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Jaylen Samuels 2019 Outlook

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45 minutes ago, n00chness said:

Signal (big shift in philosophy to get Samuels more involved in the offense as a PPR jack-of-all-trades) or Noise (one-off performance against sive-like Bengals run defense)?

If it's the former, then Samuels is not just a hand-cuff anymore; he would be a RB2...

This is the million dollar question. I tend to lean the latter and chalk it up to Cincy being atrocious but if it's the former not only does he have stand alone value for catches and TDs, but when he's in wildcat near the GL if he flips it to someone it's a "passing" TD. If they use him like this moving forward he could creep up on low-end RB1 territory. 

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Must add this week..

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Yeah must add......to see how he will be used moving forward. While he may only provide flex value, or just be a handcuff, who else can you add this week that has RB2 upside

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Speaking as a Samuels and Conner owner, it's promising to see some life from these guys. But at the end of the day, I don't think this team can support two RBs like this on a week-to-week basis. Either Conner continues as the main RB with Samuels as a flex/handcuff, or Samuels takes over Conner's job, or it's an awkward RBBC with Snell thrown in there from time to time.


The Steelers ran like 8 wildcat formations, almost entirely in the first half of the game, which is more than then they've ever done in like the last decade lol. Nearing the end of the game, the crappy Bengals defense finally started to adjust and started to shut down the wildcat. By definition, the wildcat is used to take defenses by surprise. This will not be a reliable way to run this offense in the long term. The end result was that it did get things going for Rudolph, who got more comfortable and threw that bomb to Johnson for the TD.

So my opinion is that Samuels will not be an RB2 moving forward, but rather RB3/maybe flex, or at best in a RBBC, UNLESS he can usurp Conner as the top RB (which seems unlikely).

Edited by potatoetree
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Nobody called him an RB2 because that would be stupid. 

So I think next week will be very telling. There's a decent chance that the Steelers ignore the fact they played the Bengals, and say, "hey, this is the best our offense looked all year".

If they don't do that, he's what he was before, and a pure handcuff because of donut potential. If they do, he's a pretty matchup-proof RB3. And at that point, I think he's probably the most valuable cuff in the league (talking about guys like Mattison and Pollard, not anything dumb like calling Lindsay or Peyton Barber a handcuff, a necessary disclaimer for Rotoworld-tier posters). Mattison has a higher ceiling, but Samuels would transcend that RB1/2 fringe potential and actually provide relatively reliable standalone value. It'd be an unmatched combination. He's a very intriguing fantasy property at the moment. 

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looked to me like Jaylen is more valuable when Conner is also in the game alongside him, which keeps the defense guessing.  If Conner were to get hurt, i don't think that leads to RB1/or mid-RB2 value for Jaylen.  Likely mid-RB2 to mid-RB3 numbers

either way, still worth a waiver add just to see, but i wouldn't spend a whole lot of FAAB on him

Edited by swetooth9
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Some of you must have some really shallow benches(nothing wrong with that every league is different) but I've had Samuels and Rojo on mine since draft night in hopes of one if not both being bye week fill ins or better.

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They likely used the game against the Bengals as a testing ground for how the unique formations would work in-game seeing as CIN is less than formidable against the run. I would expect the wildcat and dual RB usage to carry over into future games however it will likely be at a much lower usage than what we saw last night.

What is promising though is that Samuels appears to be able to slide right in for Connor and be nearly as effective in both running the ball but especially in the receiving department. Even if Samuels doesn't retain week-to-week solo value with Connor available he should still be owned as a top tier handcuff going forward... Certainly when looking at how Connor almost always seems to have an ailment each week.

 

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55 minutes ago, Fabrini said:

Some of you must have some really shallow benches(nothing wrong with that every league is different) but I've had Samuels and Rojo on mine since draft night in hopes of one if not both being bye week fill ins or better.

 

Yeah leagues like that do exist. I'm in one that has positional limits(can only roster 4 RBs, 5 WRs, etc) where Samuels is on the wire. I actually hate it because every team is good and the wire is loaded with talent but it is what it is. I'm in another deep league that is much more fun. People get sidetracked too much here arguing about whether a player should be available or startable forgetting there are so many different league settings. 

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Noise, according to CBS's Ben Gretch: 

Given it was an island game, most people probably saw the Steelers run an offense heavy on jet motion and wildcat formations. Jaylen Samuels was a focal point, but not at the expense of James Conner, and both were in on several plays. The running back tandem led the team in a tie with eight targets each, and part of why they each caught all eight of their targets was that many were tip passes on motion plays. Samuels even wound up with a passing line of 3-for-3 for 31 yards, all three of which were tip passes to Conner. 

Samuels' eight targets combined for negative-19 air yards, meaning on average he caught the ball 2.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Conner's touchdown reception came on a sprint out where he was out in a short curl route before he showed off plenty of after-the-catch ability for the score, but even with some positive air yards on that play his air yards total for the day was negative-9 yards. 

In fact, while Mason Rudolph finished with what looks like a sterling passing line of 24-for-28 for 229 yards and two scores, he totaled just 95 air yards on the night for an aDOT of 3.4, which is tiny for a quarterback and would have been even lower if not for a third quarter downfield shot to Diontae Johnson that went for a 43-yard touchdown. 

It was a gimmicky offense and it worked perfectly against the Bengals, but whether they will continue with that offense to the same degree next week is very much up in the air. These types of moves are often one-game switches, and while we might see some of this incorporated going forward, I expect a more traditional offense next week. 

I would have a hard time starting Samuels in Week 5, despite his productivity, unless I was very thin at RB. I counted seven direct snaps he took in the wildcat, including his rushing touchdown, and the passing stats from that formation added to his Fantasy total. If I had to guess, I'd expect more like two or three direct snaps next week. Then there's the issue of his receiving role, and while he did catch a few passes on dumpoffs that weren't designed tip passes, there's no question the scheme helped boost his receiving line to eight catches and 57 yards. He'd be an upside play on the hope he's still incorporated in similarly creative ways, but it's always a bit thin to trust gimmicky production to carry over.

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The Steeler's schedule vs RB defense really softens up after this weeks Raven's game.  If Samuel's keeps a big role in the offense, he might not be available later in the season.

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4 minutes ago, rocket said:

The Steeler's schedule vs RB defense really softens up after this weeks Raven's game.  If Samuel's keeps a big role in the offense, he might not be available later in the season.

Ravens defense is not good this year. Chubb just sliced and diced them with a terrible OLine. 

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2 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

Ravens defense is not good this year. Chubb just sliced and diced them with a terrible OLine. 

yeah, I'm aware of that.  But the other defenses have been even worse on average for the year.

Edited by rocket

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If Conner can't go because of the ankle, he's the obvious #1 add for this week.

Sure, they can't go all wildcat on many teams.  But his usage in the passing game was encouraging.  Maybe we will see this become more of a timeshare going forward...

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Obviously worth a grab but for FAAB purposes, I'm wondering if someone is going to splurge on him based on this game's usage. It seems very Bengals-related. I could see him scoring 3 points next week (assuming Conner plays). 

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

If Conner can't go because of the ankle, he's the obvious #1 add for this week.

Sure, they can't go all wildcat on many teams.  But his usage in the passing game was encouraging.  Maybe we will see this become more of a timeshare going forward...

 

He's definitely an RB1 if Conner is out, especially in PPR formats. He'll get a ton of volume. 

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We saw it at the end of last year and we are seeing it again, that he just fits in this offense.

Maybe he performs so well because he has fresh legs or maybe Samuels is just the better RB?

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16 hours ago, potatoetree said:

The Steelers ran like 8 wildcat formations, almost entirely in the first half of the game, 

 

4 wildcats in the first half. 

 

4 in the second half. 

 

you don’t have to make stuff up here. 

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1 hour ago, astrongcupofjoel said:

 

4 wildcats in the first half. 

 

4 in the second half. 

 

you don’t have to make stuff up here. 

My bad! Thought I heard the announcer say it in the first half. Doesn't change my point though that the wildcat won't be a sustainable strategy in the longterm. 

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17 minutes ago, potatoetree said:

 Doesn't change my point though that the wildcat won't be a sustainable strategy in the longterm. 

Ronnie Brown ain't walking through that door!

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Samuels isn't going anywhere.  He is here to stay in this offense.  With a hobbling running back in Connor and Samuels being the guy to catch many balls.  He has to be a must add because that upside is just too juicy to ignore.  Id add him over Ronald Jones and Jordan Howard, since they are on waivers also

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I miss the good ole days of the awe-inspiring RB/TE tag.  The magical unicorn of fantasy football, much to the chagrin of non-owners.  

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14 hours ago, BLINDSIDERS said:

Ronnie Brown ain't walking through that door!

Oh Ronnie Brown, the memories... I'll never forget the 5TD line against the Pats. 

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