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Jaylen Samuels 2019 Outlook

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On 11/19/2019 at 8:39 AM, jmcampbe11 said:

Assuming Conner misses a few weeks, I'm curious how everyone values Samuels in relation to the other hot waiver wire RB adds this week. Like J. Williams (IND), Scarborough (DET), Hines (IND), etc. Better or worse option this week? 

He's probably lost most of his owners the past couple weeks but he's still obviously, realistically, an infinitely better asset than those guys today.

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56 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

He's probably lost most of his owners the past couple weeks but he's still obviously, realistically, an infinitely better asset than those guys today.

Over the last 3 weeks he’s outperformed all those guys. If you’re depending on Samuels to win you the week he isn’t the problem. 

Edited by Gohawks

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3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

If there was a week Cinci wins a game, it's this week with Pittsburgh still running out Mason Rudolph and having a depleted corps and backfield. 

I'm not saying Cinci is going to score points, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers turn the ball over. Unless that hit to Rudolph's head somehow made him a good quarterback. 

I'm with you, Pittsburgh's only chance to win is handing the ball off and throwing quick dump offs, not much for Cincy to game plan for. Last time they played I believe Cincy played 4 DTs on the line and stuffed the run but they couldn't pressure and gave up passes to Conner and sanuel

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8 minutes ago, philnutz said:

I'm with you, Pittsburgh's only chance to win is handing the ball off and throwing quick dump offs, not much for Cincy to game plan for. Last time they played I believe Cincy played 4 DTs on the line and stuffed the run but they couldn't pressure and gave up passes to Conner and sanuel

 

... howzabout the rest of the story?

an early Rudolph turnover gave dër Dalton led Büngles the early lead ...

then the Stillers went wildcat, and Samuels/Conner FEASTED - 8 receptions each, 16/16 on those passes (some were of the "touch" or "shovel" variety, but 16/16, nonetheless).

oh, and the Stillers D was insane ... pressure, sacks, picks, fumbles ... expect more from those cats on D after an embarrassment in Cleveland and 10 days rest.  

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Over the last 3 weeks he’s outperformed all those guys.

Very impressive to outscore Bo Scarborough over the past 3 weeks.

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34 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Very impressive to outscore Bo Scarborough over the past 3 weeks.

Aren’t all Alabama RBs supposed to be the next coming of AP?

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1 minute ago, David Aames said:

How do we think the steelers split.up the carries?

 

anyone in here looking for him to go for 142 yds rushing like last year vs Hoodie is sadly misguided .. 

... if you have him, you start him for the PPR burn - he's not seeing any more than 8 carries, imo - but he may ... may snag double digit catches again - the devil is in the details, folks 👹

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14 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

anyone in here looking for him to go for 142 yds rushing like last year vs Hoodie is sadly misguided .. 

... if you have him, you start him for the PPR burn - he's not seeing any more than 8 carries, imo - but he may ... may snag double digit catches again - the devil is in the details, folks 👹


Magick Fooszball Yô ... can you dig it 👻

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Aren’t all Alabama RBs supposed to be the next coming of AP?

According to DHC they all are better.

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He probably gets about half the snaps, most of the passing downs. I just don't trust a guy in standard who only gets half the snaps on a weak offense, not to mention he is a pretty mediocre talent. I think he is an okay flex play in standard and a solid play in ppr. The matchup is nice, but since I'm in standard I'll likely being sitting him.

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This is a nice in-depth piece on his matchup - courtesy Mike Tagliere - fantasypros:

We're going to simply assume Conner is held out this week, as he's consistently been injured this year and clearly needs a break from game action. Samuels is the primary beneficiary in his absence, though his 2.6 yards per carry have been horrendous. With all the pass-catchers out for the Steelers, he would also get plenty of work in the passing-game. Even with them in the lineup, Samuel has averaged 7.6 targets per game over the last five games he's played. The Bengals opponents have averaged a massive 29.7 running back touches per game, so there'll be plenty to go around. The efficiency has been there alongside the volume, as they've allowed a healthy 4.70 yards per carry, as well as 7.67 yards per target. Both of those marks are bottom-six in the NFL. Samuels totaled 18 touches the first time these teams met, and they amounted to 83 total yards and a touchdown. There have now been 14 running backs who've finished as the RB26 or better against the Bengals. Provided Conner is out, Samuels should be played as a mid-to-high-end RB2.

 

You'll see if you use the link above I was comparing him to Singletary this week, who interestingly is the overwhelming choice of writers. I don't necessarily agree - I'm still 'noodling' the decision...

 

EDIT - just tested my own link. Click the "Notes" tab to see the commentary pasted above...

Edited by SuperJoint

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I love the matchup but Snell is back, and Edmunds will be there too. Just gotta hope for all the catches! 

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4 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

I love the matchup but Snell is back, and Edmunds will be there too. Just gotta hope for all the catches! 

Steelers are 5-5 and need to win just to stay relevant - they're currently in the #8 seed in the AFC. If they are relying on Snell and Edmunds once again they're tanking in a crucial matchup.

I won't know they're tanking until after Sunday so feel pretty obligated to use Samuels where desperate. CIN defense is a must-start-against imo at RB, WR, or any other position imo. Iwon't go so far as to label Rudolph a must start, but in a bar bet as to which game will be his best game of the season I'd put a lot on it.

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He's still a startable low-end RB2 in PPR but my concern is actually the fact that the matchup is so "good". If Snell has success and Pitt has a lead we won't see as much of Samuels as we would if they were trailing, in hurry-up, etc. 

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2 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

He's still a startable low-end RB2 in PPR but my concern is actually the fact that the matchup is so "good". If Snell has success and Pitt has a lead we won't see as much of Samuels as we would if they were trailing, in hurry-up, etc. 

I agree w you. I dont love flexing him, even in full PPR. 2018 was a long time ago. 

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Pittsburgh knows they have the far better D so I see them limiting Rudolph to prevent turnovers and pounding Snell

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On 11/23/2019 at 12:45 AM, Mr Rourke said:

I agree w you. I dont love flexing him, even in full PPR. 2018 was a long time ago. 

I saw this coming but started him anyway. Pathetic. really thought he'd have a decent opportunity but no. 

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Brutal but at least it happened in week 12 and not weeks 14-16. This guy can be dropped and forgotten about 

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