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Jaylen Samuels 2019 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Yeah I of course dropped him just prior to the game but not too upset about it. Tomlin will sprinkle in Edmonds and that other special teams guy, Snell back soon, Rudolph awful, and pretty much every single WR is out with a concussion.

Cinci D may be a better play then Samuels next week.

Yep- this looks no better than a 'starting back for the Lions' situation. Hard to get real excited about it.

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I don’t have any Steelers RBs so haven’t paid much attention to this drama but may have an opportunity to get Samuels, so here I am. It seems to me, this situation looks great for Samuels. The fact that he isn’t a traditional RB is a good thing with a crappy QB, hurt WRs, and Connor’s health being up in the air. I’m in PPR, so there’s that, but give this guy can get enough targets and carries targets each game to put up start-able numbers.

Maybe I’m trying to convince myself of that because I may end up with him, but I don’t view the Steelers crappy situation with QB or WRs as such a bad thing for someone like Samuels.

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13 minutes ago, Butters said:

I don’t have any Steelers RBs so haven’t paid much attention to this drama but may have an opportunity to get Samuels, so here I am. It seems to me, this situation looks great for Samuels. The fact that he isn’t a traditional RB is a good thing with a crappy QB, hurt WRs, and Connor’s health being up in the air. I’m in PPR, so there’s that, but give this guy can get enough targets and carries targets each game to put up start-able numbers.

Maybe I’m trying to convince myself of that because I may end up with him, but I don’t view the Steelers crappy situation with QB or WRs as such a bad thing for someone like Samuels.

He should be serviceable in PPR due to the passing work but his ypc is just pathetic

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Great spot for this guy next week vs Cincy. McDonald and Samuels will carry the Steelers next week.

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I always thought Jaylen Samuels could be a potential league winner if Conner remains hurt or is shut down. But, Rudolph's play does not inspire confidence and unfortunately Jaylen needs someone to throw him the ball.

Defenses will key in on Samuels since the rest of the offense is inept. 

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3 hours ago, Chippa said:

 

The level of cope from people who irrationally dropped Samuels

I was going to say the same thing...

Don't hate on Samuels in the best matchup he and Pitt will see all year just because you're bitter you dropped him. Handcuffs are always recommended to hold at least until the injured player makes it through their first game back.

Also, Rudolph had his best game of his career vs Cincy in Week 3, including a 124 QB rating. So gimme a break.

 

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33 minutes ago, StuPitt said:

Unfortunately I read this trend yesterday.  All these posts about how droppable Samuels was.  I did not drop him, but had him in my starting lineup. I just felt Conner was not all the way back.  His initial forecast was that he might miss the rest of the season....so for him to come back as early as he did made my skeptical.  On top of that Conner aint all that great, I had him last year.  He was serviceable, not great.

 

The only RB's ahead of him in STD/Half PPR/PPR after Week 13 (in which he was injured) were:

- Gurley

- Saquon 

- CMC

- Kamara

 

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His production definitely slowed down after Week 9, and he was a "0" for the most critical part of the fantasy season, but he was more than serviceable before the injuries began taking their toll. 

Edited by vercrazy
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3 game suspension for pouncey.

That won't help the running game.

Silver lining: maybe protection is bad enough that Samuels and the fullback catch 20 dump offs a game between them

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8 hours ago, Butters said:

I don’t have any Steelers RBs so haven’t paid much attention to this drama but may have an opportunity to get Samuels, so here I am. It seems to me, this situation looks great for Samuels. The fact that he isn’t a traditional RB is a good thing with a crappy QB, hurt WRs, and Connor’s health being up in the air. I’m in PPR, so there’s that, but give this guy can get enough targets and carries targets each game to put up start-able numbers.

Maybe I’m trying to convince myself of that because I may end up with him, but I don’t view the Steelers crappy situation with QB or WRs as such a bad thing for someone like Samuels.

He's not what many (including myself) had hoped. That game against the Pats last year was a fluke. I do still think he's a RB2 with Conner out. You figure he'll get at least 10 rushes and 5 catches, with a pretty decent shot at a TD given their schedule. 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He's not what many (including myself) had hoped. That game against the Pats last year was a fluke. I do still think he's a RB2 with Conner out. You figure he'll get at least 10 rushes and 5 catches, with a pretty decent shot at a TD given their schedule. 

 

RB2 might be a stretch. This offense looks terrible. Maybe a flex. 

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27 minutes ago, Randy_Rancourtt said:

RB2 might be a stretch. This offense looks terrible. Maybe a flex. 

Yeah it'd be low-end for sure, and PPR of course. I think he'd be in that RB20-25 range. 

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The theoretical volume based opportunity is there. Puts him in RB2 or flex range. Also the schedule looks decent. 

The downsides are:

Mason Rudolph is pretty bad. Team might be better with Hodges even under center. The O line when healthy is good but when Ramon Foster was out, they looked disorganized. Now Pouncey is out as well. Also now Juju and Diontae are out, leaving them with few reliable passing options outside of Washington and Vance. And finally the coaching staff has shown they don't truly trust him as a 3 down back, mixing in Edmunds and other back up RBs for runs. 

I would argue he's a James White type player, but on a team with a crippled offense, and a bad QB. 

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The situation is terrible for the Steelers. But in a larger PPR league, he could be startable. 

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45 minutes ago, potatoetree said:

The theoretical volume based opportunity is there. Puts him in RB2 or flex range. Also the schedule looks decent. 

The downsides are:

Mason Rudolph is pretty bad. Team might be better with Hodges even under center. The O line when healthy is good but when Ramon Foster was out, they looked disorganized. Now Pouncey is out as well. Also now Juju and Diontae are out, leaving them with few reliable passing options outside of Washington and Vance. And finally the coaching staff has shown they don't truly trust him as a 3 down back, mixing in Edmunds and other back up RBs for runs. 

I would argue he's a James White type player, but on a team with a crippled offense, and a bad QB. 

 

You mention it yourself though, the schedule is terrific. He's also playing behind a decent OL. We've already seen Mason Rudolph look adequate against better teams than they'll face ROS - only Buffalo looks even halfway troubling, and that's at home. There may be more targets available now with the WRs banged up and even in 0.5PPR he's now got 13pts in both wks 9 & 11. That left him RB22 in wk9.

Sure, he's something of a James White player, but White has been competing with Michel, Burkhead, Edelman and whichever no-mark Bellichick pulls out of his arse in a given week (Bolden? Harris?). Samuels is competing with Trey Edmonds and Vance McDonald. It's still a great opportunity, and one with a team that's still got a playoff chance (hilariously) and a juicy schedule.

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6 hours ago, potatoetree said:

I would argue he's a James White type player, but on a team with a crippled offense, and a bad QB. 

In terms of his skillset that's exactly what he should be, and while the Pats obviously have the far better offense, you're looking at competing with Michel and Burkhead vs realistically no one of consequence. That gives Samuels the edge IMO. Floor's would be similar but Samuels has the higher ceiling. 

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Yes but Mason Rudolph is truly terrible compared to Brady. There were plays where Rudolph can't even check down accurately lol. 

But I have hope Jaylen can produce. We are all agreeing his schedule and opportunity is good. It's about whether he can overcome Rudolph. 

Another example is Tarik Cohen. With Trubisky leading the way he's been a hard start. 

Also the body of evidence suggests it doesn't really matter as much that Jaylen doesn't "have anyone to compete" because he's not used as a 3 down back anyways.

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Rudolph has only been awful in one game this year and while yes, he was bad, so was the rest of the team. Didn't help either that he lost most of his weapons.  

I'd expect Samuels to be involved heavily in the passing game as long Juju and Conner are out. James Washington is mainly a deep ball threat and Diontae Johnson is struggling. Who else are they going to throw underneath routes to? 

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This is where we can agree to disagree lol. After watching every steelers game this year, I have concluded Rudolph has been mediocre in pretty much every game. And it holds back the entire offense, Jaylen included. 

There's a tipping point in which opportunity no longer yields value, in which the rest of the team is injured or is mediocre. 

Diontae is not even playing, he was concussed and bleeding out his ear 

 

Edited by potatoetree
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As bad as Rudolph has been, the injuries to Conner, Juju and Johnson are guaranteed to make Samuels a PPR monster for at least one week. He might have 15 catches against the Bengals.

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On 11/15/2019 at 11:45 AM, austin316 said:

I was going to say the same thing...

Don't hate on Samuels in the best matchup he and Pitt will see all year just because you're bitter you dropped him. Handcuffs are always recommended to hold at least until the injured player makes it through their first game back.

Also, Rudolph had his best game of his career vs Cincy in Week 3, including a 124 QB rating. So gimme a break.

 

This is from a standard league perspective. I didn't drop him and I don't love the situation. It's lame to discount valid criticisms of a player as "you're just mad you dropped him bro!". He's maybe in line for a lot of touches against a bad team but the fact of the matter is he plays for an offense with a very bad QB that is missing it's top 3 skill position players (top 2 WRs, RB1), it's starting center for three games,  and is coming off a game in which they looked putrid. On top of that it's looking like he won't quite dominate touches the way we'd hoped he would if forced in to service early this season. 

There's obviously opportunity here but to state that any concerns about his potential performance are just short-sighted managers being bitter disregards the reality of the situation. 

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2 hours ago, yossarian said:

This is from a standard league perspective. I didn't drop him and I don't love the situation. It's lame to discount valid criticisms of a player as "you're just mad you dropped him bro!". He's maybe in line for a lot of touches against a bad team but the fact of the matter is he plays for an offense with a very bad QB that is missing it's top 3 skill position players (top 2 WRs, RB1), it's starting center for three games,  and is coming off a game in which they looked putrid. On top of that it's looking like he won't quite dominate touches the way we'd hoped he would if forced in to service early this season. 

There's obviously opportunity here but to state that any concerns about his potential performance are just short-sighted managers being bitter disregards the reality of the situation. 

Agreed. I own both Conners and samuels. And took the L starting Conners this week. 

If Jaylen is able to be a ppr monster that would be great. But he has obstacles to Overcome

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5 hours ago, yossarian said:

This is from a standard league perspective. I didn't drop him and I don't love the situation. It's lame to discount valid criticisms of a player as "you're just mad you dropped him bro!". He's maybe in line for a lot of touches against a bad team but the fact of the matter is he plays for an offense with a very bad QB that is missing it's top 3 skill position players (top 2 WRs, RB1), it's starting center for three games,  and is coming off a game in which they looked putrid. On top of that it's looking like he won't quite dominate touches the way we'd hoped he would if forced in to service early this season. 

There's obviously opportunity here but to state that any concerns about his potential performance are just short-sighted managers being bitter disregards the reality of the situation. 

they were hating on the matchup. my mom can put up 100 yards on cincy

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I'm holding onto him although not happy about it. This is largely because I also own Conner and my guess: he's going to miss significant time after this debacle.

Samuels is nothing special at all and has disappointed hugely multiple times now. It's nice that PPR league owners get rich off 20 catches for 67 yards and whatnot, but realistically that is an extremely inefficient, pathetic brand of football this dude is playing. It's hard on the eyes, among other deficiencies.

Fact is he is at least a candidate for greater than 50% of the snaps from here to the end of the season, with likelihood for more - there's also the problem we have no idea what his actual role is. For some reason he's not the de facto "backup" despite having excelled in that role less than a calendar year ago.

I can see myself dropping him as well over the next few weeks if he continues to be part of a 3-headed practice-squad-committee. But wise move is to hold for now imo.

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