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Mitchell Robinson 2019-2020 Outlook

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Yup I think he'll go a lot higher than I'd be willing to take him 

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Just listened to a podcast on rotoworld about how he's now DND for Gallagher bc of his minor knee issue.  They're so overactive it's insane.  First, he's a second round player based on one two month sample size from one season.  Now he's gone from being a second round pick to completely DND based on one issue that won't keep him out of the season opener.

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7 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Just listened to a podcast on rotoworld about how he's now DND for Gallagher bc of his minor knee issue.  They're so overactive it's insane.  First, he's a second round player based on one two month sample size from one season.  Now he's gone from being a second round pick to completely DND based on one issue that won't keep him out of the season opener.

Gallagher is basically the new Bruski at rotoworld. 

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7 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Just listened to a podcast on rotoworld about how he's now DND for Gallagher bc of his minor knee issue.  They're so overactive it's insane.  First, he's a second round player based on one two month sample size from one season.  Now he's gone from being a second round pick to completely DND based on one issue that won't keep him out of the season opener.

 

I think hes obsessed with injuries in general. his rankings are always based on how durable players were in the past. 

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7 minutes ago, Chrizz said:

 

I think hes obsessed with injuries in general. his rankings are always based on how durable players were in the past. 

Ain’t that the truth.  But he’s hypocritical af.  He equates age to injury risk.  He won’t draft LMA bc he’s old but he will overdraft Collins who has missed at least ten games.  

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definitely overhyped. a block specialist. not gonna come near his adp.

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Of course overhyped - one category player can't be compared some versatile players. FG% is also high, but he took only 4,4 shots per game last season, it doesn't help. Never I consider him in TOP50.

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11 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Ain’t that the truth.  But he’s hypocritical af.  He equates age to injury risk.  He won’t draft LMA bc he’s old but he will overdraft Collins who has missed at least ten games.  

This is Gallagher's problem. He's a hype machine on break-out potential guys. Even if he gets a few right he'd still flunk most season because he gambles on too many (at least judging by his rankings). I usually try for two break-out guys that I'm really high on and then just go for guys than fall in my rankings, lots of solid vets tend to do that.

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Although I criticized this kid earlier, I believe he would be a great value pick at around round 5-6.

 

The problem is that there is no way this kid remains on the board after round 5.

A solid high-risk high-reward pick, but the reward is overly hyped. Simple as that.

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14 hours ago, Chrizz said:

 

I think hes obsessed with injuries in general. his rankings are always based on how durable players were in the past. 

 

Obsessed with injuries and playoff schedules. Every time I listen to any rankings podcast I have to be prepared to listen to 15+ minutes of griping about so-and-so's "god awful" playoff schedule. One day I want some consideration for the "roto" in rotoworld.

 

 

Back on topic though, he finished with late 4th round value this past season, are people thinking he's gonna be worse to want to pick him in the 5th/6th? Or is his statset just not something you value?

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3 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

Although I criticized this kid earlier, I believe he would be a great value pick at around round 5-6.

 

The problem is that there is no way this kid remains on the board after round 5.

A solid high-risk high-reward pick, but the reward is overly hyped. Simple as that.

I’ve done three early drafts already and he’s gone fourth round each time.  I actually got him twice, once in a punt points/FT team.  Per usual, it’s not that he’s a useless player.  It’s that I think he won’t live up to the hype.  I have little confidence that he can be a second round player, based solely on his performance the last row months of one season, given their depth in the front court, Fiz, his minor knee injury, propensity to foul, etc.  But like every player with intriguing potential it’s about finding where he might work.  Punt points/Ft is a fairly common build and I think he’s easily going to be top 30 there. 

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What's interesting about the Mitchell Robinson hype is that people keep saying they would prefer Myles Turner over Robinson, which I agree but they're both wildly over priced. I keep seeing both of them go for $30 to $36,  or 3rd round. $30 to $36 is what gobert has been going for... Gobert....and he goes in the 2nd round every time from my snake mocks.

I may considering taking a punt blocks approach this year with all the attention that stat is getting. Could probably get a lot more from Collins types while punting blocks than Robinson while not. 

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7 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

Or is his statset just not something you value?

Yes.

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On 8/21/2019 at 8:10 AM, johnval1362 said:

What's interesting about the Mitchell Robinson hype is that people keep saying they would prefer Myles Turner over Robinson, which I agree but they're both wildly over priced. I keep seeing both of them go for $30 to $36,  or 3rd round. $30 to $36 is what gobert has been going for... Gobert....and he goes in the 2nd round every time from my snake mocks.

I may considering taking a punt blocks approach this year with all the attention that stat is getting. Could probably get a lot more from Collins types while punting blocks than Robinson while not. 

 

Well if you start out with Steph and Trae you're at about zero blocks lol so Collins might be a good pick in the 3rd...also fyi Krissy Middleton had zero blocks last year as well (not that you're searching for guys who don't block any shots but his value increases).  

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4 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Well if you start out with Steph and Trae

 

that would be a fun duo to own

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If you're struggling to understand why Mitch is drafted so highly, here is what he did with the last 30 games of the 18-19 season.  

Big_Mitch.jpg.23c18366e5fee0edb6337edc8d8d3e25.jpg

 

That is a lot of value.  What makes you think he takes a big step back in his sophomore season?  

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49 minutes ago, 80version said:

If you're struggling to understand why Mitch is drafted so highly, here is what he did with the last 30 games of the 18-19 season.  

Big_Mitch.jpg.23c18366e5fee0edb6337edc8d8d3e25.jpg

 

That is a lot of value.  What makes you think he takes a big step back in his sophomore season?  

it's a good question and I presume people have answered it before. 

I don't think anybody thinks he will actually become a worse player. Just seems unlikely he will get that extra playing time as he would need to dramatically change his game to become less foul prone (which would probably mean less blocks) and they have stocked up big time in the front court. Those new guys likely also take some of his value away.

Personal opinion is I think it's to much of a risk to put a top pick into a fringe player and it's likely he will get drafted way too close to his ceiling in most cases. Would rather take safe bets for first half of draft and then target value picks after that. Guys like mitch rob, JV, thomas bryant, Nance, Lopez, Powell, brogdon, Isaac, Delon wright, rozier, Dedmon, Derrick White come to mind.

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6 hours ago, 80version said:

If you're struggling to understand why Mitch is drafted so highly, here is what he did with the last 30 games of the 18-19 season.  

Big_Mitch.jpg.23c18366e5fee0edb6337edc8d8d3e25.jpg

 

That is a lot of value.  What makes you think he takes a big step back in his sophomore season?  

his main value is block and fg%(but in low attempt),he reminds me few season ago noel was pre-rank at second round and many people got hyped and trapped

I'm not saying Mitch is another Noel but Mitch pre-rank seems too high for me,NYK frontcourt is deeper than last season,Portis and Gibson also can play small ball center

Edited by kane
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5 hours ago, kane said:

his main value is block

That's also why I don't like his statset. Let's take from him one block and add 4 points, 2 rebs and 0,5 stl, then his value remains the same, but for me he is a much better player like 14/11/0,6ast/1,4 stl/2 blk. This player with good FG% (and more attempts) I would have taken in late 2nd or early 3rd round.

Edited by apatas
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Julius Randle & Taj Gibson have to have a negative effect on him. Hard to block shots from the bench.

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1 hour ago, Gorgeous George said:

Dude can single handedly win you blocks.  I have no issue rolling the dice.

I have played now fantasy basketball 10 seasons. Of course I think you have played more. But during these years I never had an experience where some player won something single-handedly. Always team won not one player.

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4 minutes ago, apatas said:

I have played now fantasy basketball 10 seasons. Of course I think you have played more. But during these years I never had an experience where some player won something single-handedly. Always team won not one player.

You've never had a week where you won blocks 20-18 or something like that, and Gobert had 12ish of them?  I'm sure you have.

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8 minutes ago, Pyschout said:

You've never had a week where you won blocks 20-18 or something like that, and Gobert had 12ish of them?  I'm sure you have.

OK, it is possible, but then maybe one of my guards who usually don't have blocks, suddenly had one and other also one very surprising block. Who wins then - Gobert or these players who gave me additional unexpected blocks? I have one good example. My first year I lost semifinal by score 5:5 (we had 11 cat) and blocks even because I had worse result in regular season. On Sunday his man Kyle Korver had 2 unexpected blocks. And I can say: I lost semifinal only because of Kyle Korver's blocks. That happens sometimesl. Therefore I always count only my whole team result. Every single point, single rebound, block is important. That is my approach, just said it. Also this is a reason why I always try to draft versatile players, not 1-2 category wonders.

Edited by apatas
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I mean okay, but when one guy gives you over half of your production in that cat, "single-handedly winning you that category" is how it's said.  It doesn't mean he supplied 100% of your production in that category, it means that just by having him on your team, you go from being bad in it to being good in it.

You could take it further and say Gobert had 12 of your 20 blocks and you beat the other team 20-11, too, but it's not necessary.

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