Simsanityy179

Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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Just now, Chrizz said:

Even with Westbrook around I think I would draft Harden with the no1 pick. Mitch and Gobert are basically the only guys with elite fg% plus blocks and their flaws stats wise are Hardens strengths, 

You think Capela will increase his bpg again? He only averaged 1.0 bpg in the final 3 months of last season. 

He's the worst of the three.  But I wouldn't be concerned about the last half of the season as he was recovering from injury.  I don't think the "Westbrook effect" will impact him much either.  In 2017-2018 he got 1.9 blocks.  The main improvement from him has been a consistently, yearly increase in FT%.  His overall value has improved every year.  He can either improve upon last year or stay the same.  But I don't expect regression like others do.

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19 hours ago, Chrizz said:

His minutes are really hard to guess with Randle, Portis, Gibson and Morris around. Why did they draft all these bigs lol . Knicks things I guess.

This is all I can think about when I see his name.  I don't think I'll be owning him this year.

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I wish every bad team are the Hawks in the sense that feeding young guys as much minutes as possible is the priority. 

 

Then there's teams like the Knicks who have a delusion, who haven't been good since the days of Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell by the way, of competing. All of them guys are going to play. Fizdale will change his thinking and philosophy every week.

 

And some want to draft this kid in the 2ND ROUND!? Insanity!?

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You're being generous calling them good back then.  That's a team that wouldn't get out of the second round if not for the strike shortened season.

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't this guy just conclude his rookie season with a 25th per game average rank over the last three months, and a 14th per game average rank over the last two months, all in roughly 25 minutes per game?

 

Anyone saying 2nd round value "seems like a stretch" or thinks he has "outside the top 75 downside" is out of their mind.

 

You don't need to draft him early to enjoy the rewards. Just make sure nobody else takes him before you.

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7 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't this guy just conclude his rookie season with a 25th per game average rank over the last three months, and a 14th per game average rank over the last two months, all in roughly 25 minutes per game?

 

Anyone saying 2nd round value "seems like a stretch" or thinks he has "outside the top 75 downside" is out of their mind.

 

You don't need to draft him early to enjoy the rewards. Just make sure nobody else takes him before you.

I don’t think you know what downside means, if you’re going to post like that.  Or you’re being deliberately obtuse.  For every player there is a range of possibilities, downside representing the lowest possible limit of what they will achieve. While the numbers you posted are correct, the sample size is small.  His value is almost entirely anchored by blocks and there is a lot of variance to blocks. Also, the knicks have a crowded front court, with unreliable coach.  There’s no mistake that coaches tend to unleash their young players once they’re out of the playoff hunt. But will he give MitchRob run for the entire season?  Not to mention his propensity to foul out.  I certainly acknowledge that he can have second round value.  Anyone who gets three blocks can hit that value.  We’ve seen that won’t Stifle,

prime Ibaka, Whiteside.  The reason why I’m skeptical about first round value is that of these only Ibaka ever achieved borderline first round value and he has more statistical diversity, eg he sometimes hits threes and has a better FT percentage.  So I think he has that upside.  But I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his potential downside either, which is that his finish last season was an outlier, and he doesn’t get over 20

mpg playing time.  I’ve noticed that a lot of this forum. He can hit second round value.  Yes, he can.  But “can” soon becomes “will” and now anything less becomes a disappointment.  The player’s downside and any risk associated quickly becomes discarded. Anyone who brings up risk is an enemy.  Confirmation Bias.

 

Same thing happened with Jarrett Allen last year.  Some otherwise intelligent people said he could get three blocks.  The echo chamber took that and ran with it.  He became a third round pick. I said I think he can improve, maybe be top 75, and that’s exactly where he ended up.  The funny thing is I just drafted Allen in the 8th round in a dynasty league with some of the same people who said he was third round value just last year.  

 

They’ve moved onto a new toy.  They moved onto MitchRob.  Next year it will be someone else.  

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9 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don’t think you know what downside means, if you’re going to post like that.  Or you’re being deliberately obtuse.  For every player there is a range of possibilities, downside representing the lowest possible limit of what they will achieve. While the numbers you posted are correct, the sample size is small.  His value is almost entirely anchored by blocks and there is a lot of variance to blocks. Also, the knicks have a crowded front court, with unreliable coach.  There’s no mistake that coaches tend to unleash their young players once they’re out of the playoff hunt. But will he give MitchRob run for the entire season?  Not to mention his propensity to foul out.  I certainly acknowledge that he can have second round value.  Anyone who gets three blocks can hit that value.  We’ve seen that won’t Stifle,

prime Ibaka, Whiteside.  The reason why I’m skeptical about first round value is that of these only Ibaka ever achieved borderline first round value and he has more statistical diversity, eg he sometimes hits threes and has a better FT percentage.  So I think he has that upside.  But I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his potential downside either, which is that his finish last season was an outlier, and he doesn’t get over 20

mpg playing time.  I’ve noticed that a lot of this forum. He can hit second round value.  Yes, he can.  But “can” soon becomes “will” and now anything less becomes a disappointment.  The player’s downside and any risk associated quickly becomes discarded. Anyone who brings up risk is an enemy.  Confirmation Bias.

 

Same thing happened with Jarrett Allen last year.  Some otherwise intelligent people said he could get three blocks.  The echo chamber took that and ran with it.  He became a third round pick. I said I think he can improve, maybe be top 75, and that’s exactly where he ended up.  The funny thing is I just drafted Allen in the 8th round in a dynasty league with some of the same people who said he was third round value just last year.  

 

They’ve moved onto a new toy.  They moved onto MitchRob.  Next year it will be someone else.  

Citing Serge Ibaka's years of "borderline first round value" only further supports my position.

 

From 2011 to 2014, Ibaka's 9-Cat ranks were 11, 11, and 10; however, the "statistical diversity" you claim Ibaka provided during that time is non-existent. He averaged only 12.5 points, 8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 threes, 0.4 steals, 1.4 turnovers and shot 74.2% from the free throw line on limited attempts. FG% was his second strongest category (54.8% on 9.9 attempts per game). Ironically, Robinson's FG% z-score from last year (in only 20 minutes per game) was nearly identical to that of Ibaka (1.52 vs. 1.53).

 

Should Big Mitch reach 30 minutes per game, as Ibaka did, I believe his statistical upside is 65% FG, 65% FT, 0.2 threes, 14 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.5 steals, 3.0 blocks, and 1 turnover, which would put him squarely in the first round at season’s end. In addition, Robinson doesn't carry the shutdown risk of many others. The downside? Maybe 60% FG, 60% FT, 10 points, 8 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1 steal, 2.5 blocks, and 1 turnover, which is still a top 60 season.

 

How Mitch gets to 30 minutes is the biggest question, but I believe your "crowded front court" narrative is an overreaction. Essentially, from last year to this year, the Knicks swapped:

 

(1)  DeAndre Jordan - 29.7 mpg (98% at center)

(2)  Enes Kanter – 25.6 mpg (96% at center)

(2) Luke Kornet - 17 mpg (67% at center),

(3) Noah Vonleh - 25.3 mpg (27% at center)

 

for

 

(1) Bobby Portis - 26 mpg (55% at center last season / 45% for career)

(2) Julius Randle - 30.6 mpg (26% at center / 33% for career)

(3) Taj Gibson - 24.1 mpg (11% at center last season / 4% for career)

 

It appears to me the Knicks will give Big Mitch every opportunity to play 30 minutes a night, though foul trouble will often hamper his ability to get there.

 

Having said all that, I do not plan to draft him in the second round as there are more guaranteed options available and I'm sure he will slip a bit. However, I will be disappointed if I allow him to fall and fail to land the pick at the right time.

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30 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Citing Serge Ibaka's years of "borderline first round value" only further supports my position.

 

From 2011 to 2014, Ibaka's 9-Cat ranks were 11, 11, and 10; however, the "statistical diversity" you claim Ibaka provided during that time is non-existent. He averaged only 12.5 points, 8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 threes, 0.4 steals, 1.4 turnovers and shot 74.2% from the free throw line on limited attempts. FG% was his second strongest category (54.8% on 9.9 attempts per game). Ironically, Robinson's FG% z-score from last year (in only 20 minutes per game) was nearly identical to that of Ibaka (1.52 vs. 1.53).

 

Should Big Mitch reach 30 minutes per game, as Ibaka did, I believe his statistical upside is 65% FG, 65% FT, 0.2 threes, 14 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.5 steals, 3.0 blocks, and 1 turnover, which would put him squarely in the first round at season’s end. In addition, Robinson doesn't carry the shutdown risk of many others. The downside? Maybe 60% FG, 60% FT, 10 points, 8 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1 steal, 2.5 blocks, and 1 turnover, which is still a top 60 season.

 

How Mitch gets to 30 minutes is the biggest question, but I believe your "crowded front court" narrative is an overreaction. Essentially, from last year to this year, the Knicks swapped:

 

(1)  DeAndre Jordan - 29.7 mpg (98% at center)

(2)  Enes Kanter – 25.6 mpg (96% at center)

(2) Luke Kornet - 17 mpg (67% at center),

(3) Noah Vonleh - 25.3 mpg (27% at center)

 

for

 

(1) Bobby Portis - 26 mpg (55% at center last season / 45% for career)

(2) Julius Randle - 30.6 mpg (26% at center / 33% for career)

(3) Taj Gibson - 24.1 mpg (11% at center last season / 4% for career)

 

It appears to me the Knicks will give Big Mitch every opportunity to play 30 minutes a night, though foul trouble will often hamper his ability to get there.

 

Having said all that, I do not plan to draft him in the second round as there are more guaranteed options available and I'm sure he will slip a bit. However, I will be disappointed if I allow him to fall and fail to land the pick at the right time.

Good analysis.  You maybe right.  I think there’s a lot of risk picking him around 2/3.  My only point is to avoid the hype spinning out of control the way Allen did.  MitchRob *can* be a hit, I never denied that.  

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Posted (edited)

I think this debate is simple. Nobody is arguing that he can’t be a 2nd rounder next year. The question is why take an unproven player at his ceiling who’s minutes arent even guaranteed?

Every single year we have this discussion on some young player. A few years ago people were taking Nerlens Noel in the 2nd/3rd based on his post ASB numbers. That dude was an absolute dud that year. People drafted Myles Turner 2 years ago at his absolute ceiling when PG left, and were extremely disappointed. Hell even Jarret Allen was going early last year and people swore 2 blks per game was guaranteed. Need more examples look at Mitchells, and Simmons ADP last year compared to where they finished. I knew they were extremely overvalued but atleast they had guaranteed minutes. Every year its the same hype train with different names.

I understand we all want to be right with that shiny new breakout player but if you’re trying to win there is zero reason to take an unproven rookie at his ceiling. Especially based on a 20 something game sample size. 

Im a huge fan of this guys defence  but Drafting Mitch in the 2nd round is a huge risk with very little chance for reward. Its understated how difficult it is for players to even post 2nd round value.

 

 

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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9 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

I think this debate is simple. Nobody is arguing that he can’t be a 2nd rounder next year. The question is why take an unproven player at his ceiling who’s minutes arent even guaranteed?

Every single year we have this discussion on some young player. A few years ago people were taking Nerlens Noel in the 2nd/3rd based on his post ASB numbers. That dude was an absolute dud that year. People drafted Myles Turner 2 years ago at his absolute ceiling when PG left, and were extremely disappointed. Hell even Jarret Allen was going early last year and people swore 2 blks per game was guaranteed. Need more examples look at Mitchells, and Simmons ADP last year compared to where they finished. I knew they were extremely overvalued but atleast they had guaranteed minutes. Every year its the same hype train with different names.

I understand we all want to be right with that shiny new breakout player but if you’re trying to win there is zero reason to take an unproven rookie at his ceiling. Especially based on a 20 something game sample size. 

Im a huge fan of this guys defence  but Drafting Mitch in the 2nd round is a huge risk with very little chance for reward. Its understated how difficult it is for players to even post 2nd round value.

 

 

I feel offended , I fell for every hype train 🤦‍♂️

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Man... he's probably going to finish the season with top 30 value but considering it's all in ridiculous blocks, and decent rbs low to he will not be as valuable as his ranking unless on the right team. His fg% doesnt matter of hes only scorong 10 a game. Yeah him and one other good blocker will win you blocks every week, but can you make up the points 3s assists and ft%? Is it really worth blocks? Not sure. I'd say it's not. I'd reach for the 6th round and still try to secure blocks another way. He may be ranked very high end of season but I'd much rather shoot for a more versatile player. Hes also going to be so overhyped that people will over pay and overdraft for him just like jamal Murray last year. 

I'd take him in the 5th or 6th, and pay $20 for him. I doubt he will find my way on to any teams this year given the hype and per game rank from last year. I'll try to grab Horford in the 7th next year or pay $17 for him instead. 

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17 hours ago, johnval1362 said:

Man... he's probably going to finish the season with top 30 value but considering it's all in ridiculous blocks, and decent rbs low to he will not be as valuable as his ranking unless on the right team. His fg% doesnt matter of hes only scorong 10 a game. Yeah him and one other good blocker will win you blocks every week, but can you make up the points 3s assists and ft%? Is it really worth blocks? Not sure. I'd say it's not. I'd reach for the 6th round and still try to secure blocks another way. He may be ranked very high end of season but I'd much rather shoot for a more versatile player. Hes also going to be so overhyped that people will over pay and overdraft for him just like jamal Murray last year. 

I'd take him in the 5th or 6th, and pay $20 for him. I doubt he will find my way on to any teams this year given the hype and per game rank from last year. I'll try to grab Horford in the 7th next year or pay $17 for him instead. 

I agree with you...but hope that someone does reach in the 2nd round. He's very dud prone because of his fouling issues and inability to score. It's much better to take 2 shot blockers that can equal Mitch's block output, in lets say rounds 5 through 8, maybe like Whiteside + Brolo or Allen or something like this. I'm sure most would rather have those 2 at their prices than Mitch at 2nd or even 3rd round. In 2nd and 3rd rounds you almost always are going to need multicat studs that fill up mostly everything, if not it's very difficult to make up the counting stats as you go unless you strike gold with every breakout and late rounder which is always a possibility but risky and lucky strategy. 

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Target Drummond over MitchRob in the 2nd round. I'll take a flier on him in the 4th round, if he's available. 

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Just now, Simsanityy179 said:

Honestly no one is going to draft him in the 2nd round , shouldn’t even be the topic of discussion 

Mike Gallagher might.  😊😊

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Never seen a hype train like this before, he'll be great but disappointment is guaranteed when you expect the second coming of christ. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Honestly no one is going to draft him in the 2nd round , shouldn’t even be the topic of discussion 

lmao right?  It's a moot point, because even the people who are like "He'll return second round value" don't believe it enough to actually put their money where their mouth is.  People think he MIGHT return that value, but they're not sure enough to pick him there.

They'll pick Kyrie or Rudy or Drummond or Booker just like always.

Edited by Pyschout
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9 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

Never seen a hype train like this before, he'll be great but disappointment is guaranteed when you expect the second coming of christ. 

Yeah, "Zion in the 1st round" hype is still no.1

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I owe Mitchell Robinson for what he did for me last season, but no way in hell I'm drafting him in the 2nd round.

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One of the most absurd hype trains I've ever seen in the history of fantasy b'ball.

 

This kid is hardly a 4th round pick.

I won't touch him above the 5th round, period.

 

Has some bright spots and interesting aspects in his game. But it is also still too 'raw' in almost every area. 

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The overabundance of bigs.  The presence of Fizdale.  Yes, this has the makings of the next overhyped disappointment.  

The talent is there for him to be Rudy Gobert, but I just really don't trust Fizdale. 

I am not afraid and like to take risks, that is part of what makes fantasy fun.  But unless preseason shows something different, Myles and/or Brook is a better play.  I'll let this be someone else's headache.   

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Posted (edited)

Okay, to those who aren't drafting him in the 2nd round (LMAO), what is an acceptable early pick and what is too late--must grab now pick for him?

 

Because I took a risk with Ayton last season. Went John Collins in 4th, 5th Ayton (RIP blocks). Don't quote me on this, but boy was I excited when he had monster stats during the Summer League or preseason, boy was I so sure I would be at least 3rd in blocks, boy was I wrong. Wouldn't hesitate to draft Mitch in the 4th/5th knowing his capabilities. 

Edited by MysticPeak

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1 hour ago, MysticPeak said:

Okay, to those who aren't drafting him in the 2nd round (LMAO), what is an acceptable early pick and what is too late--must grab now pick for him?

 

I'd say 4th as acceptable risk, 5th - must grab. The question now is in how many drafts I'll be able to take that acceptable risk 🙂

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11 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Okay, to those who aren't drafting him in the 2nd round (LMAO), what is an acceptable early pick and what is too late--must grab now pick for him?

 

Because I took a risk with Ayton last season. Went John Collins in 4th, 5th Ayton (RIP blocks). Don't quote me on this, but boy was I excited when he had monster stats during the Summer League or preseason, boy was I so sure I would be at least 3rd in blocks, boy was I wrong. Wouldn't hesitate to draft Mitch in the 4th/5th knowing his capabilities. 

 

I'm going to say 3rd round if you want him, especially if you have 2 high scoring players already (or two low scoring players and are punting points).  The potential for a top 10 player in the 3rd round...can help win your league.  Maybe paired well with Jokic who doesn't get blocks?  So you have Jokic + Guard/Wing + Mitch.  That's a super solid start to your team imo.  

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