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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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Sshhhh...one of my very favorite things about fantasy baseball is finding terrific mid to late round draft value for players that inexperienced owners deem to be "old". Please continue to let the hype crowd reach for and chase those younger players!! 😀

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On 10/20/2019 at 10:35 AM, Slatykamora said:

Yeah. On a per game basis he was stud last year. There are a ton of example of mid-season call up guys who don't sniff their rookie year per game production the very next year. Of all talent levels. So i prefer to avoid per game metrics for mid-season rookies. IMO.

Touched on this last year, but its a combination of counter adjusting to him and the fact April and May are least favorable months for established hitters. 

He's very talented, but saying he isn't an 1st rounder in any re-draft format is a more then fair assessment. Regardless how you weigh SB value.

Right of course you have to always assess sample size. We will see how the league adjusted to him. My post wasn't trying to say Air Yordan should be a first rounder, but just to point out he was hitting at a first round rate. Being DH-only (at least to start the year) alone knocks him down a bit too.

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11 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

AL ROY, awesome!

Well deserved. Let's hope for no sophomore slump! 

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Will he be a career DH, or does he have a future at first or LF?  It's concerning that, he's probably more athletic now than he will be down the line, and they basically already relegated him to DH duties last year. 

In dynasties, I'd have a lot of reservations trying to trade or draft for him with him being stuck in the UTIL spot.  For the price you'd have to pay, it doesn't seem worth it.  It can really start to limit options in terms of roster construction and flexibility.

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15 hours ago, pduce242424 said:

Will he be a career DH, or does he have a future at first or LF?  It's concerning that, he's probably more athletic now than he will be down the line, and they basically already relegated him to DH duties last year. 

In dynasties, I'd have a lot of reservations trying to trade or draft for him with him being stuck in the UTIL spot.  For the price you'd have to pay, it doesn't seem worth it.  It can really start to limit options in terms of roster construction and flexibility.


 

Definitely something to worry about.  Defense is valued higher than ever these days and he’s simply awful in the field.  I don’t think he’ll ever lose at bats because of it, or not anytime soon, but he only had 10 appearances in the field last year out of 87 games.  That’s not a good sign going forward.  I don’t see it as a huge problem in dynasty as his bat is definitely worth it, it just forces you to manage your roster a little differently and makes it so you can’t have another DH only type like Cruz or I’d go as far as saying I’d never own Vlad and Yordan on the same dynasty.  One day soon they’ll both be a problem.

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9 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

One day soon they’ll both be a problem.


if your problem is you have two elite players you can only fit one in your lineup  , it’s a great problem to have. Both have tremendous dynasty value .

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Assuming he remains at Utility in your fantasy league, does anybody know of any analysis that attempts to quantify the (negative) impact that has on your fantasy team? I know it’s probably a vague, impossible to answer question, but I’m curious if anyone has tried to look at it.

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7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:


if your problem is you have two elite players you can only fit one in your lineup  , it’s a great problem to have. Both have tremendous dynasty value .

I would love to have them as set and forgot utility players for the next 10 years

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7 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

I would love to have them as set and forgot utility players for the next 10 years

There is no such thing as "set and forget" in fantasy baseball, especially at UTIL. This isn't FFB

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On 11/19/2019 at 7:29 AM, BackyardBaseball said:


 

Definitely something to worry about.  Defense is valued higher than ever these days and he’s simply awful in the field.  I don’t think he’ll ever lose at bats because of it, or not anytime soon, but he only had 10 appearances in the field last year out of 87 games.  That’s not a good sign going forward.  I don’t see it as a huge problem in dynasty as his bat is definitely worth it, it just forces you to manage your roster a little differently and makes it so you can’t have another DH only type like Cruz or I’d go as far as saying I’d never own Vlad and Yordan on the same dynasty.  One day soon they’ll both be a problem.

One day soon?  Like,  one day 10 years from now soon?  Man you dynasty guys can sometimes go a little long term... these guys can barely drive legally after 11pm. 

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1 hour ago, WahooManiac said:

One day soon?  Like,  one day 10 years from now soon?  Man you dynasty guys can sometimes go a little long term... these guys can barely drive legally after 11pm. 

Even in dynasty the present and short term is the most valuable. Time is money. The farther off in the future you try to predict, the more wrong you are going to be. You build with an eye on the future, not sell out for it.

It's funny how to see people worry about things so far down the line. Selling the value of present and short term at a huge discount.

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10 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

One day soon?  Like,  one day 10 years from now soon?  Man you dynasty guys can sometimes go a little long term... these guys can barely drive legally after 11pm. 

 

8 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Even in dynasty the present and short term is the most valuable. Time is money. The farther off in the future you try to predict, the more wrong you are going to be. You build with an eye on the future, not sell out for it.

It's funny how to see people worry about things so far down the line. Selling the value of present and short term at a huge discount.

 

Some people actually worry more about position eligibility of guys 5 years down the line than analyzing if the hitter is actually good. The Vlad minor league thread is a perfect example of it. Like, it's not that I dont think being DH only doesn't take away some value, but it's a very small amount compared to, you know, if the guy is a really good hitter or not. 

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On 11/20/2019 at 8:33 AM, MSkibisky said:

There is no such thing as "set and forget" in fantasy baseball, especially at UTIL. This isn't FFB

If you say so, if they are going to be say top 30-50 hitters: I could care less if they just have UTIL eligibility I can fix my roster around that

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8 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

If you say so, if they are going to be say top 30-50 hitters: I could care less if they just have UTIL eligibility I can fix my roster around that

If a UTIL-only player doesn't give you a headache, you clearly haven't played FBB for long. I love Nelson Cruz' output, but he has given me headaches being UTIL-only for years. Now with Yordan, it will be the same boat. They affect your roster, sorry to say, especially with OF becoming more and more shallow. 

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33 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

If a UTIL-only player doesn't give you a headache, you clearly haven't played FBB for long. 

 

Sorry, but this is a terrible take. Nelson Cruz literally outperforms his ADP every year, for almost a decade now. Again, I agree you prefer to have them have a position, that's not debatable. But if your team is so stacked that one of the best hitters in baseball has trouble cracking your lineup at UT, then it doesn't seem like a challenging league or your team is so stacked that it doesn't matter (so I'm not sure why you'd have a headache) 

I generally only play in 5 OF leagues, 3 only if it's like 20 teams. Assuming a 10-12 3 OF league, you have 4 OF that are better than Cruz that it's giving you a headache?  There were about 13-15 OFers (using 20 game eligibility)  that were better hitters than Cruz last year? If you had 4 of those dudes, it probably didn't matter that you couldn't play Cruz and I'd recommend playing in a deeper or more competitive league rather than getting headaches.

Again, I would prefer all my players to have as many positions as possible. I would love for Nelson Cruz to have 1b, OF, and if I 'm being honest catcher. That being said, if you get 40ish HR,middle of the order RBI/Runs with a near 300 average, that plays at UT in any competitive league rather easily. 

I see Cruz and David Ortiz consistently on competitive winning fantasy teams every year. 

Recently won a championship in a league with many really good RW posters here with Nelson Cruz at UT. He homered on the final day to cap off the championship. No headaches. Just winning.

If a guy is an elite hitter, which is a very important caveat, it really doesn't matter his position.  Yes, if you have 2 elite UT hitters and only one UT spot, you certainly need to trade one, no argument there. Last year there was just 1 elite UT only guy, Cruz. This year, I agree you're not in an ideal spot if you own Cruz and Yordan, but if it's redraft just don't do it, if it's keeper/dynasty explore a trade.  I feel the same way if you have two elite catchers in a 1 catcher league. You're losing value if you own Realmuto and Grandal.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Sorry, but this is a terrible take. Nelson Cruz literally outperforms his ADP every year, for almost a decade now. Again, I agree you prefer to have them have a position, that's not debatable. But if your team is so stacked that one of the best hitters in baseball has trouble cracking your lineup at UT, then it doesn't seem like a challenging league or your team is so stacked that it doesn't matter (so I'm not sure why you'd have a headache) 

I generally only play in 5 OF leagues, 3 only if it's like 20 teams. Assuming a 10-12 3 OF league, you have 4 OF that are better than Cruz that it's giving you a headache?  There were about 13-15 OFers (using 20 game eligibility)  that were better hitters than Cruz last year? If you had 4 of those dudes, it probably didn't matter that you couldn't play Cruz and I'd recommend playing in a deeper or more competitive league rather than getting headaches.

Again, I would prefer all my players to have as many positions as possible. I would love for Nelson Cruz to have 1b, OF, and if I 'm being honest catcher. That being said, if you get 40ish HR,middle of the order RBI/Runs with a near 300 average, that plays at UT in any competitive league rather easily. 

I see Cruz and David Ortiz consistently on competitive winning fantasy teams every year. 

Recently won a championship in a league with many really good RW posters here with Nelson Cruz at UT. He homered on the final day to cap off the championship. No headaches. Just winning.

If a guy is an elite hitter, which is a very important caveat, it really doesn't matter his position.  Yes, if you have 2 elite UT hitters and only one UT spot, you certainly need to trade one, no argument there. Last year there was just 1 elite UT only guy, Cruz. This year, I agree you're not in an ideal spot if you own Cruz and Yordan, but if it's redraft just don't do it, if it's keeper/dynasty explore a trade.  I feel the same way if you have two elite catchers in a 1 catcher league. You're losing value if you own Realmuto and Grandal.

Without getting too off topic of the thread..

 

Keeper leagues is where this is incorrect. ie: 10 man keeper league, you have Lindor, Turner, and Yordan. What would YOU do? You have 2 stud SS, so one has to be your UTIL, and with Yordan only, you are FORCED to deal him, or watch him rake on your bench. This is my point. By taking up a UTIL spot, you have to re-arrange the rest of your lineup accordingly, especially with players who only play 1 position, ie: Lindor or Turner. 

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8 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Without getting too off topic of the thread..

 

Keeper leagues is where this is incorrect. ie: 10 man keeper league, you have Lindor, Turner, and Yordan. What would YOU do? You have 2 stud SS, so one has to be your UTIL, and with Yordan only, you are FORCED to deal him, or watch him rake on your bench. This is my point. By taking up a UTIL spot, you have to re-arrange the rest of your lineup accordingly, especially with players who only play 1 position, ie: Lindor or Turner. 

 

I understand the hypothetical you gave me. Your league is shallow, and your team is stacked.  It's disingenuous to use this example and tell the rest of people that "if Nelson Cruz doesn't give you headaches, you haven't played fantasy baseball for long". If you haven't noticed Nelson Cruz is one of the most consistent fantasy earners by ADP every year for nearly a decade, that's on you.  Every year he gets discounted in redraft because of that sort of mentality (now coupled with his age) and people reap profits EVERY year.  One year it will stop, maybe its' 2020. 

I understand that it is possible to to have a team so good with limited playing options that you can't play good players.  Make a trade. It's no different than in fantasy football you draft the best QB 1st and your backup QB that you got late explodes and becomes the #2/3 QB. Make a trade.

If the shallowness of your league is giving you headaches, find a deeper league.  If you're in a keeper league and your team is so stacked that a 40 HR 300 guy can't crack your lineup, make a trade or find a more competitive league whether by competition or expanded rosters.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I understand the hypothetical you gave me. Your league is shallow, and your team is stacked.  It's disingenuous to use this example and tell the rest of people that "if Nelson Cruz doesn't give you headaches, you haven't played fantasy baseball for long". If you haven't noticed Nelson Cruz is one of the most consistent fantasy earners by ADP every year for nearly a decade, that's on you.  Every year he gets discounted in redraft because of that sort of mentality (now coupled with his age) and people reap profits EVERY year.  One year it will stop, maybe its' 2020. 

You're still failing to understand that concept that, 8 man league, or 15 man league, roster size is roster size, and a UTIL player WILL take the spot of another player, regardless of talent. No one, including myself, argues about said players' talent, ie: Cruz, Alvarez, ie. Sure, they are studs. But my point which i still think you are failing to grasp is that rosters revolve AROUND your UTIL player. You even proved that point with your FFB example and saying "if there is too much talent on your bench, make a trade". That is a great example of a UTIL player controlling your roster moves. 

Again, not arguing against the talent level or amount of value added. But the fact is with ANY depth league, your roster WILL have to revolve around the fact that your UTIL spot is already taken, and you must roster your team accordingly.

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16 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

If a UTIL-only player doesn't give you a headache, you clearly haven't played FBB for long. I love Nelson Cruz' output, but he has given me headaches being UTIL-only for years. Now with Yordan, it will be the same boat. They affect your roster, sorry to say, especially with OF becoming more and more shallow. 

Well, in all my leagues we have 2 UTIL spots, and I have been playing FBB since 1998 in the old sandbox league(pre yahoo): I play in one redraft, one 5 keeper and one dynasty league....I have been successful in all the leagues and I always just try to take the best player(s) available  position be damned...I'll figure that out later: just my 2 cents

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In many leagues he’s going to need 5 games at a position to gain eligibility. In my dynasty he only had 10 games of OF eligibility in half a season so he didn’t have the 20 games needed to qualify for OF in 2020. Isn’t there a pretty good chance he gets 5 games of OF eligibility somewhat early on in the season? 

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