ellie826

Mike Gesicki 2019 Outlook

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14 hours ago, hard1 said:

Droppable in a start 6 te league?

If it’s a ppbcm scoring (points per bicep centimeter) league, definitely. 

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Is anyone rolling out Gesicki this week against Cleveland?  He has put up 2 clunkers in a row but Cleveland's pass defense is exploitable.

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I was was high on him a few weeks ago but at but the last couple of weeks have been terrible.   Rolling Brate out with Kelce on a bye...

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This hype train is completely done IMO. Absolutely nothing to indicate there's any reason to believe he's any more than a 4 point or so TE. Gotta be a very deep league for him to be an option. 

He's known as this combine freak but you just don't see it when you watch him. 

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7 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

How can we trust this guy? Good followed the bad and then good

Isn't that normal TE play?

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9 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

How can we trust this guy? Good followed the bad and then good

You mean like Kittle?

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I have Greg Olsen and he is now is the concussion protocol so I just might have to put a waiver in on Gesicki and put Olsen on the IR if he goes to Out. The problem is I don't have anyone to drop other than maybe Daniel Jones and I really wanted to rely on him in week 16. The positive thing is I have a bye this week and don't have to play until week 15.

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Gesicki is looking pretty appealing if both Parker and Wilson can't go. He'll be the #1 target in the offense alongside Hurns. Giants don't rate terribly against TE's, but Jabril Peppers was a big reason for that and he's gone, and they got absolutely torn up by Ertz on MNF. Dolphins will probably be trailing in the game too. Thoughts on him? It's him, OJ, or Ian Thomas for me.

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23 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Gesicki is looking pretty appealing if both Parker and Wilson can't go. He'll be the #1 target in the offense alongside Hurns. Giants don't rate terribly against TE's, but Jabril Peppers was a big reason for that and he's gone, and they got absolutely torn up by Ertz on MNF. Dolphins will probably be trailing in the game too. Thoughts on him? It's him, OJ, or Ian Thomas for me.

 

Pretty convincing analysis right here. I was considering pivoting to Gesicki as an Andrews and Engram owner.

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Any thoughts on him this week?  CIN is pretty generous on a per-target basis to TEs and he’s been receiving pretty consistent volume.

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On 12/20/2019 at 9:54 AM, BMcP said:

Any thoughts on him this week?  CIN is pretty generous on a per-target basis to TEs and he’s been receiving pretty consistent volume.

I’ll just answer my own question, I guess: you should start him....

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This guy has turned into quite a weapon. 6'6" and he can go up and get it. Like so many of the new breed of "TE,"  he looks like an oversized WR out there. Fitzpatrick has unlocked his potential, now we just hold our breath and see what happens to the Miami QB situation. Fitzpatrick played pretty well, but everyone knows he's not a long-term solution and he plays his best ball when the stakes are low and he can just sling it around. 

At the very least, Gesicki seems like a decent bet for a 60 reception, 675 yard, 7 TD season in 2020. 

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4 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

This guy has turned into quite a weapon. 6'6" and he can go up and get it. Like so many of the new breed of "TE,"  he looks like an oversized WR out there. Fitzpatrick has unlocked his potential, now we just hold our breath and see what happens to the Miami QB situation. Fitzpatrick played pretty well, but everyone knows he's not a long-term solution and he plays his best ball when the stakes are low and he can just sling it around. 

At the very least, Gesicki seems like a decent bet for a 60 reception, 675 yard, 7 TD season in 2020. 

 

He was literally  the last man standing player. It took team management tanking, multiple injuries and trades to "unlock" his potential (Allen-Stills-wilson-grant-preston-etc) so I doubt if his situation next season will allow him to be more involved. We are not even factoring in the completely lack of a running game and the loss of about 3 rbs. The problem with geiseki is he is not able to block in the schemes the coaches need the TE to block in. I wouldnt even bother wasting draft capital on him unless it was the last round and I wanted a lottery ticket. 

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44 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

He was literally  the last man standing player. It took team management tanking, multiple injuries and trades to "unlock" his potential (Allen-Stills-wilson-grant-preston-etc) so I doubt if his situation next season will allow him to be more involved. We are not even factoring in the completely lack of a running game and the loss of about 3 rbs. The problem with geiseki is he is not able to block in the schemes the coaches need the TE to block in. I wouldnt even bother wasting draft capital on him unless it was the last round and I wanted a lottery ticket. 

 

I'm always interested in hearing people who have differing opinions, especially on players who have limited track records. I often fall into the trap of extrapolating 2nd half numbers and expecting too big of a "breakout" the following year. I understand what you're saying here about just how much had to break in his favor in order for him to emerge.

Still, I think it's worth pointing out that he was a high 2nd round pick in 2018 and it's pretty well accepted at this point that Gase either didn't know how to use him or had no interest in using him. It might be a situation of not altering the scheme to fit the player(s), but there are plenty of "TE" in the league right now who primarily run routes and are rarely asked to block. I'd be surprised if Miami decides not to make Gesicki a focal point of the offense moving forward, along with Parker and Williams (if healthy). 

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37 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I'm always interested in hearing people who have differing opinions, especially on players who have limited track records. I often fall into the trap of extrapolating 2nd half numbers and expecting too big of a "breakout" the following year. I understand what you're saying here about just how much had to break in his favor in order for him to emerge.

Still, I think it's worth pointing out that he was a high 2nd round pick in 2018 and it's pretty well accepted at this point that Gase either didn't know how to use him or had no interest in using him. It might be a situation of not altering the scheme to fit the player(s), but there are plenty of "TE" in the league right now who primarily run routes and are rarely asked to block. I'd be surprised if Miami decides not to make Gesicki a focal point of the offense moving forward, along with Parker and Williams (if healthy). 

 

Agreed there are plenty of TE's that can catch and not block which makes them boom or bust but the fantasy studs can all block which means they are on the field for a high number of snaps and opportunity. Kittles-ertz-kelce-Waller and previously Gronk. Andrews is the exception but that is because the Ravens use 2 and 3 TE formations so his snaps are limited.

Flores is from the Hoodie coaching tree so I would look to see who they bring sign in the offseason and if it's primarily a blocking TE or one who can block and catch. We don't know yet what a Flores offense looks like because Flores has not had the talent to build his offense, he has been working with spare parts since day 1 and will have to build a new team via the draft. 

Also the high draft capital on Geisicki is irrelevant at this point because he is 2 seasons in and this team has demonstrated they don't care about previous draft capital if they can trade it away for something they want.

Edited by dashoe

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Agreed there are plenty of TE's that can catch and not block which makes them boom or bust but the fantasy studs can all block which means they are on the field for a high number of snaps and opportunity. Kittles-ertz-kelce-Waller and previously Gronk. Andrews is the exception but that is because the Ravens use 2 and 3 TE formations so his snaps are limited.

Flores is from the Hoodie coaching tree so I would look to see who they bring sign in the offseason and if it's primarily a blocking TE or one who can block and catch. We don't know yet what a Flores offense looks like because Flores has not had the talent to build his offense, he has been working with spare parts since day 1 and will have to build a new team via the draft. 

Also the high draft capital on Geisicki is irrelevant at this point because he is 2 seasons in and this team has demonstrated they don't care about previous draft capital if they can trade it away for something they want.

 

I think it's relevant from the standpoint of he is not someone who came out of nowhere and had a few good weeks. He's 6'6" and runs a 4.5 forty. He's the kind of guy you feed targets to. 

Jimmy Graham could never block. He had some pretty good years. There are multiple exceptions to the rule that fantasy studs can all block. 

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11 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I think it's relevant from the standpoint of he is not someone who came out of nowhere and had a few good weeks. He's 6'6" and runs a 4.5 forty. He's the kind of guy you feed targets to. 

Jimmy Graham could never block. He had some pretty good years. There are multiple exceptions to the rule that fantasy studs can all block. 

 

The Jimmy Graham comaprison is a terrible example. Jimmy arguably had the most prolific offensive minded HC in the NFL+ a winning team+an elite veteran QB who was playing lights out as a passer in Seans offense; NONE of those elements remotely exist in Miami.   I understand your thought process but it's simply not supported by  relevant facts aside from his athleticism and previous draft capital and he had a decent finish last few games

I don't see how previous draft capital is relevant to geisickis outlook when  Miami traded 2 former 1st rd picks Tunsil+Fitzpatrick for a boatload of draft picks. Miami mgmt has demonstrated draft capital is irrelevant in their rebuilding process. They have a vision they are executing and we have yet to know what that is until 2020 when they put the pieces together.  There is one thing I am certain of a pass catching TE who has issues blocking is not the cornerstone of that vision. 

Your view reminds me of the OJ Howard truthers who kept citing his athleticism and pass catching ability as a reason to be a fantasy stud but heavily discounted a Bruce Arians system and coaching philosophy. They all got burned. it is safe to say that OJ Howard as a first rd draft pick in 2017 is a better blocker and a better pass catcher than Geisiki a 2nd rd pick in 2018 and OJ barely sniffed the ball. 

geisicki major knock last 2 seasons was he couldnt block and it was difficult to put him in  certain personnel packages.  Dwayne Allen was signed to help them but he never was healthy and Geisicki and the other TE's were rotated with Geisicki being the default starter. So it took a massive amount of injuries and a couple of QB flip flops from preseason to week 13 when he finally became fantasy relevant.  Geisiki simply benefited from there was no one else to pass the ball too on a bad team and it still took him 13 weeks to make a fantasy impact. if his talent was at an elite level or transcendent of bad team play then he should have made multiple impacts starting week 1. 

So you may value him highly but to me he is a TE flyer not worth the draft capital until we see what Flores puts together in the offseason. Every draft people get burned by TE's who had a hot couple of games the previous season because the process for drafting is simply flawed.  Situation usually trumps talent in the NFL but in fantasy world people fall in love with talent because they are trying to find the next stud and they don't focus on situation

 

 

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32 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

The Jimmy Graham comaprison is a terrible example. Jimmy arguably had the most prolific offensive minded HC in the NFL+ a winning team+an elite veteran QB who was playing lights out as a passer in Seans offense; NONE of those elements remotely exist in Miami.   I understand your thought process but it's simply not supported by  relevant facts aside from his athleticism and previous draft capital and he had a decent finish last few games

I don't see how previous draft capital is relevant to geisickis outlook when  Miami traded 2 former 1st rd picks Tunsil+Fitzpatrick for a boatload of draft picks. Miami mgmt has demonstrated draft capital is irrelevant in their rebuilding process. They have a vision they are executing and we have yet to know what that is until 2020 when they put the pieces together.  There is one thing I am certain of a pass catching TE who has issues blocking is not the cornerstone of that vision. 

Your view reminds me of the OJ Howard truthers who kept citing his athleticism and pass catching ability as a reason to be a fantasy stud but heavily discounted a Bruce Arians system and coaching philosophy. They all got burned. it is safe to say that OJ Howard as a first rd draft pick in 2017 is a better blocker and a better pass catcher than Geisiki a 2nd rd pick in 2018 and OJ barely sniffed the ball. 

geisicki major knock last 2 seasons was he couldnt block and it was difficult to put him in  certain personnel packages.  Dwayne Allen was signed to help them but he never was healthy and Geisicki and the other TE's were rotated with Geisicki being the default starter. So it took a massive amount of injuries and a couple of QB flip flops from preseason to week 13 when he finally became fantasy relevant.  Geisiki simply benefited from there was no one else to pass the ball too on a bad team and it still took him 13 weeks to make a fantasy impact. if his talent was at an elite level or transcendent of bad team play then he should have made multiple impacts starting week 1. 

So you may value him highly but to me he is a TE flyer not worth the draft capital until we see what Flores puts together in the offseason. Every draft people get burned by TE's who had a hot couple of games the previous season because the process for drafting is simply flawed.  Situation usually trumps talent in the NFL but in fantasy world people fall in love with talent because they are trying to find the next stud and they don't focus on situation

 

 

 

TEs typically do very little their first year or two in the league, so Gesicki being the #12 TE in PPR on the season, #10 from week 5 on, #8 from week 10 on, and #6 from week 12 on is notable to me.

I brought up his draft capital not to say that the Dolphins are going to be committed to featuring him no matter what, but rather to show that he was a big time prospect and came into the league with pretty high expectations (which he's started to meet). The fact that the Dolphins sold off a bunch of OTHER young players who they invested high draft capital in doesn't tell me that they think nothing of Gesicki. It could mean that they simply couldn't get as large of a return for Gesicki (compared to Fitzpatrick and Tunsil) so it wasn't worth selling him for picks, and/or that they like him and feel good about his future with the team. 

Until/unless there are major changes to the offensive system and coaching philosophy, why should we compare Gesicki's situation to OJ Howard's? Gesicki figures to see continuity in the coaching staff, with Flores and O'Shea seemingly safe for at least another year, unlike Howard who had to deal with a new head coach with a new scheme/philosophy. The Dolphins will certainly add some bodies to the backfield and WR corps, but I expect Gesicki will maintain a sizable role. Howard is a good cautionary tale of how athleticism and pass catching ability can be squandered/stifled in the wrong system, but I don't see the direct connection to Gesicki/Miami. 

I don't agree that situation usually trumps talent in the NFL. It happens that way sometimes. Sometimes it's the other way around. Some teams find ways to tailor their scheme/system around their good players. Some teams waste talented players because they can't figure out how to use them and they refuse to trade them to someone who will. 

 

Edited by mjb03003

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

 

TEs typically do very little their first year or two in the league, so Gesicki being the #12 TE in PPR on the season, #10 from week 5 on, #8 from week 10 on, and #6 from week 12 on is notable to me.

I brought up his draft capital not to say that the Dolphins are going to be committed to featuring him no matter what, but rather to show that he was a big time prospect and came into the league with pretty high expectations (which he's started to meet). The fact that the Dolphins sold off a bunch of OTHER young players who they invested high draft capital in doesn't tell me that they think nothing of Gesicki. It could mean that they simply couldn't get as large of a return for Gesicki (compared to Fitzpatrick and Tunsil) so it wasn't worth selling him for picks, and/or that they like him and feel good about his future with the team. 

Until/unless there are major changes to the offensive system and coaching philosophy, why should we compare Gesicki's situation to OJ Howard's? Gesicki figures to see continuity in the coaching staff, with Flores and O'Shea seemingly safe for at least another year, unlike Howard who had to deal with a new head coach with a new scheme/philosophy. The Dolphins will certainly add some bodies to the backfield and WR corps, but I expect Gesicki will maintain a sizable role. Howard is a good cautionary tale of how athleticism and pass catching ability can be squandered/stifled in the wrong system, but I don't see the direct connection to Gesicki/Miami. 

I don't agree that situation usually trumps talent in the NFL. It happens that way sometimes. Sometimes it's the other way around. Some teams find ways to tailor their scheme/system around their good players. Some teams waste talented players because they can't figure out how to use them and they refuse to trade them to someone who will. 

 

 

Interesting you think comparing Geisicki to Jimmy graham is accurate but not OJ Howard?  And you think a TE who can't block very well  should see a ton of targets in an offense with a HC from the Belicheck tree where their TE's as well as all their pass catchers must be able to block to be in the game?

We won't find any common ground in this 😉

Edited by dashoe

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14 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Interesting you think comparing Geisicki to Jimmy graham is accurate but not OJ Howard?  And you think a TE who can't block very well  should see a ton of targets in an offense with a HC from the Belicheck tree where their TE's as well as all their pass catchers must be able to block to be in the game?

We won't find any common ground in this 😉

 

I didn't compare Gesicki to Jimmy Graham. Read the post(s). I started this by saying I thought Gesicki could have a 60/675/7 type season in 2020, numbers that would require an increase of 9 receptions, 105 yards, and 2 TDs over this year. A 60/675/7 season would have made him the TE 7/8 this year. I'm not exactly predicting a Travis Kelce/George Kittle type season here. You felt it necessary to point out that Gesicki would never be a stud fantasy TE because he can't/doesn't block. I used Graham as an example to invalidate your claim that all stud fantasy TEs can block. Gesicki does not have to be on Jimmy Graham's level physically or play for the same coach/offense to put up the type of numbers I said he might be capable of, whether he can block or not. Another example of a "TE" who doesn't block is Evan Engram, who when healthy has been a consistent top 5 player at TE. Some of these new age TE are functionally big WRs who can create mismatches against LBs and Safeties who either can't keep up with their speed or can't handle their size/athleticism. 

Gesicki has already proven he can be a weapon in the passing game without being on the field for every snap and without being a great blocking TE (which he still has time to improve, since he's young and TE is a position with notoriously slow development). As noted above he's already put up a TE1 season in PPR as a 23/24 year old 2nd year player in a bad offense. You have correctly pointed out that there was not a lot of competition for targets in Miami this season, but he coexisted very nicely alongside DeVante Parker, who finished as a top 12 WR in fantasy. Until we see the Dolphins bring in significant upgrades to their passing attack, I don't know why we would assume Gesicki's role will be diminished as a 24 year old 3rd year player coming off a mini-breakout year. 

We'll have to see what Miami does this offseason. I just read that they fired the OC, Chad O'Shea, so more scheme changes could be coming for sure. I'm just not ready to make the jump that the Miami front office/coaching staff will review the season and think Gesicki is a guy they want to stop utilizing as an athletic, seam-stretching, red-zone weapon. He doesn't need to play every down or be a great blocker to be very viable for fantasy.  

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I'm kinda excited to have him Engram and Fant in my dynasty league(got him for free)....Think he has a low TE 1 numbers next year

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