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Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I agree with you.  It’s also frustrating that no one ever does the math.  If there’s a week in which Mitch goes 15/20 then suppose you have some volume scorers who go the average at 38/80.  Combine them and your team is now 53% FG.  That’s great.  Mitchrob can easily help a team go up a few percentage points. That’s huge.  That’s going from 47 (below average) to 50% (very good).

 

Absolutely. In my 14 team money league the difference between 2nd in FG% and 5th is a whole is a whopping .0190% (I'm ignoring 1st because guys like MitchRob have me safely positioned there). Then the difference between 6th and 13th is .0141%. In most competitive leagues the FG%s are gonna be razor close, and for H2H cat leagues the playoffs are often a coin flip for the FG% cat if you haven't already cultivated a proper punt squad by securing guys like MitchRob in the early-mid rounds of your draft

 

*As an aside I was pushing hard for my league to shift to auction this year but it's been snake since its inception 6 years ago and the entrenched managers are militantly resistant to change. Snake makes it highly difficult to draft a legitimate punt build because you of course have to ignore the enticing ADPs and "reach" for players in order to secure them and keep your build on track, particularly in the case of a 14 team league where you're going upwards of 27 players between picks depending on your draft order. The fact that it's highly difficult and risky to draft a punt build in snake does give some legitimacy to the argument that punting under these conditions is an exercise in futility, but tbh I really just love the concept and strategy involved.  All or nothing amirite. Lol

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3 minutes ago, HispasianTuna said:

 

Why would you need to punt FT% by drafting Mitch? He shoots around 67% through both years but averages 1 trip to the line per game. If he was a volume free throw shooter, then I'd understand, but he doesn't go to the line enough to make or break your week in FT%. 

You are not punting because of Mitch, he is just bad there not terrible. But what players are you going to pick in punt pts, 3pt build? Usually guys who are good scorers and 3pt shooters are good at ft%, you are not going for that so there is a good chance that you will go for guys like Drummond and Simmons and because of them you'll be punting ft%. 

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10 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

You are not punting because of Mitch, he is just bad there not terrible. But what players are you going to pick in punt pts, 3pt build? Usually guys who are good scorers and 3pt shooters are good at ft%, you are not going for that so there is a good chance that you will go for guys like Drummond and Simmons and because of them you'll be punting ft%. 

 

The only reason why I responded was because you mentioned that by drafting Mitch, you're more than likely punting FT%. In reality, that's not true. 

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13 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

You are not punting because of Mitch, he is just bad there not terrible. But what players are you going to pick in punt pts, 3pt build? Usually guys who are good scorers and 3pt shooters are good at ft%, you are not going for that so there is a good chance that you will go for guys like Drummond and Simmons and because of them you'll be punting ft%. 

In the only league I drafted him I punted points/Ft.  it was a snake otherwise I wasn’t targeting him.  I traded my first which would have been Beal for Lowry, Draymond, Teague.  My 2nd was Stifle, my third was Capela, and my fourth was MitchRob.  Actually after the draft I decided I could soft punt points and ft so traded Stifle and Teague for Pascal and LaVine.  So now the top half of my team is Lowry, LaVine, Draymond, Pascal, Capela, MitchRob.  To your point. No, I didn’t intend to draft him and punt points, this is what snake forces you into.  I’m sort of soft punting points/Ft but I don’t think it’s a hard punt.  I don’t think punting points is de facto punting FT either, lots of medium scorers such as Jokic, Turner, Draymond, Roco, Oubre. Ball, Smart, Beverley (off the top of my head) who gain value in punt points without hard punting FT.  These guys have a lot in common, most of them are “metrics” players who derive most of their value from stocks and efficiency as opposed to points and threes. 

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

In the only league I drafted him I punted points/Ft.  it was a snake otherwise I wasn’t targeting him.  I traded my first which would have been Beal for Lowry, Draymond, Teague.  My 2nd was Stifle, my third was Capela, and my fourth was MitchRob.  Actually after the draft I decided I could soft punt points and ft so traded Stifle and Teague for Pascal and LaVine.  So now the top half of my team is Lowry, LaVine, Draymond, Pascal, Capela, MitchRob.  To your point. No, I didn’t intend to draft him and punt points, this is what snake forces you into.  I’m sort of soft punting points/Ft but I don’t think it’s a hard punt.  I don’t think punting points is de facto punting FT either, lots of medium scorers such as Jokic, Turner, Draymond, Roco, Oubre. Ball, Smart, Beverley (off the top of my head) who gain value in punt points without hard punting FT.  These guys have a lot in common, most of them are “metrics” players who derive most of their value from stocks and efficiency as opposed to points and threes. 

Is your Ego really that weak that you feel to need to like every posts that doesn't agree with my points. 
Look at your precious basketballmosnter rankings. Players with strong FT%, usually have PTS and 3pts as 1st, 2nd or 3rd strongest category. Those kind of players lose incredible amount of value in those kind of punt builds, so you will tend to look for some other players that are more fitting to your build. 

No need for further talking, you are playing in a league where someone is willing to trade Siakam and Lavine for Gobert. Now your claims and behaviour make sense. Are you playing in a league by yourself maybe? Gobert who is curenntly 102 ranked player for 19th place Siakam + Lavine who is also higher ranked than Gobert. Like how you worded that, I decided and made clearly impossible trade where someone is buying-high player who is playing his worst basketball ever. In a competitive leagues when players play bad, others try to sent weaker players to trade for them, not better. Enjoy in a leagues by yourself, you will not get a response for me anytime soon. 

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12 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

Is your Ego really that weak that you feel to need to like every posts that doesn't agree with my points. 
Look at your precious basketballmosnter rankings. Players with strong FT%, usually have PTS and 3pts as 1st, 2nd or 3rd strongest category. Those kind of players lose incredible amount of value in those kind of punt builds, so you will tend to look for some other players that are more fitting to your build. 

No need for further talking, you are playing in a league where someone is willing to trade Siakam and Lavine for Gobert. Now your claims and behaviour make sense. Are you playing in a league by yourself maybe? Gobert who is curenntly 102 ranked player for 19th place Siakam + Lavine who is also higher ranked than Gobert. Like how you worded that, I decided and made clearly impossible trade where someone is buying-high player who is playing his worst basketball ever. In a competitive leagues when players play bad, others try to sent weaker players to trade for them, not better. Enjoy in a leagues by yourself, you will not get a response for me anytime soon. 

Is your ego so high that you think any of this is about you?  That I even remember your user name or care?  It’s about discussing MitchRob.

 

I play mostly $500 leagues.  Some then are $100 and $200.  Would you like to battle where I screenshot my leagues and my ranking in them then you post yours?  Or I’ll post my leaguesafe from last year.  I don’t think you’d want that.  Anyway that trade was made after the draft but prior to the start of the season when Stifle’s value dropped.  And you’re also wrong about that account.  Most experienced owners are not insanely reactive about early bad starts.  

 

You’re also committing the logical fallacy that I think is called modus tollens but I’m not certain.  Which is that you think because most of the good FT shooters are good in threes and points that most players who are bad in points must also be bad in FT.  Punting isn’t about making that category as bad as possible, it’s about neglecting it in order to focus on other things.  On a punt points team you could have very strong FT by having one anchor bc the rest of your team would be low volume.  

Edited by StifleTower2

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17 minutes ago, AomineDaiki05 said:

You are going a bit to far to justify you bad pick. Now you are telling me that you are making your whole strategy based on the fact that you will draft MichRob. Lol. 
I'd like to see that punt build. You forgot about FT%, there is a good chance that you will be punting that too. Doubt that you'll be that good in assists too. You'll need to be really, really good in other 5 categories, and even then you are basicly saying I can win only 5 categories per week. Puff, bad schedule and you can lose 7-2 easily.
People are talking about punt builds, but in reality those kind of builds aren't that easy to achieve. 

If you somehow manage to achieve it than sure, he would be top good. More realistic scenario is that you will be left with PUNT TRY build, with couple of good categories and a lot of bad ones. 

 

It depends on how rigid you want to be with it and how much of a buffer you want in your targeted cats. In H2H 9 cats it only takes 5 to win your playoff round, but you have to get to the playoffs first so that's obviously something to consider throughout the reg season.  My team hard punts PTS/3PM and I'm definitely losing FT% most weeks and 3PM is about 50/50 depending on matchup and whether I decide to waiver stream a 3PM specialist.  I'm fine with that though because even with the current Draymond and MitchRob situations I'm pretty much untouchable in REB/STL/BLK/FG%/TO and I'm still top 5 (of 14) in AST even if Draymond shuts it down.  A 6-3 or 5-4 playoff round win gets you just as far as a 9-0 or 8-1 win, except with a punt build you should be far more assured of winning those 6 or 5 targeted cats if you've buffered them enough to account for weird variance.  It's also worth considering that volume scorers are far more likely to have a catastrophic off night than are defensive/rebounding specialists and facilitators.  I do believe that high level defensive, rebounding and playmaking production are generally more consistent over the course of a week because the numbers are typically a residual result of effort and system as opposed to having a hot/cold hand or drawing a weak/strong defender. A quick example of buffering cats and consistency is Andre Drummond last week going 6-20 from the field one night, yet he still delivered 24 REB with 4 stocks that game and I ultimately finished the week above .500 FG% because I own 6 of the top 35 FG% values in the league. Of course if ironman contract-season Drummond goes down for the season then I'm effectively ruined, but I'm willing to roll the dice with that

 

ALL THAT BEING SAID, and to your point, there's a heavy amount of inherent risk in attempting to build a reliable punt team in a H2H 9 cat snake draft format.  You have to reach for players above their ADP, you have to monitor your target cats relative to the rest of the league both in real time during the draft and then throughout the season, you're doing a constant balancing test weighing buffering target cats vs investing extra capital to bolster a 6th or 7th cat. And at the end of the day it generally fails more often than not.  But in a highly competitive deep league I feel like you must take risks in order to separate yourself from the pack. If it misses, well on to next season but when it hits, it REALLY hits 

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1 hour ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

 

It depends on how rigid you want to be with it and how much of a buffer you want in your targeted cats. In H2H 9 cats it only takes 5 to win your playoff round, but you have to get to the playoffs first so that's obviously something to consider throughout the reg season.  My team hard punts PTS/3PM and I'm definitely losing FT% most weeks and 3PM is about 50/50 depending on matchup and whether I decide to waiver stream a 3PM specialist. 

 

I just re-read this and it makes no sense, lol. I'm getting my teams confused.  The team I'm referring to intended to hard punt PTS/3PM but as it's unfolded I'm currently hard punting PTS (literally 14th of 14) and FT% while 3PM is iffy week to week depending on matchup. I didn't plan it but a few of the guys I drafted for AST/STL have been hitting some 3s.  It's still not a cat I'm depending on and I likely won't try to bolster it so I'm essentially punting PTS/3PM/FT%

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1 hour ago, PUNTSQUAD said:

 

It depends on how rigid you want to be with it and how much of a buffer you want in your targeted cats. In H2H 9 cats it only takes 5 to win your playoff round, but you have to get to the playoffs first so that's obviously something to consider throughout the reg season.  My team hard punts PTS/3PM and I'm definitely losing FT% most weeks and 3PM is about 50/50 depending on matchup and whether I decide to waiver stream a 3PM specialist.  I'm fine with that though because even with the current Draymond and MitchRob situations I'm pretty much untouchable in REB/STL/BLK/FG%/TO and I'm still top 5 (of 14) in AST even if Draymond shuts it down.  A 6-3 or 5-4 playoff round win gets you just as far as a 9-0 or 8-1 win, except with a punt build you should be far more assured of winning those 6 or 5 targeted cats if you've buffered them enough to account for weird variance.  It's also worth considering that volume scorers are far more likely to have a catastrophic off night than are defensive/rebounding specialists and facilitators.  I do believe that high level defensive, rebounding and playmaking production are generally more consistent over the course of a week because the numbers are typically a residual result of effort and system as opposed to having a hot/cold hand or drawing a weak/strong defender. A quick example of buffering cats and consistency is Andre Drummond last week going 6-20 from the field one night, yet he still delivered 24 REB with 4 stocks that game and I ultimately finished the week above .500 FG% because I own 6 of the top 35 FG% values in the league. Of course if ironman contract-season Drummond goes down for the season then I'm effectively ruined, but I'm willing to roll the dice with that

 

ALL THAT BEING SAID, and to your point, there's a heavy amount of inherent risk in attempting to build a reliable punt team in a H2H 9 cat snake draft format.  You have to reach for players above their ADP, you have to monitor your target cats relative to the rest of the league both in real time during the draft and then throughout the season, you're doing a constant balancing test weighing buffering target cats vs investing extra capital to bolster a 6th or 7th cat. And at the end of the day it generally fails more often than not.  But in a highly competitive deep league I feel like you must take risks in order to separate yourself from the pack. If it misses, well on to next season but when it hits, it REALLY hits 

Well said. 
I'd just like to see your team if possible. I am a huge sceptic when it comes to forum people, expecially fantasy ones, there are a lot of people playing by themselves showing with teams like HArden, Towns, Leonard, Emiid + more which is of course not possible. So I am genuinely interested how this sort of build looks like when everything goes right. 

 

Just now, PUNTSQUAD said:

 

I just re-read this and it makes no sense, lol. I'm getting my teams confused.  The team I'm referring to intended to hard punt PTS/3PM but as it's unfolded I'm currently hard punting PTS (literally 14th of 14) and FT% while 3PM is iffy week to week depending on matchup. I didn't plan it but a few of the guys I drafted for AST/STL have been hitting some 3s.  It's still not a cat I'm depending on and I likely won't try to bolster it so I'm essentially punting PTS/3PM/FT%

Most of the times it doesn't matter if it makes sense, we all read what we wan't to read and not what it is written :)
Yeah, punting those three categories makes perfect sense. But, when mock drafting I found it hard to pull off. The problems were assists and steals, and even in some cases without Drummond rebounds. 
Still looks like a fun thing to try, this could be a league winning build in some less competitive leagues. 

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Anyone know when espn will make him eligible for ir? Iirc if a player expected to miss 3 or more games they get the out tag. He’s already missed one and reports say he’s gonna miss two more.

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Just now, CodeRed said:

Anyone know when espn will make him eligible for ir? Iirc if a player expected to miss 3 or more games they get the out tag. He’s already missed one and reports say he’s gonna miss two more.

 

Yes, in Yahoo too. 

I'm in a hurry. Please INJ TAG !!!

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1 hour ago, Tonimn said:

 

Yes, in Yahoo too. 

I'm in a hurry. Please INJ TAG !!!

It was just updated on espn 

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I'll preface by saying that I like Mitchell Robinson. I think he's very skilled, though a bit raw offensively. Having said that, when I saw the preseason rankings I knew that I was not going to own him anywhere this year, because I had a lot of doubt that he could return value equal to the price that he was going for. I know is early, as we're only 3 weeks into the season, but the writing is on the wall. I still doubt that he'll end the season in the top 50.

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10 minutes ago, Ajax said:

I'll preface by saying that I like Mitchell Robinson. I think he's very skilled, though a bit raw offensively. Having said that, when I saw the preseason rankings I knew that I was not going to own him anywhere this year, because I had a lot of doubt that he could return value equal to the price that he was going for. I know is early, as we're only 3 weeks into the season, but the writing is on the wall. I still doubt that he'll end the season in the top 50.

thats surprising because he did finish top 50 last year in 20 mpg lol...

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Yeah Fizdale's gone soon.  But really Mills needs to go too.  He's been just as bad in constructing this roster...anyway....FREE MITCH but first needs to get healthy...

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Has any one of you traded him away or traded for him? If so what value have you gotten? Or given to get? 

Edited by stickman786

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5 hours ago, WhatIsThisWizardry said:

thats surprising because he did finish top 50 last year in 20 mpg lol...

 

He was drafted as a top 50 player pretty much every league I'm in......

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"Fizz" is trending on Twitter, and here I thought he got fired. I'm highly disappointed.

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