind of league I'm all about upside. I'd rather swing for the fences and strike out than play it safe. 

 

Edited by mrblonde1984
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After 122 picks, we have:

- 9 QB, 52 RB, 52 WR, 9 TE off the board

- the median team is now QB, 3 RB, 4 WR and a TE (TooBad / DocJ / BrokenB)

- Most RBs are for FFCollusion (6), followed by MrBlonde and Miami (5) Boudewijn has the fewest with only 2.

- Most WRs are with Cyber and Predator (5). DHC has only 2.

- Most TEs are with Zidane and Boudewijn (2)

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5 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

Let us know when you need a TE in Week 9 when Ebron and Engram are on bye. :)

I never look at bye week considerations, but this is a funny one.

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@Boudewijn Im actually shocked he was still available. I would have taken him earlier but Im not sure how having Mack-Hilton-Ebron would work out on a weekly basis. Nice value for you.

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Almost took him with my last pick as 6 of his tds came with everyone healthy last season but IND is loaded with red zone threats now so I’m Leary how much that TD total will drop this year.

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cricket-chirping-gif-5.gif

Given that it's close to midnight in Oz, I guess I will see you guys tomorrow. Time to spend some time with my girlfriend and a good beer (I won't say which of those two is the crucial part ;)).

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