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2019-2020 Rookies

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Who does everyone think are some that could have a big impact this year outside of Zion, Ja and RJ?

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I could see Rui Hamichuri getting a lot of burn on what will be an atrocious Washington team, especially assuming Portis and Parker are gone. He might be a little light on stocks and threes, but he could be a sneaky fg% asset late. Profiles a bit like Enes Kanter for fantasy. His upside down the road could be like Lemarcus Aldridge.

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I've done some very early projections, and outside of Zion and Ja, I don't currently have anybody in the top 90 (granted things will change as free agency and trades take place).

If anybody is interested, here's the rookie projections (there's a lot of 10MPG placeholders for guys I need to see more of / unsure about how much playing time they're going to get):

https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-rookie-projections

Edited by joey2506

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I think it'a safe to say last year's class will definitely be better from a fantasy (and real life) perspective than this class. Obviously this latest class is very top heavy, then things get murky real quick. You had guys, like WCJ for example, last year who flew under the radar and actually put up great numbers in limited minutes. I'm not investing nearly as much this season as I did on last year's class. Obviously talking redraft, keeper/dynasty is different of course.

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RJ going to be very frustrating to roster.

Dynasty outside of Zion and Ja....I love Clarke, Thybulle, Goga, Hayes, Fernando

 

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I like Ja Morant, Jaxon Hayes, Darius Garland. 

Jarrett Culver really intrigues me as I feel like they are ready to move on from Andrew Wiggins.

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1 hour ago, outherebrother said:

Get those crystal balls out...

 

From Dynasty point of view, who does every think has decent long term value. 

Matisse Thybulle is someone to watch. He probably won't get much run his first season (depending on what the sixers do in free agency) but may be a good dynasty sleeper.

This guy averaged 3.5 steals and 2.3 blocks last year, could be a stocks machine down the road.

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I don't see many of these guys making an impact their first season. Zion will be good but not at his current price tag. Ja and RJ are rookie guards, that like someone else mentioned above, will be frustrating to own all season. After them and maybe a couple others, the talent level really drops off and you're looking at a lot of raw, project type players that probably won't do much this season. Of course there's always a few guys that come out of nowhere and provide production, but in redraft, I'm not planning on drafting these guys. Most of the top 10 players taken were guards, and guards almost always struggle their first season.

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Dynasty: i like Garland, Clarke, Hayes, and Culver. 

Garland, i think in 1 or 2 years will outshine Sexton and Cleveland will move on from Sexton.

Clarke: Plays big for his size. Stocks. Cause lots of mismatches 

Hayes: Blocks and C elig

Culver: Wiggins is done at Minny. if DLo lands at Minny...then perhaps Culver drops out of this list. 

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18 hours ago, larfboy said:

Dynasty: i like Garland, Clarke, Hayes, and Culver. 

Garland, i think in 1 or 2 years will outshine Sexton and Cleveland will move on from Sexton.

Clarke: Plays big for his size. Stocks. Cause lots of mismatches 

Hayes: Blocks and C elig

Culver: Wiggins is done at Minny. if DLo lands at Minny...then perhaps Culver drops out of this list. 

I don't think it's a case of either / or with Garland / Sexton. When drafting Garland they said they envision a Sexton / Garland pairing similar to Dame / CJ in Portland.

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Super long shot (basically a bold prediction), but I can see Hunter having an impact this season. Won't be guaranteed to get significant minutes out of the gate, though his elite defense could make that possible. Of course, the transition to a league where help defense and rotations are so important could mean he's brought along more slowly. The Hawks could certainly afford to do that.

I think his offense is better than people realize, with steady, continued improvement throughout his college career. He'll never be a #1 guy obviously, but he can shoot and was an above average scorer in basically every play type according to Synergy. If he can continue to develop a little more on that end, I think he can grow into a Taurean-Price type with better defense.

The big question is whether said defense will translate to stocks. It's no secret his defensive numbers were atrocious in college. While that could be partly explained through any number of college-related factors, it's no doubt a concern. But if he can manage to get them up, the complete picture looks nice as a 3 and D guy. I'll be very curious to see what those stocks look like during his first season.

 

Also like Herro in deep/super deep leagues. Heat always seem to be banged up and will need his shooting and bit of playmaking. More importantly, that FT% is insane. Even if he only gets to the line twice a game, it'll still be helpful. Points, threes, FT% and low TOs could be enough in 9-cat, depending on his FG%.

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On 6/24/2019 at 9:59 AM, qpeeters said:

Matisse Thybulle is someone to watch. He probably won't get much run his first season (depending on what the sixers do in free agency) but may be a good dynasty sleeper.

This guy averaged 3.5 steals and 2.3 blocks last year, could be a stocks machine down the road.

and in rolls JRich to town. :(

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22 hours ago, cdd10 said:

and in rolls JRich to town. :(

 

Yeah its hard to see Thybulle making an impact this year.  I see no path to him putting up any offensive numbers - low rebounds, zero assists, very low points, maybe 1 three pointer at the most.  You're basically drafting him for defensive stats only, which he might still get even in 15-20 min / night, kind of like rashaun holmes last year.  Zaire Smith also ahead of him on the depth chart.  

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Culver I'm very interested in, perhaps more so than any of the other rookies (not saying he's the best, but rather most interesting to me).  He has a chance to play big minutes off the bat.  His FG is probably very low, but decent finishing around the rim gives me hope.  I'm interested to see how his game translates - he seems to use a different rhythm / different athleticism, angles, IQ, things like how he somehow slithers his way to the rim without an elite first step, jumping off the wrong foot to give him an advantage, adjusting his shot mid-air...year one I'm thinking 10 / 4 / 3, with around a steal and a three, and half a block, maybe 24 minutes / game....but its also possible he plays well over 30 min/game.  As far as I know it's just him and Okogie at the 2, Wiggins at the 3 if he's not traded, Ro-Co / Diop at the 4.  They have no depth.  Maybe Nowell steps up into the guard rotation.  

 

Eventual upside statistically in year 3 onwards could be like Middleton / Batum or something like 15 - 18 points, 5 reb, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.8 threes, 0.8 blocks on 45% FG and 80% FT.  I'm not sure he gets there though...I could also see a scenario where his shot struggles and he never pans out.  

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Hidden in the midst of all this Kawhi speculation...Ben Simmons breaks world record as highest paid rookie in any sport

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17 minutes ago, larfboy said:

Hidden in the midst of all this Kawhi speculation...Ben Simmons breaks world record as highest paid rookie in any sport

 

This "Ben Simmons is still a rook" thing has gone TOO FAR

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22 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Yeah its hard to see Thybulle making an impact this year.  I see no path to him putting up any offensive numbers - low rebounds, zero assists, very low points, maybe 1 three pointer at the most.  You're basically drafting him for defensive stats only, which he might still get even in 15-20 min / night, kind of like rashaun holmes last year.  Zaire Smith also ahead of him on the depth chart.  

Thybulle got sent to some other team didn't he?

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2 hours ago, cdd10 said:

Thybulle got sent to some other team didn't he?

The pick he was drafted with got traded from the Celtics to 76ers, but as far as I know he's staying put in Philly. 
They did trade up a few spots to get him after all.

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Before the season I did an analysis of rookies picked in this year’s draft, including predictions for their minutes and statistical output. I hope you have found these useful, if you haven’t read them, please find them here:

Every season, I do a quick check after the last regular season games, to see how my predictions fared. I’ve decided to do an extra check this season, and publish it here. We’re a bit past the halfway point already, but it’s interesting to see which players exceeded expectations, and which didn’t. Please keep in mind that the averages will end up quite a bit different in some cases, from the current numbers, due to many rookies seeing extended playing time in late season situations, or the other way around: get their minutes crunched due to team making a run for the playoffs.

Please find the direct link to the spreadsheet with all data here:

https://perkinsfor3.wordpress.com/2020/02/04/rookies-fantasy-mid-season-analysis/

Some players which stand out:

  • Zion’s stocks haven’t translated to the NBA, yet. His rebounding is even better than anticipated.

  • Ja Morant scores a bit better than expected, and takes better care of the ball than I initially thought he would.

  • RJ Barrett is exactly who we thought he was.

  • While Culver struggled a lot early on, I think he’s on the right track. He’s a player I’d target as a buy low in dynasty settings.

  • Jaxson Hayes is a better rebounder than I believed he would be as a rail-thin rookie.

  • Believe it or not, Cam Reddish is playing better than I thought he would. I don’t think his upside is huge, though.

  • PJ Washington’s hype train has slowed down a lot, after taking off early this season. I’d be all over him if he was available in my leagues – he’s a great dynasty target, as he provides vale across the board and just needs a little extra seasoning before he becomes a habitual 1/1/1 player.

  • I love Herro’s mindset. Can’t see the Heat dealing him. Butler and Heat culture rubbing off on him very well.

  • Absolutely love Doumbouya, and he should be the only untouchable piece on that roster. I can see him post a couple of amazing lines post AS break.

  • Nickeil still struggling in limited minutes. Upside is there, stay patient in dynasty leagues.

  • Goga getting even less minutes than I feared. He’s in a bad situation, but the Pacers could make a move. Still love his upside.

  • Thybulle’s a better shooter than anticipated – he’s going to become a valuable fantasy player.

  • Ditto for Clarke.

  • Not so much for Grant Williams, who’ll always be a better real life player than fantasy asset.

  • Darius Bazley’s season has been a fun ride. His upside is among the best in this class, and his playmaking ability has yet to be utilized in OKC (something I don’t expect to happen soon, with CP there – Blake Griffin’s playmaking was evident in college, and never really materialized with CP on his team).

  • I love what I’m seeing from Little. He’s not gonna be valuable in fantasy anytime soon, though. Good pick by PDX.

  • I’m a big Mfiondu fan, as many know. His time will come. Might even get moved to another team if the Clippers are serious about bringing in a big man before the trade deadline, but wouldn’t count on it – they love his upside and skillset.

  • Jordan Poole is still atrocious.

  • I want to see the Spurs slap that reset button and deal DD, Gay and LMA. They’re not going to make the playoffs this year, and they have some nice young pieces to build around. Keldon and Samanic both are playing really well in the G-League. Pop would also love Keldon’s lack of three point shooting.

  • His minutes have been up & down, but Nic Claxton is a big talent. Brooklyn is fighting for playoff contention, and to be honest – Claxton should be a key part of their rotation going forward.

  • Bruno Fernando struggles a lot, like all other centers in ATL. They’re looking for a veteran big man. Might be a while before the game slows down for Bruno.

  • Really like what I’ve seen from Cody Martin. I think he should be a big part of Charlotte’s future plans.

  • Gafford has had extremely bad luck with his injury timing-wise, as the Bulls are now playing Kornet at center, with WCjr and Lauri both sidelined. Gafford could be back soon, and will post some great stocks games ROS.

  • Paschall has jumped on the chance to grab meaningful minutes in San Francisco. He’s not a great fantasy player due to him producing mostly popcorn stats, but a great campaign as a rookie so far.

  • Watch Shofield’s minutes going forward. Wizards could be looking to free up more playing time for him. Wizards hopefully value his ability to cover multiple positions on defense.

  • I know it won’t happen, but I really want to see more THT minutes. He’s killing it in the G-League.

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5 minutes ago, 4th and 9ers said:

An entire thread and Terence Davis is not once mentioned. Smh.

 

Same for Anfernee Simons...

 

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2 minutes ago, GrandGourou said:

 

Same for Anfernee Simons...

 

Yeeah, now he is. Someone mentioned a sophomore in a rookie thread. 

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