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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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2 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Still no stolen bases. 

 

I know, what a stiff. 

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12 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Just hope he’s not ROIdan. JK 🙃

 

He has been. The best Return On Investment of the season. 

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6 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Still no stolen bases. 

Can't steal when you're either on second base or trotting around the bases most of the time... 😀

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.353/.432/.743

45 games/167 AB: 30 R, 17 HR, 51 RBI

550 AB pace: 99 R, 56 HR, 168 RBI

That'll play.

 

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54 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

He has been. The best Return On Investment of the season. 

Correct, since nobody paid a dime for him, FREE STATS!!!

Stay Hangry Amigo!

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On 7/13/2019 at 10:44 AM, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

 

This is still one of my favorite posts.

 

Yordan could flirt with 30 HR this year if he keeps mashing... definitely 25+.

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2 hours ago, nlm said:

 

This is still one of my favorite posts.

 

Yordan could flirt with 30 HR this year if he keeps mashing... definitely 25+.

Pretty much a lock for 25+. This guy is a All-Star for years to come.

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4 hours ago, nlm said:

 

This is still one of my favorite posts.

 

Yordan could flirt with 30 HR this year if he keeps mashing... definitely 25+.

 

What is interesting to me is going back through Jordan's AAA time this year and his MLB time I don't see where he has ever once gone into any type of prolonged slump. That's what makes a superstar, normal players go into 3 week long slumps. Superstars are "off" for a week and get back to doing what they do. Houston has a stud here. 

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4 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

What is interesting to me is going back through Jordan's AAA time this year and his MLB time I don't see where he has ever once gone into any type of prolonged slump. That's what makes a superstar, normal players go into 3 week long slumps. Superstars are "off" for a week and get back to doing what they do. Houston has a stud here. 

 

Yep, I agree. He's not going to hit 3 HR every night, but he isn't going to go into prolonged slumps, either. I almost expect a hit and run or rbi from him at this point... he is consistently unreal.

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I mean, taking into consideration new toy syndrome in redrafts 2nd round isn't out of the question.

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5 hours ago, kwolf68 said:

 

What is interesting to me is going back through Jordan's AAA time this year and his MLB time I don't see where he has ever once gone into any type of prolonged slump. That's what makes a superstar, normal players go into 3 week long slumps. Superstars are "off" for a week and get back to doing what they do. Houston has a stud here. 

Who in the hell is Jordan? 😉

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Who in the hell is Jordan? 😉

He's talking about Air Yordan

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On 8/11/2019 at 8:09 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

Leads the league in stole hearts tho 😍😍😍

670541.jpg

THAT's why he mashes the ball. He has one eye looking at the pitcher and one eye looking at the ball coming in. Oof.

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6 hours ago, miasma16 said:

He's talking about Air Yordan

I know, but his name still isn't Jordan. 😉

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9 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

THAT's why he mashes the ball. He has one eye looking at the pitcher and one eye looking at the ball coming in. Oof.

Don't hate El Chameleon 

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10 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

THAT's why he mashes the ball. He has one eye looking at the pitcher and one eye looking at the ball coming in. Oof.

 

51 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Don't hate El Chameleon 

 

Yes. His eyes can move independently and lock in on the the target like a heat seeking missile and destroy the target (i.e. baseball).

 

 

tumblr_nehbjdxaJu1qdgc6io1_500.gif

 

giphy.gif

 

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On 7/13/2019 at 8:44 AM, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

This is one spicy meatball.

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On 7/13/2019 at 11:44 PM, dkrocka said:

Can't wait for this guy to ruin you in the playoffs when yordy will have to adjust to a major league scouting book past 200 at bats.

IN Defense of this post. He has not yet reached 200 ABs yet so it still remains to be seen if scouting reports will adjust to him,contain him and that he will ruin your playoffs if you own him. 

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8 hours ago, Trexpenniebaker said:

IN Defense of this post. He has not yet reached 200 ABs yet so it still remains to be seen if scouting reports will adjust to him,contain him and that he will ruin your playoffs if you own him. 

What are teams waiting on?

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

What are teams waiting on? 

 

It's not that they're not trying, it's that they haven't yet been successful.  It took MLB teams ~500 PA to find a way to reliably get Bellinger out in his rookie year, but they eventually did, forcing him to counter-adjust over the course of the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.  If anyone playing fantasy baseball could reliably time these inflection points, they'd be extremely wealthy, and the industry would collapse.  We're all in some sense extrapolating from his scouting pedigree, minor league production, his numbers so far in MLB, and what we see when we watch.

It's not inherently right or wrong to come away from those inputs with a more cautious / pessimistic outlook, but at some point, when a player is this locked in, you're going to have a hard time finding options to fill in who (a) aren't susceptible to the same bad timing of their slumps, and (b) have anything near his ceiling if they perform at or close to their baseline.

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You can talk all you want, just be mindful that pretty much everyone in the lineup had 3 hits that day against the Orioles. I'll return around around Sept 20ish and I'll either admit I was wrong or laugh at every single one of you that are gauging top30+ on 100-170 at bats

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